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Posted

Fanfest passed without a trade. Great time with lilshep. Play catch in outfield.  Throw in bullpen, take some hacks in the cages. Plenty of autographs (by now he has about 150 baseballs). He hung out with his gf. Showed her his championship rings. Fanfest has gotten crazy with the success of the team. Over 12k showed up.

  • Like 1
Posted
  On 1/27/2019 at 4:54 AM, WBT said:

Yeah but he's better.  If the money's right (it won't be), you unreplace him.  

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I’m not actually convinced that’s true, aside from the nostalgia of Astros fans.

Diaz last year: 102 wRC+, 1.6 WAR

Marwin: 104 wRC+, 1.6 WAR

Their career wRC+ is similar, slight advantage to Diaz: 108 vs 103. Projection for next year, 105 vs 104.

Marwin’s only advantage is his versatility. But the metrics point to him as a bad defender everywhere except the outfield and 1st. Diaz is comparable at SS and better at 3rd. The others, not much of a sample size. But 1) they’re reportedly going to try him some in LF and 2) that versatility isn’t essential with the current roster, between Brantley and Yuli.

I don’t think Marwin’s willingness to stand in more spots in the field is worth paying him anything for this current team. Diaz is a comparable player already in house.

Posted

As days go by without manny/bryce signed, which i think is holding up other players, how long till teams just roll into 2019 with what they got now. I dont see any player getting those huge deals they were expecting 3 years ago. The ways teams are bullt and financially managed has drastically changed in 5 years.

Posted
  On 1/27/2019 at 8:03 PM, Jshep34 said:

As days go by without manny/bryce signed, which i think is holding up other players, how long till teams just roll into 2019 with what they got now. I dont see any player getting those huge deals they were expecting 3 years ago. The ways teams are bullt and financially managed has drastically changed in 5 years.

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I think you’ll see higher per year but shorter term deals. Harper et al know their worth 

Posted

Think the 8-10 year deals are gone. If im bryce or manny i strike a 3 year deal at 30 per. Then at 29/30 go for 4-5 year deal at 25 per. With they way teams are being built thats about the only way they are going to get paid . Itll be interesting once labor deal is up in 2020

Posted (edited)
  On 1/27/2019 at 4:54 AM, WBT said:

Yeah but he's better.  If the money's right (it won't be), you unreplace him.  

Expand  

No he's not better than Diaz.

Diaz is 2 years younger, and most importantly under team control for another 4 seasons.

Diaz in 3 seasons - .783 OPS, 106 OPS+, .332 wOBA, 108 wRC+, 4.5 WAR, 1.3 Def

Marwin in 7 seasons - .737 OPS, 103 OPS+, .319 wOBA, 103 wRC+, 7.8 WAR, -11.9 Def

Marwin is also not better than Brantley.

Marwin has no place on this club anymore.

Keuchel should be resigned if the money can be worked out, but only on a 2-3 year deal. No way Keuchel is getting a 5 year deal from anyone.

Edited by HtownHorn
  • Like 1
Posted
  On 1/28/2019 at 6:51 PM, HtownHorn said:

No he's not better than Diaz.

Diaz is 2 years younger, and most importantly under team control for another 4 seasons.

Diaz in 3 seasons - .783 OPS, 106 OPS+, .332 wOBA, 108 wRC+, 4.5 WAR, 1.3 Def

Marwin in 7 seasons - .737 OPS, 103 OPS+, .319 wOBA, 103 wRC+, 7.8 WAR, -11.9 Def

Marwin is also not better than Brantley.

Marwin has no place on this club anymore.

Keuchel should be resigned if the money can be worked out, but only on a 2-3 year deal. No way Keuchel is getting a 5 year deal from anyone.

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i think it's a little unfair to compare marwin's full career (7 years) because he's definitely become a different player the last 3-4.  i felt comfortable with him being a dangerous hitter in key spots in the playoffs or big regular season games, and he came through on numerous occasions.

that said, he is what he is - a valuable, versatile piece who can play multiple positions and get a key hit for a playoff team.  he's not a rising star, or a regular starter on a top 5 mlb team.  i'm happy with diaz as his replacement, and agree we don't really have a spot for him.

sucks for him that he wasn't a fa a few years ago when zobrist got paid.  this is not the year to be a swiss army knife (marwin) or a soft throwing durable lefty (dk) entering free agency. 

Posted

Kaplan on our hitting coaches.
Definitely a bit unorthodox
Should be interesting

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  • Like 3
Posted (edited)

Top prospect lists are starting to roll out...

