Early Voting 2018 thread of doom

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3873]

1 minute ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

El Paso is enthusiastic as fuck. Go beto. Also, at 420%. On that note, gonna go toke up in solidarity

I've tried to wrestle in my brain for using El Paso as a proxy for GOTV efforts in general.  The big increase in virtually any other county seems to be impossible to tell how much is attributable to each candidate at this point.  But with El Paso you can be virtually certain. 

You have one county where there is the largest number of people that would be sitting at home but for Beto's presence in the race.  And that is the largest county of increase.  Does that correlate to the more divided counties?  In, say, Harris, fewer percentage of people would be default Beto voters, so you see a smaller overall increase but just as much Beto increase, so the numbers look like the above.  I.e., Beto is killing it in GOTV?  

 

There are holes there but I feel like there is some information you could extract from the huge El Paso jump.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13732]

You have to assume that El Paso is pretty excited about Beto as they most likely have not had too many politicians with statewide appeal much someone less receiving national attention.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34106]

26 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

I know Wally, pretty well. This is extremely disappointing. 

[Texas Jeff 1999]

If you don't want to wait in line, the Del Valle Admin ISD building has seen the fewest voters.  They are pulling in 200-300 people per day and they have six booths.

The Randalls at Brodie and Slaughter is the place to go if you enjoy lines.  So far they are seeing about 1900 voters per day using 20 booths.  The Travis County website will tell you how many people are in line at each location and how many booths are at each location (click on the stoplights in the map at the bottom).

The Randall's voting lines are the longest ... perhaps those folks are trying to vote and score some bottled water at the same time...

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3873]

2 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

If you don't want to wait in line, the Del Valle Admin ISD building has seen the fewest voters.  They are pulling in 200-300 people per day and they have six booths.

The Randalls at Brodie and Slaughter is the place to go if you enjoy lines.  So far they are seeing about 1900 voters per day using 20 booths.  The Travis County website will tell you how many people are in line at each location and how many booths are at each location (click on the stoplights in the map at the bottom).

The Randall's voting lines are the longest ... perhaps those folks are trying to vote and score some bottled water at the same time...

Anyone have any idea where they get the data for the stoplights?  There was no 'checking in' or anything they could time me on when I went to vote.  I think it has to be self reported somehow and the estimates are generally junk.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Just voted in Fort Worth. Parking lot was full. 2 separate lines to vote. Not much of a wait at all, but still lots of people.

 

add one more vote for Beto.

Edited October 25, 2018 by Voldemort86

[Dnaguy 12631]

15 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Just voted in Fort Worth. Parking lot was full. 2 separate lines to vote. Not much of a wait at all, but still lots of people.

 

add one more vote for Beto.

Was one line for all the illegals voting?

[Voldemort86 2259]

3 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

Was one line for all the illegals voting?

Very funny. No it was for convenience I guess. One line went to a place with 20 voting machines. Another went somewhere with 10. A lot of the signs outside were posted in Spanish tho.

[NowThis 931]

Straight D, nice 6 page ballot, 30 minute round trip including drive time, parking, walking, voting. 

[Biff Tannen 46168]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

 

That is heinous.  Fuck them.  Don't be such pieces of shit and you won't have to worry about college students not voting for you.

[tantric superman 4668]

 

14 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

That is heinous.

Hyenas?

[RexWilson 1502]

Voted at the county annex building in Round Rock around 10:30. Place was the busiest I could recall in an early election but I was still out in 10-15 minutes.

I wish the ballot would indicate the incumbent. I know most cases it is the R candidate but on some of the school board ones I couldn't remember.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34106]

11 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

 

Hyenas?

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/e3cd9f5d-e7b5-4eec-8e18-f33766290b67

Edited October 25, 2018 by Longhorn_Fan68

[High Plains Drifter 11190]

On 10/23/2018 at 12:33 AM, Voldemort86 said:

Straight ticket voting has already been killed as of the 2020 election. I’m not sure they can get away with killing early voting without suffering some kind of backlash. It would piss off a lot of repubs and independents too.

Next step: get rid of the R or D or I next to their names.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13732]

1 hour ago, High Plains Drifter said:

Next step: get rid of the R or D or I next to their names.

If they do that I’m changing my name to Incumbent Republican and running for the next senate race. 

Or Republican Straight-Ticket.  That’s gotta get me 40% right off the bat. 

Edited October 25, 2018 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Js1 87186]

Check your ballots, boys! 

