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Texas vs. WVU @ 2:30 (Fox)

MirrOlure

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Colt45

Colt45 5

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Posted (edited)

I’ve watched a few WVU games this year. They’re the same team as last year except for a better defense and a slightly weaker running game. The defense comes out extremely strong and then like in the tech game lets their opponent come back. Keys to winning this game is our defense getting some turnovers early like they usually have been doing at home, and offense/special teams not making any stupid mistakes. 

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PencilPusher

PencilPusher 454

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Posted
22 hours ago, Texas25 said:

We already beat WVU on steroids and it's name is OU. Spare the sob story. Our defense had a bad quarter because our two best corners decided to be dumb asses off the field. I don't get why you're jumping off a bridge all of a sudden. This WVU team was pants-ed by Iowa State, we'll be fine.

Easy there big fella.........no sob story here. Yes the corners were dumbasses but the coaching staff (with an extra week to prepare) did not do enough to effectively counter both that issue and other obvious weaknesses. Texas beat OU simply because the offense executed at a level they hadn't done before that game (or since). There were 5 or 6 wasted possessions against OSU that if Texas had been more effective on just 2 or 3 of those, its a win. The point is simply this....unless Texas can generate multiple turnovers (which we have only done in 2 games this year) and not give up field position off of special teams issues, WVa is going to put up points. Our defense still has talent issues and some schematic gaps that WVa can exploit (in ways the rest of the schedule can't). The key will be our offense taking advantage of a significant number of its possessions and getting points. We will need 35+ to have a shot at winning. 

And for the record, on the other thread I did have us winning out after this game so no one is jumping off a bridge. 

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mininghorn88

mininghorn88 2294

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7 minutes ago, PencilPusher said:

Easy there big fella.........no sob story here. Yes the corners were dumbasses but the coaching staff (with an extra week to prepare) did not do enough to effectively counter both that issue and other obvious weaknesses. Texas beat OU simply because the offense executed at a level they hadn't done before that game (or since). There were 5 or 6 wasted possessions against OSU that if Texas had been more effective on just 2 or 3 of those, its a win. The point is simply this....unless Texas can generate multiple turnovers (which we have only done in 2 games this year) and not give up field position off of special teams issues, WVa is going to put up points. Our defense still has talent issues and some schematic gaps that WVa can exploit (in ways the rest of the schedule can't). The key will be our offense taking advantage of a significant number of its possessions and getting points. We will need 35+ to have a shot at winning. 

And for the record, on the other thread I did have us winning out after this game so no one is jumping off a bridge. 

When was it known that the 2 starting corners were not going to play the 1Q?  Was there an extra week to prepare or was this a last minute change?

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Machinator

Machinator 32099

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6 minutes ago, mininghorn88 said:

When was it known that the 2 starting corners were not going to play the 1Q?  Was there an extra week to prepare or was this a last minute change?

The coaches decided on the punishment Friday evening, but rules of the team violations broke earlier that week.

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ztejas

ztejas 43516

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Posted

 

On 10/30/2018 at 9:05 AM, PencilPusher said:

Unfortunately, this week actually looks worse now since Texas clearly did not improve coming out of the bye week.

Let's wait to pass judgement on this until we play at home. OSU had a bye week, too, remember?

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Whitman

Whitman 694

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, PencilPusher said:

 

And for the record, on the other thread I did have us winning out after this game so no one is jumping off a bridge. 

Actually we just did about two weeks ago.  Yearly event on the New River Gorge Bridge.

https://officialbridgeday.com/base-jumping/

 

Edited by Whitman
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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Posted (edited)
On 10/30/2018 at 10:10 AM, Texas25 said:

This WVU team was pants-ed by Iowa State, we'll be fine.

I trust you're not saying that like it might have pertained in the past. Iowa State is a good fucking team with a great coach. Getting beat by them is no pathetic loss now.  Texas will get pants-ed them if they take them lightly.

Edited by phdhorn
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chase25

chase25 2048

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7 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

I trust you're not saying that like it might have pertained in the past. Iowa State is a good fucking team with a great coach. Getting beat by them is no pathetic loss now.  Texas will get pants-ed them if they take them lightly.

I'm saying they got bulldozed, Iowa State is a solid team with Brock Purdy at QB but Iowa State out gained WVU by 346 yards... 346 yards.. Getting out gained by 346 yards is pathetic. Yet because we had a really bad quarter against OKST because Boyd and Davis decided to be idiots off the field, all of sudden that means we are going to get lit up. WVU will be facing the Texas team that held Oklahoma to 14 points with our entire starting defense on the field, not the one that got torched for 24 points with Boyce and Cook on the field. WVU will probably score points, they almost always do. I would be shocked if they scored 35+ on us and if they don't then I believe we win.

