Early Voting 2018 thread of doom

[gmr548 16463]

"have an IQ over 80"

Dan Goeb won't disenfranchise himself.

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[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

9 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Dan Goeb won't disenfranchise himself.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

Someone asked if I had political aspirations one time.  I said “I don’t think I’m dumb enough.”

[TornACL 7673]

No wait at all this morning at the UNTHSC in Fort Worth. 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

 

El Paso be votin’

 

[El Tri 398]

no line at 8 am today at ACC highland

 

[Biff Tannen 45477]

Over an hour at Randalls William Cannon and Mopac again.

[Guest]

After a no-go in Teh Woodlands on Monday, line long as hell out the door...

I went to east county annex in New Caney today.  Still a long ass line, but had time today.

[\whispering voice] they was bleks in line with me and we spoke with one another [of complete fear]

[Js1 85056]

#1 - I am sick of staring at Stan Stanart's pedo looking face

#2 - Harris County in person early voting remained pretty steady - 62476 yesterday, 64781 Tuesday, 63188 Monday.

No one had any big drops - Metropolitan Multi Service Center increased by almost 100 votes, still strong at about 3500/day. Trini Mendenhall +200 on the day to almost 3000. Baytown had a 200 person drop. Fiesta Mart near NRG still at 1400 votes and Alief creeping up to 1500.  The aggys in Champions/Cypress still voting strong - Champion Forest Baptist Church 2800 votes; Juergen's Hall in Cypress just shy of 3000.

Harris County just shy of quarter million votes (in person + mail returned) after 3 days.  On track for about ~850,000 to 950,000 early voters.  2016 - 953,593 early voters (43% of all votes cast). 2014 - 360,062 early voters (17% of all votes cast).

Edited October 25, 2018 by Js1

[Biff Tannen 45477]

How does this compare to most early voting cycles?  Does it normally stay steady like this or does it drop off after the first day?

[Huckleberry 32685]

Juergen's Hall is where I early vote. I don't really try to estimate voting patterns based on appearances, but it wasn't full of retirees or anything like that. Obviously can't tell in that area, but I would say it looked less staunchly Republican than in previous years despite the lady in the GOP shirt right in front of me.

Other interesting things I saw were a group of two cars worth of CFISD employees all get out together after work at the polls and an Audi SUV swiping a telephone pole in the parking lot.

[Js1 85056]

Was it Heidi?

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

8 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

How does this compare to most early voting cycles?  Does it normally stay steady like this or does it drop off after the first day?

Here's Harris 2014

20,215

20,380

20,545

19,003

23,994

23,641

9,349 < - Sunday

26,138

28,157

29,063

35,147

51,628

 

Looks like level for a week, then ramps up until early voting stops.

[Biff Tannen 45477]

Wow, would not have expected that

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

Statewide is similar.  Would have posted these first but I didn't see them:

113,622
114,295
108,613
102,657
117,716
103,701
41,066
120,340
129,433
141,364
167,241
244,028

 

Total of 1,504,076

These are in-person.  Mail ins are another 211,655.  So about 7x in person versus mail in.  

 

Who knows how much this is simply taking away from the election day in-person, so be wary of simple scaling at this point about how many expected voters.  I know it did for me specifically.  I'd always voted election day.  This time I voted Tuesday.  Robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Edited October 25, 2018 by SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

[Js1 85056]

Well, in Harris County in 2016, there was about 953,000 early voters and only about 350,000 in-person voters.  So yeah, you might be cannibalizing your early day totals some.

[Captainant 27309]

2 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Who knows how much this is simply taking away from the election day in-person, so be wary of simple scaling at this point about how many expected voters.  I know it did for me specifically.  I'd always voted election day.  This time I voted Tuesday.  Robbing Peter to pay Paul.

I have no doubt that the early voting is taking some votes away from the election day numbers - BUT - the huge early voting indicates increased enthusiasm in general, which tends to favor (D) over (R)

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

4 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I have no doubt that the early voting is taking some votes away from the election day numbers - BUT - the huge early voting indicates increased enthusiasm in general, which tends to favor (D) over (R)

Agreed.  I imagine we will pass 2014 numbers before election day.  Enthusiasm is clearly up.

