Early Voting 2018 thread of doom

[Nice Guy Eddie 13519]

Day 7 (Sunday) early voting totals:

The southern counties had low, low numbers for Sunday.  Cameron reporting in with only 400 votes yesterday.   Harris creeping closer up to the average after a strong weekend.

FYI, assuming these counties voted Cruz/Beto in the exact percentages as Trump/Hillary, Beto is currently only up 1.31m to 1.12m.  That isn't enough to overcome the remaining heavily red smaller counties which went Trump/Hillary at ~68% / 27%.  Trump won those counties by ~1.3m.   I fully realized the turnout and voting percentages will not duplicate 2016.  This is for discussion only.

[Js1 85495]

At least from my experience, Sunday is very different for heavily Hispanic communities - church, the market, family time.  Sunday is traditionally a slow day.  Great on Harris County for hitting 34k, but I didn't expect non-urban counties to get high totals.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13519]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

At least from my experience, Sunday is very different for heavily Hispanic communities - church, the market, family time.  Sunday is traditionally a slow day.  Great on Harris County for hitting 34k, but I didn't expect non-urban counties to get high totals.

I hear you and I didn't mean to come across as critical of someone not wanting to vote on a Sunday.    But it's too bad that Hispanic communities do not have a tradition like "Souls to the Polls" where many in the African-American neighborhoods march to voting location after church.  Maybe they need a catchy, rhyming name to brand it.

Personally I'm in favor of as many people voting as possible even if I disagree with their vote.  If anything it holds our politicians more accountable and actually should create more of a moderate influence as the average citizen is more moderate than our politicians.

[Longhorn94 2457]

16 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Day 7 (Sunday) early voting totals:

The southern counties had low, low numbers for Sunday.  Cameron reporting in with only 400 votes yesterday.   Harris creeping closer up to the average after a strong weekend.

FYI, assuming these counties voted Cruz/Beto in the exact percentages as Trump/Hillary, Beto is currently only up 1.31m to 1.12m.  That isn't enough to overcome the remaining heavily red smaller counties which went Trump/Hillary at ~68% / 27%.  Trump won those counties by ~1.3m.   I fully realized the turnout and voting percentages will not duplicate 2016.  This is for discussion only.

well, of course, if everyone votes in the exact same percentages as Trump/Hillary, Cruz will win by the same percentage that Trump did. 

Edited October 29, 2018 by Longhorn94

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

17 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Day 7 (Sunday) early voting totals:

The southern counties had low, low numbers for Sunday.  Cameron reporting in with only 400 votes yesterday.   Harris creeping closer up to the average after a strong weekend.

FYI, assuming these counties voted Cruz/Beto in the exact percentages as Trump/Hillary, Beto is currently only up 1.31m to 1.12m.  That isn't enough to overcome the remaining heavily red smaller counties which went Trump/Hillary at ~68% / 27%.  Trump won those counties by ~1.3m.   I fully realized the turnout and voting percentages will not duplicate 2016.  This is for discussion only.

It's not bad though.  Beto is up here .19m.  But it is only 23% of registered voters.  Counting 23% of registered voters in the other counties, Cruz would be up .5m.   Net is 310,000 votes in favor of Cruz statewide if everything is the same as Trump/Hillary.  

 

Assuming all of the other counties vote at their Trump/Hillary levels, it looks like Beto needs to win 60.2% of the votes in the above listed counties.  Right now NGE has him at 53.9%

1 minute ago, Longhorn94 said:

well, of course, if everyone turns out and votes in the exact same percentages as Trump/Hillary, Cruz will win by the same percentage that Trump did. 

NGE is adding in the voting rates of the listed counties too.

Edited October 29, 2018 by SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

anyhow, a lot of this is meaningless pencil pushing because we just want to think about this election.  the truth is that the numbers are totally inscrutable because of all the new voters and all the people apparently willing to vote differently than their history, and the first time ever Texas has mattered.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13519]

1 minute ago, Longhorn94 said:

well, of course, if everyone turns out and votes in the exact same percentages as Trump/Hillary, Cruz will win by the same percentage that Trump did. 

There was pre-election talk that Beto needed to find upwards of 1m votes in order to beat Cruz.  Was only demonstrating that based on current turnout and 2016 percentages, he hasn't found that 1 million yet.  But everyone is free to create their own vote breakdown by county to estimate the current results.

