2018 College Football Playoff Rankings

[NowThis 931]

WSU can get in if they run the table and 

texas (or anyone) beats OU

tOSU at home beats Mich

Bama beats LSU and GA , which they will

 

Leach vs. Bama would be fun

[Doc Sam Beckett 5782]

15 minutes ago, NowThis said:

WSU can get in if they run the table and 

texas (or anyone) beats OU

tOSU at home beats Mich

Bama beats LSU and GA , which they will

 

Leach vs. Bama would be fun

If you consider turning a game off in the second quarter because it's a blowout, then yeah, Leach vs Bama would be loads of fun. 

[pops 6973]

4 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

If you consider turning a game off in the second quarter because it's a blowout, then yeah, Leach vs Bama would be loads of fun. 

Is anyone in the country not going to be blown out by bama this year?

[notre dame joe 172]

10 hours ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

 

Lulz.....I'm not even sure what you are trying to say right here. Are you saying WSU should be ranked higher than Clemson? Almost every strength of schedule rating I can find has Clemson much higher than WSU, but more importantly, have you watched both teams play? Do you think Wazzu could stay within 14 points of Clemson? 

 

 

Clemson plays two P5 teams out of conference every year, so they do try to make it hard on their own schedule. 

I'd love to knock Clemson but their schedule looks pretty good right now.  Yet, they are riding the success of NCST as their #1 win. It will be interesting to see if The Wolfpack can still do for them what Michigan has done for us. 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5782]

48 minutes ago, pops said:

Is anyone in the country not going to be blown out by bama this year?

 

Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma have the talent to stand toe to toe with Bama and not get blown out, but it's up to the coaches and players to make it happen. Washington State running out a bunch of two and three stars is gonna get murdered, even with the brilliance of Leach. 

 

28 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

I'd love to knock Clemson but their schedule looks pretty good right now.  Yet, they are riding the success of NCST as their #1 win. It will be interesting to see if The Wolfpack can still do for them what Michigan has done for us. 

 

Yeah Clemson won't finish with any signature top ten wins, but should have a schedule full of solid above average teams who they are kicking the shit out of recently. Even without that typical top ten showdown, I don't know how you can look at Clemson and not think they are a playoff team.... 

[Hamttx 419]

Every time I hear that Alabama is unbeatable:

I think back to that Sugar Bowl against ou, and Finebaum’s dumb ass specifically calling out Stoops. And that he had no place on the same field with Saban.

I think of Vegas and the point spread they put out.

I think of every single talking head associated with the mouse saying it could never happen. Giving their expert opinions on every nuance of Alabama’s superiority.

And then I think of the closing seconds of the broadcast showing the scoreboard.

Yeah, things like that don’t happen.

 

[kopp0e 1135]

8 hours ago, Hamttx said:

I swear I feel this way as well. And if you live in this part of the country. ESPN has used their “these are not the droids you are looking for” to remove what little common sense the majority of SEC fans once had.

In hindsight the mouse made a great move aligning themselves with the SEC fan base simply because like aggy most are happy being miles behind Bama, just as long as they’re ahead of them phaggot California and yankee schools. They took a page straight out of the southern political gameplan and used it on college football. And it worked. 

And it can be argued that ESPN actually double dipped in using the theory you mention as in forming an ACCN for the basketball blue bloods of the conference... Basically ESPN has markets/states locked in with either a primary private school or state flagship from the state of Massachusetts to the state of Texas (of course, I know A&M isn’t the primary flagship of the Lone Star State as that belongs to the University of Texas at Austin)... That includes having not only the majority of the Atlantic coast & Dixie states sowed up until the mid 2030’s but also dabbling in the current conference media footprint of the B1G & XII, leaving the PAC as the only “untouched P5 league without an ESPN branded 3rd tier network within it’s conference borders... The Mouse is, quite wise after all...

[Zavala 1384]

 

[ztejas 43262]

On 10/31/2018 at 6:16 PM, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma have the talent to stand toe to toe with Bama and not get blown out

Do they?

[bigcigar 1161]

30 minutes ago, Zavala said:

 

Joel Klatt.......Joel klatt

[HtownHorn 14468]

1 hour ago, Zavala said:

 

Klatt is the best thing for college football right now. I hope he never goes full Herbstreit.

[ztejas 43262]

Disney discussing ways to frame Joell Klatt for murder. 

[LTtxfan 48962]

2 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

Klatt is the best thing for college football right now. I hope he never goes full Herbstreit.

+1000

Klatt and Gus calling the Texas game!!

