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2018-2019 Astros Offseason Thread

Planet Houston

By Planet Houston
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Planet Houston
Planet Houston

Well, it just wasn't in the cards this year.  A combination of great play by the BoSox, the injury bug, inopportune cold streaks and inability to put batters away with 2 outs resulted in an early exit

Seasick Sailor
Seasick Sailor

Thanks for the memories:

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

am i the only one having trouble understanding wtf this means?

Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4714

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, HtownHorn said:

I heard today on Sirius XM that the Astros and Mariners are in Paxton talks. I think a package similar to Cole would get it done due to his extensive injury history and 2 years of team control left.

Josh James = Joe Musgrove 

Dean Deetz = Michael Feliz

Ronnie Dawson = Jason Martin

Derek Fisher = Colin Moran

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ckhorn

ckhorn 226

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Yeah, I think everyone here takes that deal. James hurts the most, but Paxton would be a 3rd #1.

You have to give up somebody, but James looks MLB ready out of the bullpen or rotation. I think he could give us 150+ next season.

Giving up on Fisher could hurt also. Would rather go after the DB's pitcher. Paxton is terrific, but when has pitched through a complete season.

Do it.

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6349

Posted
Posted

Schoenfield (ESPN) speculated on this trade possibility this morning - would you do it?

Miami Marlins trade C J.T. Realmuto to the Houston Astrosfor OF Yordan Alvarez, LHP Framber Valdez and RHP J.B. Bukauskas.

The Marlins will ask for Kyle Tucker or Forrest Whitley. They won't get either one, but they'll get three good prospects if they're willing to part with their All-Star catcher, who has two seasons of team control left.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 55862

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Schoenfield (ESPN) speculated on this trade possibility this morning - would you do it?

Miami Marlins trade C J.T. Realmuto to the Houston Astrosfor OF Yordan Alvarez, LHP Framber Valdez and RHP J.B. Bukauskas.

The Marlins will ask for Kyle Tucker or Forrest Whitley. They won't get either one, but they'll get three good prospects if they're willing to part with their All-Star catcher, who has two seasons of team control left.

Shit, that might be better than the package the Marlins got for Yelich, and he was 1) better than JTR and 2) locked in for longer.

Jeter would do that in a heartbeat.

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Seasick Sailor

Seasick Sailor 3747

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Schoenfield (ESPN) speculated on this trade possibility this morning - would you do it?

Miami Marlins trade C J.T. Realmuto to the Houston Astrosfor OF Yordan Alvarez, LHP Framber Valdez and RHP J.B. Bukauskas.

The Marlins will ask for Kyle Tucker or Forrest Whitley. They won't get either one, but they'll get three good prospects if they're willing to part with their All-Star catcher, who has two seasons of team control left.

I'd really like to know what our rotation is going to look like before trading away Valdez and Bukauskas. We may need Valdez in '19 and may need both along with Whitley in '20 depending on what happens with JV and Cole next off season. 

Edited by Seasick Sailor
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Mitch Hedberg

Mitch Hedberg 2117

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I'd use Alvarez in a package for Goldy before JTR. We need to find some power at first whether it's waiting on Alvarez, Beer, ? or trading for some. Grandal or Ramos in FA are enough offense upgrade if we can sign one. Love to have JTR but that package might be a tad steep. On the other hand, young hitting catchers are scarce as hens teeth so I wouldn't have a major problem with it either.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4714

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Schoenfield (ESPN) speculated on this trade possibility this morning - would you do it?

Miami Marlins trade C J.T. Realmuto to the Houston Astrosfor OF Yordan Alvarez, LHP Framber Valdez and RHP J.B. Bukauskas.

The Marlins will ask for Kyle Tucker or Forrest Whitley. They won't get either one, but they'll get three good prospects if they're willing to part with their All-Star catcher, who has two seasons of team control left.

That is a fair trade and Houston can absorb that prospect loss due to their pitching depth and the fact that Alvarez was a defensively limited prospect.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 55862

Posted
Posted

I don't really have a lot trust in framing stats, but Realmuto comes out bad to mediocre in framing, which now that no one steals bases any more, is about 90% of a catcher's defensive value.

He'll also be 28 next season, so I think we saw the best bat of his career last season.

I'd guess the Astros will be smart enough not to way overpay for that, so he'll get traded elsewhere.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4714

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27 minutes ago, Mitch Hedberg said:

I'd use Alvarez in a package for Goldy before JTR. We need to find some power at first whether it's waiting on Alvarez, Beer, ? or trading for some. Grandal or Ramos in FA are enough offense upgrade if we can sign one. Love to have JTR but that package might be a tad steep. On the other hand, young hitting catchers are scarce as hens teeth so I wouldn't have a major problem with it either.

