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2018-2019 MLB Offseason Thread

Beau Vine

By Beau Vine
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MAROON
MAROON

best comment i read so far about the contract length.   "There are Phillies fans not yet born that will be throwing batteries at him in the later years of this contract".

Beau Vine
Beau Vine

From Levi Weaver's column in The Athletic:  

Beau Vine
Beau Vine

Gammons rambles way too much and it's like his editors are afraid to touch his work, but I like him because he loves baseball.  Not just MLB.  Gammons loves BASEBALL. And he hit this one out of t

Beau Vine

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1 hour ago, UTexasFight said:


One 90 win team in the NL?
Oof

Projections always show lower win totals at the top and higher win totals at the bottom.  To win 95+, you also have to have good luck; to lose 95+, you have to have bad luck, neither of which is going to show up in projections. 

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Beau Vine

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Stark with another opus:

 

Spoiler

 

Stark: The 2019 spring training preview extravaganza

Jayson Stark 2h ago comment-icon@2x.png 15 save-icon@2x.png

Great news. We made it. We did it. We survived another baseball winter. And you know what that means. It means – woohoo – it’s that time again.

Time to forget about Stephen Gostkowski and focus on David Dombrowski. Time to stop stressing over the Mueller report and start stressing over the (Lance) McCullers (health) report. Time to tune out the Kominsky Method and tune into the Baldelli Method.

In other words, it’s time once again to start spinning those turnstiles at Salt River Fields and Joker Marchant Stadium. Time to program that GPS for Jupiter, for Goodyear, for Port St. Lucie, for all your favorite long-lost spring metropolii.

Yes, spring training is finally upon us. So to help us pinpoint the storylines we need to hone in on, we just finished polling 30 esteemed baseball managers, coaches, scouts and executives. What’s on their minds? Read on. We’ll let them tell you!

Will the marquee free agents ever sign?

It’s Feb. 14. And we’re not sure if anyone has mentioned this, but…there’s a 26-year-old former MVP (Bryce Harper), a 26-year-old perennial all-star (Manny Machado), a former Cy Young (Dallas Keuchel) and one of the greatest closers in history (Craig Kimbrel) who are still unemployed. This. Is. Insane.

“Wouldn’t it be weird,” asked one participant in our survey, “if LeBron James and Steph Curry were free agents and still unsigned going into NBA training camps?”

Hey, you think? In any other sport, this would be regarded as a scandal, possibly even a fiasco. So why, in baseball, do people so casually refer to it as “the new normal?” In reality, it’s a sign of monumental dysfunction that should have everyone on both sides scrambling to find a solution – and it feels like now would be a better time to find it than, say, 2022.

But this is the Spring Preview column, not the Labor Deal Preview column. So if you just look at the on-field impact, it’s mind-boggling to think of the big names who are about to drop out of the sky into multiple teams’ camps this spring – and change the way we look at practically everything.

SURVEY SAID … OK, digest this: When we asked our panelists to vote on the least improved teams in each league, you know how many teams got votes? How about 25! Hard to fathom that the only clubs to get a pass were the Yankees, Phillies, Mets, Nationals and White Sox. Unreal.

Has anything changed in the AL?

We’ve conducted this survey for many years. In all those years, we never once asked anyone to name their “Three Most Improved Teams” and thought that was some kind of brain-warping stumper. But then the American League, 2019 edition, came along.

Would you believe that nearly two-thirds of the voters who responded to this survey couldn’t even come up with a three-deep list of AL teams that got better over the winter? Would you believe there was one executive who actually refused to put any AL teams on his Most Improved list? Seriously. This has to be the weirdest offseason ever.

“It’s like watching Seinfeld,” joked one longtime exec the other day. “It’s an offseason about nothing.”

Of the 30 participants in this poll, 27 put the Yankees on their Most Improved list. After that, it went: Twins 10, Rays 10, Angels 4, White Sox 4. But is there a playoff team anywhere in that second tier? Have any of those teams passed the four super teams – Red Sox, Yankees, Astros, Indians – that have dominated this league over the last two years? It was hard to find anyone who would make that case.

“We already know four of the five playoff teams in that league right now,” said an NL executive. “So basically, the whole American League is going to play for the next 7 ½ months to determine the second wild card.”

SURVEY SAID … How confusing is the American League right now? Nine different AL teams got votes for most improved and least improved teams. And 13 of the 15 teams in the league got at least one vote on somebody’s least-improved list. Is that good?

Who’s the beast of the NL East?

Meanwhile, over in the National League, we’re heartened to report that the Most Improved balloting was way more action-packed. The leader board looked like this:

Mets: 24
Phillies: 22
Reds: 20
Nationals: 10
Cardinals: 10

The Braves also got votes, which means the baseball people we surveyed think four of the six most improved teams in the NL are jammed into the most fascinating division in baseball, the NL East. Those four clubs took on contracts totaling an incredible $436 million this winter, if you count what the Mets owe Robinson Canó. That makes this the only division in baseball in which four teams were actively going for it this winter.

But does this voting tell us that the Mets (after adding Canó, Edwin Díaz, Wilson Ramos, Jeurys Familia, Justin Wilson, Jed Lowrie, etc.) and Phillies (with J.T. Realmuto, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen, David Robertson and possibly a “Stupid Money” free agent) are now the two best teams in this division? Hmmm.

Are they really better than the Nationals (Patrick Corbin, Brian Dozier, Kurt Suzuki, Yan Gomes, Aníbal Sánchez, Kyle Barraclough, Trevor Rosenthal, Matt Adams) and Braves (Josh Donaldson, Brian McCann, Nick Markakis)? Hmmm.

“Boy, I don’t know,” said one NL exec. “This is definitely the toughest division to pick.”

SURVEY SAID… Amazingly, all but one vote in the Most Improved NL Team balloting went to teams from the NL East and Central. The only exception: The Dodgers, who got as many votes (one) in the Least Improved competition as they did in the Most Improved voting.

Who closes in Boston?

In this bullpen-centric age of ours, it feels as though it should be impossible to win a World Series without a dependable dominator at the back of your bullpen. But wait. Are we sure about that?

Did you know that in the last five World Series, the final out was collected by a pitcher who either didn’t start that season as his team’s closer or wasn’t a closer at all?

2018: Chris Sale
2017: Charlie Morton
2016: Mike Montgomery
2015: Wade Davis
2014: Madison Bumgarner

So does it matter as much as we think that the defending champs, the Red Sox, have waved farewell to Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly, who racked up 44 of their 46 regular-season saves last season – and seem totally content to just figure it out as they go along this spring? Well, we’re about to find out.

