2018-2019 MLB Offseason Thread

[TheFlagship 432]

14 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

lmao at Tatis above Vlad Jr.  

I think it’s defensible. Vlad is going to be a DH-only in his mid 20s and Tatis can play SS. Law definitely prefers up the middle players in his evaluations though.

Either way, it’s splitting hairs. These guys could be the AL and NL MVPs in 3 years.

[Fozzz 152]

10 minutes ago, TheFlagship said:

I think it’s defensible. Vlad is going to be a DH-only in his mid 20s and Tatis can play SS. Law definitely prefers up the middle players in his evaluations though.

Either way, it’s splitting hairs. These guys could be the AL and NL MVPs in 3 years.

Vlad is the best hitting prospect I've ever seen.  He's projected to be a 4-5 WAR player for 2019 and he hasn't even turned 20 yet.  While Tatis can probably handle SS in the majors he's not an elite fielder at that position and he's likely going to struggle with contact throughout his career.  

Edited January 30, 2019 by Fozzz

[TheFlagship 432]

Yeah I’m not knocking Vlad. He’s gonna mash and I’m exicted to see him play this year. I do think it’s fair to point out that his portly body shape doesn’t lend itself to a long career in the field which may prevent him from reaching the 8+ WAR seasons that Tatis could see at his peak. 

Tatis has had higher K rates but he’s been young at every level and has supplemented the K% with strong BB%. I don’t think it’s fair to say he will struggle with contact when he’s played well at AA at 20 years old.

[Fozzz 152]

While Tatis was obviously young for the Texas League, but his walk rate was below league average last year and his K% was obviously above league average.  He's basically carried himself through BABIP and power, and the BABIP could be a mirage as he doesn't have great wheels and the ability he has shown in the minors to suppress IFFB has been nothing special.

I could definitely see Vlad Jr. moving to DH as he ages but that's more of a concern for the team that signs him as a free agent than for the Blue Jays.  

[TheFlagship 432]

32 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

While Tatis was obviously young for the Texas League, but his walk rate was below league average last year and his K% was obviously above league average.  He's basically carried himself through BABIP and power, and the BABIP could be a mirage as he doesn't have great wheels and the ability he has shown in the minors to suppress IFFB has been nothing special.

I could definitely see Vlad Jr. moving to DH as he ages but that's more of a concern for the team that signs him as a free agent than for the Blue Jays.  

I think you’re scouting the stat line a little too much on Tatis. He was the youngest player in the TX league by 6 months and mashed. He’s only going to improve on what was already an impressive baseline.

[Beau Vine 53978]

Brisbee to the Athletic.  Jeez, the debate now would be are there any great baseball writers who aren't at theAthletic?  I guess Passan. 

[huge 3788]

21 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Brisbee to the Athletic.  Jeez, the debate now would be are there any great baseball writers who aren't at theAthletic?  I guess Passan. 

well shiiiiiiiittttttttttt, he is going to focus on the fucking Giants (again)?

[CBT 1281]

Yes

https://theathletic.com/791951/2019/01/30/grant-brisbee-why-im-joining-the-athletic/

 

 

[JimmyHoffa 1188]

On 1/29/2019 at 8:56 AM, TheFlagship said:

That’s sad. That was one of ESPNs best shows in the 2000s. Obviously it’s gone downhill the last decade along with their general baseball coverage

 

On 1/29/2019 at 10:02 AM, shnsajax said:

Yeah it sucks, was great when Gammons was on it. MLB Network is so good that it stood no chance with ESPNs layoffs.

 

Correct on both accounts. Same thing is happening with ESPN NFL studio shows vs. the NFL Network. 

 

[Hank Chinaski 6310]

List of worst contracts for each team from ESPN today. Good lord some of these are awful. I know people complain about the FA market, but the first few names on this list  give a pretty good idea why teams are less willing to give tons of money to older players.

Chris Davis...holy hell. 