[GSU&UT 1798]

What is y'alls guess for national voter turnout? Something like 50% would be the highest since the 1910s, I honestly think we get close to 60%.

[Js1 85056]

4 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

What is y'alls guess for national voter turnout? Something like 50% would be the highest since the 1910s, I honestly think we get close to 60%.

60% is presidential level (04, 08, 16 and just a tad higher than 12).

~41% is the midterm standard this millennium (02, 06, 10) and 2014 was just miserable (37%).

If we hit 50%, that would be a good time. Anything between 50 and 60 is going to be overwhelmingly amazing. I wish.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

2 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

What is y'alls guess for national voter turnout? Something like 50% would be the highest since the 1910s, I honestly think we get close to 60%.

I think we are projecting more enthusiasm nationwide than probably is real because Texans are so pumped up.  Texas is historically dead last in midterm turnout and now we are everyone's focus.  But I'd agree that 50% -- a modern record -- is reasonable based on what people smarter than I are saying.  

[GSU&UT 1798]

1 minute ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

I think we are projecting more enthusiasm nationwide than probably is real because Texans are so pumped up.  Texas is historically dead last in midterm turnout and now we are everyone's focus.  But I'd agree that 50% -- a modern record -- is reasonable based on what people smarter than I are saying.  

This isn't just Texas. I've posted Georgia numbers and that professor at UF who studies US elections has shown that turnout is up basically everywhere in the country.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Harris County just shy of quarter million votes (in person + mail returned) after 3 days.  On track for about ~850,000 to 950,000 early voters.  2016 - 953,593 early voters (43% of all votes cast). 2014 - 360,062 early voters (17% of all votes cast).

I don't think you stated the facts exactly right from 2016.  43% was the early turnout of the registered voters, not 43% of the total votes.    Early accounted for over 70% of the votes.  

Harris County

• Early Vote:  953K  (includes mail-in)
• Election Day: 358K
• Total votes: 1.3m
• Total registered: 2.2m

I was surprised when I saw this because I didn't realize how much early voting counted.  But then again almost everyone I know votes early.

[Js1 85056]

4 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

This isn't just Texas. I've posted Georgia numbers and that professor at UF who studies US elections has shown that turnout is up basically everywhere in the country.

Except you/we/them/anyone) doesn't know if these are just people excited to vote and doing it early instead of on Election Day. If even 1/3rd of the normal Election Day voters are voting right now instead, it sure looks like "omg turnout is up!" in the moment, but not overall.  

Virginia hit 47% last year for an off-year gubernatorial election.  Highest in decades. 

I still think 60% is ridiculous for a midterm.  Just no way. Fuck me, if we hit 60%, I might donate to Trump as a "thank you" for actually inspiring people to vote in non-presidential years.

Edited October 25, 2018 by Js1

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

1 minute ago, GSU&UT said:

This isn't just Texas. I've posted Georgia numbers and that professor at UF who studies US elections has shown that turnout is up basically everywhere in the country.

Yeah, 50% would be a modern record.  That's what I said could happen.  That's what your UF professor predicted.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

I see Beto/Cruz as having two facts to focus on:

• Trump beat Hillary by 800K votes in Texas.  ~9m votes cast.
• 690K new registered voters since 2016.  

Cruz needs to keep the Trump turnout and/or some combination of picking up some of the new voters.

Beto needs some Trump voters to stay home/convert to Beto voters, convince all Hillary voters to vote for him and win a high percentage of the new voters.

 

As for enthusiasm its fair to say Dems have a higher enthusiasm level for Beto than GOP for Cruz, but conservatives voters have also recognized thisso they are trying to counteract it.    Their enthusiasm is about stopping the Dems not specifically for Cruz winning.  Playing the prevent defense sometimes works, sometimes it doesn't.

[GSU&UT 1798]

9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Except you/we/them/anyone) doesn't know if these are just people excited to vote and doing it early instead of on Election Day. If even 1/3rd of the normal Election Day voters are voting right now instead, it sure looks like "omg turnout is up!" in the moment, but not overall.  