SURVEY SAID … The Red Sox got five votes as the Most Intriguing AL Team this spring. Three were because of that back-of-the-bullpen derby. The other two were centered around how tough it is to repeat – something the Red Sox last did in 1915 and 1916, when their winningest pitcher was some dude named Babe Ruth.

What should we make of the Cubs?

Is their Go Cubs Go beer mug half full or half empty? What exactly are we looking at here? Is this the greatest era of modern Cubs history? Or is this the most disappointing team of modern Cubs history?

It’s crazy that we’re asking these questions just 27 months after the Curse Busters Parade, of a team that has won more games over the last four seasons (387) than any franchise in this sport. But if you’ve paid attention to the words that have spun off Theo Epstein’s lips since last October, you’ll know exactly how he would answer them.

The Cubs president has spent the past four months dropping pearls like “disappointed” and “pissed off,” bemoaning his team’s lack of “killer instinct” and “sense of urgency,” and just this month describing the 95-win season of 2018 with these words: “Collective failure.” So…

That tells us, loud and clear, that this is the beginning of an important spring and pivotal season. For Joe Maddon, with the clock ticking on the final season of his deal. For a rock-star lineup that somehow hit just .235, with a .663 OPS, last September. For every darned one of the men in uniform, come to think of it. The Cubs made zero additions to their core of position players. So we’re about to learn how much this band wants to stay together beyond this year.

“Where are these guys?” asked one scout. “Are they still studs? Or is their window closing?”

SURVEY SAID…The Cubs had such a quiet offseason, they actually got the fourth-most votes (nine) in the Least Improved NL Teams balloting, behind the Marlins (18), Giants (16) and Diamondbacks (13). They got zero votes for Most Improved, incidentally.

Are the Cardinals going for the ‘gold’?

Here’s what people in St. Louis wanted the Cardinals to do this winter: Sign Bryce Harper.

Now here’s what the Cardinals actually did this winter: Trade for Paul Goldschmidt.

Guess what? They got the right guy. Let’s compare Goldy versus Bryce since 2013:

PLAYER WAR OPS+ SLG OBP HR
Goldschmidt 36.3 149 0.541 0.406 181
Harper 22.2 143 0.519 0.396 162

The only bad news: Goldschmidt is just a one-year rental who seems determined to test free agency. And so far, he’s shown no interest in one of those I just want to be happy discounts the Cardinals are so world famous at extracting. But one of our voters predicted, “He’ll be a Cardinal for life,” because it’s the safest bet of 2019 that St. Louis is about to shower love upon one of baseball’s most underrated stars. And that romance starts right there in Jupiter this spring.

“Goldschmidt is a superstar,” said one AL exec. “And in St Louis, he will be a much bigger deal then he was in Phoenix.”

SURVEY SAID … The Diamondbacks will be happy to know that at least our voters weren’t unanimous in saying the Cardinals got the better of that Goldschmidt trade.

Voters who liked the Cardinals’ half: 6
Voters who liked the Diamondbacks’ return*: 1
Voters who liked this trade for both teams: 1

(*-high-ceiling right-hander Luke Weaver, catching prospect Carson Kelly, infielder Andy Young and a competitive-balance round B pick)

Did any team make better trades than the Phillies?

For all the kudos our panelists bestowed on the Cardinals for the Goldschmidt deal, that was not the winner in our Best Trade of the Offseason balloting. In fact, it ranked third, behind two deals made by the same team – the Phillies:

J.T. Realmuto to Phillies: 14
Jean Segura to Phillies: 8
Goldschmidt to Cardinals: 7

*The widespread consensus on the Realmuto trade: The Phillies got “the best catcher in the game” and “a massive upgrade for them at the position on the field where there are no good players,” while the Marlins “didn’t get enough” for their last impact trade chip – in stud pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez, catcher Jorge Alfaro and left-hander Will Stewart.

*The reviews, from a rival NL exec, on the Phillies-Mariners deal that sent Segura, plus relievers Juan Nicasio and James Pazos, to Philly for Carlos Santana and shortstop J.P. Crawford: “A great trade for the Phillies. It helped them in so many ways. They got an upgrade at shortstop. They got a shortstop they didn’t like out of there. And it got Santana off of first base so they could get [Rhys] Hoskins back there. Just that one deal allowed them to upgrade at multiple positions.”

SURVEY SAID … Not surprisingly, the two other deals that got a bunch of votes in the best-trade voting involved the Mariners, a team that made eight significant trades this winter:

James Paxton to the Yankees: 6
Mariners move Cano’s money to Queens: 5

Are the Reds ready to contend?

The last time the Reds played a postseason game, Johnny Cueto was mysteriously unraveling in the 2013 Wild Card Game in Pittsburgh … Dusty Baker was about to move out of the manager’s office…and the Reds were about to make nearly a million fans a year disappear.

And so this winter – after losing 90-plus games four years in a row, for the first time in eight decades – the Reds decided it was time to do, well, something. But how much better are they this spring after adding Tanner Roark, Sonny Gray and Alex Wood to the rotation? How much more interesting are they after infusing Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp into their lineup? How ready are they to contend, for the first time in the post-Cueto/Dusty era?

Uh, first the good news: They got 20 votes in the Most Improved NL Team balloting. So that covers the they’re definitely better part.

The bad news: Roark, Puig, Kemp and Wood are all in their walk years. So even if everything goes euphorically, this group won’t be hanging together quite as long as the Big Red Machine.

“They should be good – for four months,” said one of our voters, “until they have to trade all their free agents at the deadline. So they’d better get off to a good start.”

There is actually a lot to like here. An astute new manager (David Bell). A new pitching coach (the highly regarded Derek Johnson, imported from Milwaukee). A new hitting coach (the equally highly regarded Turner Ward, imported from L.A.). And one of baseball’s most underrated lineups. Who knows where this is leading? But why do we have a feeling it will be tough to take our eyes off this team this spring?

SURVEY SAID … One red flag that arose in the voting: The Reds’ end of the Puig/Kemp/Wood deal got just two votes in the Best Trade balloting. But the Dodgers’ end – which was mostly an addition-by-subtraction-of-Puig/Kemp – also got two votes. Interesting!

Was Josh Donaldson the best free-agent signing of 2019?

The voting for Best Free-Agent Signing of the year was as surprising as it was confusing. The confusing part, we’ll get to shortly. The surprising part was that a guy who tied for first place in this voting was a fellow who played in just 52 games last year – and is coming off a season in which his OPS plummeted by 143 points.

That guy would be Josh Donaldson, fresh off a one-year, $23-million deal with the Braves, which he agreed to over Thanksgiving weekend, presumably while chomping on leftover mashed potatoes. We think there are two things we can learn from this, neither of which involves a mashed-potatoes recipe:

1) There’s nothing that modern baseball executives love more than one-year deals, even if they’re for more dollars than any previous one-year free-agent position-player deal in history.