Spoiler

1. Baltimore Orioles: Chris Davis (4 years, $92 million)

Davis' 2018 season goes beyond description and the historic nature of it -- and the four years remaining on his contract -- put him in the top spot. Davis hit .168, struck out 192 times in 522 plate appearances, and Baseball-Reference pegged his value at minus-2.8 WAR, which somehow ranks only seventh worst among position players since 1950. Given that his OPS has declined from .923 to .792 to .732 to .539 the past four seasons, the odds of a comeback appear slim.

2. Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera (5 years, $154 million)

The problem with the Cabrera contract is simply the total dollars for a player who has been injured the past two seasons (two herniated discs in his back in 2017, ruptured biceps in 2018). Sure, there is hope of a comeback for one of the best hitters in the game's history, but he turns 36 in April, and he'll be making $32 million per year at ages 39 and 40.

3. Los Angeles Angels: Albert Pujols (3 years, $87 million)

Pujols has been a below-average hitter the past two seasons with a .243/.287/.397 line. That's below average among all hitters, not just first basemen and DHs. The Angels have Shohei Ohtani to DH once he returns from Tommy John surgery and also signed Justin Bour, so it's not even clear how much Pujols will play in 2019. One note about the Pujols contract: A few days after signing Pujols (and C.J. Wilson), the Angels signed a 20-year TV deal worth an estimated $3 billion. While the Pujols/Mike Trout era has included just one playoff appearance, one can argue Arte Moreno has still benefited greatly from signing Pujols. In the end, the owners always win.

4. San Diego Padres: Eric Hosmer (7 years, $123 million)

Hosmer has had a weird "he's good every other year" thing going on for his career, so this isn't discounting the possibility that he'll be better in 2019 and the future. But even his good seasons weren't so good that a team -- especially a small-market one like the Padres -- should have made him the franchise player with a $144 million contract. Even accounting for intangibles like leadership or the "this proves we're trying to win" factor, this deal was a complete misfire by Padres management.

5. San Francisco Giants: Johnny Cueto (3 years, $70.4 million)

Cueto is hardly the only choice here -- there are several reasons the Giants had one of the highest payrolls and still lost 89 games (and 98 the year before). Cueto had Tommy John surgery in August, so there's a chance he misses all of 2019 or just makes a few starts at the end of the season. After that? Who knows.

6. Chicago Cubs: Jason Heyward (5 years, $118.5 million)

I know Cubs fans would put this No. 1. It's not. Heyward isn't as useless as some of the players listed here, but the length of the deal and the remaining dollars certainly are an issue. He eats up a large chunk of the payroll, and that could have ramifications down the road -- say in 2022 when Kris Bryant and Javier Baez become free agents. Heyward's defensive metrics, while still positive, dropped along with his offensive production last year, and that's where a lot of his value comes from. Look, don't feel bad for the Ricketts family or even Cubs fans. They've benefited from the cheap labor of Bryant and Baez, and Heyward and the fans will always have 2016 -- no matter what happens the next five years.

7. New York Yankees: Jacoby Ellsbury (2 years, $47.2 million, including $5 million buyout)

My take is this deal -- essentially dead money, unless Ellsbury actually makes the team as a backup outfielder after missing all of 2018 -- is worse than the $270 million owed Giancarlo Stanton over the next nine seasons. Sure, Stanton disappointed Yankees fans with a mere 38-homer, 4.0-WAR season, and there is obvious risk that the back end of his contract is bad, but he's entering his age-29 season and should still have several big seasons in him. Would the Yankees like a redo and gamble instead on Bryce Harper? Maybe. But I know they'd want a redo on the Ellsbury contract.

8. Toronto Blue Jays: Troy Tulowitzki (2 years, $37.5 million)

The once-great Tulo didn't play at all in 2018 and the Jays released him after the season, with the Yankees picking up $555,000 of his 2019 salary. The Jays will be responsible for the $14 million owed him in 2020, plus the $4 million buyout. That figure could climb even higher: His salary could go up $6 million based on MVP voting. The Jays also will be paying Russell Martin $16.4 million to play for the Dodgers.