[Js1 85495]

2 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

anyhow, a lot of this is meaningless pencil pushing because we just want to think about this election.  the truth is that the numbers are totally inscrutable because of all the new voters and all the people apparently willing to vote differently than their history, and the first time ever Texas has mattered.

Regardless of the outcome, if we exceed (by a good amount) our 2014 voting turnout, I would be thrilled.  We were dead fucking last and didn't even hit 40%.

[Longhorn94 2457]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

There was pre-election talk that Beto needed to find upwards of 1m votes in order to beat Cruz.  Was only demonstrating that based on current turnout and 2016 percentages, he hasn't found that 1 million yet.  But everyone is free to create their own vote breakdown by county to estimate the current results.

I understand what you are saying and I appreciate your efforts. I was just pointing out that if everything holds as it did last election, then Beto loses. Things have to change for Beto to win. That could be more Dems voting than Reps or Independents going heavily for Beto or new voters going for Beto or moderates going for Beto or a percentage of Reps going for Beto. Some or all of those things have to happen for Beto to win. Personally, I think all of them will go in Beto's favor to varying degrees and he will pull out a win +3 points. 

I have never seen enthusiasm for a candidate like Beto in Texas. I live in Bee Cave and thought I was the only Democrat until now. 

[MidTexHorn 822]

My wife just cast her first ever straight ticket Dem vote this morning in Midland. No line, took her 5 minutes. Didn't appear to be any funny business with the electronic ballot.

[Longhorn94 2457]

9 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

It's not bad though.  Beto is up here .19m.  But it is only 23% of registered voters.  Counting 23% of registered voters in the other counties, Cruz would be up .5m.   Net is 310,000 votes in favor of Texas nationwide if everything is the same as Trump/Hillary.  

 

Assuming all of the other counties vote at their Trump/Hillary levels, it looks like Beto needs to win 60.2% of the votes in the above listed counties.  Right now NGE has him at 53.9%

NGE is adding in the voting rates of the listed counties too.

I understand but what is important to look at is how far has the Rep EV advantage fallen? Last I saw it was down approximately 15%. If Dems have erased 15% (+23% to +8%) of the Reps advantage in EV AND are able to keep their advantage on election day, then the numbers look really good for Beto. We just don't know if that will happen at this point. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13519]

2 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:

I have never seen enthusiasm for a candidate like Beto in Texas. I live in Bee Cave and thought I was the only Democrat until now. 

I think others have similar feelings.   Many democrats in Texas either have skipped voting or they just keep quiet about their votes.  Beto has allowed opened up many eyes that they're not the only Democrats, or at least Beto voter in their circle of friends or neighbors.

[atomheartbevo 89776]

2 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

I'd really like to see historical data on this. We are seeing up to 10% (Travis) being new voters with no history at all. If that was a typical trend, you'd expect our voter base to completely cycle every 10 years or so. There is no way that happens. 

Travis went from 1 million folks to 1.2 million between 2010-2017.  Not sure what surrounding counties did, but sure they grew as well. Williamson went from 420,000 to 530,000 during that same period.  Don’t know how many were from out-of-State, but pretty sure a chunk of them are, and many who moved here don’t place registering and voting as a high priority. 

[sushihorn 3233]

57 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The southern counties had low, low numbers for Sunday.  Cameron reporting in with only 400 votes yesterday.   Harris creeping closer up to the average after a strong weekend.

FYI, assuming these counties voted Cruz/Beto in the exact percentages as Trump/Hillary, Beto is currently only up 1.31m to 1.12m.  That isn't enough to overcome the remaining heavily red smaller counties which went Trump/Hillary at ~68% / 27%.  Trump won those counties by ~1.3m.   I fully realized the turnout and voting percentages will not duplicate 2016.  This is for discussion only.

If you look at the top 30 counties you'll see a lot of heavily white, non-metro counties with very low turnout on Sunday and probably for similar reasons.  Lubbock 0.70%, Randall (Amarillo) 0.82%, Brazos (Collie Station) 0.68%.