Joel Klatt.  @joelklatt

 

Really excited to head back to Austin this weekend for

@WVUfootball &@TexasFootball

on@CFBONFOX
...Winner will likely be in Dallas for the @Big12Conference
title game

Gus, @JennyTaft and I will have the call

 

 

 

12:59 PM · Oct 28, 2018 · Twitter Web Client

Edited November 2, 2018 by LTtxfan

[Machinator 32097]

1    Alabama
2    Clemson
3    Notre Dame
4    Michigan
5    Georgia
6    Oklahoma
7    LSU
8    Washington State
9    West Virginia
10    Ohio State
11    Kentucky
12    UCF
13    Syracuse
14    NC State
15    Florida
16    Mississippi State
17    Boston College
18    Michigan State
19    Texas
20    Penn State
21    Iowa
22    Iowa State
23    Fresno State
24    Auburn
25    Washington

[HtownHorn 14468]

Lulz at LSU, Kentucky, Florida, and Auburn.

[LTtxfan 48962]

SEC Bias is obvious......

I think when "The Committee" calculates their rankings....... any votes for an Sec Team are counted twice.

Knowing that Calculation Factor.... better helps explain the CFP Rankings,

 

[TXSooner518 2432]

Wash State over West Va is just indefensible, much as I love the pirate. Wash State has 0 wins over the CFP Top 25, WVU has 1.  WVU loss was on the road to CFP Top 25 team, Wazzu loss was to unranked team. 

LSU should be 9. The dropoff behind Ohio State is gigantic, so all the teams 11-25 may feel like they are overrated.  Everyone is bagging on the SEC love, but the ACC having Syr, BC and NCSU in the top 17 is also loltastic feeling. For Christ's sake, #17 is a 20 point home dog this week.

[RockyMountainHighHorn 889]

I wish this question would have been asked-“how does a team lose by a good margin, by an unranked team, at home, don’t pass the eye test and they only drop 4 spots? ” Followed up by “I thought one of the biggest changes this year was the increase in importance of home loses and road wins.....” Mother of Zeus that’s outrageous. 

[chase25 2048]

Well on the bright side (not that rankings really matter to us at this point anyway), if we win we are guaranteed to move up 3 spots. #18, #17, and #16 are all likely to lose.

I also think #11 Kentucky loses to Tennessee this week. Just have a feeling about this one, 4-5 Tennessee is playing for a bowl game with Mizz and Vanderbilt left after UK. Kentucky is a fraud and I think they get exposed even more this weekend.

[Sejjr 3246]

UCF would beat that shitty Kentucky team by 2 TDs, at least. Kentucky has easily one of the worst offenses in D1. They might be the biggest fraud I have ever seen. Every team from 18 to 25 would beat Kentucky.

[notre dame joe 172]

5 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

Wash State over West Va is just indefensible, much as I love the pirate. Wash State has 0 wins over the CFP Top 25, WVU has 1.  WVU loss was on the road to CFP Top 25 team, Wazzu loss was to unranked team. 

LSU should be 9. The dropoff behind Ohio State is gigantic, so all the teams 11-25 may feel like they are overrated.  Everyone is bagging on the SEC love, but the ACC having Syr, BC and NCSU in the top 17 is also loltastic feeling. For Christ's sake, #17 is a 20 point home dog this week.

The PACn is a pretty damn competitive division so I don't know how to split WVU vs WSU. But LSU and the rest are only there because of SEC inflation.  All of their wins are against each other.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5782]

8 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

Wash State over West Va is just indefensible, much as I love the pirate. Wash State has 0 wins over the CFP Top 25, WVU has 1.  WVU loss was on the road to CFP Top 25 team, Wazzu loss was to unranked team. 

LSU should be 9. The dropoff behind Ohio State is gigantic, so all the teams 11-25 may feel like they are overrated.  Everyone is bagging on the SEC love, but the ACC having Syr, BC and NCSU in the top 17 is also loltastic feeling. For Christ's sake, #17 is a 20 point home dog this week.

 

7) LSU 7-2

11) Kentucky 7-2

13) Cuse 7-2

14) NCSU 7-2

15) Gata 6-3

16) Miss St 6-3

17) BC 7-2

24) Auburn 6-3

 

You see this and think the ACC is more loltastic than the secsecsec? Where should those 7-2 ACC teams be ranked? Gata, Miss St, Auburn and Kentucky rankings are hilarious. And Miss St may not be home this weekend, but they are a 24 point dog. 

 

[utee94 15745]

I really wish WVU and NCSU had been able to play. 

[satyanash 14281]

The circular logic in these rankings is amazing. They have to keep Auburn in the Top25 to justify LSU dropping so little (quality wins!!1!). And they have to drop LSU as little as possible to justify Auburn staying in the Top25 (quality loss!!1!).

[Doc Sam Beckett 5782]

47 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I really wish WVU and NCSU had been able to play. 

Same here. I think it would have been a shootout. 

[TXSooner518 2432]

The PACn is a pretty damn competitive division so I don't know how to split WVU vs WSU. But LSU and the rest are only there because of SEC inflation.  All of their wins are against each other.

It is competitive but WVU win at Texas is better than anything Wazzu has. It is a “grind of mediums” where there are no elite teams but only one bad one.