9. Colorado Rockies: Ian Desmond (3 years, $40 million, including $2 million buyout)

Desmond's five-year, $70 million deal was widely panned from the get-go and has been a disaster for the Rockies, who have won a wild-card game the past two seasons nonetheless. In fact, you can argue that Desmond's contract is worse than dead money for Ellsbury or Tulowitzki since he has been worth minus-1.7 WAR the past two seasons -- worse than replacement level. After playing first base in 2018, the new plan apparently has him playing center field in 2019. Hmm.

10. Miami Marlins: Wei-Yin Chen (2 years, $42 million)

Here's a prime example of why front offices have been so reluctant to hand out big money in free agency the past two winters. Chen was a good-not-great starter with the Orioles, signed an $80 million contract with the Marlins of all teams, and has gone 13-18, 4.75 in three seasons with them.

11. St. Louis Cardinals: Dexter Fowler (3 years, $49.5 million)

OK, last season was an unmitigated debacle as Fowler hit .180/.278/.298 for minus-1.4 WAR. He's not guaranteed a starting job in 2019, with Tyler O'Neilland Jose Martinez both capable of playing right field (or, in Martinez's case, faking it). I'm not convinced Fowler is washed up, but he'll be 33, and that's a scary age when it comes to outfielders.

12. New York Mets: Yoenis Cespedes (2 years, $58.5 million)

Yes, I'd rather have Robinson Cano for five years and $100 million (the Mariners will pay him an addition $20 million) because Cano at least is still a good player. Cespedes will miss a large chunk of 2019 after surgery on both heels, and we don't know when he'll come back or whether he'll even be effective. For a four-year, $110 million deal, the Mets have so far received 119 games and 3.0 WAR ... and a salary chewing up a portion of the payroll that could have gone to Bryce Harper.

13. Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg (5 years, $138.3 million) or Patrick Corbin (6 years, $140 million)

Take your pick. Strasburg's deal includes a ton of deferred money, and he'll make $45 million in 2023, when he's 34. That's mostly an accounting trick, although perhaps one that benefits a 92-year-old owner. Corbin's deal also is backloaded as he'll make $12.9 million this season and $35.4 million in 2024. Anyway ... Strasburg certainly is effective when he's healthy, but he has qualified for the ERA title just once in the past four seasons, and Corbin will have to prove 2018 wasn't a fluke. I don't know, both deals just feel enormously risky in long-term value.

14. Boston Red Sox: Pablo Sandoval (1 year, $23.6 million, including $5 million buyout)

David Price will earn $127 million over the next four years. He could have opted out but didn't, knowing he wouldn't touch that in free agency. So you could go with Price here, I guess, but the dude did have a 4.4-WAR season and just won the Red Sox a ring. Flags fly forever.

15. Kansas City Royals: Ian Kennedy (2 years, $33 million)

Danny Duffy is under contract for three more years and $46 million, and both were bad in 2018, but Duffy has the better chance of bouncing back.

16. Los Angeles Dodgers: Homer Bailey (1 year, $28 million, including $5 million buyout)/Yaisel Sierra (3 years, $20 million)/Hector Olivera (2 years, $9.3 million)

This one was a little tricky. Bailey came over as part of the Yasiel Puig/Matt Kemp trade and the Dodgers immediately released him. In essence, the Dodgers exchanged the salaries of Puig and Kemp for Bailey and bought prospects Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray in the process. If those two pan out -- or even if one does -- it could be a good deal for the Dodgers. On the other hand, the Dodgers are paying these guys not to play for them in 2019: Bailey ($28 million), Kemp ($10.5 million), Sierra ($5 million) and Olivera ($4.6 million) ... or $48.1 million.

17. Seattle Mariners: Kyle Seager (3 years, $57.5 million)

The Mariners have several candidates to choose from, but these are mostly "wish we didn't have them" deals rather than disasters. Felix Hernandezis in the final year of his deal and will make $27.8 million, they'll pay Robinson Cano $20 million to play for the Mets, they took on $28 million owed Jay Bruce, and they're paying Mike Leake a lot to be a No. 4 starter. I was always a little skeptical of Seager's $100 million extension because of his lack of athleticism (he can't run) and one-dimensional swing (he's a dead pull hitter who has been hurt by the shift). He hit .221/.273/.400 last year, but did play with a fractured toe in the second half, so maybe he bounces back.

