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Big 12 Championship Game Scenarios

903Cougar

By 903Cougar
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Vic Mackey

Vic Mackey 46919

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Knoxtnhorn said:

I guess but I can only think of ONE time a scenario played out - that was out of our hands - that benefited us. I think Okie St beat OU once in the late 90's which backed us in to the Big 12 CCG.

It was 2001. Nebraska also got drilled by Colorado as well. And we got a favorable result in the Tenn/Fla game. That allowed us to go play Colorado for the Big 12 title but we all know how that went. 

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14446

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Bob Lives! said:

 


Hey asshole, I’ll gladly admit to being confused by the tiebreaker rules, but if WV loses to oSu and then beats OU we all have 2 conference losses. It’s a 3-way tie with each time having beaten one and lost to the other.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

In which case OU would be #3.

WVU would be 2-0

Texas would be 1-1

OU would be 0-2

WVU advances, and then it falls to Texas vs. OU, which Texas won, so they would advance. This isn't fucking rocket science.

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gmr548

gmr548 16463

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

In which case OU would be #3.

WVU would be 2-0

Texas would be 1-1

OU would be 0-2

WVU advances, and then it falls to Texas vs. OU, which Texas won, so they would advance. This isn't fucking rocket science.

 

Yup. A WVU loss to OSU next week coupled with a Texas win would essentially clinch a CCG berth for Texas, pending a win against Kansas. WVU-OU would basically be a semifinal in that case.

Of course, I wouldn't count on that at all.

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14446

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

 

Yup. A WVU loss to OSU next week coupled with a Texas win would essentially clinch a CCG berth for Texas, pending a win against Kansas. WVU-OU would basically be a semifinal in that case.

Of course, I wouldn't count on that at all.

No the most likely scenario is WVU beats OSU, Texas beats ISU/KU, and OU beats WVU.

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Treefidy

Treefidy 1463

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Posted
1 hour ago, Lost in the World said:

The simplest way to look at this: If we win out, the only thing that would keep us from playing in the conference championship is if OU wins out.

The good guys need to win out and blowU has to lose. That's it. 

Except if OSU beats WVU.  

Its laid out above, if we win out there are multiple scenarios where we are in. WV losing to OSU is the most promising because then we are in no matter what.  OU losing to either KU or WVU. Or WVU losing to both OSU and OU. 

Basically if we win out, there's only one scenario we get bumped out and that's both OU and WV both winning this week and OU beating WVU.  This means over the next 2 weeks the favorite wins every game (5 games) with no upsets, and at this time of year I would bet against that happening.  Though I think the most likely upset is ISU over us. 

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totallynotabuttpirate

totallynotabuttpirate 5341

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Treefidy said:

Except if OSU beats WVU.  

Its laid out above, if we win out there are multiple scenarios where we are in. WV losing to OSU is the most promising because then we are in no matter what.  OU losing to either KU or WVU. Or WVU losing to both OSU and OU. 

Basically if we win out, there's only one scenario we get bumped out and that's both OU and WV both winning this week and OU beating WVU.  This means over the next 2 weeks the favorite wins every game (5 games) with no upsets, and at this time of year I would bet against that happening.  Though I think the most likely upset is ISU over us. 

So OSU really needs to make up for yesterday. 

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Lost in the World

Lost in the World 26

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Treefidy said:

Except if OSU beats WVU.  

Its laid out above, if we win out there are multiple scenarios where we are in. WV losing to OSU is the most promising because then we are in no matter what.  OU losing to either KU or WVU. Or WVU losing to both OSU and OU. 

Basically if we win out, there's only one scenario we get bumped out and that's both OU and WV both winning this week and OU beating WVU.  This means over the next 2 weeks the favorite wins every game (5 games) with no upsets, and at this time of year I would bet against that happening.  Though I think the most likely upset is ISU over us. 

I think you misread what I said (or maybe I said it bad). I'm saying that we need to win out, and the only we stay out of the CCG is if OU beats WVU, although there is a situation where OU can best WVU and we can still get in (the situation you mentioned). I'm just talking in guarantees to make it simpler for people that don't understand the tiebreakers. Hook 'em. 

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Fart

Fart 111

Posted
Posted

Lose to ISU and this will be moot.   I didn’t think Texas Tech really had much of a chance to beat Texas without Bowman but they nearly sent the game to overtime.   Had Texas beaten Tech soundly, then I’d feel a lot more confident about Texas beating ISU, now It’s a good bet Texas will more than have its hands full with a team that might be the most well-coached in the Big 12.

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sdm

sdm 844

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Let's keep in mind that ISU is really fucking good and we are banged up going into it. Not much worth talking about until we win. 

