2018 College Football Playoff Rankings

[TXSooner518 2432]

A 1 loss Texas or OU that won the Big 12 championship is beating out a 1 loss Ohio State or a 1 loss Alabama that didn't play in their conference championship game.

But probably not a conference champion Alabama or Ohio State that has one loss.

[Pato del Muerto 52336]

I do think tx and ou should have the same chance of getting in as the other, should one go 12-1.  I don’t think a 12-1 ou has a better resume than a 12-1 Texas does. 

I do see how people would think that ou has a better chance of getting to 12-1, and therefore has a better shot of making the playoffs as of today. 

Edited October 19, 2018 by Pato del Muerto

[HtownHorn 14468]

Just now, TXSooner518 said:

 

But probably not a conference champion Alabama or Ohio State that has one loss.

 

Good point and probably so. Clemson and ND are the teams we need to lose. If they lose and Texas wins out, we are going to the CFP.

[ztejas 43262]

18 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

"What are they now, 1-6 with title implications on the line? Including 6 straight losses?

I'll take a 3 year stretch of dogshit football to not be a school that consistently fails to elevate to a championship level despite zero excuses."

That's what you said.  That certainly implies that being dogshit is better than losing MNC or playoff games. If that's not what you meant, learn to write.

Yes - I will take a 3 year stretch of that to not be OU.

How that is the same as saying

Quote

we wouldn’t want to have spent the last 8 years winning 5 conference titles only to lose in a couple of CFP Semifinal matchups, and instead should be grateful for the .600 shit sandwich we’ve been served because we might get the opportunity to win those CFP Semifinals now

It's like asking if you'd rather be the Bills or the Rams. I'll take being the Rams 10 times out of 10 because nothing will ever take that trophy away. Winning conference titles isn't especially cathartic unless it's a means to an end. 

[NeverMarryAStripper 21781]

Well, I’m not going to waste any time worrying about it. As far as I’m concerned Texas is playing with house money the rest of the season. I’ll be disappointed if we lose again, but it’s way to soon to be talking playoffs.

 

[Bert Orange 1115]

Why is it a given a 1 loss ND team not be favored over a 1 loss Texas team?

 

they did beat Michigan, VT and Stanford. It wouldn’t be like a loss to USC is much worse than our loss to MD

[Magus Ossis 2783]

5 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

A 1 loss Texas or OU that won the Big 12 championship is beating out a 1 loss Ohio State or a 1 loss Alabama that didn't play in their conference championship game.

I agree wrt tOSU but am not so sure we would be ahead of 1-loss Bama. They have started ahead of the game and spent the season building on their reputation.

[TXSooner518 2432]

Good point and probably so. Clemson and ND are the teams we need to lose. If they lose and Texas wins out, we are going to the CFP.

 

100%. Should only need ND to lose since 12-1 TX or OU should absolutely go over 12-1 Clemson due to the dogshit ACC but I wouldn’t trust the committee to exclude a Clemson team that is 12-1 and been in 4 straight playoffs.

[A’Dam Psycho 1469]

3 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Heather Dinich talks about BlowU as B12's best shot at making Playoffs.

( Can't stand her....)

 

How does the Big 12 get into the CFP now?

Oklahoma wins and Notre Dame loses. Let's start there. The best-case scenario would be for a one-loss Oklahoma to avenge its regular-season loss to rival Texas by beating the Longhorns when it matters most -- in the Big 12 title game. Oklahoma has gotten into the playoff before with both (A) a suspect defense and (B) an October loss to Texas (2015). The Sooners can't afford to lose again, though, and they still need the Irish to stumble, because the odds of the selection committee taking a one-loss Big 12 champ over undefeated Notre Dame is slim.

That's not all, though. As long as LSU and Michigan are in the picture, the possibility of two teams from the Big Ten or SEC also remains. The good news? The Big 12's playoff position isn't as dire as the Pac-12's right now. Oklahoma still has a 22 percent chance to make the semifinals, compared with Washington's 4 percent, according to Playoff Predictor.

 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24993744/college-football-playoff-second-half-scenarios

It makes sense considering BlowU would have a quality loss and win both against Texas. Ours would be a bad loss the Maryland with an interim coach. Ughhh Why did we lose to those bums?

[Magus Ossis 2783]

Just now, TXSooner518 said:

 

100%. 12-1 TX or OU should absolutely go over 12-1 Clemson due to the dogshit ACC but I wouldn’t trust the committee to exclude a Clemson team that is 12-1 and been in 4 straight playoffs.