2) There sure are a lot of people in baseball who think Josh Donaldson can still play if healthy. And they would be correct!

Did you know that, despite two straight years battling pesky calf injuries (attention: Francisco Lindor), Donaldson owns the highest OPS-Plus (138) of any active infielder in baseball who doesn’t play first base? Just Matt Carpenter (130) is even close. And the only seven active players at any position who rank ahead of him are Mike Trout, Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Paul Goldschmidt, Giancarlo Stanton and Bryce Harper.

So if he can make it through spring training without one or both of his calf muscles barking, Josh Donaldson has a chance to be one of 2019’s biggest difference-makers.

“This guy,” said one NL exec, “has the greatest risk/reward of the winter.”

SURVEY SAID…The voting leaders for best free-agent position-player signing had one common thread: None of them signed for more than two years!

Donaldson to the Braves: 11
Nelson Cruz to the Twins: 6
D.J. LeMahieu to the Yankees: 6
Yasmani Grandal to the Brewers: 6
Michael Brantley to the Astros: 6
Brian Dozier to the Nationals: 5

Who’s feeling the heat?

So you thought spring training was the most serene month and a half of the baseball year? Well, not for everybody.

One of the most fascinating questions we tossed out there was: “What team, manager or front office is feeling the most pressure this spring?” Here were the big three:

GABE KAPLER AND THE PHILLIES FRONT OFFICE (9 votes) – All the ingredients are in place. An ambitious owner (John Middleton) who will have big expectations after winning the winter. Six straight losing seasons. A messy collapse last August and September. A fan base that still isn’t sure what to make of the manager. New issues lurking from his time with the Dodgers. Stay tuned.

JOE MADDON (6 VOTES) – Allow us to translate a couple of key phrases for you. When front offices start expressing public concerns about their team’s lack of “urgency” or “killer instinct,” they expect their manager to fix that. So even for one of the best managers on the planet, the pressure cooker will be set on extra hot for Mr. Joseph J. Maddon this spring (and summer) – and the final season of his $6-million-a-year contract will be a constant topic.

ANGELS GM BILLY EPPLER (5 VOTES) – His cohorts in other front offices think Billy Eppler is really good at his job. But boy, is he in a tough spot. This team just fired its winningest manager ever, Mike Scioscia. It has to handle Shohei Ohtani with special care as he eases back from Tommy John Surgery. And have you noticed this team has somehow made it through five seasons of historic Mike Trout greatness without winning a single postseason game? Our voters seem to find this mix slightly combustible. Who knew!

SURVEY SAID … A shocking number of guys on other teams got multiple votes in the Under The Most Pressure balloting – including two NL East managers (Davey Martinez in Washington, Mickey Calloway in Mets-ville), Padres GM A.J. Preller, front offices in Seattle and Toronto, and pretty much all the front-office poohbahs in Miami. One voter on Derek Jeter’s Marlins: “Not sure what the plan is – other than hiring former Yankees.”

Is it Vladdy Time in Toronto?

Another fun question we asked our voters was which rookies they couldn’t wait to watch. Of the 30 ballots we got, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. showed up on 24 of them! So does that tell you there’s a little buzz about this dude?

We heard him described as “the next Miggy” (i.e., Miguel Cabrera), “the next Panda” (as in Pablo Sandoval), and “the next Manny” (as in Manny Ramírez, minus the baggage).

So that’s one question Guerrero can answer this spring. The other will be: Will the Blue Jays let him make the team – or will he be the latest phenom to spend a couple of weeks in the Kris Bryant Triple-A Service Time Penalty Box?

But Vladdy won’t be the only phenom our panelists will be dying to see this spring. Check out this stellar list of the five other mega-prospects who got a ton of votes:

Fernando Tatís Jr. (Padres): 12
Eloy Jiménez (White Sox): 11
Forrest Whitley (Astros): 9
Víctor Robles (Nationals): 7
Nick Senzel (Reds:) 6

SURVEY SAID … Have we ever lived in an era in which folks in this sport had a greater fascination with young players? An incredible 23 different rookies/prospects got votes in this category – including four additional players who got multiple votes: Yusei Kikuchi (Mariners), Brent Honeywell (Rays), Justus Sheffield (Mariners) and Bo Bichette (Blue Jays).

Who kidnapped the Marlins?

Here’s an excellent way to get your pals at the old canteen to buy you a free beverage: March up to them tonight, pull up a barstool and ask: “Name five Marlins!” Feel free to throw in Starlin Castro and Martín Prado. It’s still even money they can’t do it.

Now that J.T. Realmuto has moved on, not a single player remains who appeared in the Marlins’ box score from Opening Day 2017. The only position player left who even got as many as 150 plate appearances for that team two years ago is (who else?) noted household name J.T. Riddle, now the local shortstop.

So to no one’s shock, the Marlins were the winner of the Least Recognizable Team portion of this survey. But boy, was it dramatic. How about this vote leaderboard:

Marlins: 21
Orioles: 20
Mariners: 13
Tigers 11
Royals: 8

In a “normal” spring, any of those rosters could have won this derby. In fact, one voter from this group actually voted for his own team – and quipped: “Outside of [two non-anonymous players who we’d better not identify], I’d have trouble naming all our players myself!”

SURVEY SAID … What do you get in a category like this when a third of the teams in baseball are in active rebuilding mode? You get votes for a mind-boggling 13 teams in the Least Recognizable Team balloting. That’s what.

In other voting news …

THE FIVE MOST IMPORTANT INJURY COMEBACKS

Corey Seager: 18 votes
Yu Darvish: 12 votes
Dustin Pedroia: 5 votes
Josh Donaldson: 3 votes
Didi Gregorius: 3 votes

This category was so jam-packed with enticing options, straight out of the trainer’s room, that 31 different players got votes – not even including Francisco Lindor, whose calf issues weren’t revealed until after the voting. And three guys who rank right behind Seager for us – Chris Sale, Carlos Correa and Miguel Cabrera – only got one vote apiece!

THREE MOST UNLIKELY NONROSTER PLAYERS WHO WILL SHOW UP SOMEWHERE THIS SPRING

Tim Tebow (Mets): 9 votes*
Brett Lawrie (Brewers): 3 votes
Luke Hagerty (Cubs): 3 votes
(*-not counting the exec who voted for Tebow three times!)

You’d think it would be hard to find a more improbable spring invitee than a 31-year-old former Heisman Trophy winner – but it will actually be way more surprising if Lawrie and Hagerty show up in a real, live Cactus League box score this spring.

