Early Voting 2018 thread of doom

[Guest]

1 hour ago, SubliminalHorn said:

It’s always telling that there’s a certain political party that is always rationalizing making voting harder. Wonder why....

As it is telling that the same folks are always bitching about how life doesn’t fall in their lap.

Make it happen...or do not.

[SubliminalHorn 6786]

Oh the republican line of “pull yourself up by your bootstraps”. Such a farce. Voting should be easy and accessible. There’s a reason why slorchy’s party continuously tries to suppress votes and it isn’t because of fraud. 

[Guest]

Just now, SubliminalHorn said:

Oh the republican line of “pull yourself up by your bootstraps”. Such a farce. Voting should be easy and accessible. There’s a reason why slorchy’s party continuously tries to suppress votes and it isn’t because of fraud. 

Gimme a break with this “ We work 80 hours a week and can’t get to the polls” nonsense.

[SubliminalHorn 6786]

Why not just say, yes voting should be easy and accessible. Let’s exllore all options to make sure everyone participates. And that doesn’t necessarily mean expanding early voting hours. What about mail in voting? Other states and countries for that matter have explored ways to make it easier. Why is that such a difficult concept for republicans? We know the answer. 

[hookem2010 2624]

For Tarrant Co voters, the JPS health center had no line whatsoever. First mid-term vote for me. I went pick-by-pick to avoid any of the glitchy vote-switching bullshit

[Nice Guy Eddie 13511]

I slacked yesterday and didn't post the early vote thru Thursday.  I don't know if it will be possible to get Friday, Saturday and Sunday totals for all Top 16 counties until Monday.

I do see that on Friday, Harris County had the most in-person votes for the week.  Nothing drastically larger but 65,651 vote which was about 800 more than Tuesday, the previous high.  I will have that report on Monday.  

 

[Guest]

27 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

Why not just say, yes voting should be easy and accessible. Let’s exllore all options to make sure everyone participates. And that doesn’t necessarily mean expanding early voting hours. What about mail in voting? Other states and countries for that matter have explored ways to make it easier. Why is that such a difficult concept for republicans? We know the answer. 

Make it online.

aggy would infiltrate that shit and GOP would never lose.

 

And yes, access is so limited.  You’re so on it.

[SubliminalHorn 6786]

Supporting the party of voter suppression, bold move slorchy

[DDD Dad 14334]

Slorch’d!

[Nice Guy Eddie 13511]

lost the link from the post above:

Repeat: Early voting thru Thursday

 

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

Supporting the party of voter suppression, bold move slorchy

While you Support the party of people so inept at life they cannot perform the most rudimentary of functions.

 

or at least you expect people to believe that.

 

Way to go, bro...

Edited October 27, 2018 by slorch

[sushihorn 3233]

9 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

lost the link from the post above:

Repeat: Early voting thru Thursday

 

Is there some local race that has people so fired up in Corpus?  Nueces is the only county still above comp 2016 turnout levels.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13511]

2 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Is there some local race that has people so fired up in Corpus?  Nueces is the only county still above comp 2016 turnout levels.

good question.  Their rep is Cloud who took over Farenthold's seat.  Cloud is expected to win easily.  They also have a mayor election this election cycle.  

[atomheartbevo 89652]

1 hour ago, slorch said:

While you Support the party of people so inept at life they cannot perform the most rudimentary of functions.

I have yet to hear a Republican explain why it shouldn't be easy to vote.  

It's 2018 and we are the United States of America, the nation that drives the internet and technology, but somehow we deliberately do a shit job when it comes to voting.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33869]

1 hour ago, slorch said:

Make it online.

aggy would infiltrate that shit and GOP would never lose.

 

And yes, access is so limited.  You’re so on it.

I actually think it will be via smartphone soon. I could see scenario where you set a voting appointment with the county registrar, do a retinal scan to sign in, complete your ballot while face-timing with an election official, then they verbally verify your vote for you; you complete the session with another retinal scan and your vote does not register until you do. You get emailed a receipt to your phone, verifying your vote. All takes about 10 minutes and you can do it on the toilet. In-person voting will still be available for people without smart phones.

[Mo Horn 8832]

Voted early today in Kansas. New machines that were really nice. You start by putting a blank page in the machine. Then you use electronic touch screens to vote. At the end it gives you a summary on the screen where you can make any changes you want. You then print out the ballot and review the paper ballot to make sure it's correct. You then reinsert the paper ballot and the electronic screen comes back up where you can make any changes again. Once you're done you hit "cast vote".  It records the vote and keeps the paper ballot that can be used as backup.