 

Late losses are punished if Bama is not on the field. We would pass 1-loss Clemson, I am fairly certain.

[ztejas 43262]

2 minutes ago, A’Dam Psycho said:

It makes sense considering BlowU would have a quality loss and win both against Texas. Ours would be a bad loss the Maryland with an interim coach. Ughhh Why did we lose to those bums?

.

Edited October 19, 2018 by ztejas
NVM you're talking either team winning out. Even so there's no way a one loss OU hops someone that a one loss UT wouldn't.

[Pato del Muerto 52336]

3 minutes ago, Bert Orange said:

Why is it a given a 1 loss ND team not be favored over a 1 loss Texas team?

 

they did beat Michigan, VT and Stanford. It wouldn’t be like a loss to USC is much worse than our loss to MD

Because 

1) 11-1 vs 12-1

2) week 1 loss/12 game win streak vs week 9-13 loss and 0-5 game win streak

[Magus Ossis 2783]

This. And neither team is going without winning out or something very odd happening.

2 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Even so there's no way a one loss OU hops someone that a one loss UT wouldn't

 

[dingleberryswitzer 2724]

4 minutes ago, Bert Orange said:

Why is it a given a 1 loss ND team not be favored over a 1 loss Texas team?

 

they did beat Michigan, VT and Stanford. It wouldn’t be like a loss to USC is much worse than our loss to MD

Wasn't there a bunch of talk by the comitee about winning a conference ccg?  Irish don't have that.  

[Wally Banger 40]

This isn't rocket science.  A 1-loss Big 12 team WILL make the playoffs.  The only way that wouldn't happen is if there are 3+ undefeated teams after CCGs are over.  Since 2004, there have only been 3 seasons with multiple P5 teams that were undefeated going into bowl games and even in those years, there were only 2 undefeateds (2005 Texas/USC, 2009 Texas/Bama and 2010 Auburn/Oregon).  If you're in a P5 conference and take care of your shit, you'll be fine.

[Pato del Muerto 52336]

One wildcard is ucf. Would 2 straight undefeated seasons be enough for the committee to give them the #4 spot over 1 loss P5 champs?

[A’Dam Psycho 1469]

4 minutes ago, ztejas said:

.

Yeah personally I think the Big 12 is a long shot at best. Even if Clemson losses they’ll get in off reputation and this confusing notion that the ACC is better than the Big 12

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

A 1 loss Texas or OU that won the Big 12 championship is beating out a 1 loss Ohio State or a 1 loss Alabama that didn't play in their conference championship game.

Ohio St - maybe. Bama, no way. 

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, Bert Orange said:

Why is it a given a 1 loss ND team not be favored over a 1 loss Texas team?

 

they did beat Michigan, VT and Stanford. It wouldn’t be like a loss to USC is much worse than our loss to MD

I don’t disagree and the old adage that ND must lose 2 games doesn’t hold water when you have a blue blood 12-1 Texas or OU team as your alternative, particularly when their losses were on 9/1 or 10/6. 

[A’Dam Psycho 1469]

Bama is getting in with 1 loss point blank. Even if they don’t make the SEC Championship. It might benefit those basturds to lose to LSU and avoid the risk of losing in the championship game

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

One wildcard is ucf. Would 2 straight undefeated seasons be enough for the committee to give them the #4 spot over 1 loss P5 champs?

Nope. And they shouldn’t. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, A’Dam Psycho said:

Bama is getting in with 1 loss point blank. Even if they don’t make the SEC Championship. It might benefit those basturds to lose to LSU and avoid the risk of losing in the championship game

They did last year, and I said over and over again they would, they should have, and they should this year. That’s why I want them to go undefeated. I want them to squash LSU and Georgia backdoor efforts. And yes, I already know my mom liked your backdoor effort last night. 

[HtownHorn 14468]

14 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

They did last year, and I said over and over again they would, they should have, and they should this year. That’s why I want them to go undefeated. I want them to squash LSU and Georgia backdoor efforts. And yes, I already know my mom liked your backdoor effort last night. 

If Ohio State only had 1 loss the would have beaten out Alabama.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

If Ohio State only had 1 loss the would have beaten out Alabama.

You’re right. So your contention is that if Bama loses to either LSU or Auburn or GA in CCG, they’re out in favor of TX or OU?  I just don’t see it, but maybe. 

[dingleberryswitzer 2724]

2 hours ago, A’Dam Psycho said:

Bama is getting in with 1 loss point blank. Even if they don’t make the SEC Championship. It might benefit those basturds to lose to LSU and avoid the risk of losing in the championship game

Like I mentioned above, what happened to all that talk about  conference championship mattering?  B1 made a significant change by adding a ccg for this very reason.  Was it all just bullshit.