[Celery Man 20991]

13 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Travis went from 1 million folks to 1.2 million between 2010-2017.  Not sure what surrounding counties did, but sure they grew as well. Williamson went from 420,000 to 530,000 during that same period.  Don’t know how many were from out-of-State, but pretty sure a chunk of them are, and many who moved here don’t place registering and voting as a high priority. 

feels like more than 200,000 people moved here in that time

[sushihorn 3233]

43 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

It's not bad though.  Beto is up here .19m.  But it is only 23% of registered voters.  Counting 23% of registered voters in the other counties, Cruz would be up .5m.   Net is 310,000 votes in favor of Cruz statewide if everything is the same as Trump/Hillary.  

 

Assuming all of the other counties vote at their Trump/Hillary levels, it looks like Beto needs to win 60.2% of the votes in the above listed counties.  Right now NGE has him at 53.9%

Sounds about right.  The top 15 counties gave Hillary a 500k margin in 2016.  She lost the rest of the state by 1.3 million.

[Js1 85495]

35 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I think others have similar feelings.   Many democrats in Texas either have skipped voting or they just keep quiet about their votes.  Beto has allowed opened up many eyes that they're not the only Democrats, or at least Beto voter in their circle of friends or neighbors.

Good article on something similar: https://www.texastribune.org/2018/10/28/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-fight-over-conservative-tarrant-county-texas/

Quote

It was that luncheon in America's most conservative urban bastion that marked the beginning of a coming-out process for many Fort Worth residents who are now furiously campaigning for Democrats like O’Rourke, state Senate candidate Beverly Powell and a slew of other down-ballot candidates.

Sonia Williams-Barbers is the retired former owner of the Black Bookworm bookstore on the south side. She found reason to be at least hopeful about O’Rourke’s chances after a grocery run to the neighborhood around Texas Christian University on the southwest side of Fort Worth.

"I saw so many Beto signs in the yard, I was almost tempted to take pictures," she said. "I thought this was Cruz’s country. That’s encouraging."

TCU is nestled within the wealthier, predominantly white enclaves of Fort Worth. It's a place where at least some of the residents are beginning to reveal their Democratic leanings for the first time since the days of Ann Richards, the state's last Democratic governor.

 

[Dahobbs 17644]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Travis went from 1 million folks to 1.2 million between 2010-2017.  Not sure what surrounding counties did, but sure they grew as well. Williamson went from 420,000 to 530,000 during that same period.  Don’t know how many were from out-of-State, but pretty sure a chunk of them are, and many who moved here don’t place registering and voting as a high priority. 

Right, but that is over a 7 year span. 10% new voters from 2016 to 2018 isn't explained by that (and it doesn't appear but you are suggesting that it is). 

[Guest Lobo]

If the Democrats really wanted to help Beto win this thing, they'd help Dikeman siphon off a few hundred thousands votes from Cruz (a Libertarian can typically get up 200,000 votes in Texas in statewide anyway).  You're telling me there's not another 200 or 300k more voters out there disgruntled with Ted, Trump, and the rest of the GOP right now?  That's how Beto narrows the gap.  It's 6-10% of likely voter gap for him and it's not budging.  Help Dikeman get some Cruz voters and you could actually win this thing.  But nope, it's cool t-shirts or bust baby!  

[Longhorn_Fan68 33884]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

If the Democrats really wanted to help Beto win this thing, they'd help Dikeman siphon off a few hundred thousands votes from Cruz (a Libertarian can typically get up 200,000 votes in Texas in statewide anyway).  You're telling me there's not another 200 or 300k more voters out there disgruntled with Ted, Trump, and the rest of the GOP right now?  That's how Beto narrows the gap.  It's 6-10% of likely voter gap for him and it's not budging.  Help Dikeman get some Cruz voters and you could actually win this thing.  But nope, it's cool t-shirts or bust baby!  

you obviously haven't been paying attention if you think his entire campaign can be summarized into t-shirts

[Texas73 421]

3 hours ago, Lobo said:

If the Democrats really wanted to help Beto win this thing, they'd help Dikeman siphon off a few hundred thousands votes from Cruz (a Libertarian can typically get up 200,000 votes in Texas in statewide anyway).  You're telling me there's not another 200 or 300k more voters out there disgruntled with Ted, Trump, and the rest of the GOP right now?  That's how Beto narrows the gap.  It's 6-10% of likely voter gap for him and it's not budging.  Help Dikeman get some Cruz voters and you could actually win this thing.  But nope, it's cool t-shirts or bust baby!  