Virginia hit 47% last year for an off-year gubernatorial election.  Highest in decades. 

I still think 60% is ridiculous for a midterm.  Just no way. Fuck me, if we hit 60%, I might donate to Trump as a "thank you" for actually inspiring people to vote in non-presidential years.

I'm basing these numbers off of a huge steady hold of ~30% who did not vote in 2014, at least here. The guy running georgiavotes.com posted last night that 10% of the voters didn't even vote in 2016, that's insane if it holds and indicates a huge turnout is coming. Georgia had ~76% turnout in 2016.

Edited October 25, 2018 by GSU&UT

[shnsajax 3589]

I think we are projecting more enthusiasm nationwide than probably is real because Texans are so pumped up.  Texas is historically dead last in midterm turnout and now we are everyone's focus.  But I'd agree that 50% -- a modern record -- is reasonable based on what people smarter than I are saying.  

Texas was at 28.3% in 2014. 35% would be pretty fucking huge, over 40% would be unbelievable. The GOP is going to be worried if it gets close to 35%.

[Js1 85056]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I see Beto/Cruz as having two facts to focus on:

• Trump beat Hillary by 800K votes in Texas.  ~9m votes cast.
• 690K new registered voters since 2016.  

Cruz needs to keep the Trump turnout and/or some combination of picking up some of the new voters.

Beto needs some Trump voters to stay home/convert to Beto voters, convince all Hillary voters to vote for him and win a high percentage of the new voters.

 

As for enthusiasm its fair to say Dems have a higher enthusiasm level for Beto than GOP for Cruz, but conservatives voters have also recognized thisso they are trying to counteract it.    Their enthusiasm is about stopping the Dems not specifically for Cruz winning.  Playing the prevent defense sometimes works, sometimes it doesn't.

Looking at 2016 exit polling in Texas:

Women made up 53% and Hillary was only +2.  Beto needs to do wayyyy better with women and should considering the trends
Independents were 1/3rd of the electorate and were +14 for Trump.  They're not breaking for Republicans as much this year.
Trump won college grades by 12 and postgrads by 1.  Hopefully the college educated voters breaking against the GOP continues this year.  College grads were 1/3rd of the electorate in Texas. -- He won white women with college degrees by 24.  That won't repeat itself.

 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

4 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

I'm basing these numbers off of a huge steady hold of ~30% who did not vote in 2014, at least here. The guy running georgiavotes.com posted last night that 10% of the voters didn't even vote in 2016, that's insane if it holds and indicates a huge turnout is coming. Georgia had ~76% turnout in 2016.

10% of 2018 voters didn't vote in 2016 (a presidential year)?  That is huge.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Looking at 2016 exit polling in Texas:

Women made up 53% and Hillary was only +2.  Beto needs to do wayyyy better with women and should considering the trends
Independents were 1/3rd of the electorate and were +14 for Trump.  They're not breaking for Republicans as much this year.
Trump won college grades by 12 and postgrads by 1.  Hopefully the college educated voters breaking against the GOP continues this year.  College grads were 1/3rd of the electorate in Texas. -- He won white women with college degrees by 24.  That won't repeat itself.

 

Beto needs to thread the needle and Cruz just needs the expected to occur.   I think it will be an exciting finish.  I wouldn't be shocked if it turns out 51-49.  or closer.

[GSU&UT 1798]

3 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

10% of 2018 voters didn't vote in 2016 (a presidential year)?  That is huge.

Yes, he didn't give us the breakdown but I would have to assume the overwhelming are younger voters who are eligible to vote right now. This is going to be an interesting election to see if the recent school shootings (MSD in particular) drove younger people to turnout in much bigger numbers for an election.

[TornACL 7673]

48 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

 

 

As for enthusiasm its fair to say Dems have a higher enthusiasm level for Beto than GOP for Cruz, but conservatives voters have also recognized thisso they are trying to counteract it.    Their enthusiasm is about stopping the Dems not specifically for Cruz winning.  Playing the prevent defense sometimes works, sometimes it doesn't.