18. Arizona Diamondbacks: Zack Greinke (3 years, $104.5 million)

After a less-than-stellar first season with the Diamondbacks, Greinke topped 200 innings the past two seasons with ERAs of 3.20 and 3.21 in a hitters park. His 10.3 WAR over those two seasons ranks eighth among starting pitchers, so the idea that Greinke hasn't lived up to the contract doesn't really add up. That said, if Greinke's contract was viewed as a good deal, they'd have traded him this offseason -- and that hasn't happened.

19. Texas Rangers: Prince Fielder (2 years, $18 million)

I'm not exactly sure where to rank this one. You can argue that paying Fielder $18 million over the next two years is a better option than paying Joey Votto at least $132 million over the next five. On the other hand, Votto might actually help you win a lot of baseball games over that time. Fielder will actually make $24 million each of the next two seasons -- the Tigers will chip in $6 million per season and insurance covers another $9 million. If you prefer an active player, Shin-Soo Choo will make $42 million the next two seasons. I'm sure the Rangers would prefer not to be paying that for a 36-year-old DH, but at least Choo posted a .377 OBP/2.8-WAR season in 2018.

20. Milwaukee Brewers: Ryan Braun (2 years, $40 million, including $4 million buyout)

Meh. Braun has been worth 1.2 WAR in 2017 and 1.1 in 2018. I'd rather gamble on Domingo Santana, whom the Brewers traded to the Mariners this offseason. Braun signed his megadeal in April 2011 and won the MVP award that season and finished second in 2012. Would the Brewers do the deal again? In a sense, those first two seasons paid for the entire contract. He was suspended in 2013 for "violations of the Basic Agreement and its Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program," but at least he's providing some value at the tail end of his deal.

21. Cincinnati Reds: Joey Votto (5 years, $132 million, including $7 million buyout)

At $25 million per year and Votto entering his age-35 season, there is obvious risk here given his sudden decline in power last season, from 36 home runs to 12. His batting average fell from .320 to .284, although he still led the NL with a .417 OBP. I'm not completely comfortable with the back end of this deal, but getting on base is still an extremely valuable skill, and even in a bad year Votto was worth 3.5 WAR.

22. Cleveland Indians: Carlos Santana (2 years, $35.6 million, including $500,000 buyout)

The Indians flipped one year of Edwin Encarnacion for two years of Santana, a higher overall payout but spread over two seasons. Santana hit 24 home runs and drew 110 walks for the Phillies last year, and he's extremely durable (he has averaged 156 games the past six seasons). It's certainly not a bad contract, although Santana wouldn't get $35 million if he hit free agency this winter.

23. Philadelphia Phillies: Jake Arrieta (2 years, $45 million)

Arrieta's contract is interesting because of the unusual opt-out clause: He can opt out after 2019, but the Phillies can void that opt-out by exercising options for 2021 and 2022 at $20 million per year. Frankly, with the way Arrieta pitched in 2018 (3.96 ERA, declining K rate), neither scenario appears likely, leaving him (and the Phillies) with two years and $45 million remaining.

24. Atlanta Braves: Darren O'Day (1 year, $9 million)

The sidearmer came over last summer in the Kevin Gausman trade, although he was out with a hamstring injury and never pitched for Atlanta. He hasn't matched his 2012-2015 peak in recent seasons but was solid with the Orioles in 2017 and could provide value to the Braves' bullpen in 2019. And if not? No harm, no foul since it's the last season of his contract. As an aside: With all these young players coming up to the Braves, it will be interesting to see if Liberty Media will be able to extend any of them to team-friendly deals like it was able to do with Freddie Freeman, Ender Inciarte and Julio Teheran.

25. Oakland Athletics: Joakim Soria (2 years, $15 million)

This was an interesting buy earlier this winter by the A's. I'd prefer them to have spent that money on the rotation, but sometimes you have to get what you can afford, and the A's have a recent history of signing relievers to deals like this -- like Ryan Madson, whom they later flipped with Sean Doolittleto the Nationals for Blake Treinen and Jesus Luzardo.