Explain how Democrats can help Dikeman take Trump's votes. 

[Guest Lobo]

2 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

you obviously haven't been paying attention if you think his entire campaign can be summarized into t-shirts

Nope, haven't really been paying attention.  Barely even seen the news.  Robert sounds great on paper though.  Wouldn't know as much as you about the minutiae of his policy stances.  

[Bama Chick 28596]

Calling him “Robert” exposes exactly what you are - a low information parrot.

 

The perfect Cruz voter.

 

[atomheartbevo 89776]

5 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

Right, but that is over a 7 year span. 10% new voters from 2016 to 2018 isn't explained by that (and it doesn't appear but you are suggesting that it is). 

That doesn’t show all of the people moving in over the past 10-20 years (and doesn’t reflect those moving away from Austin).  It would not surprise me if we are bringing in more liberal or libertarian folks than conservatives.

 I have a feeling that it’s partly a combination of people who are moving in from places like California, and maybe more engaged with a Democratic candidate, combined with a large population of younger folks who just haven’t been engaged (outside of Obama).   We have people in their early 20s who didn’t have the chance to be engaged by Obama’s campaign.  

There’s also the other aspect - older liberals who don’t  have a machine of sorts to get them out voting.  As mentioned up thread, the Dem machine, on a statewide level started going downhill in the 90s when the GOP began taking over.   Democrats like Bullock and individuals in the state legislature had their own machines to help them out, as well as being a bit more conservative than Democrats usually are, but they weren’t able to hold off the GOP.  

Here we are with Cruz, who isn’t running away with the race in the polls, and who needs Trump, Trump Jr, Sean Hannity, Cornyn, Abbott, etc. helping him to maintain a single-digit lead in the polls.  

[Js1 85495]

65703 today in Harris county. Second only to last Saturday. Beat last work week’s best day by 56 votes. 

[bolverk 29707]

21 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

That doesn’t show all of the people moving in over the past 10-20 years (and doesn’t reflect those moving away from Austin).  It would not surprise me if we are bringing in more liberal or libertarian folks than conservatives.

 

This is the correct way of looking at the population changes in the state's metropolitan regions. Typically, the urban core (Travis, Dallas, Harris, Bexar, and Tarrant) are the gateways for new residents from outside the state/nation. Overtime, existing residents move to the suburbs as they're ready to establish their families in "good" school districts to Collin, Williamson, Ft. Bend, etc. And, as has been shown and contrary to popular opinion, voters do NOT become more conservative as they get older. On the contrary, their defining experiences around college-age anchor their views for the rest of their lives.

Moreover, the suburbs in and of themselves, especially those who are also employment centers (Williamson and Collin County come to mind) are now also the landing places for migrants from out of state (relocation of Toyota's HQs from California, for example?) which are also changing their demographics and politics.

This is the process by which our suburban counties are switching from red to blue, and it is inevitable. In 2016, we already saw Ft. Bend solidify itself as a democratic county, and Williamson, Collin, and Hays became "purple". The only question is the pace of that change. I've already stated that when (not if) Williamson, Hays, and Tarrant become blue, that will be Texas' tipping point. Once Collin goes, then we're a truly competitive state.

Will Beto be the one to get us there? I don't know. But he WILL get us closer, and I predict will tip at least Williamson and Hays to the democratic column. That's just my gut, but I'm confident in that. As Tarrant goes, so goes the state.

[Message Board User 12395]

Tennessee early voting numbers.

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

20 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Tennessee early voting numbers.

 

The Taylor swift effect?

[sushihorn 3233]

30 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Tennessee early voting numbers.

 

Comparing to 2014 isn't really helpful.  We all know the GOP wont get 250 House seats this year.  That's where a 2016 comp is more useful.

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

8 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I hear you and I didn't mean to come across as critical of someone not wanting to vote on a Sunday.    But it's too bad that Hispanic communities do not have a tradition like "Souls to the Polls" where many in the African-American neighborhoods march to voting location after church.  Maybe they need a catchy, rhyming name to brand it.

 

Corazones contra los cabrones

[Ghost of LL 15539]

Tennessee early voting numbers.
 

