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2018-2019 MLB Offseason Thread

Beau Vine

By Beau Vine
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MAROON
MAROON

best comment i read so far about the contract length.   "There are Phillies fans not yet born that will be throwing batteries at him in the later years of this contract".

Beau Vine
Beau Vine

From Levi Weaver's column in The Athletic:  

Beau Vine
Beau Vine

Gammons rambles way too much and it's like his editors are afraid to touch his work, but I like him because he loves baseball.  Not just MLB.  Gammons loves BASEBALL. And he hit this one out of t

Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54453

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I often wonder if the people bitching about DRS and other "new age baseball metrics" actually understand that the basis for these numbers is someone actually watching every single play of every single game (you know, like fielding percentage) AND THEN scoring each play compared to what other players at that position have done...

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After winning the Home Run Derby, Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper got his hitting back on track in the second half of the season. Since the All-Star Break, he’s hitting .304 with a 1.004 OPS in 55 games. With Harper hitting free agency for the first time this winter, this was significant, as he showed again that he could dominate from that side of the field.

But the defensive side continues to be an issue for Harper, as it has been all season. He’s never recovered from his early-season struggles.

Harper has cost his team 25 runs with his defense this season. He ranks tied for second-worst among all players in Defensive Runs Saved. He has fared poorly both in right field (-16 DRS) and center field (-9).

Range rating gone south
Harper is 16 runs to the negative in his range and positioning rating, meaning quite simply that he’s not recording outs on balls that most right fielders or center fielders turn into outs.

As a right fielder, he ranked third-worst in runs saved specific to both balls hit into the right center gap and along the right field line. As a center fielder, he rates well below average on balls hit into both the left and right center field gap. Some of that is due to positioning, but there’s definitely something to the idea that Harper doesn’t have the range he used to have from watching video.

Negative value from his arm
This will also be the first season in Harper’s career in which the deterrent value of his throwing arm rates poorly. He’s cost his team six runs with his throwing, partly due to his recording only one assist without a cutoff man (last season he had seven).

Two seasons ago, 35 percent of baserunners advanced an extra base on hits to right field that were handled by Harper. That number increased to 45 percent in 2017 and 54 percent this season (MLB average is 50 percent). In center field, 21-of-31 (68 percent) advanced on Harper, 13 percentage points higher than MLB average.

Good Plays and Misplays
Lastly, Harper’s Good Fielding Play and Defensive Misplay numbers are way out of line with his historical norms. Harper has six Good Fielding Plays (GFPs) and 31 Defensive Misplays & Errors (DM&E).

There is precedent for Harper having such a high misplay total, but the six GFPs pale in comparison to just two seasons ago when he had 24 in a comparable number of innings (he had 12 last season.

Harper’s ledger includes six of what SIS calls “wasted throws” that allowed a runner to advance a base, four instances of mishandling a ball after a hit, again allowing runners to advance, and three bad routes, in which he took a poor path to the ball, allowing a ball to drop for a hit. An example of a recent miscue would be slipping and falling on the warning track in a game against the Braves last week, allowing a Ronald Acuna Jr. hit to become a triple instead of a double.

Harper did make a home run robbing catch against Andrew Susac of the Orioles in late May, but such plays have been few this season.

 

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54453

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If this is true, we will have a strike/lockout when the CBA expires at the end of the 2021 season, if not earlier:
 

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The Dodgers plan to keep their player payroll below the level that would require a luxury tax payment for at least the next four years, according to a document prepared for potential investors and reviewed by The Los Angeles Times.

By cutting payroll this year to the point where they were not assessed a tax, the Dodgers reduced their tax rate for future years. However, if they do not wish to pay the tax at all, the Dodgers could be hard-pressed to sign top free agents this winter, including coveted outfielder Bryce Harper.

The Dodgers spent $195 million in player payroll this year, when they advanced to the World Series for the second consecutive season and won the National League West for the sixth time in the six full seasons under the ownership of Guggenheim Baseball Management.

Under the projections prepared for potential investors, the Dodgers would spend $185 million in 2019 and 2020, $191 million in 2021 and $196 million in 2022.