I don’t think Goldschmidt has that much value.  Rental 1B don’t have a ton of value no matter how good they are.  Corbin Martin (or another good 2nd tier pitching prospect) and AJ Reed should be enough for Goldschmidt.

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6349

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2 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

Shit, that might be better than the package the Marlins got for Yelich, and he was 1) better than JTR and 2) locked in for longer.

Jeter would do that in a heartbeat.

Shit, I remember telling my brother that we should trade Tucker for Yelich last offseason...then the Brewers got him for less than that a few days later. Ugh. 

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6349

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Seasick Sailor said:

I'd really like to know what our rotation is going to look like before trading away Valdez and Bukauskas. We may need Valdez in '19 and may need both along with Whitley in '20 depending on what happens with JV and Cole next off season. 

This is where I'm at. Right now, you have Verlander and Cole and then some combo of Framber, McHugh, James, maybe Perez, Whitley, etc. Then guys like Martin and Bukauskas getting close. Then you likely lose Verlander and Cole after next season. McCullers is probably back in 2020 but who knows what his role may be then. 

So...they have to be pretty careful parting with 2 guys out of that group, because they aren't all going to pan out. 

 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29225

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re: realmuto - i think the window of getting him in a trade that makes sense may have passed.  i hate to send viable prospects that way for 2 years of his bat when (a) the astros don't need offensive production out of the catcher (considering what we have at 2b, ss, 3b, etc) and (b) there are actually decent free agents out there, which there aren't always.  i really wanted in on yelich (even before the breakout) and realmuto during the fire sale.  that shit is probably over.

re: goldschmidt - if he doesn't get traded, i wouldn't be surprised if we go after him in july (or even pull a beltran and negotiate in june).  i don't see the need to overpay for him now, when the prices change so drastically a few months into the season.  we don't need him in an astros uniform for us to be in playoff position in mid july.  i would like to see us add 1-2 starters (depending on morty) and possibly a reliever before next season, although i like how the pen looks right now.  otherwise, i don't hate the idea of waiting.  these guys know what they're doing.  we made plays for harper, castellanos, a.garcia, and others a few months in.

re: stubbs - assuming we sign someone new to catch, where does he fit into our future plans?  it seems like he gets thrown into every trade or potential trade.  he's a nice piece, but if he's not considerably better than stassi, i'm wondering what the point is.  what are his defensive metrics?  i know he projects at slightly above average as a hitter, which is saying next to nothing.  i don't know if he ever makes it into an astros uniform, as he seems "blocked" by nobody in particular.  and he's 25 years old.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4714

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Posted
4 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

re: realmuto - i think the window of getting him in a trade that makes sense may have passed.  i hate to send viable prospects that way for 2 years of his bat when (a) the astros don't need offensive production out of the catcher (considering what we have at 2b, ss, 3b, etc) and (b) there are actually decent free agents out there, which there aren't always.  i really wanted in on yelich (even before the breakout) and realmuto during the fire sale.  that shit is probably over.

re: goldschmidt - if he doesn't get traded, i wouldn't be surprised if we go after him in july (or even pull a beltran and negotiate in june).  i don't see the need to overpay for him now, when the prices change so drastically a few months into the season.  we don't need him in an astros uniform for us to be in playoff position in mid july.  i would like to see us add 1-2 starters (depending on morty) and possibly a reliever before next season, although i like how the pen looks right now.  otherwise, i don't hate the idea of waiting.  these guys know what they're doing.  we made plays for harper, castellanos, a.garcia, and others a few months in.

re: stubbs - assuming we sign someone new to catch, where does he fit into our future plans?  it seems like he gets thrown into every trade or potential trade.  he's a nice piece, but if he's not considerably better than stassi, i'm wondering what the point is.  what are his defensive metrics?  i know he projects at slightly above average as a hitter, which is saying next to nothing.  i don't know if he ever makes it into an astros uniform, as he seems "blocked" by nobody in particular.  and he's 25 years old.

Stubbs is an above average defender and has plus speed for a catcher.  He also rarely strikes out.  But he hits for zero power and is absolutely tiny for a catcher.  From where I sit he is a platoon catcher at best.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9812

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Posted
Surely the scouting report on #7 was more than "zero power," even if home was the Dome, right?