Shelby and Davidson with such huge numbers can only be good for Bredeson.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Voldemort86 2259]

Is Nevada still going well for the Dems?  Need the Harry Reid turnout machine to get a win.

 

it seems good news on the senate map has been scarce for Dems in the last month.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

Latino voting seems to be up compared to the rest.

Quote

The 15-county analysis also found an increase in voters with Hispanic surnames. Those voters have cast 19 percent of the ballots in early voting so far; in 2014, 15.2 percent of early voters in Texas had Hispanic surnames.

I wouldn't be surprised if the state 4% more Latino than in 2014, but it is nice to see they are voting like it now.

[Js1 85495]

10 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Is Nevada still going well for the Dems?  Need the Harry Reid turnout machine to get a win.

 

it seems good news on the senate map has been scarce for Dems in the last month.

 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

And this says youth voting is not up comparatively.

 

Quote

In the 2018 election, People aged 60 to 69 made up 21 percent of early voters so far, the largest age group, the 15-county analysis shows. Voters aged 50-59 made up the second largest group at just under 20 percent, and voters aged 40-49 percent made up the third largest group at about 15 percent. Early voters aged 20-29 made up about 8 percent. This breakdown was consistent with totals for the 2014 midterm elections.

So weird how we can't seem to get good data.

 

https://www.chron.com/news/politics/texas/article/Five-things-to-know-about-the-Texas-early-voting-13345501.php

[Ghost of LL 15539]

So at the risk of violating Nate Silver's injunction on reading too much on early vote totals, shouldn't Kopser be pretty happy about the early vote coming out of Travis and Bexar Counties?

The parts of Travis County that are in TX23 are heavily Democratic, and Travis County has had very high turnout.  While Bexar County is Democratic as a whole, the parts of Bexar County that are in TX23 tend to be Republican.

Of course, it's impossible to tell which precincts are voting early.  It could be that all of the early vote in Bexar is coming from the northern quarter, which is in TX23.  But it just strikes me that if I were Chip Roy, I'd much rather the Bexar and Travis numbers be reversed.

[bolverk 29707]

51 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

So at the risk of violating Nate Silver's injunction on reading too much on early vote totals, shouldn't Kopser be pretty happy about the early vote coming out of Travis and Bexar Counties?

The parts of Travis County that are in TX23 are heavily Democratic, and Travis County has had very high turnout.  While Bexar County is Democratic as a whole, the parts of Bexar County that are in TX23 tend to be Republican.

Of course, it's impossible to tell which precincts are voting early.  It could be that all of the early vote in Bexar is coming from the northern quarter, which is in TX23.  But it just strikes me that if I were Chip Roy, I'd much rather the Bexar and Travis numbers be reversed.

Good question. I feel like this one has been flying under the radar. I don't doubt that Roy is the favorite, but I live in SW Austin and have seen numerous Kopser signs in my neighborhood (which isn't unusual). I feel like this campaign has been really over-shadowed for whatever reason and am absolutely certain Kopser will benefit from Beto's coat-tails.

[Ghost of LL 15539]

4 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Good question. I feel like this one has been flying under the radar. I don't doubt that Roy is the favorite, but I live in SW Austin and have seen numerous Kopser signs in my neighborhood (which isn't unusual). I feel like this campaign has been really over-shadowed for whatever reason and am absolutely certain Kopser will benefit from Beto's coat-tails.

I think there was one of the NYT/Siena polls that had Roy comfortably ahead.  But that was some weeks ago, and I kind of think those polls have been (very mildly) pro-Republican.

Honestly--I have no feel for that race.  

[berlinerbaer 678]

 

15 hours ago, Message Board User said:

Tennessee early voting numbers.

 

All counties under 100% of 2014 are rural (no idea why). Davidson (Nashville), Hamilton (Chatanooga), Rutherford (suburban Nashville), Shelby (Memphis), and Williamson (suburban Nashville) are all over 200%. That's the top four urban population areas except Knoxville (Knox county is at 170%).

We'd all be jumping up and down if a similar situation was playing out in Texas. This is great news for Bredesen.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

17 minutes ago, berlinerbaer said:

 

All counties under 100% of 2014 are rural (no idea why). Davidson (Nashville), Hamilton (Chatanooga), Rutherford (suburban Nashville), Shelby (Memphis), and Williamson (suburban Nashville) are all over 200%. That's the top four urban population areas except Knoxville (Knox county is at 170%).