26. Houston Astros: Yuli Gurriel (2 years, $18.8 million)

Gurriel is a solid regular, although his .291/.323/.428 is hardly special for a first baseman. Still, the money isn't significant; you'd just prefer to pay a young, cheaper player for that level of performance. What will be more interesting is to see how the Jose Altuve contract plays out -- six years, $154 million remain and his salary rockets up from $9.5 million in 2019 to $29 million in 2020. The contract runs through his age-34 season, and while his numbers were down last season, he played through a bad knee. If he stays healthy, he should provide enough value to make the contract a worthy investment.

27. Minnesota Twins: Phil Hughes (1 year, $5.95 million)

You can't have any bad contracts when you don't sign anybody to long-term deals. The Twins' past two offseasons have been curious as they've had all kinds of payroll flexibility and yet have played it more conservatively. Anyway, the Twins are flushing $5.95 million down the toilet on Hughes, who is no longer on the roster. They're not even paying the highest percentage of Hughes' salary: The Padres will pay him $7.25 million not to pitch for them.

28. Tampa Bay Rays: Kevin Kiermaier (4 years, $43.9 million, including $2.5 million buyout)

Kiermaier's defense is so good that even last year, despite playing just 88 games and hitting just .217/.282/.370, he was valued at 2.5 WAR (1.6 on FanGraphs, which historically has lower estimates on his defensive value). Even for a penny-pinching club like the Rays, I don't think they mind this deal. There is some risk in that Kiermaier has missed significant time two seasons in a row, he could lose a step or two in the outfield as he gets older, and his bat was pretty useless in 2018.

29. Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu (1 year, $16 million)

 

The only White Sox player signed beyond 2020 is Tim Anderson, but the money is minimal and the risk is mitigated by $1 million buyout clauses at the back end. So that leaves Abreu, who is in the final year of what was deemed a risky deal at the time, but has proved to be a worthy investment. He fell off in 2018, however, with a .265/.325/.473 line, worth just 1.7 WAR. He is also just one season removed from 4.7 WAR, so this final year could still prove to be a bargain if he rebounds.

30. Pittsburgh Pirates: Gregory Polanco (5 years, $52.3 million)

When the Pirates signed Polanco to a seven-year extension in April 2016, they thought they were getting a potential All-Star at a steep discount. That hasn't happened, but it's still a good contract for the Pirates even as Polanco has settled into a league-average performer. The risk is even lower than the numbers above indicate because the final two years are team options at $12.5 million and $13.5 million. Basically, Polanco has a good chance to outearn this contract, and there is no downside for the Pirates if he gets hurt or loses all his ability in a couple of years.

 

 

[Beau Vine 53978]

 

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

5 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

 

Such an incredible record. I mentioned this in the Astros thread already, but to put this in perspective: if a pitcher threw 300 Ks for 15 seasons, he would still be over 1,200 Ks short of Nolan's record. 

[Pato del Muerto 52336]

That got me poking around. Of the 16 pitchers with 3000 strikeouts, only 3 had more K than IP. Nolan, randy Johnson, and Pedro. 

And Nolan was the 4th pitcher to reach it, in 1980. 12 since then. 

I wonder what nolan’s K rate would be in this current era of mlb, as well as some of the others. 

Walter Johnson pitched almost 6000 innings.  500 more than anyone else in the club. Pedro only 2800. 

And of course only 2 are not in the HOF. 

Edited January 31, 2019 by Pato del Muerto

[UTexasFight 9375]

As crazy as the K graph is, the BBs graph would be even funnier (spoiler: he has 52% more career walks than the next guy).

So many unbreakable records.
The career walks and single season K records are just as, if not more, impossible to break than the career Ks

[spystud13 2371]

Schoenfield’s worst contract for each team. 