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Vertigo

Vertigo 20293

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9 minutes ago, Texas25 said:

I'm saying they got bulldozed, Iowa State is a solid team with Brock Purdy at QB but Iowa State out gained WVU by 346 yards... 346 yards.. Getting out gained by 346 yards is pathetic. Yet because we had a really bad quarter against OKST because Boyd and Davis decided to be idiots off the field, all of sudden that means we are going to get lit up. WVU will be facing the Texas team that held Oklahoma to 14 points with our entire starting defense on the field, not the one that got torched for 24 points with Boyce and Cook on the field. WVU will probably score points, they almost always do. I would be shocked if they scored 35+ on us and if they don't then I believe we win.

I am less worried about WVU this year than I am of ISU and our road game at Tech. We usually overmatch WVU physically and can diffuse their offense for the most part. We pushed them around last year, and our Oline is far better this year. 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Texas25 said:

I'm saying they got bulldozed, Iowa State is a solid team with Brock Purdy at QB but Iowa State out gained WVU by 346 yards... 346 yards.. Getting out gained by 346 yards is pathetic. Yet because we had a really bad quarter against OKST because Boyd and Davis decided to be idiots off the field, all of sudden that means we are going to get lit up. WVU will be facing the Texas team that held Oklahoma to 14 points with our entire starting defense on the field, not the one that got torched for 24 points with Boyce and Cook on the field. WVU will probably score points, they almost always do. I would be shocked if they scored 35+ on us and if they don't then I believe we win.

Well really Iowa state and West Virginia has nothing to do with this game. . It's indicative of how good West Virginia is as much as Maryland was indicative of how good Texas is.

West Virginia is probably the best all-around team will play this year, and I'm even looking at Oklahoma. That could mean that they'll be the hardest team to beat, and possibly the biggest loss we would see this year.

But I think Texas does have a slight advantage in winning this game, mostly having home field, but it's not like we're playong some shit team. West Virginia's defense is better in Oklahoma's or Oklahoma State.

I don't think we're going to get lit up in this game either, Although our history of against West Virginia is 3-4 the last 7 years, we usually play them pretty well: however one (WVa crapping out against Iowa State) does not necessarily pretend to the other (West Virginia not being our toughest game possibly).

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Knoxtnhorn

Knoxtnhorn 6062

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Posted

C'mon y'all.  West Virginia may beat us and all, but good Lord, they're not that great.  They've beaten

Tennessee (virtual home game)

Youngstown St (home)

K State (home)

Tech

Kansas (home)

Baylor (home)

They lost to Iowa St on the road.

Of course, I posted something similar before Okie St so I may not know much.

 

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OU Sucks

OU Sucks 8890

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, Knoxtnhorn said:

C'mon y'all.  West Virginia may beat us and all, but good Lord, they're not that great.  They've beaten

Tennessee (virtual home game)

Youngstown St (home)

K State (home)

Tech

Kansas (home)

Baylor (home)

They lost to Iowa St on the road.

Of course, I posted something similar before Okie St so I may not know much.

 

I like your enthusiasm, but we made a 12th year senior look like Drew Brees.

maxresdefault.jpg

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chase25

chase25 2048

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1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

Well really Iowa state and West Virginia has nothing to do with this game. . It's indicative of how good West Virginia is as much as Maryland was indicative of how good Texas is.

West Virginia is probably the best all-around team will play this year, and I'm even looking at Oklahoma. That could mean that they'll be the hardest team to beat, and possibly the biggest loss we would see this year.

But I think Texas does have a slight advantage in winning this game, mostly having home field, but it's not like we're playong some shit team. West Virginia's defense is better in Oklahoma's or Oklahoma State.

I don't think we're going to get lit up in this game either, Although our history of against West Virginia is 3-4 the last 7 years, we usually play them pretty well: however one (WVa crapping out against Iowa State) does not necessarily pretend to the other (West Virginia not being our toughest game possibly).

West Virginia is not the best all around team we will play this year, but that is neither here nor there. West Virginia losing to Iowa State has as much to do with this game as us losing to Oklahoma State and that was my point. Before this past Saturday we were talking outside chance of CFP and because of essentially one quarter apparently now Grier is going to torch us. West Virginia is the furthest thing from unbeatable, so are we, I like our chances at home compared to theirs.

Oklahoma will beat West Virginia by 2+ TDs this year, my opinion of course. The reason we always hang with Oklahoma is because we are the only team in the conference that can hang with them across the board, athlete for athlete.

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Blanton

Blanton 170

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3 hours ago, Cairn Horn88 said:

Forget about Iowa State and Tech....focus on one thing and that is West Virginia...haven't we learned anything here?