This. I have never seen anyone enthusiastic about Ted Cruz, just like I have never seen anyone enthusiastic about primer paint, rice cakes, or door stops. 

[Huckleberry 32685]

Went through and pulled data from the SOS Texas website. Explanation after the image.

The Top 12 Counties was simply the following counties because they were the ones that had early voting data for each of the last 10 elections: Collin, Dallas, Denton, El Paso, Fort Bend, Harris, Hidalgo, Montgomery, Nueces, Tarrant, Travis. This leaves out some counties that have grown recently such as Williamson. Fair warning but I wanted to keep the data as controlled as possible by using the same counties in each election.

Initial takeaways before any detailed analysis:

1. This is a good look as the counties here represent roughly half of the registered voters in the state in each election. That percentage has gone up over the last 20 years as anyone could tell you just from being in Texas. Percentage of registered voters in these counties was 51.8% in 1998 and 54.4% in 2016.

2. The turnout percentage tracks well to the state as a whole. In the first half of these elections smaller county turnout tended to be higher than in these 12 counties. That has flipped in more recent elections but it's still pretty close overall.

3. The percentage of voters who vote early is higher in Presidential election years.

4. Early voting has become much more utilized over time.

5. The higher the overall turnout, and therefore voting enthusiasm, the higher the percentage of voters who vote early.

Putting all those things together and it's going to be a heck of a lot harder to predict overall turnout than I thought it would be heading into the data acquisition. The raw number of voters indicates that the percentage of total ballots that will be submitted early should track toward Presidential election years, but I don't think you can completely discount the fact that midterms see a lower percentage of early voters.

Oh yeah, one more thing. What this tells me is that I'm expecting a full 85% of votes cast in Texas in the 2020 election to be done early. That one is going to be crazy when the Trump lovers and Trump haters all want to vote.

Edited October 25, 2018 by Huckleberry

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

5 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

 

Putting all those things together and it's going to be a heck of a lot harder to predict overall turnout than I thought it would be heading into the data acquisition. The raw number of voters indicates that the percentage of total ballots that will be submitted early should track toward Presidential election years, but I don't think you can completely discount the fact that midterms see a lower percentage of early voters.

FWIW, my guess is that early voting will track close to Presidential years but election day will be closer to the normal midterm.   Better than 2014 though.

[Huckleberry 32685]

Then that's basically the 2016 turnout overall. The number of election day voters is remarkably consistent lately. The difference in turnout is almost all early voters.

1998 - 1,360,910
2000 - 2,107,993
2002 - 1,520,793
2004 - 1,898,589
2006 - 1,361,680
2008 - 1,356,871
2010 - 1,181,387
2012 - 1,464,849
2014 - 1,125,208
2016 - 1,151,108

Edited October 25, 2018 by Huckleberry

[Huckleberry 32685]

% of Registered Voters who voted on Election Day in the Top 12 Counties:

1998 - 22.7%
2000 - 32.5%
2002 - 23.1%
2004 - 27.7%
2006 - 19.8%
2008 - 19.0%
2010 - 16.8%
2012 - 20.1%
2014 - 14.9%
2016 - 14.0%

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Looking at 2016 exit polling in Texas:

Women made up 53% and Hillary was only +2.  Beto needs to do wayyyy better with women and should considering the trends
Independents were 1/3rd of the electorate and were +14 for Trump.  They're not breaking for Republicans as much this year.
Trump won college grades by 12 and postgrads by 1.  Hopefully the college educated voters breaking against the GOP continues this year.  College grads were 1/3rd of the electorate in Texas. -- He won white women with college degrees by 24.  That won't repeat itself.

 

Trump won college grads by 12 and independents by 14?

i hope people just REALLY hated Hilary or had democrat fatigue. I can’t imagine why trump would win both educated texans and unaffiliated texans. Doesn’t make sense at all.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

Day 3 (Wednesday) early votes totals for top 16 counties.

