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2018-2019 Astros Offseason Thread

Planet Houston

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Planet Houston
Planet Houston

Well, it just wasn't in the cards this year.  A combination of great play by the BoSox, the injury bug, inopportune cold streaks and inability to put batters away with 2 outs resulted in an early exit

Seasick Sailor
Seasick Sailor

Thanks for the memories:

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

am i the only one having trouble understanding wtf this means?

Seasick Sailor

Seasick Sailor 3747

Posted
Posted (edited)

https://climbingtalshill.com/2018/11/05/astros-analysis-examining-unluckiest-hitter-xwoba/

Astros Analysis: Examining the Unluckiest Hitter by xwOBA:

 

Batted ball data from MLB’s Statcast is still relatively new to the analysis scene, but it does provide helpful hints on how a hitter is performing by underlying numbers.

One of the key metrics from Statcast that I find particularly interesting is expected weighted on-base average, otherwise known as xwOBA. Per the definition provided by MLB.com, xwOBA is calculated by using launch angles and exit velocity. Essentially, the metric attempts to measure a hitter’s quality of contact.

Craig Edwards of FanGraphs and Jonathan Judge of Baseball Prospectus within the last six months have released helpful studies on the matter, exclusively in how xBA and xwOBA apply to pitchers in Judge’s own analysis. As noted by Edwards, there is still a learning curve on how to properly utilize the stat. But he does note that the stat appears to hold “some predictive value” for hitters. For this one brief post, I’d liked to examine the one Astros’ hitter who had the “unluckiest” season based on actual wOBA and expected wOBA.

The answer: top prospect Kyle Tucker.

We’re all familiar with Tucker’s lackluster results in 2018. Throughout 72 plate appearances in 28 games, the Astros‘ prospect finished the season with a .141/.236/.203 slash line with a 28 wRC+. Not a great debut based on the surface level stats. But it is wise to look beyond surface level stats and dig deeper to find some positive indications from Tucker’s first look at major league pitching.

Out of all Houston hitters with at least 50 batted ball results, Tucker came in with the lowest wOBA (.206) of any player on the team. He also finished with the most significant discrepancy between his wOBA and xwOBA (-.118).

Table 1. wOBA-xwOBA

wOBA     xwOBA
.208         .326

Based on his quality of contact, Tucker should’ve been a much better hitter than what common metrics show. While 72 plate appearances is a small sample, his .326 xwOBA was the fourth-highest among Houston hitters. If you were to lower the minimum batted ball results to 25, you’d find that Tucker also had the highest average exit velocity (90 MPH) on all plays that ended with an out recorded. When he made contact, the ball wasn’t hit all that soft. Out of all Astros’ hitters with at least 20 plate appearances, Tucker finished the fourth-lowest soft hit percentage (13.7%). There was hard contact. His low .176 BABIP in the majors last season help verify this theory that he just ran into some bad luck.

Although the peripherals show that Tucker should’ve performed better than his actual results, there is a portion of the fan base ready to write him off. That’s not wise as Tucker will likely be a productive major league player, sooner or later. Remember that he will enter his age-22 season by the time spring training rolls around. Sure, he had a 155 wRC+ in the hitter-friendly Pacific League this year, but his results remain impressive. Alas, his future in Houston depends on the outcome of the upcoming offseason based on certain trade rumors. No matter of the uniform he wears, I am expecting good things out of Tucker in the near future.
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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6310

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Seasick Sailor said:

https://climbingtalshill.com/2018/11/05/astros-analysis-examining-unluckiest-hitter-xwoba/

Astros Analysis: Examining the Unluckiest Hitter by xwOBA:

  Hide contents

Batted ball data from MLB’s Statcast is still relatively new to the analysis scene, but it does provide helpful hints on how a hitter is performing by underlying numbers.

One of the key metrics from Statcast that I find particularly interesting is expected weighted on-base average, otherwise known as xwOBA. Per the definition provided by MLB.com, xwOBA is calculated by using launch angles and exit velocity. Essentially, the metric attempts to measure a hitter’s quality of contact.