We'd all be jumping up and down if a similar situation was playing out in Texas. This is great news for Bredesen.

That's wild.  I read recently that nationwide a rural county voter is 15-20% more likely to vote than an urban one.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

Collin and Denton County together are about the side of Bexar, and they are voting like crazy.  I feel like if Harris doesn't pick it up soon it might already be over.

[thepop 4409]

30-45 minute wait at Randalls today. Finally voted though.

 

In '16 it took me 5 minutes in and out.

Edited October 30, 2018 by thepop

[Nice Guy Eddie 13519]

Day 8 (Monday) totals

Some counties are definitely losing some steam by comparing votes on Monday 10-22 to Monday 10-29.  Harris had 4% more votes on Mon 10-29 as opposed to Mon 10-22.  Dallas dropped 36%, and so on.   There can always be local factors like weather that affect a random day.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13519]

I can't edit now, but I wanted to add that I don't think that a county having a tremendous day 1 and 2 turnout is worse than a county being the same everyday.  Just pointing out that some counties look like they had high enthusiasm early on, but the remaining voters aren't quite as motivated yet.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

Some good Beto news that occurs to me:  

I have a suspicion that rural counties have more of a hard cap on the increase in Republican votership they can do.  (1) they tend to vote in larger percentages than urban, so it would be near impossible to see the sort of increases there as in cities in any event; (2) what room there is for growth in rural votes seem to be D votes, because rural votership fell in the past (but still above urban), but the fall was attributed almost entirely to the D party--see below.  (3) The last is just a bit of suspicion, but I feel like the more you are removed from urban areas this election, the more you miss the current winds.  There is less day-to-day engagement with yard signs, no real GOTV efforts.  Now that I put this together, I've sort of convinced myself that the bigger cities and their huge upswing in votes will swamp the smaller counties.

 

https://www.dailyyonder.com/rural-voter-turnout-drops-18-2012/2012/11/29/5514/

We then divided counties into three categories: urban, small cities (between 10,000 and 50,000 people) and rural. You can see that turnout dropped everywhere, but that turnout declined more as the population became more rural.

Turnout in small cities declined 13.7 percent, dropping from 61.1 percent to 52.7 percent. 

And turnout in rural counties fell from 67.2 percent in 2008 to 54.9 percent in 2012. That is a whopping 18.3 percent decline, double the national rate.

 

Rural residents still voted more than those in the cities, but the decline is remarkable. And, as the county groups grow less urban, the turnout decline grows larger.

Moreover, this decline in rural counties appears to be mostly a Democratic phenomenon. In an earlier story, we noted that the decline in the rural vote appeared to come largely from Democratic voters. 

 

https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/campaign/309190-cities-lead-the-nation-in-many-ways-but-not-in-voter-turnout:

The fact is, residents of most major American cities typically vote at rates 5 to 15 percent lower than their suburban neighbors. Because of that lower level of engagement, and because they vote predictably blue, voters in most American cities are taken for granted by Democrats, ignored by Republicans, and unfortunately, rarely courted in national elections.

[Ghost of LL 15539]

50 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Collin and Denton County together are about the side of Bexar, and they are voting like crazy.  I feel like if Harris doesn't pick it up soon it might already be over.

You assume that the marginal voter in Collin/Denton is more likely to vote R than the marginal voter in Harris.  I'm not entirely certain that's true.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33884]

Denton is a pretty liberal town, at least by Dallas standards. Lots of art and music and UNT and whatnot. I would be surprised if it's not a 50/50 split, maybe even leaning blue.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13519]

Assuming Harris keeps hitting their 60K/day in-person and a couple thousand mail-in plus the last day surge, the Harris early vote totals will hit about 850K or 36% of registered voters. 

Previous totals for Harris:

Year    Early Votes  % of Reg Voters

2016        977K             44%

2014        375K             18%

2012        766K             38%

2010        444K             23%

2008        733K             38%

2006        191K             10%

(midterms in bold)

 

 

 

[Js1 85495]

850k would be really good for a midterm, obviously.  Means on pace for 1.1 million or so.

[High Plains Drifter 11050]

Sorry if already explained...

 

Why are we all assuming that high early voting numbers is good for Dems?