Lawrie’s last big-league appearance was so long ago (July 21, 2016) that 1,345 different players have made it to home plate in a major league game since then. But he’s still not a more unlikely owner of a minor-league spring-training deal than Hagerty – who is 37, got drafted the same year (2002) as Jeff Francoeur and Jeremy Hermida, and last threw a pitch in a professional game in 2008! As ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported, if Hagerty miraculously gets to the big leagues, he would be the oldest pitcher to make his major-league debut (without having pitched in another country) since … Satchel Paige!

THE FIVE MOST FASCINATING POSITION-SWITCH EXPERIMENTS

Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks), SS to CF: 6 votes
Nick Senzel (Reds), 3B/2B to CF: 2 votes
Jeff McNeill (Mets), 2B to CF: 2 votes
Michael Lorenzen (Reds), pitcher to two-way player: 2 votes

Our other favorite vote in this category, even though it has since become a likely moot subject: Kyler Murray – from quarterback to corner outfield!

Five more intriguing spring storylines

1) Where will Bryce and Manny sign?
2) Will MLB and the union agree to any of these rule changes?
3) Will this be The End for Ichiro after he plays for the Mariners in Japan?
4) Will the Rockies extend Nolan Arenado?
5) Do the Padres have another huge spring signing coming?

Happy Spring Training, everyone. Remember, it’s nature’s way of reminding us there is life after wind-chill factors.

 

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30 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Stark with another opus:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Stark: The 2019 spring training preview extravaganza

Jayson Stark 2h ago comment-icon@2x.png 15 save-icon@2x.png

Great news. We made it. We did it. We survived another baseball winter. And you know what that means. It means – woohoo – it’s that time again.

Time to forget about Stephen Gostkowski and focus on David Dombrowski. Time to stop stressing over the Mueller report and start stressing over the (Lance) McCullers (health) report. Time to tune out the Kominsky Method and tune into the Baldelli Method.

In other words, it’s time once again to start spinning those turnstiles at Salt River Fields and Joker Marchant Stadium. Time to program that GPS for Jupiter, for Goodyear, for Port St. Lucie, for all your favorite long-lost spring metropolii.

Yes, spring training is finally upon us. So to help us pinpoint the storylines we need to hone in on, we just finished polling 30 esteemed baseball managers, coaches, scouts and executives. What’s on their minds? Read on. We’ll let them tell you!

Will the marquee free agents ever sign?

It’s Feb. 14. And we’re not sure if anyone has mentioned this, but…there’s a 26-year-old former MVP (Bryce Harper), a 26-year-old perennial all-star (Manny Machado), a former Cy Young (Dallas Keuchel) and one of the greatest closers in history (Craig Kimbrel) who are still unemployed. This. Is. Insane.

“Wouldn’t it be weird,” asked one participant in our survey, “if LeBron James and Steph Curry were free agents and still unsigned going into NBA training camps?”

Hey, you think? In any other sport, this would be regarded as a scandal, possibly even a fiasco. So why, in baseball, do people so casually refer to it as “the new normal?” In reality, it’s a sign of monumental dysfunction that should have everyone on both sides scrambling to find a solution – and it feels like now would be a better time to find it than, say, 2022.

But this is the Spring Preview column, not the Labor Deal Preview column. So if you just look at the on-field impact, it’s mind-boggling to think of the big names who are about to drop out of the sky into multiple teams’ camps this spring – and change the way we look at practically everything.

SURVEY SAID … OK, digest this: When we asked our panelists to vote on the least improved teams in each league, you know how many teams got votes? How about 25! Hard to fathom that the only clubs to get a pass were the Yankees, Phillies, Mets, Nationals and White Sox. Unreal.

Has anything changed in the AL?

We’ve conducted this survey for many years. In all those years, we never once asked anyone to name their “Three Most Improved Teams” and thought that was some kind of brain-warping stumper. But then the American League, 2019 edition, came along.

Would you believe that nearly two-thirds of the voters who responded to this survey couldn’t even come up with a three-deep list of AL teams that got better over the winter? Would you believe there was one executive who actually refused to put any AL teams on his Most Improved list? Seriously. This has to be the weirdest offseason ever.

“It’s like watching Seinfeld,” joked one longtime exec the other day. “It’s an offseason about nothing.”

Of the 30 participants in this poll, 27 put the Yankees on their Most Improved list. After that, it went: Twins 10, Rays 10, Angels 4, White Sox 4. But is there a playoff team anywhere in that second tier? Have any of those teams passed the four super teams – Red Sox, Yankees, Astros, Indians – that have dominated this league over the last two years? It was hard to find anyone who would make that case.

“We already know four of the five playoff teams in that league right now,” said an NL executive. “So basically, the whole American League is going to play for the next 7 ½ months to determine the second wild card.”

SURVEY SAID … How confusing is the American League right now? Nine different AL teams got votes for most improved and least improved teams. And 13 of the 15 teams in the league got at least one vote on somebody’s least-improved list. Is that good?

Who’s the beast of the NL East?

Meanwhile, over in the National League, we’re heartened to report that the Most Improved balloting was way more action-packed. The leader board looked like this:

Mets: 24
Phillies: 22
Reds: 20
Nationals: 10
Cardinals: 10

The Braves also got votes, which means the baseball people we surveyed think four of the six most improved teams in the NL are jammed into the most fascinating division in baseball, the NL East. Those four clubs took on contracts totaling an incredible $436 million this winter, if you count what the Mets owe Robinson Canó. That makes this the only division in baseball in which four teams were actively going for it this winter.

But does this voting tell us that the Mets (after adding Canó, Edwin Díaz, Wilson Ramos, Jeurys Familia, Justin Wilson, Jed Lowrie, etc.) and Phillies (with J.T. Realmuto, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen, David Robertson and possibly a “Stupid Money” free agent) are now the two best teams in this division? Hmmm.

Are they really better than the Nationals (Patrick Corbin, Brian Dozier, Kurt Suzuki, Yan Gomes, Aníbal Sánchez, Kyle Barraclough, Trevor Rosenthal, Matt Adams) and Braves (Josh Donaldson, Brian McCann, Nick Markakis)? Hmmm.

“Boy, I don’t know,” said one NL exec. “This is definitely the toughest division to pick.”

SURVEY SAID… Amazingly, all but one vote in the Most Improved NL Team balloting went to teams from the NL East and Central. The only exception: The Dodgers, who got as many votes (one) in the Least Improved competition as they did in the Most Improved voting.

Who closes in Boston?

In this bullpen-centric age of ours, it feels as though it should be impossible to win a World Series without a dependable dominator at the back of your bullpen. But wait. Are we sure about that?