Craig Edwards of FanGraphs and Jonathan Judge of Baseball Prospectus within the last six months have released helpful studies on the matter, exclusively in how xBA and xwOBA apply to pitchers in Judge’s own analysis. As noted by Edwards, there is still a learning curve on how to properly utilize the stat. But he does note that the stat appears to hold “some predictive value” for hitters. For this one brief post, I’d liked to examine the one Astros’ hitter who had the “unluckiest” season based on actual wOBA and expected wOBA.

The answer: top prospect Kyle Tucker.

We’re all familiar with Tucker’s lackluster results in 2018. Throughout 72 plate appearances in 28 games, the Astros‘ prospect finished the season with a .141/.236/.203 slash line with a 28 wRC+. Not a great debut based on the surface level stats. But it is wise to look beyond surface level stats and dig deeper to find some positive indications from Tucker’s first look at major league pitching.

Out of all Houston hitters with at least 50 batted ball results, Tucker came in with the lowest wOBA (.206) of any player on the team. He also finished with the most significant discrepancy between his wOBA and xwOBA (-.118).

Table 1. wOBA-xwOBA

wOBA     xwOBA
.208         .326

Based on his quality of contact, Tucker should’ve been a much better hitter than what common metrics show. While 72 plate appearances is a small sample, his .326 xwOBA was the fourth-highest among Houston hitters. If you were to lower the minimum batted ball results to 25, you’d find that Tucker also had the highest average exit velocity (90 MPH) on all plays that ended with an out recorded. When he made contact, the ball wasn’t hit all that soft. Out of all Astros’ hitters with at least 20 plate appearances, Tucker finished the fourth-lowest soft hit percentage (13.7%). There was hard contact. His low .176 BABIP in the majors last season help verify this theory that he just ran into some bad luck.

Although the peripherals show that Tucker should’ve performed better than his actual results, there is a portion of the fan base ready to write him off. That’s not wise as Tucker will likely be a productive major league player, sooner or later. Remember that he will enter his age-22 season by the time spring training rolls around. Sure, he had a 155 wRC+ in the hitter-friendly Pacific League this year, but his results remain impressive. Alas, his future in Houston depends on the outcome of the upcoming offseason based on certain trade rumors. No matter of the uniform he wears, I am expecting good things out of Tucker in the near future.

Yup - no reason to be anxious about Tucker based on 72 PAs. He hit a few more balls on the ground or right into the defense than what will likely turn out to be "normal" for him over a handful of PAs. 

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14469

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If McCullers has surgery then his spot on the 40 can be used, as he would be put on the 60 day DL, which doesn't count against the 40 man roster, it's likely that both he and Martes will both be on the 60 man DL and we can use their spots on the 40, as both are going to be out the entire year.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

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Posted
1 hour ago, HtownHorn said:

If McCullers has surgery then his spot on the 40 can be used, as he would be put on the 60 day DL, which doesn't count against the 40 man roster, it's likely that both he and Martes will both be on the 60 man DL and we can use their spots on the 40, as both are going to be out the entire year.

I don’t think you can place someone on the 60 day DL until March, so Martes and McCullers will occupy 40 man spots all offseason.  It’s why Jandel Gustave was outrighted instead of 60 day’ed.  But once the deadline passes, yes, those 2 40 man spots will be open.

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14469

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56 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I don’t think you can place someone on the 60 day DL until March, so Martes and McCullers will occupy 40 man spots all offseason.  It’s why Jandel Gustave was outrighted instead of 60 day’ed.  But once the deadline passes, yes, those 2 40 man spots will be open.

Thanks for the clarification.

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Seasick Sailor

Seasick Sailor 3747

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Note on Whitley's performance in the AFL All-Star game:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/velocity-ramps-up-at-arizona-fall-league-2018-fall-stars-game/

Whitley, arguably the top pitching prospect in the minor leagues, used a five-pitch mix (fastball, cutter, slider, curveball and changeup) in holding the West scoreless over his two innings. His command was a little off as he walked two batters, but the  21-year-old righthander did not give up a hit and struck out one batter. Like Pearson, he was a little surprised to hear that he had hit 100 mph, remarking that it was the first time he had done so since his high school career.

