2018-2019 Astros Offseason Thread

[runthebone 7932]

19 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

lol, that video is great. Once the bat cracks that ball...

Oh no! no. No. No! NO!!!!

No!!  No!

OH YEAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!

It's like an orange Koolaide man ruining a bunch of Dodgers fan's night. Just greatness. 

 

I like the detail of how Altuve throws his helmet aside for the celebration.  And I still crack up every time there's a picture of him standing next to...pretty much anybody.

[UTexasFight 9376]

lol, that video is great. Once the bat cracks that ball...
Oh no! no. No. No! NO!!!!
No!!  No!
OH YEAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!
It's like an orange Koolaide man ruining a bunch of Dodgers fan's night. Just greatness. 
 

Hahahahaha
Hadn’t thought about the mental image of the kool aid man.

That gutteral YEEAAAHHH is me...a year’s worth of anticipation and excitement (more like lifetime) released upon the realization it may actually happen that night.

I also liked the faint “Darvish, you suck!” You can hear near the end.

[Ilovechickfila 0]

Realmuto should be a high priority as I don't see a blend of defense and offense from any other catcher around the league that are available. No clue on his framing skills or his ability to call games.

I'm in favor of bringing back someone like Carlos Beltran as a coach just to get some of the old magic back. 

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

 

Edited November 1, 2018 by Seasick Sailor

[Hank Chinaski 6310]

3 hours ago, Ilovechickfila said:

Realmuto should be a high priority as I don't see a blend of defense and offense from any other catcher around the league that are available. No clue on his framing skills or his ability to call games.

Grandal or Ramos aren't as good as Realmuto; however, they are both good and wouldn't cost you any prospects. 

So it really comes down to whether the difference in ability between Realmuto and Grandal/Ramos is worth the prospects that you'd lose...with the additional salary to the free agents baked in there too. 

[UTexasFight 9376]

Bukauskas had a rough go his last time out but has been excellent his other three so far in the AFL

[Hank Chinaski 6310]

Some selected write-ups of FAs from Keith Law this morning...

Spoiler

9. Charlie Morton, RHP
2019 age: 35 | B/T: R/R
2018 WAR: 3.5 | Career: 4.8

Morton had the two best seasons of his career in 2017 and 2018, a bargain at $14 million total for Houston, and now hits the market entering his age-35 season with midrotation promise but questions around his durability and the risk associated with a pitcher his age. He works with a four-seamer, sinker and curveball. He managed to close his platoon gap without adding another pitch, getting a ton of swings and misses on the breaking ball against left-handers.

This marked only the second season of his career in which he qualified for the ERA title, with the previous time coming in 2011. Morton did have two scares near the end of 2018, missing one start because of a sore shoulder in late August and leaving a start early in late September when his velocity was down for the same reason. Two years is probably right again, but $14 million per year is a lot more reasonable now than $14 million total.

10. Yasmani Grandal, C
2019 age: 30 | B/T: S/R
2018 WAR: 3.3 | Career: 13.5

Grandal is one of the two or three best pitch-framing catchers in the majors, which drove the Dodgers to acquire him four years ago and has probably added an extra win or two to the team's totals in each year he has been catching. He's also an excellent hitter for a catcher; he was just a rounding error behind J.T. Realmuto among qualified catchers this year for the lead in wOBA and wRC+, and over the past four years only Buster Posey and Gary Sanchezhave higher wRC+ figures among regulars.

What Grandal is not good at, however, is the part of the catcher's job that gives the job its name: catching the ball. He leads baseball in passed balls over the past four years, doesn't block balls well and has a reputation of not working well on game-planning with pitchers. He's also weaker enough hitting from the right side that having a right-handed catcher who can play more than a standard backup makes a lot of sense. Grandal's right-handed swing is long, and he doesn't get to his power the same way that he does from the left side. If you factor in the framing value, he has been a four-win player regularly and was worth somewhere over five wins in 2018.

He'll play at 30 in 2019, not too old for most positions but on the older side for catchers. The market might pay him to keep producing the way he has, but history says he'll probably be less productive or will play less over the next five years than he did the past five. And after an October when his receiving issues were magnified, teams will have to consider how to weigh all that framing value against the other parts of his defensive game.

16. Wilson Ramos, C
2019 age: 31 | B/T: R/R
2018 WAR: 2.7 | Career: 13.3

Ramos was a good framer for years but has been less so the past two seasons, perhaps suffering relative to a league that has in general seen the average level of framing improve. On the plus side, he has become a good bit more patient over the past few years, after I'd written him off as a permanently low-OBP hitter, and he led all catchers in slugging percentage in 2018 (minimum 200 PA) and was third among catchers in 2016, before his knee injury. He's a solid regular behind the plate with some durability concerns, and if this little OBP surge sticks around, there's some chance he could be a 3.5-4.0 WAR player one year.