Did you know that in the last five World Series, the final out was collected by a pitcher who either didn’t start that season as his team’s closer or wasn’t a closer at all?

2018: Chris Sale
2017: Charlie Morton
2016: Mike Montgomery
2015: Wade Davis
2014: Madison Bumgarner

So does it matter as much as we think that the defending champs, the Red Sox, have waved farewell to Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly, who racked up 44 of their 46 regular-season saves last season – and seem totally content to just figure it out as they go along this spring? Well, we’re about to find out.

SURVEY SAID … The Red Sox got five votes as the Most Intriguing AL Team this spring. Three were because of that back-of-the-bullpen derby. The other two were centered around how tough it is to repeat – something the Red Sox last did in 1915 and 1916, when their winningest pitcher was some dude named Babe Ruth.

What should we make of the Cubs?

Is their Go Cubs Go beer mug half full or half empty? What exactly are we looking at here? Is this the greatest era of modern Cubs history? Or is this the most disappointing team of modern Cubs history?

It’s crazy that we’re asking these questions just 27 months after the Curse Busters Parade, of a team that has won more games over the last four seasons (387) than any franchise in this sport. But if you’ve paid attention to the words that have spun off Theo Epstein’s lips since last October, you’ll know exactly how he would answer them.

The Cubs president has spent the past four months dropping pearls like “disappointed” and “pissed off,” bemoaning his team’s lack of “killer instinct” and “sense of urgency,” and just this month describing the 95-win season of 2018 with these words: “Collective failure.” So…

That tells us, loud and clear, that this is the beginning of an important spring and pivotal season. For Joe Maddon, with the clock ticking on the final season of his deal. For a rock-star lineup that somehow hit just .235, with a .663 OPS, last September. For every darned one of the men in uniform, come to think of it. The Cubs made zero additions to their core of position players. So we’re about to learn how much this band wants to stay together beyond this year.

“Where are these guys?” asked one scout. “Are they still studs? Or is their window closing?”

SURVEY SAID…The Cubs had such a quiet offseason, they actually got the fourth-most votes (nine) in the Least Improved NL Teams balloting, behind the Marlins (18), Giants (16) and Diamondbacks (13). They got zero votes for Most Improved, incidentally.

Are the Cardinals going for the ‘gold’?

Here’s what people in St. Louis wanted the Cardinals to do this winter: Sign Bryce Harper.

Now here’s what the Cardinals actually did this winter: Trade for Paul Goldschmidt.

Guess what? They got the right guy. Let’s compare Goldy versus Bryce since 2013:

PLAYER WAR OPS+ SLG OBP HR
Goldschmidt 36.3 149 0.541 0.406 181
Harper 22.2 143 0.519 0.396 162

The only bad news: Goldschmidt is just a one-year rental who seems determined to test free agency. And so far, he’s shown no interest in one of those I just want to be happy discounts the Cardinals are so world famous at extracting. But one of our voters predicted, “He’ll be a Cardinal for life,” because it’s the safest bet of 2019 that St. Louis is about to shower love upon one of baseball’s most underrated stars. And that romance starts right there in Jupiter this spring.

“Goldschmidt is a superstar,” said one AL exec. “And in St Louis, he will be a much bigger deal then he was in Phoenix.”

SURVEY SAID … The Diamondbacks will be happy to know that at least our voters weren’t unanimous in saying the Cardinals got the better of that Goldschmidt trade.

Voters who liked the Cardinals’ half: 6
Voters who liked the Diamondbacks’ return*: 1
Voters who liked this trade for both teams: 1

(*-high-ceiling right-hander Luke Weaver, catching prospect Carson Kelly, infielder Andy Young and a competitive-balance round B pick)

Did any team make better trades than the Phillies?

For all the kudos our panelists bestowed on the Cardinals for the Goldschmidt deal, that was not the winner in our Best Trade of the Offseason balloting. In fact, it ranked third, behind two deals made by the same team – the Phillies:

J.T. Realmuto to Phillies: 14
Jean Segura to Phillies: 8
Goldschmidt to Cardinals: 7

*The widespread consensus on the Realmuto trade: The Phillies got “the best catcher in the game” and “a massive upgrade for them at the position on the field where there are no good players,” while the Marlins “didn’t get enough” for their last impact trade chip – in stud pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez, catcher Jorge Alfaro and left-hander Will Stewart.

*The reviews, from a rival NL exec, on the Phillies-Mariners deal that sent Segura, plus relievers Juan Nicasio and James Pazos, to Philly for Carlos Santana and shortstop J.P. Crawford: “A great trade for the Phillies. It helped them in so many ways. They got an upgrade at shortstop. They got a shortstop they didn’t like out of there. And it got Santana off of first base so they could get [Rhys] Hoskins back there. Just that one deal allowed them to upgrade at multiple positions.”

SURVEY SAID … Not surprisingly, the two other deals that got a bunch of votes in the best-trade voting involved the Mariners, a team that made eight significant trades this winter:

James Paxton to the Yankees: 6
Mariners move Cano’s money to Queens: 5

Are the Reds ready to contend?

The last time the Reds played a postseason game, Johnny Cueto was mysteriously unraveling in the 2013 Wild Card Game in Pittsburgh … Dusty Baker was about to move out of the manager’s office…and the Reds were about to make nearly a million fans a year disappear.

And so this winter – after losing 90-plus games four years in a row, for the first time in eight decades – the Reds decided it was time to do, well, something. But how much better are they this spring after adding Tanner Roark, Sonny Gray and Alex Wood to the rotation? How much more interesting are they after infusing Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp into their lineup? How ready are they to contend, for the first time in the post-Cueto/Dusty era?

Uh, first the good news: They got 20 votes in the Most Improved NL Team balloting. So that covers the they’re definitely better part.

The bad news: Roark, Puig, Kemp and Wood are all in their walk years. So even if everything goes euphorically, this group won’t be hanging together quite as long as the Big Red Machine.

“They should be good – for four months,” said one of our voters, “until they have to trade all their free agents at the deadline. So they’d better get off to a good start.”

There is actually a lot to like here. An astute new manager (David Bell). A new pitching coach (the highly regarded Derek Johnson, imported from Milwaukee). A new hitting coach (the equally highly regarded Turner Ward, imported from L.A.). And one of baseball’s most underrated lineups. Who knows where this is leading? But why do we have a feeling it will be tough to take our eyes off this team this spring?

SURVEY SAID … One red flag that arose in the voting: The Reds’ end of the Puig/Kemp/Wood deal got just two votes in the Best Trade balloting. But the Dodgers’ end – which was mostly an addition-by-subtraction-of-Puig/Kemp – also got two votes. Interesting!

Was Josh Donaldson the best free-agent signing of 2019?