Come on baby, let the good times roll
Come on baby, let me thrill your soul
Come on baby, let the good times roll
Roll all night long

Thats what I’m taking about! Let’s get these blue hair motherfuckers on their feet!

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Machinator

Machinator 32099

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Scipio Tex: West Virginia Preview

Texas matches up pretty well with West Virginia in Austin and since there's no bye week, there's that much less time for a solid Mountaineer staff to hone in on our tendencies/personnel the way Mike Gundy did in Stillwater.

Offensively, a Let's Run These Plays No Matter How The D Lines Up approach may play into our hands if the staff notes that West Virginia's D is very call/scheme oriented and doesn't handle QB involved running games very well. Which opens up play action downfield to our big WRs. It also suggests that Texas would benefit from tempo - not just getting up on the ball quickly and then looking to the sideline, but actually snapping it and going fast. 

A regular game week also provides the added benefit of Longhorn players not getting themselves suspended and indulging in other various myriad distractions. If Kris Boyd getting mossed on the field and then tweaked on social media after a suspension lends him three hours of focus on Saturday, then I'm all for former Longhorn players prodding #2 on the regular.

Is 6-1 West Virginia really good? That's the question I ask after watching Iowa State shake them down near the Ames bike racks like a middle school bully, but then you see them cut through Baylor and Kansas State - two teams we struggled with mightily - like Nahlin's curling iron through EJ Holland's latte foam when they're having a 2020 Recruiting Class Dream Board Sleepover Party, it gives you pause.

It boils down to match-ups. Football transitive properties don't really apply. Even when West Virginia beat KSU and Baylor by a combined 73. While we beat them by a combined 11.

Unlike us, West Virginia's offensive personnel and style of play have no internal governor. Holgo sure as hell isn't going to hold them back. Against certain types of personnel or defensive approaches, they can name their score. But they don't have a lot of options if the defense disallows big scoring plays and can make West Virginia play left-handed. They respond to external governors - opponent personnel, scheme and defensive speed. Our offense has it's own internal governors that have to do with 4D chess game theory and personnel limitations.

I typically break down the opponent's units, but for this one I prefer to look at favorable and unfavorable match-ups.

Favorable for Texas 

1. David Sills is a good wide receiver (37-529-9tds), but his game is about size, flypaper hands and body control bullying inferior corners. Boyd is actually a great match-up against him because he has the size and strength to defend space and not get left on Sills' hip downfield. HE MUST DO HIS WORK EARLY. Kris has the worst technique of any multi-year starting Texas corner I've ever seen, but when he presses and re-routes early, he renders guys like Sills impotent as they're not able to recover their stride. When Boyd stands in no man's land pondering daffodils or whether we're all just a computer simulation, he gets used. If Boyd misses timing on a red zone jump ball by, oh, I don't know, a second and a half, then I guess Sills will score. Failing that, an engaged Boyd is fully capable of holding him down to a 4-50 type of stat line.

2. West Virginia's defense has exceeded preseason expectations. They surrender only 5.2 yards per play. Frankly, they've been more sound than we have been and their offense is good at staking them to leads which allows their D to play to their strengths. They're holding opponents to less than 20 points per game and only Iowa State has really bullied them in the run game for an entire game. But that's the most useful game to look at. WVU is small at LB and plays what amount to a base dime defense - even when the opponent brings bigger personnel to bear. ISU confounded them with Brock Purdy as a run option (and froze them with play action) and then hammered them relentlessly with David Montgomery when they started playing more base. WVU can't hold up in a base defense.

3. ISU's OL doesn't typically get a lot of movement, but they were pushing around WVU late like they were the '95 Cowboys. That's good for our OL, which is good at covering up bodies, but doesn't always move them. Involve Sam in the running game early and often (this needs to be a double digit carry game) and all sorts of good stuff will open for us. That allows our OL to get in space, block down, and engage our athleticism at tackle. We also get a loss less predictable. If we do it at tempo with an overload and a backside running threat while actually sprinting to the LOS and immediately snapping the ball before WVU can dial in their adjustments, I might even cry with joy.

3. Will Grier likes to throw deep strikes, stop routes and wide receiver screens dictated by the opponent's alignment. I don't think he makes progressions after he burns his pre-snap reads so much as scan the field for friendly open jerseys. Muddy his looks, get some pressure and don't allow everything to be a pre-snap read. He can throw interceptions in bunches when confused and will take sacks trying to create something downfield that just isn't there. If we help him with mental mistakes or nine mile distant delay blitzes where three guys trip over each other attacking the same gap, we deserve the ensuing 70 yard touchdown on a post route.