I said “a bit”...
yes, the scouting report was more than zero power.
Biggio was a first rounder for a reason (Stubbs was 8th fwiw)

For grins, and because it’s the offseason, I found this write up on Biggio’s prospect days:
https://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/1/24/3908738/houston-astros-prospect-retrospective-craig-biggio
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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19453

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

re: realmuto - i think the window of getting him in a trade that makes sense may have passed.  i hate to send viable prospects that way for 2 years of his bat when (a) the astros don't need offensive production out of the catcher (considering what we have at 2b, ss, 3b, etc) and (b) there are actually decent free agents out there, which there aren't always.  i really wanted in on yelich (even before the breakout) and realmuto during the fire sale.  that shit is probably over.

That is the exact reason I would not pull the trigger on this trade.  Just some round-ass estimating, but we got a WAR of something like 0.8 out of the C spot last year when you average up McCann, Stassi and Maldonado.  Stassi can give you that... maybe, hopefully?

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Mo Horn

Mo Horn 8937

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Posted

When it comes to catcher, I would prefer defense over offense. We've got a lineup where we can sacrifice having a good hitting catcher. We need someone who throws out runners and is great behind the plate.  It's been a while since we've had a long term catcher that runners feared.  Maldonado had some issues, but he had a gun. I'd love to have both, but with our lineup I'd take defense over offense. 

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4714

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Posted
1 hour ago, Mo Horn said:

When it comes to catcher, I would prefer defense over offense. We've got a lineup where we can sacrifice having a good hitting catcher. We need someone who throws out runners and is great behind the plate.  It's been a while since we've had a long term catcher that runners feared.  Maldonado had some issues, but he had a gun. I'd love to have both, but with our lineup I'd take defense over offense. 

To me, offense from the catcher is important because it’s so rare.  Think about it: there are only 5-6 teams who don’t have a guaranteed hole in their lineup, because there are only that many catchers who can hit.  In the playoffs, avoiding a guaranteed out puts so much pressure on the opponents pitching staff, as there’s never a time where the manager can say “he can surely get this next guy”.  Houston having a good hitter at catcher pushes guys like Reddick, Gurriel, Tucker, White, and Kemp down to the bottom of the order.  To me, stretching the lineup like that is far more valuable than a marginal improvement in framing or caught stealing.  But I say all that feeling like Realmuto is a more than adequate defender.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4714

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4 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

That is the exact reason I would not pull the trigger on this trade.  Just some round-ass estimating, but we got a WAR of something like 0.8 out of the C spot last year when you average up McCann, Stassi and Maldonado.  Stassi can give you that... maybe, hopefully?

Stassi projects for a respectable 1.7 fWAR.  Houston’s catching depth chart currently projects 16th in the league (this will change as free agents sign). If Houston does nothing, their catching unit will likely rank in the bottom 10 in the league.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4714

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Posted
13 hours ago, UTexasFight said:


Sounds a bit like a certain #7 retired above the MMP rafters

We all wish, but no.  Biggio was a legit 5’10” (listed at 5’11”).  Stubbs is listed at 5’10”, but I was 10 feet from him when Fresno played Round Rock this season and if he’s over 5’8” or weighs more than 160 I will eat my hat.  He’s TINY.  And his injury history also suggests he’d have a hard time consistently catching more than 80 games a year.  Don’t get me wrong, he’s a decent prospect, guys with his contact tool who can provide plus defense at an up the middle position have real value.  But he’s unlikely to be a long term everyday catcher.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29225

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Posted
11 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

To me, offense from the catcher is important because it’s so rare.  Think about it: there are only 5-6 teams who don’t have a guaranteed hole in their lineup, because there are only that many catchers who can hit.  In the playoffs, avoiding a guaranteed out puts so much pressure on the opponents pitching staff, as there’s never a time where the manager can say “he can surely get this next guy”.  Houston having a good hitter at catcher pushes guys like Reddick, Gurriel, Tucker, White, and Kemp down to the bottom of the order.  To me, stretching the lineup like that is far more valuable than a marginal improvement in framing or caught stealing.  But I say all that feeling like Realmuto is a more than adequate defender.

this sounds like fantasy baseball talk.

if everyone is healthy and producing offensively, all we need at catcher is a martin maldonado type.  someone who calls a good game and plays strong defense.  if they can frame and throw, awesome.  if they occasionally run into one?  cool.

if tucker matures properly, our lineup will be plenty long, and will still contain 3 mvp candidates (hoping correa isn't broken).

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