The voting for Best Free-Agent Signing of the year was as surprising as it was confusing. The confusing part, we’ll get to shortly. The surprising part was that a guy who tied for first place in this voting was a fellow who played in just 52 games last year – and is coming off a season in which his OPS plummeted by 143 points.

That guy would be Josh Donaldson, fresh off a one-year, $23-million deal with the Braves, which he agreed to over Thanksgiving weekend, presumably while chomping on leftover mashed potatoes. We think there are two things we can learn from this, neither of which involves a mashed-potatoes recipe:

1) There’s nothing that modern baseball executives love more than one-year deals, even if they’re for more dollars than any previous one-year free-agent position-player deal in history.

2) There sure are a lot of people in baseball who think Josh Donaldson can still play if healthy. And they would be correct!

Did you know that, despite two straight years battling pesky calf injuries (attention: Francisco Lindor), Donaldson owns the highest OPS-Plus (138) of any active infielder in baseball who doesn’t play first base? Just Matt Carpenter (130) is even close. And the only seven active players at any position who rank ahead of him are Mike Trout, Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Paul Goldschmidt, Giancarlo Stanton and Bryce Harper.

So if he can make it through spring training without one or both of his calf muscles barking, Josh Donaldson has a chance to be one of 2019’s biggest difference-makers.

“This guy,” said one NL exec, “has the greatest risk/reward of the winter.”

SURVEY SAID…The voting leaders for best free-agent position-player signing had one common thread: None of them signed for more than two years!

Donaldson to the Braves: 11
Nelson Cruz to the Twins: 6
D.J. LeMahieu to the Yankees: 6
Yasmani Grandal to the Brewers: 6
Michael Brantley to the Astros: 6
Brian Dozier to the Nationals: 5

Who’s feeling the heat?

So you thought spring training was the most serene month and a half of the baseball year? Well, not for everybody.

One of the most fascinating questions we tossed out there was: “What team, manager or front office is feeling the most pressure this spring?” Here were the big three:

GABE KAPLER AND THE PHILLIES FRONT OFFICE (9 votes) – All the ingredients are in place. An ambitious owner (John Middleton) who will have big expectations after winning the winter. Six straight losing seasons. A messy collapse last August and September. A fan base that still isn’t sure what to make of the manager. New issues lurking from his time with the Dodgers. Stay tuned.

JOE MADDON (6 VOTES) – Allow us to translate a couple of key phrases for you. When front offices start expressing public concerns about their team’s lack of “urgency” or “killer instinct,” they expect their manager to fix that. So even for one of the best managers on the planet, the pressure cooker will be set on extra hot for Mr. Joseph J. Maddon this spring (and summer) – and the final season of his $6-million-a-year contract will be a constant topic.

ANGELS GM BILLY EPPLER (5 VOTES) – His cohorts in other front offices think Billy Eppler is really good at his job. But boy, is he in a tough spot. This team just fired its winningest manager ever, Mike Scioscia. It has to handle Shohei Ohtani with special care as he eases back from Tommy John Surgery. And have you noticed this team has somehow made it through five seasons of historic Mike Trout greatness without winning a single postseason game? Our voters seem to find this mix slightly combustible. Who knew!

SURVEY SAID … A shocking number of guys on other teams got multiple votes in the Under The Most Pressure balloting – including two NL East managers (Davey Martinez in Washington, Mickey Calloway in Mets-ville), Padres GM A.J. Preller, front offices in Seattle and Toronto, and pretty much all the front-office poohbahs in Miami. One voter on Derek Jeter’s Marlins: “Not sure what the plan is – other than hiring former Yankees.”

Is it Vladdy Time in Toronto?

Another fun question we asked our voters was which rookies they couldn’t wait to watch. Of the 30 ballots we got, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. showed up on 24 of them! So does that tell you there’s a little buzz about this dude?

We heard him described as “the next Miggy” (i.e., Miguel Cabrera), “the next Panda” (as in Pablo Sandoval), and “the next Manny” (as in Manny Ramírez, minus the baggage).

So that’s one question Guerrero can answer this spring. The other will be: Will the Blue Jays let him make the team – or will he be the latest phenom to spend a couple of weeks in the Kris Bryant Triple-A Service Time Penalty Box?

But Vladdy won’t be the only phenom our panelists will be dying to see this spring. Check out this stellar list of the five other mega-prospects who got a ton of votes:

Fernando Tatís Jr. (Padres): 12
Eloy Jiménez (White Sox): 11
Forrest Whitley (Astros): 9
Víctor Robles (Nationals): 7
Nick Senzel (Reds:) 6

SURVEY SAID … Have we ever lived in an era in which folks in this sport had a greater fascination with young players? An incredible 23 different rookies/prospects got votes in this category – including four additional players who got multiple votes: Yusei Kikuchi (Mariners), Brent Honeywell (Rays), Justus Sheffield (Mariners) and Bo Bichette (Blue Jays).

Who kidnapped the Marlins?

Here’s an excellent way to get your pals at the old canteen to buy you a free beverage: March up to them tonight, pull up a barstool and ask: “Name five Marlins!” Feel free to throw in Starlin Castro and Martín Prado. It’s still even money they can’t do it.

Now that J.T. Realmuto has moved on, not a single player remains who appeared in the Marlins’ box score from Opening Day 2017. The only position player left who even got as many as 150 plate appearances for that team two years ago is (who else?) noted household name J.T. Riddle, now the local shortstop.

So to no one’s shock, the Marlins were the winner of the Least Recognizable Team portion of this survey. But boy, was it dramatic. How about this vote leaderboard:

Marlins: 21
Orioles: 20
Mariners: 13
Tigers 11
Royals: 8

In a “normal” spring, any of those rosters could have won this derby. In fact, one voter from this group actually voted for his own team – and quipped: “Outside of [two non-anonymous players who we’d better not identify], I’d have trouble naming all our players myself!”

SURVEY SAID … What do you get in a category like this when a third of the teams in baseball are in active rebuilding mode? You get votes for a mind-boggling 13 teams in the Least Recognizable Team balloting. That’s what.

In other voting news …

THE FIVE MOST IMPORTANT INJURY COMEBACKS

Corey Seager: 18 votes
Yu Darvish: 12 votes
Dustin Pedroia: 5 votes
Josh Donaldson: 3 votes
Didi Gregorius: 3 votes

This category was so jam-packed with enticing options, straight out of the trainer’s room, that 31 different players got votes – not even including Francisco Lindor, whose calf issues weren’t revealed until after the voting. And three guys who rank right behind Seager for us – Chris Sale, Carlos Correa and Miguel Cabrera – only got one vote apiece!