 

[Guest]

I overheard the proctor telling the ( Beto) new voters how to use the voting machines.  He emphasized that Montgomery County machines had English and Spanish as available languages.  He said his partners in Harris County had 7.

I'm cool with that, but why would it be different?

As for hours and the San Marcos crap, our hours of availability are 8-5 all this week and then 12-5 on Sunday, followed by 7-7 all next week.

I was pleasantly surprised by the available hours.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Check your ballots, boys! 

 

I had two different friends in different parts of the state say the exact opposite, that they voted straight ticket GOP and Beto was marked.  I did not believe them either.

You also aren't supposed to take your cellphone out in the polling area, so where are these pics coming from.

Check your ballot, for sure...both sides.

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13732]

When you vote straight ticket, you can obviously change one or more of the selections.  I assume it still shows straight ticket on the final ballot page.   Most likely the voter accidentally changed their vote to Cruz.

Regardless check your ballot at the end, especially for the races you care who wins.

[Austinvines 318]

I had two different friends in different parts of the state say the exact opposite, that they voted straight ticket GOP and Beto was marked.  I did not believe them either.

You also aren't supposed to take your cellphone out in the polling area, so where are these pics coming from.

Check your ballot, for sure...both sides.

 

 

In both cases it was, most likely, an emphasis vote after selecting straight party. With scantron ballots, if you straight party vote Democrat and then fill in the blank for Beto, it would count as one vote for Beto. The voter just emphasized Beto.

 

On a machine, the program treats the straight ticket and the emphasis vote as something like a double negative and marks the vote for the opponent. You do get a warning pop up but it’s almost doublespeak like “the selection you’ve made will deselect your precious selection.” Litigation was tried to get it changed but it didn’t go anywhere.

 

So on machines in Texas, if you straight ticket vote R but then choose Beto, your vote goes Beto. If you straight ticket R and choose Cruz, your vote goes to Beto. If no one voted a straight ticket, this wouldn’t happen.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13732]

This is this last major election that Texas voters have to worry about hearing about problems with straight ticket.   Whether the problem is the machine or the person screwing up, voters will have to select each race.

[Texas Jeff 1999]

15 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Anyone have any idea where they get the data for the stoplights?  There was no 'checking in' or anything they could time me on when I went to vote.  I think it has to be self reported somehow and the estimates are generally junk.

I would bet that a poll worker just periodically takes a count and plugs in a number.  They really only know how many people per hour are checking in to get that little four digit code, and then how long it is until the four digit code is used in a booth.   I think to know the real count you would have to make everyone walk through a counter at the start to measure the arrival rate.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

This is this last major election that Texas voters have to worry about hearing about problems with straight ticket.   Whether the problem is the machine or the person screwing up, voters will have to select each race.

I agree with this.  

The voter has their opportunity to vote straight ticket in the primaries...

[Js1 87186]

49 minutes ago, slorch said:

You also aren't supposed to take your cellphone out in the polling area, so where are these pics coming from.

You're not supposed to do a lot of things.

If I'm voting and something isn't adding up, I'm taking a god damn picture for proof.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

The photographic evidence is the real crime here.

[DDD Dad 14652]

I agree with this.  
The voter has their opportunity to vote straight ticket in the primaries...

Wut?

[Guest]

55 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You're not supposed to do a lot of things.

If I'm voting and something isn't adding up, I'm taking a god damn picture for proof.

I get that. Some of the folks sharing these pics are not good adders. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The stupidity to fuck up a straight ticket ballot  is the real crime here.

We’re seeing from voters of bothparties. 

 

User error is the reason, not some vote fixing software. 

[RayDog 682]

8 minutes ago, slorch said:

We’re seeing from voters of bothparties. 

 

User error is the reason, not some vote fixing software. 

When I was an R&D manager at in instrumentation company we used to do what we called, dumb monkey testing, in other words mimicking a monkey at the keyboard randomly hitting keystrokes. It was always easy to find a sequence that programmers failed to test that caused errors.

While I don't trust Republicans as far as I can throw them, it would not surprise me if this is a problem due to bad software and failures to test it adequately.

 

[bernorange 8385]

Quote

...
It's popped up across Texas often enough for the Secretary of State to put up a statewide advisory on Monday to every Texas election advisor.

The Secretary of State calls it 'operator error.'

"We've heard from voters over a number of elections about this," said Ft. Bend County Election Administrator John Oldham.