Keith Law (ESPN) has: RHP Forrest Whitley (#4), OF Kyle Tucker (#17), RHP Corbin Martin (#48), RHP JB Bukauskas (#67), RHP Josh James (#70). Some snippets:

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MLB Pipeline (Callis & Mayo) has: Whitley (#7), Tucker (#8), Yordan Alvarez (#44), James (#62), Martin (#81), Bukauskas (#97).

Edited by Hank Chinaski
Posted (edited)

I wonder why Law has soured on Alvarez so much.  Also, Martin seems a little high in the top 50 given his K% struggles following his promotion to the Texas League.  

Edited by Fozzz
Posted (edited)
  On 1/30/2019 at 4:49 PM, Fozzz said:

I wonder why Law has soured on Alvarez so much.  Also, Martin seems a little high in the top 50 given his K% struggles following his promotion to the Texas League.  

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Yeah, he hasn't been big on Alvarez for a while. I think he views Alvarez as a 1B/DH-only type and he usually doesn't rate those guys very highly (logic being that if they don't hit a lot, they don't offer any value). I think he's putting out his overviews of each team's system in a few days, will be interesting to see what his thoughts are on Alvarez.

Edited by Hank Chinaski
Posted

According to one report, Keuchel is deciding between Houston, Milwaukee, and Atlanta. It sounded like Houston offered 2 years, Milwaukee 3 years, and the Atlanta offer wasn't listed.

Posted
  On 1/30/2019 at 8:30 PM, Alvin89 said:

According to one report, Keuchel is deciding between Houston, Milwaukee, and Atlanta. It sounded like Houston offered 2 years, Milwaukee 3 years, and the Atlanta offer wasn't listed.

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2 yr with option for Astros deal if you believe some rando in atlanta 

Posted (edited)
  On 1/30/2019 at 9:51 PM, Scraps said:

2 yr with option for Astros deal if you believe some rando in atlanta 

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I'd take that if I'm DK. I believe that gets him through the next CBA, which gives him another crack at free agency under whatever the new rules may be. And if he wins another WS or two, his stock only goes up. 

Edited by Seasick Sailor
Posted (edited)
  On 1/30/2019 at 10:11 PM, Seasick Sailor said:

I'd take that if I'm DK. I believe that gets him through the next CBA, which gives him another crack at free agency under whatever the new rules may be. And if he wins another WS or two, his stock only goes up. 

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His stock isn't likely to go up simply because he's 31, so signing a 2-year deal would make him a FA again at 33 - and teams will be less willing to take a chance on an older pitcher. This is probably his last shot at a contract of longer than 2/3 years. 

But yeah, at some point it could make sense to take a shorter deal with a higher annual salary. I still think he'll sign a 4/5 year deal with somebody, but the longer he remains unsigned, the more likely he is to sign for something like 2 years / $ 45 MM and try free agency again in a couple years. 

Edited by Hank Chinaski
Posted

A buddy of mine was sitting behind Reid Ryan on a plane to Denver yesterday.  He overheard Ryan tell the guy he was sitting next to that Keuchel is asking for a 6-year deal. 

Boras is crazy if he actually thinks any team will sign him for that long.

Posted (edited)
  On 1/31/2019 at 6:49 PM, Planet Houston said:

A buddy of mine was sitting behind Reid Ryan on a plane to Denver yesterday.  He overheard Ryan tell the guy he was sitting next to that Keuchel is asking for a 6-year deal. 

Boras is crazy if he actually thinks any team will sign him for that long.

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that's nuts.  Dallas has had a few season cut short by injury already.  Not a great trend for a 31 year old guy.  Ya, let's sign him until he's 37!

Edited by MAROON
Posted
  On 1/31/2019 at 6:49 PM, Planet Houston said:

A buddy of mine was sitting behind Reid Ryan on a plane to Denver yesterday.  He overheard Ryan tell the guy he was sitting next to that Keuchel is asking for a 6-year deal. 

Boras is crazy if he actually thinks any team will sign him for that long.

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I'm sure he is asking for that. But I doubt anyone is going to give it to him. He's 31, not a hard thrower and has had shoulder and neck issues in the past 3 years. 

I still think he'll end up with something like 4 years / $75-80 MM range. I don't think HOU would be interested at that price.

 

Posted (edited)

He's not negotiating up from 2-3 year deals to that.  Teams know he's had a drop off and it's very unlikely he's ever getting back to what he was a few years ago.  He would have already signed if anyone had offered something like that.

Edited by kevwun

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