19. Nelson Cruz, DH
2019 age: 38 | B/T: R/R
2018 WAR: 2.9 | Career: 33.4

I did not see that coming at all: Cruz generated about 16 WAR over his four-year tenure with the Mariners, and even though 2018 was his worst year there, he still hit .256/.342/.509 (unadjusted, which matters for a right-handed power hitter at Safeco). Of course, he's 38 now, cannot play the field and has seen his BABIP decline in three straight years. He had a harder time with good velocity in 2018, and had more trouble with fastballs up in the zone, which you would expect from a hitter who's losing some bat speed as he ages. I'd still give the Boomstick another year to see if he's got one more 40-homer season in him, even at $12 million-$14 million, but his age and lack of defensive value really cap his upside.

35. Marwin Gonzalez, Super-utility
2019 age: 30 | B/T: S/R
2018 WAR: 2.5 | Career: 12.0

Gonzalez has been a sort of Swiss army knife player for the Astros the last few years; in 2018 he played at least 100 innings at first, second, short and left, plus 19 innings at third base, where he's played over 600 innings in his career. He's not particularly good anywhere in the infield, but also not particularly bad anywhere in the infield, making him very useful as a bench piece who won't kill you if he has to play every day. His 2017 power surge -- 23 homers and a .226 ISO -- looks like a fluke at this point, but he has held his improved walk rate and can be a league-average bat. He's a very useful player -- a switch-hitter too -- for so many reasons that even though he may not be your typical regular, he's probably good enough to play 150 games for most teams, and worth giving three or four years if the base salary is modest, at the $8-10 million range.

43. Andrew Miller, LHP
2019 age: 34 | B/T: L/L
2018 WAR: 0.2 | Career: 9.2

Miller was really good for the first three years of the four-year deal he signed with the Yankees, who traded him to Cleveland midway through the second season. He started to break down in 2017 and was a shell of his previous self in 2018, throwing just 34 innings with his worst strikeout and walk rates since Boston first made him a reliever in 2012-13. He hit the DL three times in 2018, due to hamstring, knee and shoulder injuries, the last one being the most worrisome for the 33-year-old (he'll turn 34 in May) who was worked pretty hard in the service of Cleveland's AL pennant in 2016. It's all fastball/slider from Miller now, and both pitches were worse when he did take the mound in 2018, so he should be looking at prove-it one-year deals this offseason.

 

 

 

[henrygandorf 29174]

man did anyone cost himself more money the last 12-18 months than andrew miller?  he lost millions.

[Amos Moses 795]

1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

man did anyone cost himself more money the last 12-18 months than andrew miller?  he lost millions.

Harper?

[henrygandorf 29174]

harper is gonna get paid just fine.  his counting numbers straightened out, and he's young enough to get 7-10 years from somebody.

meanwhile miller is gonna get a one year deal to prove that he's healthy and relevant.

[Mez2 4021]

josh donaldson?

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

 

[texashorne 1177]

Gonna miss Marwin.. 

[henrygandorf 29174]

what's especially frustrating about marwin, is that he's not the type of player that goes to a mid-level/trending up type of team to start everyday.  he might get that offer, but that's not the best use of what he does.  he'll end up getting offers from contenders who will use him like we did, and i would assume that's where he ends up.  which means we'll likely have to deal with him the next few years in the postseason.  hopefully he goes to the nl.  

[Mez2 4021]

we'll just throw curveballs in the dirt to him and let him strike out

[Snake Diggity 4614]

1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

what's especially frustrating about marwin, is that he's not the type of player that goes to a mid-level/trending up type of team to start everyday.  he might get that offer, but that's not the best use of what he does.  he'll end up getting offers from contenders who will use him like we did, and i would assume that's where he ends up.  which means we'll likely have to deal with him the next few years in the postseason.  hopefully he goes to the nl.  

One good thing is when I think about facing any of the free agents, I’m not scared of any of them.  Our offense would rock Keuchel.  Marwin ain’t doing damage against our pitchers.  Really Morton is the one guy I don’t want to play against, and that’s just because he’s so likable.

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

This is disappointing:

 

[Hank Chinaski 6310]

17 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

This is disappointing:

 

I'm trying to think through the QO strategy...

Can the Astros still sign him if they offer a QO and he rejects it? I assume so, but I believe that during the QO consideration period (10 days) other teams can negotiate...

