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Texas vs. WVU @ 2:30 (Fox)


MirrOlure

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Don't wanna be a pussy god but damn this game makes me nervous. Win and great we are right back on track. Lose and we start creeping back towards last ten years of bullshit with a Tech road game and a hot ISU at home lurking. This is Herman's most important game so far. It can set the tone for his tenure here. Middle of year two now, you need to put up or shut up and be resilient after a bad loss. Seniors seem to have collectively mailed it in since beating OU and getting bowl eligible. Hopefully this week Herman got them motivated that there are bigger fish to fry than just a bowl game. With that said, lets go kick some hillbilly mountain aggy ass. 

You’re being a pussy.
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1 hour ago, UTEX_ME said:

Don't wanna be a pussy god but damn this game makes me nervous. Win and great we are right back on track. Lose and we start creeping back towards last ten years of bullshit with a Tech road game and a hot ISU at home lurking. This is Herman's most important game so far. It can set the tone for his tenure here. Middle of year two now, you need to put up or shut up and be resilient after a bad loss. Seniors seem to have collectively mailed it in since beating OU and getting bowl eligible. Hopefully this week Herman got them motivated that there are bigger fish to fry than just a bowl game. With that said, lets go kick some hillbilly mountain aggy ass. 

imgur

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Well, if nothing else, this game will set the tone for the rest of the season. We'll find out what this team is made of. Are they one hit wonders (OU) or are they the kind of team that can take it to the next level  - the rest of the season and into next year.

 

Edited by Irish Wrist Watch
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On 10/30/2018 at 9:05 AM, PencilPusher said:

Hate to say I saw last week coming...but I saw last week coming. Texas can not generate nor prevent big plays and OSU jumped all over that in the first half as I would have expected a coach like Gundy to do. When OSU decided they weren't going to shoot themselves in the foot this game (no turnovers, only 4 penalties), that was all that was needed. 3rd down defense of course was a huge problem again this week. Orlando knows it but his charges aren't executing.

Unfortunately, this week actually looks worse now since Texas clearly did not improve coming out of the bye week. WVa's offense is significantly better than OSU's as not only are they explosive (Top 15 in the country), but also very efficient (5th). This is OU lite in a lot of respects. WVa also has had penalty and turnover issues (their margin looks better because Baylor was so giving last week), but they will come to execute as they are coming off of consecutive bye weeks (yes that was a shot at Baylor). The only way Texas' defense holds this team under 40 this week is force some turnovers and hope WVa executes like they did against ISU. ISU's defense has certainly been executing better this year than Texas' has for the most part, but WVa helped that along by not looking crisp. Texas also has to generate sacks-WVa has actually given up more than you would expect given their offensive prowess, but Grier isn't as mobile as other quarterbacks in the league which probably attributes to it. 

WVa's defense is also "sneaky good".  What they have done well this year is get teams in 3rd and long. They do a good job stuffing the run on early downs and have been one of the best in the country on getting teams in 3rd and long. They are only allowing 30.1% on 3rd down conversions this year and doing it without the benefit of a lot of sacks (they are as bad as Texas is in that capacity). Texas has actually been reasonably good on 3rd down this year on offense which will be critical in this game to keep up. Too many wasted drives against OSU-that can not happen this week. Texas must be good on first down this week and play against tendencies. Expect that WVa will aggressively attack on first down to get Texas in predictable 3rd and long situations. If Texas can avoid that, they can sustain drives and keep up on the scoreboard. 

I don't expect special teams to make a significant difference in the game as WVa is neither exceptional nor poor on special teams. Our punting game is still problematic and Bujcevski did have a poor 4th quarter punt that gave OSU insurance points to secure the victory. Net punting for Texas has been a huge problem that won't go away this year and we will likely continue to give up points off of it. We knew it would be tough to replace Dicko, but this has frankly been worse than expected. 

Smells like back to back losses to me. Know Herman's teams generally overperform in this situation, but matchups matter in football and this is not one that plays to our strengths. We'd be better suited playing a team like LSU this week if we were trying to score the Herman upset special.

 

On 10/31/2018 at 8:59 AM, PencilPusher said:

Easy there big fella.........no sob story here. Yes the corners were dumbasses but the coaching staff (with an extra week to prepare) did not do enough to effectively counter both that issue and other obvious weaknesses. Texas beat OU simply because the offense executed at a level they hadn't done before that game (or since). There were 5 or 6 wasted possessions against OSU that if Texas had been more effective on just 2 or 3 of those, its a win. The point is simply this....unless Texas can generate multiple turnovers (which we have only done in 2 games this year) and not give up field position off of special teams issues, WVa is going to put up points. Our defense still has talent issues and some schematic gaps that WVa can exploit (in ways the rest of the schedule can't). The key will be our offense taking advantage of a significant number of its possessions and getting points. We will need 35+ to have a shot at winning. 

And for the record, on the other thread I did have us winning out after this game so no one is jumping off a bridge. 

I must say, your predictions (save for the WVU defense being remote competent) were on point. I hope you're right about the remainder of the season.

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