[Pato del Muerto 52336]

Just now, dingleberryswitzer said:

Like I mentioned above, what happened to all that talk about  conference championship mattering?  B1 made a significant change by adding a ccg for this very reason.  Was it all just bullshit.

Yes. Committee will pick its teams and then rationalize them as best they can.  Rationale will change from year to year as needed. 

[TXSooner518 2432]

Like I mentioned above, what happened to all that talk about  conference championship mattering?  B1 made a significant change by adding a ccg for this very reason.  Was it all just bullshit.

They never said it was essential. They said it is a considered factor. The consensus best team in the country didn’t have it, but being consensus best let them slide in as the 4 seed. As was posted above, if tOSU had been 12-1 conference champion, Bama likely bites the dust.

[NameWithHeld 101]

4 hours ago, ousux said:

6 hours ago, Assman said:

I don't see the logic in how OU has a greater chance to reach the playoff than us.  I guess the only thing going for them is their loss versus ours, but we've already beat them once and arguably have an easier schedule the rest of the way.  Really what it comes down to is if we both meet in the Big 12 Championship, whoever wins that game has the greatest chance of making the playoff [/captainobvious].  So then you have to look at the odds of making it to that game, and you'd have to argue ours are greater just for the fact that we're 1. undefeated so far in league play, and 2. we have an easier schedule.  So what gives?

Read more  

What I don't get is they say taco tech is our toughest remaining game, yet we haven't played WVU yet.

WVU is in Austin and we play Tech at tortilla flats.   

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13010]

3 hours ago, Wally Banger said:

This isn't rocket science.  A 1-loss Big 12 team WILL make the playoffs.  The only way that wouldn't happen is if there are 3+ undefeated teams after CCGs are over.  Since 2004, there have only been 3 seasons with multiple P5 teams that were undefeated going into bowl games and even in those years, there were only 2 undefeateds (2005 Texas/USC, 2009 Texas/Bama and 2010 Auburn/Oregon).  If you're in a P5 conference and take care of your shit, you'll be fine.

2014 and TCU say hello.

[A’Dam Psycho 1469]

51 minutes ago, dingleberryswitzer said:

Like I mentioned above, what happened to all that talk about  conference championship mattering?  B1 made a significant change by adding a ccg for this very reason.  Was it all just bullshit.

It seems like Bowlsby was the only one that didn’t think this was bullshit. Big 10 got put in the National Championship Game for years without playing a CCG. This was a bullshit excuse to put the big name schools in

[Bevo14 8272]

I'm gonna be honest. I'm so satisfied that we punked all the teams I hate and hate losing to that I barely give a shit about this conversation right now. That stretch beginning from that fuckawful UCLA game I went to as a freshman to before this season has changed me. Life is good, man.

Edited October 20, 2018 by Bevo14

[HtownHorn 14468]

4 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

You’re right. So your contention is that if Bama loses to either LSU or Auburn or GA in CCG, they’re out in favor of TX or OU?  I just don’t see it, but maybe. 

Yes. I don't think the committee will ever take a 1 loss non P5 champ over a 1 loss P5 champ. Bama wasn't even in the Top 4 the week before the champ games. It was Clemson, Auburn, OU, and Wisconsin.

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Yes. I don't think the committee will ever take a 1 loss non P5 champ over a 1 loss P5 champ. Bama wasn't even in the Top 4 the week before the champ games. It was Clemson, Auburn, OU, and Wisconsin.

And yet they won the national title. And 2 of 3 and 5 of 9. I think they would be given dispensation as a result. 

[LTtxfan 48952]

Funny part of the Team's With 1 Loss ESPN Article is that NONE of the three SEC 1 Loss Teams have a 100% Chance of making the playoffs if they Win Out.  That seems ridiculous since they would be 1 Loss SEC Champions.....

Guess they are covering their asses in case a player like Tua gets injured.

 

2. Georgia Bulldogs (6-1)
This week: Bye
Toughest remaining test: Oct. 27 vs. Florida

The odds: There's a 16 percent chance the Bulldogs win out. If they do, there's a 94 percent chance they will reach the playoff, according to ESPN's Playoff Predictor.

4. Florida Gators (6-1)
This week: Bye
Toughest remaining test: Oct. 27 vs. Georgia

The odds: The Gators have a 4 percent chance to win out. If they finish 12-1, there's an 83 percent chance the Gators will reach the playoff. That falls to 35 percent if they go 11-1 and fail to reach the SEC championship.