Oldham says it's a problem he's seen for years.

He even told the Secretary of State about it years ago and it's still happening.

"It's not a glitch, it's a user-induced problem that comes from the type of system that we have," Oldham said. "I think both sides could be equally hurt."

It's unclear how widespread it is.

"As long as you don't hit the red button to cast, then you can get some assistance from the poll watchers," Hosea said.

Oldham tells us he recalls the problems for at least six years and says he's talked to the Secretary of State more than once about the problem. It has not been fixed aside from signs provided by the Secretary of State to warn voters to check their selections.

Oldham also said he was able to replicate the issue in his offices after multiple attempts.

"I'm really disappointed with the State of Texas," Hosea told us.

Sam Taylor, at the Texas Secretary of State's office, tells 13 Investigates the problem is "user error" and not something their office could fix. Taylor suggests a vendor could or should handle any upgrades, but the state has not asked vendors to do so.

Oldham and another election expert tell 13 Investigates that in some states, pop up screens warn straight ticket voters if they purposely or accidentally select a candidate of the other party. Texas has no such electronic warning.

Oldham in Fort Bend County told us it is most likely caused by voters simultaneously twisting the selection dial and pushing the enter button. It may not even be purposeful, but done by voters in a rush who don't realize they are still interacting with both.

https://abc13.com/politics/straight-party-voters-reporting-their-votes-were-changed/4556377/

Also, I see in that screen shot js1 posted that Glenn Hegar (R) was also selected. 

[Huckleberry 34661]

The person tweeting explained that Hegar was intentional.

[Texas Jeff 1999]

Travis County total turnout through the end of Thursday was 19%, versus 21% in 2016, 7% in 2014 and 12% in 2012 at the same point in the election.

That's about 148,000 voters at this point in 2018, versus 153,000 in 2016, 47,000 in 2014 and 90,000 in 2012.

[DDD Dad 14652]

[Continental Op 3934]

Took me about 40 minutes at Fretz Park Library in Dallas. If I told a version of myself 20 years ago what the ballot I just cast looked like I wouldn't believe me.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11860]

Over 30 minutes at the Randall’s at Brodie and Slaughter. Not too bad.  Go Beto!

[atomheartbevo 90650]

2 hours ago, Continental Op said:

Took me about 40 minutes at Fretz Park Library in Dallas. If I told a version of myself 20 years ago what the ballot I just cast looked like I wouldn't believe me.

This a million times.  

Hell, I can’t believe that my mom and aunt are voting for some Dems.  

[sushihorn 3249]

On 10/25/2018 at 3:15 PM, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

I've tried to wrestle in my brain for using El Paso as a proxy for GOTV efforts in general.  The big increase in virtually any other county seems to be impossible to tell how much is attributable to each candidate at this point.  But with El Paso you can be virtually certain. 

You have one county where there is the largest number of people that would be sitting at home but for Beto's presence in the race.  And that is the largest county of increase.  Does that correlate to the more divided counties?  In, say, Harris, fewer percentage of people would be default Beto voters, so you see a smaller overall increase but just as much Beto increase, so the numbers look like the above.  I.e., Beto is killing it in GOTV?  

 

There are holes there but I feel like there is some information you could extract from the huge El Paso jump.

You have 2 major currents in El Paso.  One is the local boy effect and the other is GOTV.  Not sure how you would separate one from the other.  I guess you could use other heavily D counties with a large GOTV presence to control for hometown kid done good.

[gmr548 16701]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

This a million times.  

Hell, I can’t believe that my mom and aunt are voting for some Dems.  

My mother will be studied by historians as the lone Trump-Beto voter. The weird thing is that she still won't get off the Trump wagon. She just wants Cruz gone. She isn't informed enough to know about the primary infighting in any substantive way, so it isn't a Trump loyalty thing. I have no idea what is driving it but I will take it.

[berlinerbaer 692]

16 hours ago, slorch said:

I overheard the proctor telling the ( Beto) new voters how to use the voting machines.  He emphasized that Montgomery County machines had English and Spanish as available languages.  He said his partners in Harris County had 7.

I'm cool with that, but why would it be different?

As for hours and the San Marcos crap, our hours of availability are 8-5 all this week and then 12-5 on Sunday, followed by 7-7 all next week.

I was pleasantly surprised by the available hours.

I have to disagree about the 8-5 hours. They're crap if you are a working person, especially one with kids who need to be dropped off and picked up from school or daycare. That's asking many to cut work short by an hour or more.