Quote

9. Colorado Rockies: Ian Desmond (3 years, $40 million, including $2 million buyout)

Desmond's five-year, $70 million deal was widely panned from the get-go and has been a disaster for the Rockies, who have won a wild-card game the past two seasons nonetheless. In fact, you can argue that Desmond's contract is worse than dead money for Ellsbury or Tulowitzki since he has been worth minus-1.7 WAR the past two seasons -- worse than replacement level. After playing first base in 2018, the new plan apparently has him playing center field in 2019. Hmm.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25885766/ranking-worst-current-contracts-all-30-teams

 

[TheFlagship 432]

These are pretty rosy projections. Maybe the Reds do know what they’re doing?

[Beau Vine 53978]

Gotdamn...

 

[Goo Punch 4275]

I thought this was a really interesting watch/listen. Whether or not you agree with every bit of this, I think we all would love to see the MLB catch up to the NFL and NBA in terms of media content and modernizing the experience.

 

[Beau Vine 53978]

"Save MLB??"  Fuck you Gary V, you smarmy fuck. whoever the fuck you are.

[Helobious 9480]

4 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

"Save MLB??"  Fuck you Gary V, you smarmy fuck. whoever the fuck you are.

He actually does have some good ideas in that vid. He's a textbook "motivational speaker/social media influencer" con-man. Very popular/well-known. Says things of absolutely zero substance with a lot of assertiveness and cussing, which the masses just eat up. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19144]

6 hours ago, Helobious said:

He actually does have some good ideas in that vid. He's a textbook "motivational speaker/social media influencer" con-man. Very popular/well-known. Says things of absolutely zero substance with a lot of assertiveness and cussing, which the masses just eat up. 

The best idea in that video was broadcasting batting practice.  No commentary or anything, just some cameras and mics setup in the right places and go for it.

I think live coverage of the bullpens should also be included in that same idea.

[ERhine 1894]

9 hours ago, Helobious said:

He actually does have some good ideas in that vid. 

9 hours ago, Helobious said:

Says things of absolutely zero substance with a lot of assertiveness and cussing, which the masses just eat up. 

lol.

[Goo Punch 4275]

The one thing I am in total agreement with Gary V on is how weak it was for the MLB to hoard all of its content for so many years. I remember the first time I went to youtube looking for an MLB highlight and I was shocked to find fuckin' nothin'. Only fan uploaded videos shot with cell phones from games. At least they finally made all of that content available. I should be able to watch Glenallen Hill hit a ball 520 feet any time I want to damn it. 

[Beau Vine 53978]

5 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

The one thing I am in total agreement with Gary V on is how weak it was for the MLB to hoard all of its content for so many years.

There are zero people in the world who think that was a good idea.  Even MLB admits it was a mistake.

[Beau Vine 53978]

10 hours ago, Helobious said:

He's a textbook "motivational speaker/social media influencer" con-man. Very popular/well-known. Says things of absolutely zero substance with a lot of assertiveness and cussing, which the masses just eat up. 

When you're right, you're right. 

[spystud13 2371]

So, when do the two big boys sign? I really, really want Manny to wind up with CWS. 

[spystud13 2371]

So what the fuck did Adnan Virk leak to get fired? 

[gsoda3 3234]

So what the fuck did Adnan Virk leak to get fired? 

Info about ESPN's future direction with Sunday night baseball.

[spystud13 2371]

An older woman died from a foul ball at Dodger Stadium in August. 

http://www.espn.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/25926592/fan-struck-head-foul-ball-dodgers-game-died-blunt-force-injury

 

[Bartles 769]

23 hours ago, spystud13 said:

So, when do the two big boys sign? I really, really want Manny to wind up with CWS. 

Last year, Boras client Jake Arrieta didn't sign until March 12 and he got a pretty friendly deal from the Phillies, though it was much less than Boras was looking for earlier in the winter. Same with Moustakas who had to settle for a one-year deal last minute.

My uninformed guess is that Machado will wait out Harper, because if Bryce doesn't take the Phillies offer they may have to really throw money at Manny to salvage the off-season. If Bryce does come to Philly, the White Sox may win Manny by default.

[TheFlagship 432]

On 2/4/2019 at 9:16 AM, spystud13 said:

So, when do the two big boys sign? I really, really want Manny to wind up with CWS. 