 
7) LSU 7-2
11) Kentucky 7-2
13) Cuse 7-2
14) NCSU 7-2
15) Gata 6-3
16) Miss St 6-3
17) BC 7-2
24) Auburn 6-3
 
You see this and think the ACC is more loltastic than the secsecsec? Where should those 7-2 ACC teams be ranked? Gata, Miss St, Auburn and Kentucky rankings are hilarious. And Miss St may not be home this weekend, but they are a 24 point dog. 
 

Didn’t say it was more loltastic but I think it is pretty damn bad, and every post was just on the SEC. The committee does too much “sort by record” rather than digging deep. Who are the best wins for Syracuse, NCSU and BC? And I wholly agree that LSU, Kentucky and Gata are too high esp Gata who just got whipped in Gainesville by Medicorezou. I could buy LSU at 7 if they lost semi-competitively to Bama but that blowout plus their Fla loss being devalued should have dropped them more absolutely.

Bama would be 7 pt fave over Clem on a neutral field so that projects to Miss State would be about a 12-13 point home dog to Clemson.

Auburn at 24 is reasonable to me. Who is left out that is an egregious exclusion? Best team out is prob Utah State and their best win is a close loss to Sparty. Their schedule is abysmal though they have been annihilating most teams and I would take them on a neutral field vs UCF.

I really wish WVU and NCSU had been able to play. 

Same!

[ztejas 43262]

5 hours ago, notre dame joe said:

The PACn is a pretty damn competitive division so I don't know how to split WVU vs WSU. But LSU and the rest are only there because of SEC inflation.  All of their wins are against each other.

Nothing about the Pac12 is competitive. Please.

[jinx 2635]

1 hour ago, satyanash said:

The circular logic in these rankings is amazing. They have to keep Auburn in the Top25 to justify LSU dropping so little (quality wins!!1!). And they have to drop LSU as little as possible to justify Auburn staying in the Top25 (quality loss!!1!).

That is exactly my problem with the whole thing.  A&M wasn't good, but was ranked.  They lose to Auburn (also not good) and, voila!, Auburn is ranked in their place.  In any other conference, a loss means the losing team isn't good.  In the SEC, it just means that the winning team must be REALLY good.

[SHOOTER12 8788]

On 10/30/2018 at 9:07 PM, Steel Shank said:

Wheelhouse

Dem spokes on dat wheel be broke.

[notre dame joe 172]

3 hours ago, ztejas said:

Nothing about the Pac12 is competitive. Please.

I don't know any Rutgers type teams in the PAC.  Cal sort of has a pulse. But the same goes for the Big12 where KU actually won games and still fired their coach.

[TXSooner518 2432]

34 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

I don't know any Rutgers type teams in the PAC.  Cal sort of has a pulse. But the same goes for the Big12 where KU actually won games and still fired their coach.

Oregon State is dreadful.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5782]

21 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

Didn’t say it was more loltastic but I think it is pretty damn bad, and every post was just on the SEC. The committee does too much “sort by record” rather than digging deep. Who are the best wins for Syracuse, NCSU and BC? And I wholly agree that LSU, Kentucky and Gata are too high esp Gata who just got whipped in Gainesville by Medicorezou. I could buy LSU at 7 if they lost semi-competitively to Bama but that blowout plus their Fla loss being devalued should have dropped them more absolutely.

Bama would be 7 pt fave over Clem on a neutral field so that projects to Miss State would be about a 12-13 point home dog to Clemson.

Auburn at 24 is reasonable to me. Who is left out that is an egregious exclusion? Best team out is prob Utah State and their best win is a close loss to Sparty. Their schedule is abysmal though they have been annihilating most teams and I would take them on a neutral field vs UCF.

 

 

 

 BC, Cuse, and NCSU are all in the same boat. Their best win is another team from their conference, which isn't anything special in each case, but at the end of the day, they are all 7-2/6-2 in a P5 conference. There are a ton of teams that don't have a signature win. PedoState has one more loss than BC, and no signature wins, but is only 3 spots away from BC in the rankings. I think that trio of ACC teams is accurately ranked. They have a good chance of finishing 10-2 (NCSU), 9-3 (BC), and 8-4 (Cuse). 

 

I believe Southgate recently released a line on a potential Bama/Clemson matchup and had it at Bama -8.5 iirc. And I agree with you that Miss St would probably open around a 13 point home dog, but I bet it would be closer to 20 around kickoff. 

Pitt and Purdue are two teams that I think have been playing a lot better lately and are better than a lot of the teams ranked ahead of them. 

[TXSooner518 2432]

1 hour ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

 

 BC, Cuse, and NCSU are all in the same boat. Their best win is another team from their conference, which isn't anything special in each case, but at the end of the day, they are all 7-2/6-2 in a P5 conference. There are a ton of teams that don't have a signature win. PedoState has one more loss than BC, and no signature wins, but is only 3 spots away from BC in the rankings. I think that trio of ACC teams is accurately ranked. They have a good chance of finishing 10-2 (NCSU), 9-3 (BC), and 8-4 (Cuse). 