4. WVU's three-headed RB running game has been effective, but they don't involve Grier much as a runner and unless Holgo inserts a lot of jet sweep (which he may) with Jennings and Simms, I don't see them gashing us in those critical game-defining 3rd and 4th down game situations that OSU did. That's big. The Mountaineers are welcome to travel between the 20s all they like so long as Texas stiffens when the field compresses.

5. If Orlando and I are on the same page, Texas can play Caden Sterns as a consistent deep safety whose only job is to range, cut off vertical routes and jump some stuff. Get him out of run responsibilities and let his instincts on the back end take over.

6. West Virginia's D has forced 13 turnovers in 7 games. Their opponents have forced 11 on them. Sam Ehlinger has turned it over 3 times in 8 games despite a heavy load. I like #11's ability to take care of the football.

7. There's nothing particularly special about WVU special teams.

Unfavorable for Texas 

1. In my opinion, Gary Jennings is WVU's receiver to solve on 3rd down. He's a 6-1, 210 pound slot with OK speed, but he's extremely productive and understands how to attack single coverage. He'll be matched on PJ Locke. Their #3 WR Marcus Simms is less heralded than Jennings and Sills but he's a deep shot strider and screen guy. He has 29 catches for 511 yards and a 17.6 average. They love to get attention on Sills and Jennings on the same side of the field, have Grier play the safety off with his eyes and then throw to Simms on the backside on a 30-40 yard gain timing fade route. It's their field position flipper and Davante Davis and Brandon Jones have to be aware of it.

2. Holgo is a good tactician. He knows where we are weak and the Mountaineer game plan will be built in part around attacking #45 and #11 on key 3rd downs or in the red zone and then hunting for deep field shots on #2 and #19 at deep safety when they see an alignment they like. He also has seen how we respond to rub and wheel routes when our DBs lose their minds and run into each other. I see a heavy dose coming. 

3. The thought process that ISU shut down WVU at home running a D similar to ours makes sense on the surface, until you watch ISU's LBs play football and then you watch ours. The Cyclone defense played like a unit with every man dialed on his assignment. WVU went 1 of 10 on 3rd down and Grier was sacked 7 times. My fear is that the Texas coaches take away from that game is that ISU won because of controlling TOP with their offense. The reality is that they controlled TOP with the Cyclone defense by repeatedly getting WVU off of the field on 3rd downs. No one sustains drives with a 10% conversion rate. What the ISU offense does with the ball after that is up to them.

4. The obvious match-ups look good. The stuff we should do looks pretty apparent. But outside of OU, the staff hasn't always shown a willingness to bend our game plans to exploit specific match-ups. Perhaps this is "a Big Game" and thus it qualifies for that kind of consideration. We get to find out Saturday.

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Bobby_Batronic

Bobby_Batronic 1994

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Katfid54 said:

You mean this pic?

HOLGORSEN1.jpg

I don't see the resemblance.

Just looks at the pic of Cornelius (I think of Fight Club every time I say that name) and a current pic of Holgo.  Don’t look at an actual college picture of the confused coiffed one. 

Maybe closely related would be a better assessment. 

Edited by Bobby_Batronic
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VaLonghorn99

VaLonghorn99 341

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21 minutes ago, El Diablo said:

Hasn't this series pretty much favored the visitor?

Not a large enough sample 😊 However I still think that our performance @ MD, @ KSU and @ OSU this year are stronger predictors than what happened in prior years (prior years matter to an extent also psychologically)

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Bill Lumbergh

Bill Lumbergh 7171

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We need to score >35 to win.

I'm not sure what all is wrong in our secondary, but teams with less lethal passing attacks have receivers running free with regularity, so I have no expectation we're shutting down Holgerson and crew.  I think they'll score at least 35, so we need to get above that.

If we come out firing on offense, we can score on their d, and I think we win.  If we come out and waste a few drives getting started on offense, I think it gets away from us quickly like osu and I don't think the comeback will even come as close.

The team should be fired up on both sides.  This game likely decides if the big 12 title is still in play.  This one means something, so let's play like it. 

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Xcalibur

Xcalibur 546

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This game should mean more to us than it should mean to WVU.  Regardless if WVU wins on Saturday, they will still control their own destiny towards the Big12 CCG.  We, on the other hand, must win on Saturday to remain in control of our own destiny towards the Big12 CCG.

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MountaineerLegion

MountaineerLegion 1

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4 hours ago, VaLonghorn99 said:

Not a large enough sample 😊 However I still think that our performance @ MD, @ KSU and @ OSU this year are stronger predictors than what happened in prior years (prior years matter to an extent also psychologically)

I'm not sure how your prediction algorithm stacks up against ESPN's Matchup Predictor but IIRC ESPN's does a better job than most.  Of course, if they're right and it's less than a <1%, difference neither fan base should be guaranteeing a win.  Just might be one heckuva game.

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