THREE MOST UNLIKELY NONROSTER PLAYERS WHO WILL SHOW UP SOMEWHERE THIS SPRING

Tim Tebow (Mets): 9 votes*
Brett Lawrie (Brewers): 3 votes
Luke Hagerty (Cubs): 3 votes
(*-not counting the exec who voted for Tebow three times!)

You’d think it would be hard to find a more improbable spring invitee than a 31-year-old former Heisman Trophy winner – but it will actually be way more surprising if Lawrie and Hagerty show up in a real, live Cactus League box score this spring.

Lawrie’s last big-league appearance was so long ago (July 21, 2016) that 1,345 different players have made it to home plate in a major league game since then. But he’s still not a more unlikely owner of a minor-league spring-training deal than Hagerty – who is 37, got drafted the same year (2002) as Jeff Francoeur and Jeremy Hermida, and last threw a pitch in a professional game in 2008! As ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported, if Hagerty miraculously gets to the big leagues, he would be the oldest pitcher to make his major-league debut (without having pitched in another country) since … Satchel Paige!

THE FIVE MOST FASCINATING POSITION-SWITCH EXPERIMENTS

Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks), SS to CF: 6 votes
Nick Senzel (Reds), 3B/2B to CF: 2 votes
Jeff McNeill (Mets), 2B to CF: 2 votes
Michael Lorenzen (Reds), pitcher to two-way player: 2 votes

Our other favorite vote in this category, even though it has since become a likely moot subject: Kyler Murray – from quarterback to corner outfield!

Five more intriguing spring storylines

1) Where will Bryce and Manny sign?
2) Will MLB and the union agree to any of these rule changes?
3) Will this be The End for Ichiro after he plays for the Mariners in Japan?
4) Will the Rockies extend Nolan Arenado?
5) Do the Padres have another huge spring signing coming?

Happy Spring Training, everyone. Remember, it’s nature’s way of reminding us there is life after wind-chill factors.

 

The problem with the stupidity of comparing the NBA and the MLB is that Lebron and Curry know what the parameters are for their contacts. They get a certain percentage of the cap for a maximum of 5 years. If baseball operated under the same rules, it's likely Harper, Machado, Keuchel, and Kimbrel would already be signed. Of course the baseball player's union would never agree to 5 year max contracts, even though it would benefit the whole union more so than the top 1% of the players that are actually worth longer term deals.

Very few franchises are going to give out a 10 year deals anymore. Boras seems to be the last person to realize this.

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shnsajax

shnsajax 3592

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1 hour ago, TheFlagship said:

Bryant and Rizzo should def be better, but I think Schwarber and Contreras are who they are. Can you count on Baez repeating his MVP caliber season?

Correct me if I’m wrong, but the problem for the Cubs is they are relying on old pitchers not dropping off precipitously (Lester and Hamels) and guys coming off injury or down years (Darvish and Q). Their bullpen should be good. 

Contreras first 2 years in the bigs he was basically .280/.360/.490/.850 with a hr every 21.5 ab's. Last year he was .249/.349/.390 with a hr every 47.4 ab's. The hitters really hated Chili Davis and got him fired. Schwarber's walk rate increasing gives me hope, but yeah you could be right. 

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Bartles

Bartles 769

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Posted

Is Stark suggesting there's some secret collusion cabal that OK's certain players to be bid out one at a time? Sorry, but the media - even the good national writers - aren't doing a great job explaining what's so wrong about this offseason. Leave aside Harper and Machado, those are rare cases and they'll get great contracts either way. Is there some team(s) that desperately need Kimbrel, Keuchel, etc but aren't talking to them?

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54444

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37 minutes ago, Bartles said:

Is Stark suggesting there's some secret collusion cabal that OK's certain players to be bid out one at a time? Sorry, but the media - even the good national writers - aren't doing a great job explaining what's so wrong about this offseason. 

I don't know what he's actually suggesting, but it doesn't take a Norman Einstein to understand that truly free markets don't have guys getting no offers for months and then suddenly get flooded with offers, and they don't have guys getting identical offers from multiple teams, and yeah, this is happening to all of the free agents -- I posted about it in this thread last month.  And you have one group that has already been caught redhanded doing the exact same thing, so I don't know why anyone would give them the benefit of the doubt now.  

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Bartles

Bartles 769

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I hope the players are compiling evidence then, because if it's that widespread they will win in court again. But so many teams are tanking and/or using analytics as a crutch to avoid signing veterans for more money, I think the market for guys like Moustakas (must less Reynolds) just isn't very strong regardless of collusion. We'll see how it ends up when we get close to opening day...no doubt the big fish are clogging up at least a few other pieces that will fall into place quickly when even one of Bryce/Manny gets done.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54444

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46 minutes ago, Bartles said:

I hope the players are compiling evidence then, because if it's that widespread they will win in court again. 

I don't think there is any hard evidence to compile.  They won the last case because the owners were actually stupid enough to leave a huge paper trail.  They surely can't be that stupid again...

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19227

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Posted

I didn't see anything posted about Severino signing an extension late last week so SIAP...  4 years / $40MM with club option for a 5th year at an additional $12.25MM.  If Severino's 2nd half woes were an aberration, this seems cheap.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/luis-severino-signed-the-latest-contract-extension/

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54444

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Ugh.

Quote

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. • Within the first few days of exhibition games this spring, Major League Baseball is going to put a clock on its pitchers.

Whether there is a timer on labor peace remains uncertain.

Commissioner Rob Manfred, during a pointed and sometimes feisty news conference Sunday before an annual governor’s dinner held in Florida, revealed that baseball will begin introducing a 20-second pitch clock as soon as this coming weekend, when spring training games open. Manfred said the leagues need to begin using the technology now so players, umpires, and managers are comfortable with the clock should it be approved as a new rule before the start of the regular season. The commissioner’s office can impose a pitch clock on the game, by rule, but has been negotiating with the players’ union to incorporate other changes to improve pace of play.

 

A designated hitter will not be introduced in 2019 to the National League, Manfred asserted, but the union could agree to a three-batter minimum for relievers that would be immediately wedged into the game.

The clock “will be a soft phase-in to get people used to it,” Manfred said. “We’re still hopeful that we’re going to make an agreement with (the union) on pace of play this year. I just think whether it’s by agreement or otherwise, the only prudent course for us is to be in position to proceed if in fact we have an agreement.”

Manfred’s pitch-count pronouncement and possible unilateral addition of it to the game come with a backdrop of increasing labor concerns, especially on the players’ side. Two of the best players ever to reach free agency at the young age of 26 remain unsigned after camps have opened, and Manfred himself pointed out that 11 players with at least a 1.0 Wins Above Replacement remained unsigned at the start of his news conference. Players are agitated, and some have talked about the system being broken.