I believe Southgate recently released a line on a potential Bama/Clemson matchup and had it at Bama -8.5 iirc. And I agree with you that Miss St would probably open around a 13 point home dog, but I bet it would be closer to 20 around kickoff. 

Pitt and Purdue are two teams that I think have been playing a lot better lately and are better than a lot of the teams ranked ahead of them. 

Part of the issue is some woeful OOC scheduling, on top of a very weak ACC this year.

BC's OOC was UMass, Holy Cross, Temple, and Purdue. Temple is decent, and Purdue blew BC out.
Syracuse's OOC was Western Michigan, Wagner, and UConn. That is WRETCHED. By far the best team of those 3 is WMU, and they lost to Mich by 46, Toledo by 27, and Ohio by 45 (and Syracuse by 13). They do play Notre Dame, and obviously if they win, that changes the calculus.
NCSU is hampered by the WVU cancellation (or helped, if you think WVU houses them), but they are left with James Madison, Georgia State, and Marshall.

Put another way, what do you LEGITIMATELY think a team like Oklahoma State or Baylor would have as a record with these 3 teams schedules?

Penn State played App State, which is better than every team above except probably Purdue, and also beat Pitt, who you say is underrated, 51-6. Penn State also beat Iowa, which is better than every team any of the above 3 have beaten. None of the above teams has a win remotely close to beating Pitt by 45 points. PSU's losses are to 3 ranked teams, 2 of the losses by a combined 5 points. 

In Sagarin Predictor, PSU is 7, NCSU is 30, BC is 34, Syracuse is 44. If the committee was ranking SEC teams 20-30 spots higher than their Sagarin computer rankings, people would be going BERSERK, especially SEC teams with the pure hot garbage schedules I just posted.

To compare to the controversial SEC rankings, in SP, LSU is 10, Miss State 11, Florida 26, Kentucky 29, Auburn 18.  So the committee is slightly overrating LSU, slightly underrating Miss State and Auburn, and significantly overrating Florida and Kentucky (but less than it is overrating the ACC trio). 

I agree that Clem @ Miss State would open at 13, but no way it moves to 20.  Feel free to point to many games, if any, that shifted a touchdown after opening with no major injury news. Also, you are saying that Clemson would be a TD+ dog to Bama, which is true, but then making a claim that the odds would treat Clem as better than Bama, as a +20 road spread is a more powerful spread than a +24 home spread, which is what Miss State @ Bama is (opened there, hasn't moved, BTW). 

To your last point, Pitt and Purdue were two of the teams that I had in mind that the committee is currently underranking because they are "sorting by record" rather than truly a deep dive into how a team is playing.

[TXSooner518 2432]

To follow up a bit more, the two components that the committee should look at are "how good is the team?" and "how good is what they have done?"

Those two components are reflected in power rankings and Strength of Record metrics. Here are the CFP rankings, with each team's SOR and FPI ranking. I bolded the teams that are ranked higher in the CFP than in either of these metrics. For the OMGSEC bias crew, note that UGA is ahead of Mich in both yet behind them in CFP:

1. Alabama - 2, 1
2. Clemson - 3, 2
3. Notre Dame - 1, 8
4. Michigan - 5, 4
5. UGA - 4, 3
6. OU - 8, 5
7. LSU - 6, 12
8. Wazzu - 11, 25
9. West Va - 9, 11
10. tOSU - 10, 6
11. Kentucky - 7, 31 - the general feeling that UK is too high is a result of this large disparity
12. UCF - 12, 32
13. Syracuse - 27, 40 - not a top 25 team by EITHER metric, yet #13. By far the worst ranking in the list.
14. NCSU - 15, 34
15. Florida - 14, 20
16. Miss State - 28, 10
17. BC - 18, 30
18. Michigan St. - 13, 17
19. Texas - 24, 24
20. Penn State - 19, 7
21. Iowa - 26, 13
22. Iowa State - 16, 29
23. Fresno St - 35, 18
24. Auburn - 30, 19
25. Washington - 17, 9

So 5 teams appear overrated by this list, 0 from the SEC, 3 from the ACC and 1 each from the B12 and P12. Mich State, Penn State and UW appear underrated by the list as both their SOR and FPI rankings are higher than their CFP rating. PSU makes some sense as they appeared hapless in their last game and are trending down. 

[bigcigar 1161]

3 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

To follow up a bit more, the two components that the committee should look at are "how good is the team?" and "how good is what they have done?"