Easy to use, several chances to make changes and ensure your vote is what you want it to be, and has a backup system. I was impressed. 

[Huckleberry 32851]

Gimme a break with this “ We work 80 hours a week and can’t get to the polls” nonsense.

You're such a fucking idiot sometimes.

Believe it or not, there are a lot of people who work 80 hours per week. Of course you don't give a shit about anyone but yourself so this post makes sense.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33869]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

lost the link from the post above:

Repeat: Early voting thru Thursday

 

At this pace, these counties would be at 42% (avg) before election day. Nice.

Edited October 27, 2018 by Longhorn_Fan68

[Texas73 420]

2 hours ago, slorch said:

As it is telling that the same folks are always bitching about how life doesn’t fall in their lap.

Make it happen...or do not.

 

1 hour ago, slorch said:

While you Support the party of people so inept at life they cannot perform the most rudimentary of functions.

 

or at least you expect people to believe that.

 

Way to go, bro...

What in the hell are you saying? Do you speak English?

[NameWithHeld 101]

45 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Voted early today in Kansas. New machines that were really nice. You start by putting a blank page in the machine. Then you use electronic touch screens to vote. At the end it gives you a summary on the screen where you can make any changes you want. You then print out the ballot and review the paper ballot to make sure it's correct. You then reinsert the paper ballot and the electronic screen comes back up where you can make any changes again. Once you're done you hit "cast vote".  It records the vote and keeps the paper ballot that can be used as backup.

Easy to use, several chances to make changes and ensure your vote is what you want it to be, and has a backup system. I was impressed. 

The way you described the process it seems like a lot of work and could be confusing to some. How is that easy?

[Mo Horn 8832]

It was very easy. Describing it may sound more difficult than it was.  Before you vote someone explains it to you.  There are also step by step instructions printed on the partition and on the screen. Volunteers are also available to help at anytime during the process. There are also other options available. You can do a preprinted paper ballot if you want. 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33869]

I checked the EV line wait site and it's great to see several red and yellow lights. I'm hoping the nice weather gets more people out. This is great drama

Edited October 27, 2018 by Longhorn_Fan68

[Bama Chick 28596]

I wish we had early voting here.

Hopefully since we don’t have a senate race, it won’t be too bad but for once there’s a sort of competitive gubernatorial race so Election Day here is likely to be a shitshow.

[Biff Tannen 45676]

3 hours ago, Mo Horn said:

Voted early today in Kansas. New machines that were really nice. You start by putting a blank page in the machine. Then you use electronic touch screens to vote. At the end it gives you a summary on the screen where you can make any changes you want. You then print out the ballot and review the paper ballot to make sure it's correct. You then reinsert the paper ballot and the electronic screen comes back up where you can make any changes again. Once you're done you hit "cast vote".  It records the vote and keeps the paper ballot that can be used as backup.

Easy to use, several chances to make changes and ensure your vote is what you want it to be, and has a backup system. I was impressed. 

And why can't Texas do this?  Oh, republicans would lose if they didn't fucking cheat.  That's right.

[Celery Man 20934]

Slorch's line of reasoning would have merit if the same people who have a long history of suppressing the vote weren't still trying to suppress votes.  The only thing that causes it to be unduly difficult for many to register and vote is people like the folks that Slorch thinks espouse good horse sense or whatever purposefully preventing any improvements to the system because they do not want them to occur.  Wait until an election cycle when we don't have people working overtime to input registrations by hand, when they aren't moving the single polling location out of the city limits in places, when they aren't throwing out thousands upon thousands of votes because a signature doesn't look right or a hyphen isn't consistent, when they aren't cancelling registrations of inactive voters, when there's more than... 1? early voting location east of 35 in Austin, when they aren't requiring an ID with a street address for people who don't have street addresses, when voting machines are reliable, on and on - WAIT UNTIL THEN to say "y'all will complain about anything".  Before then, and not until after then, that attitude reflects stupidity or complicit approval of the value that some people should not vote, which is un fucking American.

[Js1 85313]

In line at Bayland Community center in Houston. Probably 100 people ahead of me. Some guy said it’s been wrapped around the building since this morning. 

[gmr548 16576]

In line at Bayland Community center in Houston. Probably 100 people ahead of me. Some guy said it’s been wrapped around the building since this morning. 

Red wave!

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[Js1 85313]

40 min or so total. 