Naturally, this impacts certain demographics (younger voters) more than others, and thins may account for some of the voting patters we've seen so far.

[Huckleberry 34661]

My mother will be studied by historians as the lone Trump-Beto voter. The weird thing is that she still won't get off the Trump wagon. She just wants Cruz gone. She isn't informed enough to know about the primary infighting in any substantive way, so it isn't a Trump loyalty thing. I have no idea what is driving it but I will take it.

Your mom wants to have sex with Beto. Just sayin'.

[MidTexHorn 822]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

4 hours ago, gmr548 said:

My mother will be studied by historians as the lone Trump-Beto voter. The weird thing is that she still won't get off the Trump wagon. She just wants Cruz gone. She isn't informed enough to know about the primary infighting in any substantive way, so it isn't a Trump loyalty thing. I have no idea what is driving it but I will take it.

Your mom wants to have sex with Beto. Just sayin'.

And there’s nothing wrong with that

[Longhorn_Fan68 34106]

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/state-issues-advisory-on-potential-problem-with-voting-machines/1550120751

[sushihorn 3249]

I did an analysis of the top 15 counties and their daily turnout relative to 2016.  On the Monday, the mean of the 15 turnout numbers was 97.9% of the comp day (Mon 10/24/16) turnout in a presidential year.  That was truly extraordinary for a mid-term.  Since then the relative turnout has fallen steadily.  94.02% on Tue, 82.31% on Wed and 82.00% Thur.  Those are still impressive numbers.

Counties with the highest cumulative turnout relative to 2016 as of Thursday were Nueces (102.31%), Denton (94.98), El Paso (94.73), Dallas (93.37), Fort Bend (92.15) and Williamson (91.50).  Galveston, Cameron and Collin were all in the 90% range and above the mean.

Worst relative turnout was Hidalgo at 77.88% of 2016.  Harris at 80.61 and Bexar as 83.71 are also not showing well.  Tarrant, Travis and Denton are all right around 88% of 2016.  A good showing by Texas voters so far.  Trend lines are heading lower after that big surge the first 2 days.

[Guest]

8 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

I have to disagree about the 8-5 hours. They're crap if you are a working person, especially one with kids who need to be dropped off and picked up from school or daycare. That's asking many to cut work short by an hour or more.

Naturally, this impacts certain demographics (younger voters) more than others, and thins may account for some of the voting patters we've seen so far.

Do you work 7 days per week? For 14 days in a row... with the exact same shift?  With no lunch break?

They also extend hours on the 2nd week.

It seems to me, some of the detractors are just looking for a reason to poo-poo the system.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13732]

6 minutes ago, slorch said:

Do you work 7 days per week? For 14 days in a row... with the exact same shift?  With no lunch break?

They also extend hours on the 2nd week.

It seems to me, some of the detractors are just looking for a reason to poo-poo the system.

I bet that if they extend one of the early voting days from 8am - 10pm they would have a large influx of voters show up after 8pm. 

[Guest]

Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I bet that if they extend one of the early voting days from 8am - 10pm they would have a large influx of voters show up after 8pm. 

That’s reasonable too.

Then people would say it.’s the wrong night...

 

[atomheartbevo 90650]

Voted at Howson library in Tarrytown at 7:30 this morning.  No wait whatsoever.  

Didn’t do straight ticket so didn’t get to experience any quirks of our shitty machines. 

[SubliminalHorn 7009]

It’s always telling that there’s a certain political party that is always rationalizing making voting harder. Wonder why....

[atomheartbevo 90650]

1 minute ago, SubliminalHorn said:

It’s always telling that there’s a certain political party that is always rationalizing making voting harder. Wonder why....

Can’t have people who work shitty jobs and/or multiple jobs voting. After all, what skin do they have in the game?

it is ridiculous that our voting system is so fucking backward compared to so many counties.  

[berlinerbaer 692]

1 hour ago, slorch said:

Do you work 7 days per week? For 14 days in a row... with the exact same shift?  With no lunch break?

They also extend hours on the 2nd week.

It seems to me, some of the detractors are just looking for a reason to poo-poo the system.

I believe those hours are being extended this week, which is good. The theme of the thread had evolved into reading the tea leaves about voting patterns so far. I wanted to throw this caveat out there as it is probably affecting those numbers.

Expect more young voters casting ballots this weekend and next week.