Anyway, here is my thought:

(1) Morton is unlikely to accept a QO because this is probably his last contract and I'm sure he wants more than a year (even at a high salary);

(2) Astros not extending QO - is there an advantage to not doing a QO if they want to re-sign him? e.g., does it better position them to sign him to a 2-year deal by not offering QO? This is where I am fuzzy on all the implications. 

(3) If the answer to #2 above is "no," then they must not want to bring him back, because, all things being equal, you give the QO and either get him for a year or a draft pick. 

Does this logic make sense?

 

[Guadaloopy 10918]

I think the Astros are not offering the QO because it would be insulting to CFM as it would undercut his ability to make money on a 2/yr deal.  Sure, he could sign a 1 yr deal for $17.9M, but what are the odds that he'd get another shot at a one year deal of more than $10M?  I'm sure the Astros have been working behind the scenes with Morton on this one, and my guess is that they will offer a two year contract that pays him $15M per year.

Unless his shoulder is worse than advertised, which the Astros would know.

Edited November 2, 2018 by Guadaloopy

[Guadaloopy 10918]

Speaking of arm injuries... With the epidemic of TJ surgeries and major shoulder issues in MLB, does it worry anyone else to see our prime pitching prospects continuing to play in the AFL?

Let the kids rest. 

[David Dennison 18652]

2 hours ago, Mez2 said:

we'll just throw curveballs in the dirt to him and let him strike out

I love Marwin, but this is the right answer.

[Mo Horn 8807]

So a qualifying offer given to Dallas but not to Charlie? I would have done the opposite. 

[Ichabod 184]

Yeah but don't we get draft picks from unaccepted QO's?

[Guadaloopy 10918]

The only reason no QO for Charlie is that the Astros are working on a longer deal... or Charlie is broken and about to retire.  

[IDIOTsavant 8437]

1 hour ago, Guadaloopy said:

Speaking of arm injuries... With the epidemic of TJ surgeries and major shoulder issues in MLB, does it worry anyone else to see our prime pitching prospects continuing to play in the AFL?

Let the kids rest. 

The ones you'd worry about (Whitley and Bukauskas) didn't get too many innings this year due to a suspension and injuries. It's a good way to build up innings so the jump in innings next year is smaller.

[Scraps 13540]

Chris Hermann yo!

[IDIOTsavant 8437]

Looked it up. Going into the AFL, Whitley had only thrown 26.1 innings, and Bukauskas was at 59 IP.

[UTexasFight 9376]

Yeah answers have already been said, but:
-Whitley and JB went to the AFL to get more work in not to “showcase their talents”
- Dallas is looking for long-term deal.
Give the QO to get the draft pick
-$18 is too much to CFM for one year and, yes, astros likely want him for two, so don’t extend QO in case he decides to accept. Meanwhile negotiate for a 2 year deal.

[henrygandorf 29174]

1 hour ago, Guadaloopy said:

The only reason no QO for Charlie is that the Astros are working on a longer deal... or Charlie is broken and about to retire.  

this is where i am.  you make the qo if you think the guy is definitely going to sign elsewhere.  if that's not a concern here, then there's no reason to offer it (i would hope/assume).  i seriously doubt it's because we're scared he'd accept it (unless he's injured).

[Hank Chinaski 6310]

1 hour ago, Mo Horn said:

So a qualifying offer given to Dallas but not to Charlie? I would have done the opposite. 

Have to give QO to Keuchel to get the draft pick when he signs elsewhere. That one is a no-brainer. 

[Snake Diggity 4614]

Pretty sure Morton is hurt.  It’s the only reason they wouldn’t extend him the QO.  This front office places an extremely high value on draft picks.  They also arent going to do a player any favors at their own expense.  I predict Morton retires.

[tx 3 putt 76314]

he finished the season hurt, no doubt 

[UTexasFight 9376]

Our comp pick will be after the 2nd round

In six seasons, only five players have accepted the qualifying offers out of the 73 issued by major league teams.

Keuchel, who was 12-11 with a 3.74 ERA in 34 starts in 2018, made $13.2 million last season.

The Astros, however, chose not to make offers to right-hander Charlie Morton or utilityman Marwin Gonzalez. Morton should be sought after in a pitching-hungry market. The right-hander was 15-3 with a 3.13 ERA in 30 starts for the Astros in the regular season.

"I've put everything into the Astros, so I fully expected to get one," Keuchel said, according to MLB.com. "I'm a little shocked Marwin and Charlie didn't get one. That's what they felt like, so we'll see within the next 10 days. I would assume we'll turn it down and look at other offers and figure out what's best."