Very concerned about ISU. Campbell is a helluva coach and we've taken a lot of casualties the last several weeks. This game will definitely show how mentally strong this team is.

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Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 10734

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, ztejas said:

I will say though - IF we make the CCG I'd rather it be against WVU. I'd rather watch us play OU again but it's just so damn hard to beat someone twice in one season. 

smurf is getting dark horse heisman talk.  the opportunity to crush the smurf and kill his heisman might be enough to get the D off their ass.

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TexEx15

TexEx15 17443

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, ztejas said:

I will say though - IF we make the CCG I'd rather it be against WVU. I'd rather watch us play OU again but it's just so damn hard to beat someone twice in one season. 

Absolutely,  plus we already beat OU so I would love to pound WV after that heart breaker.

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HookEm

HookEm 2441

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Posted

Using Massey Rating's game odds calculator for all remaining games, along with the matrix posted above you get the following cumulative odds of making the Big 12 title game:

WV - 69.8%

OU - 65.7%

UT - 37.8%

ISU - 26.7%

Note that the above doesn't take into account UT vs Kansas (89% UT) or OU vs. Kansas (99% OU)

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Vic Mackey said:

It was 2001. Nebraska also got drilled by Colorado as well. And we got a favorable result in the Tenn/Fla game. That allowed us to go play Colorado for the Big 12 title but we all know how that went. 

Yep.  Only time we ever backed into the CCG.  

Another piece of trivia that seems to only happen to Texas.  Only 2 CCG MVPs have been on the losing team.  They both played for Nebraska against us. 

Suh in 2009 and Evans in 1996.  Suh was a beast, our offense was garbage, and our defense was a group effort, so Suh deserved it.

Evans went for 130 yards and 3 TDs.  Priest Holmes went for 120 and 3 TDs, including the nail in the coffin.  Priest did that with only 9 touches to Evan's 32.  Evans did also add 42 in the air, but I can't think of another game ever where the losing player wins the MVP given those stats.

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13092

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, ztejas said:

I will say though - IF we make the CCG I'd rather it be against WVU. I'd rather watch us play OU again but it's just so damn hard to beat someone twice in one season. 

I would prefer WVU just because then OU would not be the Big 12 champion under any circumstances. That would be a win for everybody.

Edited by Valmy77
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WBT

WBT 20397

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, AeroHorn said:

Since there are two slots for the title game (#1 and #2), your denominator should be 16, not 32. The percentages should add up to 200 to account for two slots.

Correct but I'd start with questioning the assumption that every game is 50/50

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JustBecause

JustBecause 112

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

Yep.  Only time we ever backed into the CCG.  

Another piece of trivia that seems to only happen to Texas.  Only 2 CCG MVPs have been on the losing team.  They both played for Nebraska against us. 

Suh in 2009 and Evans in 1996.  Suh was a beast, our offense was garbage, and our defense was a group effort, so Suh deserved it.

Evans went for 130 yards and 3 TDs.  Priest Holmes went for 120 and 3 TDs, including the nail in the coffin.  Priest did that with only 9 touches to Evan's 32.  Evans did also add 42 in the air, but I can't think of another game ever where the losing player wins the MVP given those stats.

Make up call?

Edited by JustBecause
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gmr548

gmr548 16463

Posted
Posted
Is OU really going to be the favorite @Morgantown?  ESPN puts OU's odds of winning at 51.8% but I'm much more interested in hearing what Vegas thinks. 

 

What WVU looks like @OSU will have some influence but I do imagine OU will be the slight favorite. They don't lose road conference games and a top ten home dog will get a lot of bets.

 

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mop

mop 18

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Posted

I will be happy if we win out, regardless of whether or not we make it to the Big 12 championship, but I DO think we could make it back.  WVU beating OU is very possible.  Okie Lite beating WVU is also very possible. I wouldn't say either are probable, but both are possible.  

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jdhorn92

jdhorn92 1535

Posted
Posted
On 11/11/2018 at 4:14 PM, Vic Mackey said:

It was 2001. Nebraska also got drilled by Colorado as well. And we got a favorable result in the Tenn/Fla game. That allowed us to go play Colorado for the Big 12 title but we all know how that went. 

Yeah that was a crazy year with 9/11 and all.  Big12 title game was a week before the Sec title game.  OU lost late to OSU putting us in a rematch with CU.  We punked CU 41-7 earlier in the year and as you said, CU had beaten #1 or #2  Neb earlier in the year.

We were BCS bound with UF losing earlier in the day.  That game was rescheduled b/c of 9/11 (it was Spurrier's last game).

All we had to do was win.  Phil Geigar roughing the punter with a couple minutes left put a wet blanket on Major's epic comeback.  One of Simms INTs got Benson hurt compounding a terrible first half.  I watched that game on Bourbon St csb.

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