• Drop off across the board from Day 1 & 2.  With weather being better today for most of the state, I'm curious to see Thursday's results
• El Paso and Fort Bend close to their 2016%s.  
• Harris, Bexar and Hidalgo are slipping significantly from the 2016 %s.  Harris down 42K votes from same time in 2016.

[David Dennison 18603]

1 minute ago, Voldemort86 said:

Trump won college grads by 12 and independents by 14?

i hope people just REALLY hated Hilary or had democrat fatigue. I can’t imagine why trump would win both educated texans and unaffiliated texans. Doesn’t make sense at all.

Wypipo.

[David Dennison 18603]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Day 3 (Wednesday) early votes totals for top 16 counties.

• Drop off across the board from Day 1 & 2.  With weather being better today for most of the state, I'm curious to see Thursday's results
• El Paso and Fort Bend close to their 2016%s.  
• Harris, Bexar and Hidalgo are slipping significantly from the 2016 %s.  Harris down 42K votes from same time in 2016.

This should be comparing 2018 to 2014.

[Js1 85056]

3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Trump won college grads by 12 and independents by 14?

i hope people just REALLY hated Hilary or had democrat fatigue. I can’t imagine why trump would win both educated texans and unaffiliated texans. Doesn’t make sense at all.

Unaffiliated voters broke hard against Democrats at the end of the cycle.

As they are doing now, against the Republicans. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

Just now, David Dennison said:

This should be comparing 2018 to 2014.

I started off by comparing it to 2014 but it looked closer to a presidential year in terms of turnout so I changed to comparing to 2016.   I'm sure its blowing 2014 out of the water.

[NowThis 931]

3 hours ago, GSU&UT said:

What is y'alls guess for national voter turnout? Something like 50% would be the highest since the 1910s, I honestly think we get close to 60%.

more will vote than are citizens of voting age. 

Edited October 25, 2018 by NowThis

[Horn_Spanker 524]

This website:   https://www.arcgis.com/apps/Minimalist/index.html?appid=c181a61d343b4645aa7c1c3cd445aff6    Is horseshit!

Said less that 30 minutes, It took an hour.

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33825]

24 minutes ago, Horn_Spanker said:

This website:   https://www.arcgis.com/apps/Minimalist/index.html?appid=c181a61d343b4645aa7c1c3cd445aff6    Is horseshit!

Said less that 30 minutes, It took an hour.

 

did you teleport?

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

53 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Day 3 (Wednesday) early votes totals for top 16 counties.

• Drop off across the board from Day 1 & 2.  With weather being better today for most of the state, I'm curious to see Thursday's results
• El Paso and Fort Bend close to their 2016%s.  
• Harris, Bexar and Hidalgo are slipping significantly from the 2016 %s.  Harris down 42K votes from same time in 2016.

Does 2018 as a percent of 2016 mean as a percent of 2016 through Day 3 for each?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

10 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Does 2018 as a percent of 2016 mean as a percent of 2016 through Day 3 for each?

Yes.  comparing Day 3 for all.  Since it was asked to compare it to 2014 as well, here is a new chart with both 2014 and 2016 for Day 3.  

Edited October 25, 2018 by Nice Guy Eddie

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Day 3 (Wednesday) early votes totals for top 16 counties.

• Drop off across the board from Day 1 & 2.  With weather being better today for most of the state, I'm curious to see Thursday's results
• El Paso and Fort Bend close to their 2016%s.  
• Harris, Bexar and Hidalgo are slipping significantly from the 2016 %s.  Harris down 42K votes from same time in 2016.

Some quick math shows that Beto hopes his GOTV is better than Cruz's and that there are plenty of Trump/Beto voters.  Because if everyone voted on geography the same as in 2016 (e.g., Harris County vote would go 42/54 like in 2016), then Cruz is just outpacing Trump in those counties.  All those Williamson and Galveston County voters and what not better not be all Cruz supporters.  

 

Trump/Hillary in those counties went 45.88-54.12.  Cruz/Beto would go 45.91-54.08.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33825]

El Paso is enthusiastic as fuck. Go beto. Also, at 420%. On that note, gonna go toke up in solidarity

[Js1 85056]