Those two components are reflected in power rankings and Strength of Record metrics. Here are the CFP rankings, with each team's SOR and FPI ranking. I bolded the teams that are ranked higher in the CFP than in either of these metrics. For the OMGSEC bias crew, note that UGA is ahead of Mich in both yet behind them in CFP:

1. Alabama - 2, 1
2. Clemson - 3, 2
3. Notre Dame - 1, 8
4. Michigan - 5, 4
5. UGA - 4, 3
6. OU - 8, 5
7. LSU - 6, 12
8. Wazzu - 11, 25
9. West Va - 9, 11
10. tOSU - 10, 6
11. Kentucky - 7, 31 - the general feeling that UK is too high is a result of this large disparity
12. UCF - 12, 32
13. Syracuse - 27, 40 - not a top 25 team by EITHER metric, yet #13. By far the worst ranking in the list.
14. NCSU - 15, 34
15. Florida - 14, 20
16. Miss State - 28, 10
17. BC - 18, 30
18. Michigan St. - 13, 17
19. Texas - 24, 24
20. Penn State - 19, 7
21. Iowa - 26, 13
22. Iowa State - 16, 29
23. Fresno St - 35, 18
24. Auburn - 30, 19
25. Washington - 17, 9

So 5 teams appear overrated by this list, 0 from the SEC, 3 from the ACC and 1 each from the B12 and P12. Mich State, Penn State and UW appear underrated by the list as both their SOR and FPI rankings are higher than their CFP rating. PSU makes some sense as they appeared hapless in their last game and are trending down. 

So you’re saying OU is overrated by the computers and the CFP committee? Because we all know OU sucks.

[TXSooner518 2432]

So, uhhhh, NCSU drops the soap at home vs Wake Forest.

But hey, Wake is good, just ask the other teams they have beaten - Tulane, Towson, Rice and Louisville. No top 75 wins til tonight in Raleigh for Wake.

[rickyspub 801]

2 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

So, uhhhh, NCSU drops the soap at home vs Wake Forest.

But hey, Wake is good, just ask the other teams they have beaten - Tulane, Towson, Rice and Louisville. No top 75 wins til tonight in Raleigh for Wake.

But they beat aggy in a bowl game less than a year ago, they are known giant killers. #advantageaggy

[notre dame joe 172]

3 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

So, uhhhh, NCSU drops the soap at home vs Wake Forest.

But hey, Wake is good, just ask the other teams they have beaten - Tulane, Towson, Rice and Louisville. No top 75 wins til tonight in Raleigh for Wake.

WFU may have only been our 7th best win, but it's nice to see them go on the road and stick it to Clemson's best.

[Hamttx 419]

17 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

To follow up a bit more, the two components that the committee should look at are "how good is the team?" and "how good is what they have done?"

Those two components are reflected in power rankings and Strength of Record metrics. Here are the CFP rankings, with each team's SOR and FPI ranking. I bolded the teams that are ranked higher in the CFP than in either of these metrics. For the OMGSEC bias crew, note that UGA is ahead of Mich in both yet behind them in CFP:

1. Alabama - 2, 1
2. Clemson - 3, 2
3. Notre Dame - 1, 8
4. Michigan - 5, 4
5. UGA - 4, 3
6. OU - 8, 5
7. LSU - 6, 12
8. Wazzu - 11, 25
9. West Va - 9, 11
10. tOSU - 10, 6
11. Kentucky - 7, 31 - the general feeling that UK is too high is a result of this large disparity
12. UCF - 12, 32
13. Syracuse - 27, 40 - not a top 25 team by EITHER metric, yet #13. By far the worst ranking in the list.
14. NCSU - 15, 34
15. Florida - 14, 20
16. Miss State - 28, 10
17. BC - 18, 30
18. Michigan St. - 13, 17
19. Texas - 24, 24
20. Penn State - 19, 7
21. Iowa - 26, 13
22. Iowa State - 16, 29
23. Fresno St - 35, 18
24. Auburn - 30, 19
25. Washington - 17, 9

So 5 teams appear overrated by this list, 0 from the SEC, 3 from the ACC and 1 each from the B12 and P12. Mich State, Penn State and UW appear underrated by the list as both their SOR and FPI rankings are higher than their CFP rating. PSU makes some sense as they appeared hapless in their last game and are trending down. 

Well shit man, you left out both ESPN and the committees two most important determining elements......The Eye Test and The Body of Work!

You see, those in charge have an enhanced sense of the visual. A trait that us common folk neither have nor understand. One can however achieve this heightened sense of the visual when given large amounts of cash, and or are corrupt by a hidden agendas.

So forget about things like Auburn kicking both Alabama and Georgia’s ass (regular season game) last year. And then Auburn getting their asses handed to them by of all people a team that the committee deemed totally unfit for consideration of playoff contention as their FTTS (Fuck Them To Small) score said such a result did not fall into the mean.....UCF. If they had allowed UCF to compete and the unimaginable were to have happened. And UCF would have....dare I say....beaten them. We would have had a shitstorm on our hands trying to sell this load of shit we call a selection committee going forward. Instead the committee prefers to cherry pick playoff teams by conference affiliation using TET (the eye test) and BOW (body of Work) simply because the general public simply doesn’t understand the principals of controlling the narrative.