Manny on the South Side and Bryce in San Diego wouldn’t suck. Too bad the Pads blew their load on Eric Hosmer.

[Beau Vine 53978]

Quote

The left-on-left specialist — a left-handed reliever who sometimes faces only one left-handed hitter — soon might be an endangered species in Major League Baseball.

As part of a Jan. 14 proposal to the players’ union on pace of play, baseball suggested a rule requiring pitchers to face a minimum of three batters, sources told The Athletic.

The Major League Baseball Players Association responded last Friday with its own comprehensive proposal that addressed the players’ concerns on competitive integrity and service-time manipulation in multifaceted fashion, sources said. A lowering of a team’s draft position for failing to reach a specified win total in a certain number of seasons is believed to be part of the union’s plan.

A universal designated hitter — something the players have sought for more than three decades, according to commissioner Rob Manfred — also was part of the union’s proposal. Under the plan, the National League would adopt the DH for the 2019 season.

The dueling proposals marked an acceleration in the negotiations between baseball and the union over ways to improve the game. Further ideas and potential tradeoffs are certain to be explored in the weeks ahead. The union, with its proposal, addressed the criticism of baseball officials who said they have experienced repeated frustration trying to engage the MLBPA in conversation.

If no agreement is reached, the collective bargaining agreement empowers Manfred to unilaterally implement three elements he formally proposed last year, according to sources — a 20-second pitch clock, a reduction of mound visits from six to five and a rule placing a baserunner on second base in spring training games and the All-Star Game when the score is tied after the 10th inning.

Baseball’s current proposal includes one slight modification from the above provisions, reducing mound visits from six to four in ‘19 and four to three in ‘20. It also includes an expansion of rosters from 25 to 26 in ‘20, with an accompanying reduction from 40 to 28 in September.

The Associated Press previously reported that baseball also has proposed increasing the minimum time a player spends on the disabled list and amount of time an optioned player spends in the minor leagues from 10 to 15 days.

The most dramatic change, however, would be the three-batter minimum for starting pitchers and relievers.

The rule, as it applies to starters, would prevent the situation that occurred in Game 5 of the National League Championship Series, when the Brewers used left-hander Wade Miley for only one batter before removing him for right-hander Brandon Woodruff in a game the Dodgers won, 5-2.

The introduction of “the opener” last season produced only five regular-season games in which starting pitchers faced fewer than three hitters, according to data compiled from Baseball-Reference.com. Baseball’s far greater concern is the slower pace that results from managers using multiple relievers in an inning to gain a platoon advantage, especially late in games.

In baseball’s view, the limit on reliever usage would become even more necessary with the introduction of a 26-man roster; MLB would want to discourage teams from using the extra roster spot on another bullpen arm.

The overall percentage of relief appearances lasting less than three batters began to rise when Hall of Fame manager Tony La Russa helped launch specialized bullpens in the late 1980s. But it mostly has held steady in the three decades since, ranging from 15.5 to 15.1 to 15.7 percent, including 14.1 percent last season.

Some with MLB believe the three-batter minimum might help restore the value of starting pitchers, prompting teams to stay with their starters longer (only 13 pitchers threw 200 innings last season, the fewest in history). Others disagree, saying the need for more versatile relievers actually would create more options for a manager, potentially enabling him to get even more innings out of his bullpen.

One thing seems certain: A three-batter minimum would create fewer platoon advantages, theoretically helping to decrease strikeouts and increase action in a sport that has set strikeout records 11 consecutive years and last season had more strikeouts than hits for the first time in its history.

The introduction of a universal DH would be another move to increase offense. Pitchers last season batted .115 with a .144 on-base average and .149 slugging percentage in 4,524 at-bats. But whether baseball would agree to such a change as part of the give-and-take of negotiations is unclear.

Manfred, speaking at the end of the quarterly owners’ meetings in June, indicated that momentum was building among owners toward a universal DH, saying, “I think that the dialogue actually probably moved a little bit.”