5. LSU Tigers (6-1)
This week: vs. No. 22 Mississippi State (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Toughest test: Nov. 3 vs. Alabama

The odds: The Tigers only have a 3 percent chance to win out, but if they do, there's an 89 percent chance they will reach the playoff.

 

Edit:  Guess ESPN did not think 1 Loss Kentucky worth considering.

Edited October 20, 2018 by LTtxfan

[Cuernavaca 254]

I liked the BCS formula better than the CFP. With 4 teams in.... I trust the computers more in making the right call over Condi Rice or any of the other war criminals on the committee.

[Magus Ossis 2783]

15 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Funny part of the Team's With 1 Loss ESPN Article is that NONE of the three SEC 1 Loss Teams have a 100% Chance of making the playoffs if they Win Out.  That seems ridiculous since they would be 1 Loss SEC Champions.....

Guess they are covering their asses in case a player like Tua gets injured.

 

2. Georgia Bulldogs (6-1)
This week: Bye
Toughest remaining test: Oct. 27 vs. Florida

The odds: There's a 16 percent chance the Bulldogs win out. If they do, there's a 94 percent chance they will reach the playoff, according to ESPN's Playoff Predictor.

4. Florida Gators (6-1)
This week: Bye
Toughest remaining test: Oct. 27 vs. Georgia

The odds: The Gators have a 4 percent chance to win out. If they finish 12-1, there's an 83 percent chance the Gators will reach the playoff. That falls to 35 percent if they go 11-1 and fail to reach the SEC championship.

5. LSU Tigers (6-1)
This week: vs. No. 22 Mississippi State (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Toughest test: Nov. 3 vs. Alabama

The odds: The Tigers only have a 3 percent chance to win out, but if they do, there's an 89 percent chance they will reach the playoff.

 

Edit:  Guess ESPN did not think 1 Loss Kentucky worth considering.

1-loss SEC champ is in. To suggest otherwise is silly.

[George Clooney 378]

53 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Yes. I don't think the committee will ever take a 1 loss non P5 champ over a 1 loss P5 champ. Bama wasn't even in the Top 4 the week before the champ games. It was Clemson, Auburn, OU, and Wisconsin.

If Bama's only loss is to LSU, and LSU goes on to win the CCG, both teams would likely get in.

[Horn Dogg 3807]

9 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Heather Dinich talks about BlowU as B12's best shot at making Playoffs.

( Can't stand her....)

 

How does the Big 12 get into the CFP now?

Oklahoma wins and Notre Dame loses. Let's start there. The best-case scenario would be for a one-loss Oklahoma to avenge its regular-season loss to rival Texas by beating the Longhorns when it matters most -- in the Big 12 title game. Oklahoma has gotten into the playoff before with both (A) a suspect defense and (B) an October loss to Texas (2015). The Sooners can't afford to lose again, though, and they still need the Irish to stumble, because the odds of the selection committee taking a one-loss Big 12 champ over undefeated Notre Dame is slim.

That's not all, though. As long as LSU and Michigan are in the picture, the possibility of two teams from the Big Ten or SEC also remains. The good news? The Big 12's playoff position isn't as dire as the Pac-12's right now. Oklahoma still has a 22 percent chance to make the semifinals, compared with Washington's 4 percent, according to Playoff Predictor.

 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24993744/college-football-playoff-second-half-scenarios

Article written by a chick....dismiss!

[Shmitty 112]

6 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

 

But probably not a conference champion Alabama or Ohio State that has one loss.

 

This.  A 1-loss conference champ Alabama, Ohio State/Michigan is a lock.  

6 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

 

100%. Should only need ND to lose since 12-1 TX or OU should absolutely go over 12-1 Clemson due to the dogshit ACC but I wouldn’t trust the committee to exclude a Clemson team that is 12-1 and been in 4 straight playoffs.

 

6 hours ago, Wally Banger said:

This isn't rocket science.  A 1-loss Big 12 team WILL make the playoffs.  The only way that wouldn't happen is if there are 3+ undefeated teams after CCGs are over.  Since 2004, there have only been 3 seasons with multiple P5 teams that were undefeated going into bowl games and even in those years, there were only 2 undefeateds (2005 Texas/USC, 2009 Texas/Bama and 2010 Auburn/Oregon).  If you're in a P5 conference and take care of your shit, you'll be fine.