It should be noted however that possession of this enhanced sense has side effects. Traits like honesty, fair play and morality can be somewhat dulled by the influx of large amounts of said cash into the equation when acquiring AET (advanced eye test). This enables the committee chair to publicly announce with a straight face (on ESPN no less) why a undefeated team failed to break into the top 6 after going on a 21 game winning streak. Therefore is ineligible to compete in a playoff scenario. As it is beyond the realm of possibility that those phag’s could possibly beat one of our teams because their regular season schedule didn’t have any of our guys on it. You know, because our guys ain’t crazy and don’t like scheduling those guys. cuz who wants to schedule a team that can put six fucking guys on NFL rosters in a single year...fuck that, we could lose.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5782]

21 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

Part of the issue is some woeful OOC scheduling, on top of a very weak ACC this year.

Put another way, what do you LEGITIMATELY think a team like Oklahoma State or Baylor would have as a record with these 3 teams schedules?

In Sagarin Predictor, PSU is 7, NCSU is 30, BC is 34, Syracuse is 44. If the committee was ranking SEC teams 20-30 spots higher than their Sagarin computer rankings, people would be going BERSERK, especially SEC teams with the pure hot garbage schedules I just posted.

 

 

 

Agreed some ACC schools have a terrible OOC schedule, and also agree the ACC is down this year, but again, where should these 2 loss P5 teams be ranked of not where they are? Any P5 team with 2 losses is going to be ranked high with a good resume (LSU) and mid pack with a weak resume (BC, Cuse, NCSU). I will agree that Cuse should probably be lower. 

What would Baylor or Okie Lite do with BC or Cuse's schedule? Who knows, but I don't think they would be 7-2. Duke went to Waco without a couple of their best players and kicked the shit out of the Bears. I know you think the ACC teams are all terrible because the conference is down this year, but I still think those three are solid mid level teams who, on any given week, can punch above their weight class or get taken down by an inferior team.....just like the solid mid level teams in the rest of the P5 conferences. 

Also in Sagarin - 28 Kentucky, 29 Florida, 30 NCSU, 33 BC. 

 

19 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

To follow up a bit more, the two components that the committee should look at are "how good is the team?" and "how good is what they have done?"

Those two components are reflected in power rankings and Strength of Record metrics. Here are the CFP rankings, with each team's SOR and FPI ranking. I bolded the teams that are ranked higher in the CFP than in either of these metrics. For the OMGSEC bias crew, note that UGA is ahead of Mich in both yet behind them in CFP:

1. Alabama - 2, 1
2. Clemson - 3, 2
3. Notre Dame - 1, 8
4. Michigan - 5, 4
5. UGA - 4, 3
6. OU - 8, 5
7. LSU - 6, 12
8. Wazzu - 11, 25
9. West Va - 9, 11
10. tOSU - 10, 6
11. Kentucky - 7, 31 - the general feeling that UK is too high is a result of this large disparity
12. UCF - 12, 32
13. Syracuse - 27, 40 - not a top 25 team by EITHER metric, yet #13. By far the worst ranking in the list.
14. NCSU - 15, 34
15. Florida - 14, 20
16. Miss State - 28, 10
17. BC - 18, 30
18. Michigan St. - 13, 17
19. Texas - 24, 24
20. Penn State - 19, 7
21. Iowa - 26, 13
22. Iowa State - 16, 29
23. Fresno St - 35, 18
24. Auburn - 30, 19
25. Washington - 17, 9

So 5 teams appear overrated by this list, 0 from the SEC, 3 from the ACC and 1 each from the B12 and P12. Mich State, Penn State and UW appear underrated by the list as both their SOR and FPI rankings are higher than their CFP rating. PSU makes some sense as they appeared hapless in their last game and are trending down. 

So #11 Kentucky at 7, 31 is not overrated, but #17 BC at 18, 30 is? 

The problem with the secsecsec is they continue to get the benefit of the doubt by beating each other. Not sure what Miss St has done to justify being 10 in FPI. 

[TXSooner518 2432]

1 hour ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

 

Agreed some ACC schools have a terrible OOC schedule, and also agree the ACC is down this year, but again, where should these 2 loss P5 teams be ranked of not where they are? Any P5 team with 2 losses is going to be ranked high with a good resume (LSU) and mid pack with a weak resume (BC, Cuse, NCSU). I will agree that Cuse should probably be lower. 

What would Baylor or Okie Lite do with BC or Cuse's schedule? Who knows, but I don't think they would be 7-2. Duke went to Waco without a couple of their best players and kicked the shit out of the Bears. I know you think the ACC teams are all terrible because the conference is down this year, but I still think those three are solid mid level teams who, on any given week, can punch above their weight class or get taken down by an inferior team.....just like the solid mid level teams in the rest of the P5 conferences. 

Also in Sagarin - 28 Kentucky, 29 Florida, 30 NCSU, 33 BC. 

 

So #11 Kentucky at 7, 31 is not overrated, but #17 BC at 18, 30 is? 

The problem with the secsecsec is they continue to get the benefit of the doubt by beating each other. Not sure what Miss St has done to justify being 10 in FPI. 