Pro tip to HFD: if you want that raise, you should hustle when that dude passes out in line instead of begging voters. 

[A-Tex Devil 2446]

Took my 4 year old to Bee Cave Library to vote today.  We get in the voting room and she announces “Which one [booth] votes for Beto?”   Half laughs, half uncomfortable, given it is Bee Cave, which is more Montgomery County than Austin.   

First law she’s ever broken.  Hopefully not first of many.  

[gmr548 16576]

Took my 4 year old to Bee Cave Library to vote today.  We get in the voting room and she announces “Which one [booth] votes for Beto?”   Half laughs, half uncomfortable, given it is Bee Cave, which is more Montgomery County than Austin.   
First law she’s ever broken.  Hopefully not first of many.  

OmG dEm VoTeR fRaUd WiTh KiDs!!!111

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

Saw someone else think that Williamson County would go D?  Is that the conventional wisdom?

[RayDog 682]

31 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Saw someone else think that Williamson County would go D?  Is that the conventional wisdom?

Trump got 8.1% fewer votes than Romney, so based on a 4% decrease every 2 years due to demographics Wilco should be slightly Democratic in 2018. Based on moves away from the Republican party by educated voters and women Beto could conceivably win Wilco by 4% or more.

[gmr548 16576]

Saw someone else think that Williamson County would go D?  Is that the conventional wisdom?

I doubt it but it should be closer than 16. Williamson, along with Tarrant, is actually a pretty good bellweather for the state over the past few elections. If you see both of those flip outright then it is probably a very close election.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[Longhorn_Fan68 33869]

So can we expect Friday and Saturday numbers today?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13511]

Friday's numbers have been released:

One thing I find interesting but unsure of how to best demonstrate is  consistency over the days.  Some counties are underperforming overall but they're consistently hitting the same numbers whereas some counties started out great but appear to be losing steam.

For example, Harris had their best day on Friday but basically they have the same number everyday.  Bexar is similar.  Whereas El Paso came out of the gate hot, but Friday was 34% less than Monday.   Some of the high turnout counties may get pulled back into the average by the end of early voting.

 

[NIUHuskies 504]

37 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Friday's numbers have been released:

One thing I find interesting but unsure of how to best demonstrate is  consistency over the days.  Some counties are underperforming overall but they're consistently hitting the same numbers whereas some counties started out great but appear to be losing steam.

For example, Harris had their best day on Friday but basically they have the same number everyday.  Bexar is similar.  Whereas El Paso came out of the gate hot, but Friday was 34% less than Monday.   Some of the high turnout counties may get pulled back into the average by the end of early voting.

 

Weather has finally broken into favorable voting conditions. People were out and about yesterday. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13511]

12 minutes ago, NIUHuskies said:

Weather has finally broken into favorable voting conditions. People were out and about yesterday. 

True.  I just looked up Harris county Saturday totals.  79k to beat the weeks previous high of 65.    lot of people are energized on both sides of the aisle.    Less than 50 Texas counties even have >79k in population. 

Sunday should be a big drop as it’s sunday and the polls are open less hours.  But who knows.  this midterm is proving that historical results isn’t always the norm.

Edited October 28, 2018 by Nice Guy Eddie

[atomheartbevo 89652]

2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

I doubt it but it should be closer than 16. Williamson, along with Tarrant, is actually a pretty good bellweather for the state over the past few elections. If you see both of those flip outright then it is probably a very close election.

Friend in Williamson County said plenty are fed up with local politicians.  Don’t see it flipping, but he thinks plenty are fed up.  

[Js1 85313]

53 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

True.  I just looked up Harris county Saturday totals.  79k to beat the weeks previous high of 65.    lot of people are energized on both sides of the aisle.    Less than 50 Texas counties even have >79k in population. 

Sunday should be a big drop as it’s sunday and the polls are open less hours.  But who knows.  this midterm is proving that historical results isn’t always the norm.

My mom said the line in NW Houston was all the way around the building at 1pm

[sushihorn 3233]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Friday's numbers have been released:

One thing I find interesting but unsure of how to best demonstrate is  consistency over the days.  Some counties are underperforming overall but they're consistently hitting the same numbers whereas some counties started out great but appear to be losing steam.

For example, Harris had their best day on Friday but basically they have the same number everyday.  Bexar is similar.  Whereas El Paso came out of the gate hot, but Friday was 34% less than Monday.   Some of the high turnout counties may get pulled back into the average by the end of early voting.