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25159693/houston-astros-lhp-dallas-keuchel-washington-nationals-bryce-harper-receive-qualifying-offers

[David Dennison 18652]

8 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Our comp pick will be after the 2nd round

In six seasons, only five players have accepted the qualifying offers out of the 73 issued by major league teams.

Keuchel, who was 12-11 with a 3.74 ERA in 34 starts in 2018, made $13.2 million last season.

The Astros, however, chose not to make offers to right-hander Charlie Morton or utilityman Marwin Gonzalez. Morton should be sought after in a pitching-hungry market. The right-hander was 15-3 with a 3.13 ERA in 30 starts for the Astros in the regular season.

"I've put everything into the Astros, so I fully expected to get one," Keuchel said, according to MLB.com. "I'm a little shocked Marwin and Charlie didn't get one. That's what they felt like, so we'll see within the next 10 days. I would assume we'll turn it down and look at other offers and figure out what's best."

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25159693/houston-astros-lhp-dallas-keuchel-washington-nationals-bryce-harper-receive-qualifying-offers

I'm not clear as to why he thinks the Astros would have given Marwin a qualifying offer.

[Fudge Nuggets 19146]

4 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

he finished the season hurt, no doubt 

Even though he may only play for the Astros for two years, he’ll always be one of my favorites from now on.

[WBT 20415]

Saw this in a weekly AFL writeup on The Athletic:

Quote

Player of the Week: Abraham Toro, 3B, Astros 
42 AB, 15 H, 11 R, 4 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI (11 games)

Although Abraham Toro’s profile isn’t particularly eye-catching outside of a plus arm, the 21-year-old Double-A infielder is making an early statement at the plate in Arizona.

Signed out of Seminole State Jr. College as the Astros fifth-round pick in 2016, Toro, a native of Quebec, has found success through tweaks at the plate, including an adjustment to his lower half that added more power to his contact.

Between High-A and Double-A in 2018, Toro knocked 16 home runs, a single-season career best. A switch hitter, Toro isn’t structured for power, but his eye has been decent despite suffering a spike in his strikeout rate when he arrived in Double-A.

Although he’s hit just one home run in his 11 games, Toro’s offense for the fall has been promising and his 15 hits overall land him second on Scottsdale’s roster. He has the ingredients to work with and the added reps he’ll receive out west will be a valuable investment into the 21-year-old’s future.

The Astros may have their own Ben Emond some day

[Snake Diggity 4614]

1 hour ago, WBT said:

Saw this in a weekly AFL writeup on The Athletic:

The Astros may have their own Ben Emond some day

Toro is a really good prospect.  All the Astros playing in the AFL are showing well.  Dawson is showing much higher defensive/base running upside than previously thought.  Toro is hitting really well, and showing an elite arm and good glove.  Pinales is showing high 90s stuff with movement.  Whitley and Bukauskas have been dominant.  Thornton is showing an elite CB and great velocity.

[Mez2 4021]

15 hours ago, Mo Horn said:

So a qualifying offer given to Dallas but not to Charlie? I would have done the opposite. 

because we're probably going to offer him a 2 year contract worth around $30 mil, IMO

[Hank Chinaski 6310]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Toro is a really good prospect.  All the Astros playing in the AFL are showing well.  Dawson is showing much higher defensive/base running upside than previously thought.  Toro is hitting really well, and showing an elite arm and good glove.  Pinales is showing high 90s stuff with movement.  Whitley and Bukauskas have been dominant.  Thornton is showing an elite CB and great velocity.

Yeah I think I read that Dawson dropped some weight and he's gotten a little faster. Not sure his hit tool is strong enough to make it as a regular (he struck out at a 26% clip in A+ in '18, 28% in AA), but he's athletic, so he's got a chance.

Toro-Hernandez looks like he has some pop. He struggled in his first 200 PAs in AA, but that isn't a big red flag or anything. 

[runthebone 7932]

20 hours ago, Mez2 said:

we'll just throw curveballs in the dirt to him and let him strike out

On a knee. 

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

 

[WBT 20415]

 

[runthebone 7932]

3 hours ago, Seasick Sailor said:

 

He had the Cocaine Mets so mindfucked that year.

[Guadaloopy 10918]

3 hours ago, WBT said:

 

They’ve even got some mini Crawford Boxes set up for him.  

[UTexasFight 9376]

[Rustic Horn 929]

 

[Scraps 13540]

Keuchel won the GG so I guess that’s cool

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

 

[Guadaloopy 10918]

1 hour ago, Seasick Sailor said:

 

That’s a big loss.  Does not give the warm fuzzy.

[UTexasFight 9376]

Mejdal, Fast, AAA coach for no reason...I’m sure there are others I’m missing.


At least we’ll always have 2017!