 

The Dodgers’ payroll projections are not binding. One high-ranking team official called the figures a “forecast,” and another said he would be “shocked” if the player payroll did not top $200 million next season.

 

 

 
 
 

The luxury tax would be assessed on any team that spends $206 million in 2019, $208 million in 2020, and $210 million in 2021. The 2022 threshold has not been set.

 

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54453

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14 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

everything i read is about how "[insert big market team] isn't interested in [insert big free agent]". 

This basically sounds like an investor prospectus claiming this, though.  

That's quite a bit different than leaking a statement to a friendly member of the media.  

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6321

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From ESPN's report on GM meetings:

New Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen caused a stir not just by landing his job, but by intimating Tim Tebow could see the major leagues next season. He'll be in big league camp and is slated to start the season at Triple-A.

"His season was cut short last year due to the injury, and he had this great momentum," said Van Wagenen, Tebow's former agent. "For Timmy, if you tell him he can't do something, he surprises a lot of people. If he picks up where he left off last year, you never know. This game is a meritocracy. It's pretty remarkable."

JFC, the irony. He's talking about a 31-year old who struck out 35% of the time in AA.  

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54453

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I've been reading Bill James for 30 years.

Bill James says a lot of kooky stuff.  That's pretty much how he developed his following.  He'd come up with a kooky hypothesis, then he'd hand-collect the data from newspaper box scores, analyze it, and then report it in the Abstract.  He'd report it whether it confirmed whether he right or wrong.

He was/is wrong a lot.  But a lot of the kooky stuff he has hypothesized over the years has turned out to be correct, stuff that you'd think there was no way it was true.

He's used to being wrong, which is good, because he's wrong in this case.

(The main thing I think he's wrong about is his definition of "replaceable."  You're not replaceable if it takes "three years" for everything to return to its previous state, which is what he's claiming.  If you replace a beer vendor, the next guy will sell just as many beers immediately -- that's what "replaceable" means.)

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54453

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More proof that JD FKN MARTENIES IS THE MOST Badd asss player everz.

 

Silver Slugger winners:

AL

  • Catcher: Salvador Perez, Royals
  • First base: Jose Abreu, White Sox
  • Second base: Jose Altuve, Astros
  • Shortstop: Francisco Lindor, Indians
  • Third base: Jose Ramirez, Indians
  • Outfield: Mookie Betts, Red Sox; J.D. Martinez, Red Sox; Mike Trout, Angels;
  • Designated hitter: J.D. Martinez, Red Sox

NL

  • Catcher: J.T. Realmuto, Marlins
  • First base: Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks
  • Second base: Javier Baez, Cubs
  • Shortstop: Trevor Story, Rockies
  • Third base: Nolan Arenado, Rockies
  • Outfield: Nick Markakis, Braves; David Peralta, Diamondbacks; Christian Yelich, Brewers
  • Pitcher: German Marquez, Rockies

 

 

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Brew

Brew 3049

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From the SI story:

The Nationals would have received right-hander J.B. Bukauskas, the Astros’ No. 8 prospect according to MLB.com, and two other minor leaguers, in exchange for Harper. Catcher Garrett Stubbs, the team’s No. 15 prospect, was also reportedly in play, along with another, low-level, minor-league pitcher as well, per Rosenthal.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/11/10/bryce-harper-free-agency-nationals-astros-trade

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Beau Vine

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Spoiler

The Astros had a trade in place for Harper on July 30, but the deal collapsed when Washington Nationals ownership refused to approve the move, according to major-league sources.

Without Harper, the Astros still finished 103-59, won their second straight AL West title and swept the Cleveland Indians in the Division Series. But in the American League Championship Series, the eventual World Series champion Boston Red Sox defeated the Astros in only five games.

For Harper, the Nationals would have obtained right-hander J.B. Bukauskas, the Astros’ No. 8 prospect according to MLBPipeline.com, and two other minor leaguers, sources said. Catcher Garrett Stubbs, the team’s No. 15 prospect, was in play, and the Nationals would have received another, low-level, minor-league pitcher as well.