I think those 2 loss P5 teams should be behind some 3 loss P5 teams that have actually beaten top teams, and scheduled decently OOC. And I'm not trying to hate on the ACC in general. For example, 6-3 Duke might deserve to be ranked ahead of all of those teams. They won at Miami, which is as good as any win any of those 3 have in conference, plus OOC they beat 7-2 Army, and won at Baylor and at B1G division-leading Northwestern as well, all by 2 TDs or more. Their 3 losses are all to teams in the top 1/3 of the ACC.  None of the teams that are ranked in the ACC have had to play Duke, who very legit might be the 2nd best ACC team. Penn State is another 3 loss team that I think has a better resume than the ACC 3, though PSU seems to be "trending down", so I don't mind them being "underrated."

My strong guess is OSU and Baylor would each be 7-2 with Syracuse's schedule. One clear loss, @ Clemson, though if Baylor or OSU got Lawrence-less Clemson like Cuse did, who knows. 6 clear wins, with 2 "toss-up" type games, being NC State and @Pitt. 

I do think Kentucky is mildly overrated, but my point was that there are metrics that the committee can say they relied on for Kentucky - strength of record. Note that Miss State and Auburn don't have a high SOR, so it isn't just an SEC circlejerk metric. Clearly, Kentucky's SOR doesn't match their on-field power, which watching the games confirms for most people. I would have Kentucky in the 15-17 range. The 3 ACC teams were all ranked higher than EITHER their SOR or power rankings justified.

You say the SEC is getting the "benefit of the doubt by beating each other" but then want to say "Hey Cuse is 7-2, by beating 3 total creampuffs OOC and then beat some medium ACC teams so what can you do", which is literally exactly what everyone whines the SEC does. 

Miss State is high in FPI because of their defensive efficiency. They've allowed 9 TDs this year. Of course, we will see how that holds up this weekend. They did at least go on the road and beat a mid-level P5 team by 3 TDs. I know La Tech isn't a sexy name, but they are 6-3, played LSU tight, only other loss is to 8-1 UAB, and Miss State crushed them by 42 in a trappy spot.

Lastly, I don't think the ACC teams are all "terrible", but I do think that each of the other P5 conferences has multiple teams that would be a CLEAR #2 in the ACC, because there is just a morass of mediocrity behind Clemson. The ACC is Clemson, then like 11 teams that are like Tech or KSU or Baylor, then 2 Kansases (UNC/Lou).  Teams I think would definitely be top 2 in the ACC:

B12: OU, WVU, Texas, ISU
B1G: tOSU, Mich, Sparty, PSU
PAC: Wazzu, UW, Utah pre-injuries, Stanford
SEC: Bama, UGA, Miss State, Auburn, lolaggy
OTHER: Utah State, Fresno State, UCF

I know you're a Clemson fan, and I'm not trying to slight Clemson with any of this. They are NOT a team like Iowa a couple years ago or Wisconsin where they were unbeaten due to schedule despite being like the 15th best team in the country. Clemson is elite. But it will be very interesting, should they happen to lose, if the awfulness of the ACC or the clear power of Clemson is the deciding factor for the committee.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5782]

1 hour ago, TXSooner518 said:

 

I know you're a Clemson fan, and I'm not trying to slight Clemson with any of this. They are NOT a team like Iowa a couple years ago or Wisconsin where they were unbeaten due to schedule despite being like the 15th best team in the country. Clemson is elite. But it will be very interesting, should they happen to lose, if the awfulness of the ACC or the clear power of Clemson is the deciding factor for the committee.

Fair enough

It would be very interesting to see what the committee would do, and a lot would depend on what happens with other teams. I think it is obvious Clemson is a top 4 team, but they might not be able to justify it with Clemson's schedule, which sucks for Clemson because 10 P5 opponents, including two typically decent secsecsec teams should be enough. 

To be honest, barring some massive injuries in a crazy fluke game, Clemson shouldn't come close to losing any of the remaining games, including the ACCCG, and it would look terrible for them if they did. 

[ztejas 43262]

On 11/7/2018 at 12:40 PM, notre dame joe said:

I don't know any Rutgers type teams in the PAC.  Cal sort of has a pulse. But the same goes for the Big12 where KU actually won games and still fired their coach.

The PAC is just one big circle of suck. None of them are actual contenders - let alone teams that can effectively match athletes and size with other conferences. 

Texas kicked the absolute dogshit out of a USC team that is 4-3 in conference play with wins over WSU, OSU, Zona and Colorado. 

Washington State is a solid team but anyone outside of that would probably finish 5th-6th at best in the Big12/Big10/SEC

[ztejas 43262]

12 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Fair enough

It would be very interesting to see what the committee would do, and a lot would depend on what happens with other teams. I think it is obvious Clemson is a top 4 team, but they might not be able to justify it with Clemson's schedule, which sucks for Clemson because 10 P5 opponents, including two typically decent secsecsec teams should be enough. 

To be honest, barring some massive injuries in a crazy fluke game, Clemson shouldn't come close to losing any of the remaining games, including the ACCCG, and it would look terrible for them if they did. 