Tony Clark, the head of the players’ union, said the idea also was “gaining momentum” among the players in a conversation with the Baseball Writers Association of America at the All-Star Game in July. But Manfred, addressing the same group, seemed wary of the NL adopting a rule the AL embraced in 1973.

“I think since I became involved — and this may give too much credit to my deal-making ability — I could have made a deal with the MLBPA on extending the DH to the National League,” Manfred said. “I think that’s been pretty consistent with the players since 1987, so I don’t think there’s a real headline there.

“I think the most likely outcome at this point remains status quo. I think one of the things we need to think about, extinction is a bad word, right? It’s a harsh word. It’s a very final word. If you get rid of the DH in the National League, there is a brand of baseball — the non-DH brand — that is done. Not played anywhere that’s meaningful any longer. I think there’s going to be hesitation with respect to that.”

I'm excited.  The 3-batter minimum is the #1 rule change I'd make if I had the power.  Honestly, though, I'd make it a 10-batter minimum.  

[cmontexas 3248]

What happens if a guy gets injured after facing 1 batter? 

 

What if a guy fakes getting injured after facing one batter? Mandatory DL time for injury exception??

Edited February 6, 2019 by cmontexas

[DanRydell 799]

What happens if a guy gets injured after facing 1 batter? 
 
What if a guy fakes getting injured after facing one batter? Mandatory DL time for injury exception

Yeah, if not a DL stint, at least requiring them to skip the nest 2-3 games I’d assume.

That would be a huge upgrade in the game watching experience.

[Beau Vine 53978]

I'm wondering what happens if a reliever beans his first hitter and gets ejected?  An immediate 2-3 game suspension?

[spystud13 2371]

Yes to the 12-pitcher limit, hard pass on the early trade deadline. 

[spystud13 2371]

 

That’s an interesting use of the word elite. .2 bWAR last year, 4.2 combined over last 3.

JAG would work much better. 

[Pato del Muerto 52336]

I must be simple. Do the players think that draft advantages for winning teams and penalties for losing teams will help with competition?  

Wouldn’t a salary floor be a better solution for the players?  

[TheFlagship 432]

Universal DH please. 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

 

Would normally keep that in the Mariners thread, but since it was discussed here a bit....

 

[Vic Mackey 46927]

Fuck no to a 20 second pitch clock. Absolutely idiotic.

Fuck yes to a universal DH. Pitchers batting is useless. I get there are a very few who can hit but those are extreme outliers. The rest are a joke and for good reason. They focus on pitching the entire time. And this will cut out all those dorky fans who tell us how smart NL baseball is and how great pitchers batting is for the game.

[Beau Vine 53978]

Soooo... Harper to the Giants?

[TheFlagship 432]

 

[Beau Vine 53978]

Is Jorge Alfaro's legacy going to be "that prospect that always got traded for the great players?"

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

 

[Scraps 13538]

Frank Robinson dead at 83

[Pig Bellmont 8691]

Hunter Pence to the Rangers. God bless that weirdo

[Scraps 13538]

1 hour ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Hunter Pence to the Rangers. God bless that weirdo

Well damn...I used to like him up to about 30 seconds ago 

[TheFlagship 432]

1 hour ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Hunter Pence to the Rangers. God bless that weirdo

Only a minor league deal. Have no idea how he would make the 25 unless there’s an injury. We already have plenty of outfielders who can’t play the outfield

[spystud13 2371]

Law on Jorge. 

Quote

Alfaro used to be a pretty terrible framer himself, but he worked at it, and the Phillies helped him work at it, so that he's about average now, and he has a cannon of an arm. He's a poor blocker and receiver, leading the National League in passed balls last year while coming in one wild pitch behind the leader in that category. But Alfaro's main issue is and always has been that he's an inveterate hacker at the plate: He drew 12 unintentional walks last year in over 370 plate appearances, and even that is with the benefit of batting eighth most of the time he was in the lineup. He'll play at 26 years old this year, and in over 3,400 professional plate appearances, he has an unintentional walk rate of 4 percent. I hate to say a player can't change, but he's here in his mold. He was about a 1.5- to 2-win player last year and that's probably what he'll be.