The package was far better than the compensatory pick the Nationals will receive after the fourth round of the 2019 draft if Harper turns down their qualifying offer on Monday, as expected, and eventually signs with another club.

The Nationals will qualify for the lowest form of draft-pick compensation after joining the Red Sox as one of only two teams to exceed the $197 million luxury-tax threshold during the  2018 season. While the Sox won the World Series, the Nats finished 82-80, eight games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East.

Nats ownership long has been fond of Harper, whom the team selected with the No. 1 pick of the 2010 draft, and might have feared that trading him would harm their relationship with the player and reduce their chances of signing him.

As it turned out, those chances might be diminishing, anyway. Harper, 26, rejected a 10-year, $300 million offer from the Nats on the final day of the regular season, according to the Washington Post, opting to enter the free-agent market instead.

Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo did not respond to a request for comment. Astros GM Jeff Luhnow declined comment.

Harper would have given the Astros an additional left-handed bat in their lineup, helping compensate for the struggles of right fielder Josh Reddick, who produced only a .690 OPS after the All-Star Game, and the loss of catcher Brian McCann, who was out from July 3 to Sept. 1 following right knee surgery.

After learning they could not land Harper, the Astros put together another trade that would have sent right-hander Francis Martes to the Chicago White Sox for outfielder Avisaíl García, sources said. That deal failed to come to fruition when the Astros expressed concern over the condition of García’s right knee.

García, a right-handed hitter, would play the rest of the season, but batted only .197 with a .631 OPS in the final two months and underwent arthroscopic surgery on his knee on Oct. 2. Martes had Tommy John surgery on Aug. 15, but the White Sox were aware of his condition at the time the deal was discussed, sources said.

The Astros, according to sources, also pursued another right-handed hitter in the days before the non-waiver deadline, believed to be St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Tommy Pham. But that trade, if it indeed was discussed, also failed to materialize, with Pham going to the Tampa Bay Rays instead.

On July 30, the day the Nationals and Astros struck their preliminary agreement on Harper, the Nats were 52-53, 5 1/2 games back in the NL East. The Nats’ front office, frustrated by the club’s performance, had informed teams that Harper and other veterans were available. But at 10:30 a.m. on July 31, less than six hours before the non-waiver deadline, Rizzo sent the Washington Post a text saying, “Bryce is not going anywhere. I believe in this team.”

A trade of right-handed reliever Brandon Kintzler to the Cubs was the Nats’ only move that day. The team initially rallied, winning six of seven games. But it then dropped nine of 13, prompting a flurry of deals — second baseman Daniel Murphy to the Chicago Cubs and first baseman Matt Adams to the St. Louis Cardinals on Aug. 21, then left-hander Gio Gonzalez to the Milwaukee Brewers and righty reliever Ryan Madson to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Aug. 31.

The Nats had a second opportunity to move Harper when the Dodgers claimed him on waivers in August, but turned down an offer of outfielder Yasiel Puig, according to the Los Angeles Times.

Bukauskas, the pitcher the Nats would have acquired from the Astros, was the 15th overall pick of the 2017 draft, but missed most of the first three months of last season due to a slipped disc in his thoracic spine. He pitched at five levels after returning, peaking at Double A and producing a 2.14 ERA in 59 innings.

Stubbs, the Astros’ minor-league catcher who was discussed, was an eighth-round pick in 2015 who batted .310 with an .836 OPS in 84 games at Triple A last season.

 

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spystud13

spystud13 2371

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This signing never made sense. 

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According to MLB Network insider Ken Rosenthal in an article for The Athletic(subscription required), a rival executive said the Phillies are "shopping the hell" out of first baseman Carlos Santana, who signed a three-year, $60 million contract with Philadelphia last offseason.

Per Rosenthal, the Phillies want to move Rhys Hoskins back to first base. While that makes strategic sense from a defensive standpoint -- Hoskins recorded -19 Outs Above Average, per Statcast™, and -24 Defensive Runs Saved in left field this past season -- Philadelphia may also be trying to clear space on the payroll and in the outfield for free agent Bryce Harper.