I don't think Clemson will lose until the NCG. Yeah they haven't played a great schedule but the degree of their blowouts is getting to be absolutely ludicrous - and it seems like they are only getting better each week.

I think they are the only team in the country that could line up across from Bama and make them sweat. One of those teams will take home the trophy this season - but I really want to watch them play. 

Since the 'Cuse scare, Clemson has outscored its 4 opponents two hundred and fucking forty to thirty six. They are bending teams over and whipping ass until it bleeds right now. 

Edited November 9, 2018 by ztejas

[kopp0e 1135]

5 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

I think those 2 loss P5 teams should be behind some 3 loss P5 teams that have actually beaten top teams, and scheduled decently OOC. And I'm not trying to hate on the ACC in general. For example, 6-3 Duke might deserve to be ranked ahead of all of those teams. They won at Miami, which is as good as any win any of those 3 have in conference, plus OOC they beat 7-2 Army, and won at Baylor and at B1G division-leading Northwestern as well, all by 2 TDs or more. Their 3 losses are all to teams in the top 1/3 of the ACC.  None of the teams that are ranked in the ACC have had to play Duke, who very legit might be the 2nd best ACC team. Penn State is another 3 loss team that I think has a better resume than the ACC 3, though PSU seems to be "trending down", so I don't mind them being "underrated."

My strong guess is OSU and Baylor would each be 7-2 with Syracuse's schedule. One clear loss, @ Clemson, though if Baylor or OSU got Lawrence-less Clemson like Cuse did, who knows. 6 clear wins, with 2 "toss-up" type games, being NC State and @Pitt. 

I do think Kentucky is mildly overrated, but my point was that there are metrics that the committee can say they relied on for Kentucky - strength of record. Note that Miss State and Auburn don't have a high SOR, so it isn't just an SEC circlejerk metric. Clearly, Kentucky's SOR doesn't match their on-field power, which watching the games confirms for most people. I would have Kentucky in the 15-17 range. The 3 ACC teams were all ranked higher than EITHER their SOR or power rankings justified.

You say the SEC is getting the "benefit of the doubt by beating each other" but then want to say "Hey Cuse is 7-2, by beating 3 total creampuffs OOC and then beat some medium ACC teams so what can you do", which is literally exactly what everyone whines the SEC does. 

Miss State is high in FPI because of their defensive efficiency. They've allowed 9 TDs this year. Of course, we will see how that holds up this weekend. They did at least go on the road and beat a mid-level P5 team by 3 TDs. I know La Tech isn't a sexy name, but they are 6-3, played LSU tight, only other loss is to 8-1 UAB, and Miss State crushed them by 42 in a trappy spot.

Lastly, I don't think the ACC teams are all "terrible", but I do think that each of the other P5 conferences has multiple teams that would be a CLEAR #2 in the ACC, because there is just a morass of mediocrity behind Clemson. The ACC is Clemson, then like 11 teams that are like Tech or KSU or Baylor, then 2 Kansases (UNC/Lou).  Teams I think would definitely be top 2 in the ACC:

B12: OU, WVU, Texas, ISU
B1G: tOSU, Mich, Sparty, PSU
PAC: Wazzu, UW, Utah pre-injuries, Stanford
SEC: Bama, UGA, Miss State, Auburn, lolaggy
OTHER: Utah State, Fresno State, UCF

I know you're a Clemson fan, and I'm not trying to slight Clemson with any of this. They are NOT a team like Iowa a couple years ago or Wisconsin where they were unbeaten due to schedule despite being like the 15th best team in the country. Clemson is elite. But it will be very interesting, should they happen to lose, if the awfulness of the ACC or the clear power of Clemson is the deciding factor for the committee.

I still think Clemson might be upset by South Carolina in a few weeks, with that supposed "SECspeed" defense in all, we will see I guess...

[notre dame joe 172]

LA Lafayette and Louisville are fringe top 100 teams.  Arkansas State is #80.  I can't find anything on the Citadel.

 

Explain why are we worried about the ACC ooc schedule please.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5782]

1 hour ago, kopp0e said:

I still think Clemson might be upset by South Carolina in a few weeks, with that supposed "SECspeed" defense in all, we will see I guess...

Is that you Jake Bentley? Are you dropping another "never again" on Clemson? 

[ztejas 43262]

kopp0e calls one near upset and now he thinks South Carolina might beat this Clemson team. I'll eat a trough full of crow if the Gamedicks hang a W on clemson.

[kopp0e 1135]

1 hour ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Is that you Jake Bentley? Are you dropping another "never again" on Clemson? 

I think I am less impressed of who Clemson has played in the ACC, vs that of what the team has actually accomplished when the "power schools all suck right now in the ACC... 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5782]

2 hours ago, kopp0e said:

I think I am less impressed of who Clemson has played in the ACC, vs that of what the team has actually accomplished when the "power schools all suck right now in the ACC... 

Thought you were joking. Interesting