In a radio interview, Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright warned of an impending strike and that he was worried players would walk out midseason. He aimed to clarify his comments in a series of tweets Saturday night but still captured the players’ frustrations.

Manfred pushed back on strike talk — years before the current labor deal expires.

“It reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of how you conduct good labor relations to have people running around three years before an agreement expires before there has been one word of negotiation — arguing that that there is going to be a strike,” Manfred said. “I actually have a degree in labor relations. We never learned that tactic. It is not productive in terms of our business. I don’t think it’s good for our fans. I don’t think it’s good for our players. And I know it’s not going to change the outcome of negotiations, ultimately.”

Manfred figured several reasons for the chill that has now gripped the past two offseasons and suggested it’s an “impediment” to negotiations when a player, several years ahead of free agency, is being billed as the game’s first $400 million player.

“That market is going to clear (before) real games,” he said.

What rules govern those games is still unsure. The 20-second clock will require the pitcher to deliver his pitch before that time lapses or a ball will be called. An umpire can also call a strike on a batter who dawdles. The precise mechanics and language of the rule will be introduced through spring training before the official rule is finalized, if it is, by opening day. Manfred has led the conversation on changes to the game’s pace and improving the game’s action, and that has contributed to this overall cloud of questions surrounding the game.

He began his news conference by listing all of the events he’s anticipating this season — like baseball’s first visit to London — and yet as spring training starts, this annual time of optimism has a darker hue because of unsigned free agents, rule changes and labor friction.

“I hate the negativity that surrounds the coverage of the game right now,” Manfred said. “I think probably the best antidote for that is to get out and start playing the game because the game is always a positive for us. It is that gap during the offseason when … the negativity seems to grow. Maybe we are going to make some little changes to make it even better. And I do think once we do get out there and start playing. the positive glow around the game will reemerge.”

 

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Bartles

Bartles 769

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Interesting. I would not have expected SEA to be on the left side of the chart, nor SD on the right side (even barely). Obviously lots of factors besides the specific acreage influence hitting/pitching splits. I always felt Arlington had perfect dimensions but the heat/jetstream make it a launching pad much of the time.

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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Fucking 4chan poster who can throw mid-90s.  

He’s the ultimate self-made star: an average (if that) athlete who leveraged a sharp baseball intellect and obsession with data into a Cy Young candidacy. He knows a whole lot more than the rest of us. So why does he act like he wants us to despise him?

lol fuck off Reiter this guy was drafted third overall.

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spystud13

spystud13 2371

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Olney just yesterday. 

Quote

If Manny Machado signs a deal for something in the $250 million range with the Padres, you would completely get it from his perspective. The market for him hasn't been as robust as once expected, but even when you factor in California taxes and any deferrals, that is a life-changing amount of money for any person.

Whether he signs with the Padres or the White Sox, or perhaps pivots to the Phillies, Machado will do just fine in free agency, it appears, after a long winter's wait. Good for him.

But once again, the pertinent question is: What in the world are the Padres thinking?

It's the same question asked when they went all-in in the winter of 2014-15 and then managed to win fewer games in the season that followed. It's the same puzzle as last winter, when they spent more on a free agent than any other team to land first baseman Eric Hosmer for $144 million, and then went 65-97.

Machado is a really good player, and he'll make them better with his excellent defense and his power. From the perspective of the players' association, this will be a good indication that a team that tanked and slashed its payroll to the bone would have three pricey players on its roster, in Machado, Hosmer and Wil Myers (who is set to make $22.5 million annually from 2020 to 2022, per the terms of his very backloaded contract).

But as was the case last winter with Hosmer, the timing of a Machado signing seems strange because San Diego, while teeming with prospects, does not seem close to contending. The Padres finished in last place in the NL West, 25½ games behind the Dodgers, and while they have a lot of promising prospects graduating from their teenage years, they really haven't done much to augment a pitching staff that ranked 13th of 15 in staff ERA (4.40). Their starting pitchers had the worst ERA, at 5.09.

For now, their rotation looks like this, according to the team's website:

Joey Lucchesi, 25 years old; 4.08 ERA in 2018
Eric Lauer, 23 years old; 4.34 ERA
Robbie Erlin, 28; 4.21
Jacob Nix, 23; 7.02 in nine starts
Bryan Mitchell, 27; 5.42

Soon enough, the promising MacKenzie Gore, who turns 20 this week, will ascend to the big leagues, but he'll start this year in Class A.

It's still possible for Padres ownership to address that area this winter because of how slowly the free-agent market has played out. San Diego could still sign Dallas Keuchel to be an anchor at the front of the rotation, or Gio Gonzalez -- or heck, if they're willing to invest that kind of money in Machado, they could sign both Keuchel and Gonzalez, at the cost of perhaps $30 million annually.

Unless the Padres inject that kind of capital into their rotation, it appears Machado would be destined to be in the same kind of situation as Alex Rodriguez after Rodriguez signed his 10-year, $252 million contract with the Texas Rangers. Rodriguez did everything possible to make good on the Rangers' investment in him -- in three seasons, he batted .305, clubbed 156 homers, won one MVP award and finished second and sixth in the voting in the other two years. He was awesome.

And yet it changed nothing for the Rangers, because they failed to install a group around him that was good enough to win -- and in particular, they didn't have close to enough pitching. That's exactly where the Padres appear to be.

With the signing of Hosmer and this strong flirtation with Machado, Padres ownership is again signaling a desire to goose the long, slow rebuilding process that began with the teardown of the 2015 team. San Diego has a great farm system, for sure, with highly rated prospects like Fernando Tatis Jr., but as the Phillies and White Sox have learned in recent years, it can take time for that talent to translate to the big league level. The path didn't turn out to be as seamless as expected for Maikel Franco and J.P. Crawford and Yoan Moncada. Stuff happens.

Building a pitching staff to run down the Dodgers might take another couple of years, and yes, adding a premium defender like Machado will help the pitching. But by the time the Padres are really ready to turn the corner, Machado might be a couple of years into his deal, and Hosmer could be 31 or 32.

Once the Padres took the path of a complete teardown and began adding a lot of teenage prospects, the ownership had to be wholly committed -- and still needs to be committed -- to a patient wait for those players to develop. Like kids waiting through the early days of December for Christmas morning.

Eight years have passed since the last time the Padres had a winning record, and it's been 13 seasons since San Diego last reached the postseason. Maybe ownership is just flat-out sick of waiting. It's the Padres' money, it's the Padres' prerogative.

But signing Machado would feel a whole lot like ripping open Christmas packages on Dec. 16 without any family around. The timing just isn't right, the moment isn't right, and it would seem destined to fall flat.

 

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