Santana's deal included a $10 million signing bonus, leaving him with a base salary of roughly $35 million over 2019-20, and he has a $500,000 buyout on his $17.5 million club option for '21. The Phillies will likely need to send some cash to move the 32-year-old, who hit .229/.352/.414 with 24 homers and 86 RBIs over 161 games in the first year of his contract.

Philadelphia has been consistently connected to Harper this offseason and could conceivably afford to sign him without moving Santana, but doing so would likely mean putting promising right fielder Nick Williams on the bench or giving Santana more playing time at third at the expense of Maikel Franco.

 

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Beau Vine

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More on the Mariner thing:

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She later specified some of those allegations to The (Tacoma) News Tribune, claiming, among other things, that Dipoto referred to her as a “cocky Latina,” that McKay called Dominican players “just plain stupid” and that Servais said Latinos “aren’t bright enough” to be major-league catchers or managers. She also accused Dipoto of repeatedly punching a white board during an argument “to intimidate me.”

The Mariners denied the above allegations in a response issued late Monday night, calling them “false and ludicrous” and accusing Martin of fabricating stories.

“We are still trying to sort through all the statements that are being made publicly by Ms. Martin and we will continue to defend ourselves against false accusations,” it read.

Martin, who had two years remaining on her contract, was relieved of her duties on Oct. 10. The team made no announcement of that decision, which came less than a year after she was hired to much internal fanfare on Oct. 30, 2017, and given the massive responsibility of overseeing the organization’s medical, strength and conditioning, nutrition and mental skills departments. A Mariners release described Martin’s expertise as “integrating physiology, psychology, sports science, and statistical analysis to help assist athletes as well as other staff members with their pursuit of maximum performance.”

The job was an enormous undertaking, but one Dipoto seemed to think was tailor-made for Martin, who had previously served as the Los Angeles Lakers’ director of sports performance analytics.

“We have spent nearly a year working on creating this position and structure, as well as identifying the best person for this role,” Dipoto said on the day Martin was hired. “Lorena’s background, skill set and previous experience make her a perfect match for what we envisioned.”

“Major League Baseball has lagged behind many professional sports leagues, including the NBA, Premier Soccer and others, in using big data to assist in both injury prevention and peak performance. We are excited to better connect all of the services we currently provide to our players throughout the organization and add the information that Dr. Martin can reveal to better assist the team in staying healthy and, ultimately, winning more games.”

While the Mariners seemed to initially consider Martin’s addition a coup, multiple Lakers sources indicated some within the organization were relieved she found a position elsewhere despite having hired her barely a year earlier. Martin’s role was reduced in scope, and Lakers sources described her as difficult to work with, unable to accept criticism and eager to deflect blame.

There were issues from the very beginning of Martin’s tenure in Seattle.

Mariners sources told The Athletic that some players weren’t comfortable around Martin in the team’s clubhouse – it should be noted that MLB clubhouses are not among the most open-minded of settings – and others were reticent to accept her input. Those complaints echo themes from Lakers sources, as well.

But another source indicated that they shared at least part of Martin’s critique of Dipoto’s leadership.

In response to Martin’s original tweets Monday, the Mariners released a statement that said that “while it is our policy to not comment on personnel issues, we do feel it is important to respond to the outrageous, false claims made by her today on social media. And to note that Martin did not make any of these false allegations until after she was relieved of her duties.

“The Mariners categorically deny that any member of our management or coaching staff made racist remarks regarding any of our players or staff. Additionally, we have not terminated (or threatened to terminate) any trainers during the offseason.”

In a tweet, Martin later refuted the team’s assertion that she didn’t notify human resources of her complaints.

“There was a breach of contract on the Mariners behalf, and I had reported many other discriminatory incidences to HR and others Mariners staff members throughout the season. And yes, Leonardo Santiago and Jose Valdez, DR trainers, were let go and not given new contracts.”

Late Monday, Martin told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal that she possessed emails proving the Mariners breached her contract and that she knew Mariners staff willing to speak on her behalf. She has yet to produce those emails and/or staffers.

 

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