 

I've been using % of 2016 comps on both a cumulative and one day basis.  That's where I saw the sharp drop in El Paso.  117% this year vs day 1 2016.  Then 91% day 2, 90%, 81% and 83% since.  Top 15 counties started out at 98% vs 2016 on day 1 and have gone 94%, 82%, 82%, 86% since.

[Voldemort86 2259]

I guess this Harris county news is a good thing since Houston is blue now?

[sushihorn 3233]

9 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I guess this Harris county news is a good thing since Houston is blue now?

In isolation that might be true.  But other counties are doing much better. Of the top 15 counties, Harris has the 2nd worst performance relative to 2016 at 80.4% through Friday.  The mean is 89.0% and only Hidalgo at 77.4% is worse.  IOW, Harris county will have less impact on the vote this year than in 2016 unless current trends reverse sharply.

[David Dennison 18854]

8 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

In isolation that might be true.  But other counties are doing much better. Of the top 15 counties, Harris has the 2nd worst performance relative to 2016 at 80.4% through Friday.  The mean is 89.0% and only Hidalgo at 77.4% is worse.  IOW, Harris county will have less impact on the vote this year than in 2016 unless current trends reverse sharply.

Again, 2018 should not be compared to 2016. Mid-terms and presidential elections are two very different things.

[sushihorn 3233]

6 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Again, 2018 should not be compared to 2016. Mid-terms and presidential elections are two very different things.

The turnout is much closer to 2016 than to the 2014 midterms.  So I will use the more relevant model.

[sushihorn 3233]

Harris Co turnout is quite poor compared to the rest of the state.  Measure it straight up, relative to other large counties or relative to itself in 2016 and 2014.  The result is still the same.  On a straight cumulative turnout, Harris is worse than 26 of the other 29 top counties.  Only Bell (transient military), Cameron and Webb were worse. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13511]

Sorry for 2 data posts today but I didn't know the state would release Saturday's numbers today.  I underestimated the secretary of state's office.

The large border counties are trailing across the board now in total turnout % with Harris having a huge Saturday.  Is there any proven reason why these counties have such a low turnout?  Is it because they never purge their registered voters or registered voters just don't show up?  It's not like we're discussing % of population voting but people that have actually gone to the the extent of registering.   

Not a surprising stat since most of the large counties are more than 2x their 2014-to-date numbers, but with 6 days now in the book, we've greatly surpassed the total 2014 early voting (12 days.)  2.4m (and counting) vs <1.75M votes.

[gmr548 16576]

57 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Harris Co turnout is quite poor compared to the rest of the state.  Measure it straight up, relative to other large counties or relative to itself in 2016 and 2014.  The result is still the same.  On a straight cumulative turnout, Harris is worse than 26 of the other 29 top counties.  Only Bell (transient military), Cameron and Webb were worse. 

Hopefully it is all the suburban swamp aggy in Cypress, Spring, Baytown, etc. staying home. Harris is so big and encompasses so many different areas that it is hard to gleam a trend from topline numbers. It is interesting that it is down though. 

 

Edit: Am dumb and didn't see the post about Saturday votes. Perhaps folks have just been waiting for the weekend. Bad weather down there by chance?

Edited October 28, 2018 by gmr548

[RayDog 682]

Hillary won Harris by 160,000 votes and her net for the largest 26 counties, which have 75% of the vote, was 260,000. 

Factoring ongoing demographic shifts I expect Beto to win Harris by 270,000 +/- 30,000. He should also be up by that amount in Dallas county. Given the almost 2016 turnout he really needs to be up by 500,000 votes in those two counties combined to have a chance.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13511]

1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

The turnout is much closer to 2016 than to the 2014 midterms.  So I will use the more relevant model.

I think we're in unknown territory with whether this is more like 2014 or 2016.  Obviously the numbers will be much higher than 2014 but it's not as high as 2016 either.  Still it's fun to look into the numbers. 

I was listening to Nate Silver (538) talk about early voting and its affect on his election models.  He said that he gives them 0 weight when he aggregates polls.  He said the one difference that early voting makes is that if someone tells a pollster that they voted early for X, that person will be given more weight than just labeling them a "likely voter."  but overall he thinks early voting doesn't necessary demonstrate an advantage of one party over another.   He said that he would take bets if someone can take the early voting numbers and predict different results from his models.

 

[Biff Tannen 45676]

This thread has made me go cross-eyed.  So it's a big deal that the turnout is closer to 2016 than 2014, but also it's not?