How did that work out for Auburn in 2004?  A 1-loss B12 will make the playoff only if ND stumbles, tOSU does not win the conference and has 2 losses,  Clemson loses a game, and the SEC winner has 2 losses.  I'd almost say that if LSU beats BAMA and wins the SEC, while BAMA wins out, both will be in over Texas.  If that were to happen and ND runs the table, then it becomes a beauty contest between the B12, P12, ACC and B1G for that final spot.     

6 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

One wildcard is ucf. Would 2 straight undefeated seasons be enough for the committee to give them the #4 spot over 1 loss P5 champs?

Probably not but they would deserve a spot based on that 2 year run alone.  

35 minutes ago, George Clooney said:

If Bama's only loss is to LSU, and LSU goes on to win the CCG, both teams would likely get in.

Yes, and don't be surprised to see some home cookin by the refs in Baton Rouge to help make that happen.  

Edited October 20, 2018 by Shmitty

[George Clooney 378]

I'd bet a lot of money that Notre Dame loses at least one game during the regular season. Their o-line is showing cracks, and Ian Book is getting hit a ton. I predict they lose to USC on the road as Helton has (somehow) not yet lost a home game.

[Shmitty 112]

9 minutes ago, George Clooney said:

I'd bet a lot of money that Notre Dame loses at least one game during the regular season. Their o-line is showing cracks, and Ian Book is getting hit a ton. I predict they lose to USC on the road as Helton has (somehow) not yet lost a home game.

I'll take that bet.   They'll beat USC as badly as they beat Stanford and VT.  

[George Clooney 378]

5 minutes ago, Shmitty said:

I'll take that bet.   They'll beat USC as badly as they beat Stanford and VT.  

I just don't see Book being healthy in that game. He's too skinny (and not sufficiently elusive) to be scrambling as much as he does.

[HtownHorn 14468]

23 minutes ago, Shmitty said:

I'll take that bet.   They'll beat USC as badly as they beat Stanford and VT.  

USC losing Porter Gustin was huge. I haven't much of a pass rush outside of him.

USC has 15 sacks, 7.5 from Gustin.

Edited October 20, 2018 by HtownHorn

[clapclapclap 9000]

ESPN's Playoff Promoter keeps OSU in.  Who would have guessed?

 

Edited October 21, 2018 by clapclapclap

[NameWithHeld 101]

On 10/19/2018 at 4:20 PM, TXSooner518 said:

 

But probably not a conference champion Alabama or Ohio State that has one loss.

 

Not after tonight’s loss

[UTEX_ME 4754]

5 minutes ago, NameWithHeld said:

Not after tonight’s loss

Yep. Ohio State must win the Big Ten to be in the playoff. 

[LTtxfan 48952]

16 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

ESPN's Playoff Promoter keeps OSU in.  Who would have guessed?

 

 

Funny the Tweet above leaves out LSU.....

Bama vs Cajun Cookie Monster in 2 Weeks at Death Valley is gonna be a WAR.......

It's a shame one of LSU's best defensive players will miss 1st Half...

LSU’s Devin White is suspended for a half vs. Bama due to targeting

White’s ejection from LSU’s game against Mississippi State carries a one-half suspension for the Tigers’ next game

 

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/10/20/18004146/devin-white-targeting-rule-ncaa

Edited October 21, 2018 by LTtxfan

[Valmy77 13093]

So what needs to happen for there to be no Big 10 teams in the playoff? Michigan needs to lose to Pedo State and Ohio State needs to lose to either Michigan or Michigan State. Then it is over for them right? Or I guess Ohio State loses to Michigan State and then beats Michigan.

That is what we want. No Big 10 at all.

Well ok what we really want is no OU at all. But hopefully we, or somebody else in the Big 12, takes care of them.

 

Edited October 21, 2018 by Valmy77

[LTtxfan 48952]

5 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

So what needs to happen for there to be no Big 10 teams in the playoff? Michigan needs to lose to Pedo State and Ohio State needs to lose to either Michigan or Michigan State. Then it is over for them right? Or I guess Ohio State loses to Michigan State and then beats Michigan.

That is what we want. No Big 10 at all.

Well ok what we really want is no OU at all. But hopefully we, or somebody else in the Big 12, takes care of them.

 

Yeah, if both Michigan & ohio state get two losses on their resume it would be difficult for a B10 Team to make the College Football Playoffs....  Iowa might have an outside shot if they only have 1 loss

Edited October 21, 2018 by LTtxfan

[Billy Pilgrim 1912]

Hell, if Michigan plays Purdue they may lose. Michigan’s offense is not great. Could they keep up with Purdue scoring?