"I felt really good and my body felt great,” Whitley said. "The location and the command were a little sporadic, but that’s fine. In a game like this you’re trying to go out and show your best stuff … There was definitely a little added adrenaline being on TV with the short outing … that’s always nice to pitch with adrenaline. It’s always fun.”

Wrapping up the 2018 season in which he pitched in only eight games because of injury and a PED suspension, Whitley has accomplished the goals that the Astros identified for him.

"Get the slider and curveball in the zone,” Whitley said. "I can get those down to the floor pretty easily, but getting those in the zone and letting the hitter know I can throw it for a strike and a ball.”

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Mez2

Mez2 4021

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fuck - good thing it's in the NL and that's about what i thought he would sign for; not surprising it's with LA though. they seem to have all sorts of guys who play different positions (Kike, taylor, bellinger) but Roberts tends to fuck himself when it comes to managing a playoff game/roster. 

at least this didnt get drawn out and can plan accordingly on our end

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9376

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I think Morton is hurt or they would have worked out a deal with him.  Sonny Gray looks like someone who the Astros could improve.  He has nice spin on his pitches, and he could benefit from ditching the sinker.  

That would be interesting.
And if it worked, another feather in Luhnow’s cap for not getting caught up in the hysteria last year around him that resulted in the Yankees giving up their then 4th, 8th and 12th best prospects.
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Seasick Sailor

Seasick Sailor 3747

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I'm not ready to give up hope that a deal with Charlie will get done. 

Gray does fit the mold for pitchers the Astros will sign and improve. Great spin. Throws his two-seam FB more than is four-seam fastball despite having better spin on the four-seamer. 

 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

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god the yankees would be so pissed if we scooped him up on the cheap and fixed him.  it would be worth it just for that.

we're looking for a 3/4 guy anyway, not a potential ace.  like in the old days when the cards would grab a kyle lohse guy late and he would end up with a respectable season.  that's what we need.

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Mez2

Mez2 4021

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The 2018 Houston Astros’ pitching staff wasn’t quite the best in modern baseball, but it was pretty darn close. The staff recorded more strikeouts than any team in history (10.4 K per nine innings, for a total of 1687). Their 130 ERA+—30% better than the average pitching staff, adjusted for scoring environment and opponents—was the eighth-best since the game integrated in 1947. They became the first team since the 1919 Cincinnati Reds to record a sub-1.1 WHIP. And even in an age of historically heavy bullpen use, the bulk of this success came from their rotation. The Astros’ starters pitched more than those of any team in baseball other than the Cleveland Indians—5.9 innings per game, on average, compared to a league average of 5.4. Houston’s rotation resulted in one nominee for the AL Cy Young Award in Justin Verlander, and it could have very easily had another one in Gerrit Cole.

Outside of Verlander and Cole, though, the rotation’s future is unclear. At the end of the season, Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton became free agents, and earlier this week, the team announced that Lance McCullers, Jr. has undergone Tommy John surgery and miss all of 2019. As a result, Houston’s winter plans are looking a little more complicated than they were previously.

TAYLER: How Should the Yankees Fix Their Pitching Staff?

McCullers worked as the team’s fifth starter for most of this season, but he didn’t bear much resemblance to the idea of a typical No. 5. (Hey, someonehas to hold down the last spot for one of modern baseball’s strongest crews.) In 2018, he continued to serve as the poster-child for the curveball’s current dominance—46.5% of his pitches, a higher proportion than any other starting pitcher—and his strikeout rate was among the top ten in the American League. The 25-year-old’s health was a concern, as it’s been for most of his career; he missed almost all of August and September with a strained forearm muscle, and though he returned to work out of the bullpen in the postseason, he told reporters afterwards that he’d been “pitching through some stuff.” His 128 ⅓ innings pitched this season were still a career high, after his struggles with elbow and shoulder injuries in years past. His Tommy John surgery perhaps isn’t necessarily a surprise, but it’s undoubtedly a serious blow for the 2019 Astros.

“I think our goal is going to be looking at all the different alternatives—including trade, free agency and our own guys—as a way to fill the rotation,” Houston GM Jeff Luhnow told reporters. So what, exactly, might that look like?

STAYING IN-HOUSE

If Keuchel and Morton both depart in free agency—Keuchel was tagged with a qualifying offer; Morton was not—here’s what the depth chart might look like:

1. Justin Verlander

2. Gerrit Cole

3. Collin McHugh

4. Josh James

5. Brad Peacock or Framber Valdez

Verlander and Cole makes for a remarkably strong one-two punch, which should alleviate most concerns over the back half of the rotation. Still: Those concerns are present, and valid. McHugh-James-Peacock isn’t quite the Morton-Keuchel-McCullers, trio of 2017. Both McHugh and Peacock are former starters who made the full-time switch to the bullpen in 2018; McHugh’s potential return to the rotation was being discussed even before McCullers’ injury, and he seems like a smart bet to convert, with a stronger history as a starter than Peacock’s.

image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn-s3.si.com%2F
Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

James dazzled in a brief showing as a rookie last season, with a nasty changeup and a fastball that can touch triple digits. (It touched 102 mph in relief in the playoffs, though it usually sits at 97-98 mph.) James made three starts this year, allowing four runs in 15 IP for a 2.35 ERA, with six walks and 19 strikeouts. Finally, if there’s no conversion back to the rotation for Peacock, the last spot will likely be filled by another one of last year’s rookies, Valdez. In five starts, Valdez allowed seven runs in 24 IP for a 2.59 ERA, with 18 walks and 20 strikeouts. Forrest Whitley, arguably the top pitching prospects in baseball might appear later in the 2019 season as an additional option. The 21-year-old spent last season in Double-A, though he missed time both for an oblique injury and a suspension for violating drug policy.

BAUMGAERTNER: Dodgers Fans Should Be Thankful for Dave Roberts

It’s a fair pathway, but it’s not an especially solid one for a team that’s expecting to be a strong contender right out of the gate. Moving McHugh and Peacock would leave holes to fill in the bullpen, which is a problem of its own. James is certainly thrilling; Valdez, too, had some remarkably strong work in his debut year, but neither was viewed as a top organizational prospect entering last season, and relying on either one for a rotation spot to start the year might not be the most secure move. In other words: Filling the rotation internally could be good, but it probably won’t be quite good enough.  

 

LOOKING ELSEWHERE

It's more likely that Houston will look to acquire at least one pitcher this winter either in free agency or by trade. And given that both Verlander and Cole will become free agents after next season, it might make sense for them to invest in a top-tier starter for the long haul.

The most obvious candidate for that would be Patrick Corbin, who represents the top starting pitcher on the market. The 29-year-old lefty is coming off a career-best season, with a 137 ERA+ and 30% strikeout rate. There’s World Series hero Nathan Eovaldi, who blossomed after his midseason trade to Boston. Or Japan’s Yusei Kikuchi, who’s likely to be the next high-profile player to jump from Nippon Professional Baseball to MLB. The 27-year-old has a 73–46 record with a 2.77 ERA after eight seasons in Japan.

If Houston doesn’t want to spring for a splashier multi-year deal, there’s a slew of options who would be best suited for a less lucrative commitment. Think Hyun-jin Ryu, J.A. Happ, or Lance Lynn. The Astros’ development and deployment of Morton might be a hint here, too: They picked him up at a relatively low cost and made him into a different pitcher, with a better developed curveball and less reliance on his sinker.

In any event, the timing of McCullers’ surgery is something of a blessing: The Astros have time to figure it out

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mycox

mycox 582

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Mez2 said:

we're getting goldschmidt!

That would be huge. Possibly a better lineup than the 2017 season.

Springer
Bregman
Altuve
Goldschmidt
Correa
Tucker
Reddick
unknown catcher
Kemp at DH, but need an upgrade

Edited by mycox
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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

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Goldschmidt for Framber Valdez, Derek Fisher, and AJ Reed would give Arizona cheap replacements for Corbin, Pollock, and Goldy.  That may seem like a light package but a rental 1B on a $14M salary just doesn’t carry much surplus value no matter how good he is.

 

Houston’s lineup with Goldy and Wilson Ramos would be sick:

CF Springer

3B Bregman

2B Altuve

SS Correa

1B Goldschmidt 

C Ramos

LF Tucker

DH Gurriel/White

RF Reddick

 

Edited by Snake Diggity
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