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Poll: Predict the Texas Longhorns 2018-19 regular season win total

Machinator

By Machinator
in Basketball

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Predict the Texas Longhorns 2018-19 regular season win total  

59 members have voted

  1. 1. How many games will Texas win in the regular season?

    • <18
      20
    • 18 or 19
      6
    • 20 or 21
      23
    • 22 or 23
      8
    • 24 or 25
      1
    • >25
      1

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Machinator

Machinator 32,099

Posted
Posted

Schedule is here: https://texassports.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=393

There are five days remaining until tip-off against Eastern Illinois, which means the season is nearly upon us. Although there are no high-end talents (one-and-dones) on this roster, this may be closer to the team Shaka Smart actually has a chance of succeeding with: athletic, multiple playmaking guards, and a decent amount of experience. Shooting and rim protection remain question marks, as does the overarching team offensive philosophy.

What are your minimum expectations for a successful season, and what do you predict will happen?

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  • Machinator changed the title to Poll: Predict the Texas Longhorns 2018-19 regular season win total
Goo Punch

Goo Punch 4,275

Posted
Posted

we should really be entering conference play with only one or two losses, and we could conceivably be ranked at that point. hopefully that momentum will carry into january because that month is an absolute gauntlet. if we can have success in january then we should definitely be competing for second in the conference. ku is going to be stupid good, but if we can play well through january then we should be in the mix for who's next. 

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Goo Punch

Goo Punch 4,275

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Posted
29 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I'm very pessimistic. I haven't studied the team too closely. My vote was based purely on the perplexing weak performance of Shaka teams so far, and some rumors I've heard about Shaka's inability to coach well to date.

Matt Coleman needs to be really good, and we need to be able to shoot. If those two things don't happen it will 100% be more of the same. 

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texasstrong12

texasstrong12 4,668

Posted
Posted (edited)

Under the assumption we don't have any injuries this year: 

Eastern Illinois (W), Arkansas (W), ULM (W), Citadel (W), UNC (L), Michigan State or UCLA (W), Radford (W), VCU (W), Purdue (W), Grand Canyon (W), Providence (W), UTA (W), @ K-State (L), WV (W), @ OK State (W), Tech (W), @ Kansas (L), OU (W), @ TCU (L), @ Georgia (W), Kansas (L), @ Iowa State (L), Baylor (W), @ WV (L), K-State (W), OK State (W), @ Baylor (W), Iowa State (W), @ Tech (W), TCU (W).

 

 

Edited by texasstrong12
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Bitterwhiteguy

Bitterwhiteguy 153

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Posted
12 hours ago, Horny Bull said:

I agree with the overall record, but we are not sweeping Baylor or getting swept by Texas Tech.

Baylor is likely going to be worse than you think this year. They lost a ton to graduation and their best player this year (Lindsey) is out for the season with a hip problem. They could pretty easily finish last in the conference.

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texasstrong12

texasstrong12 4,668

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4 minutes ago, Bitterwhiteguy said:

Baylor is likely going to be worse than you think this year. They lost a ton to graduation and their best player this year (Lindsey) is out for the season with a hip problem. They could pretty easily finish last in the conference.

Yeah, the more I look at Baylor I think they are  overvalued and they aren't picked to finish high in the Big 12. This might be the 9th or 10th best team in the league. 

They lost arguably their top 5 players from last year in Lindsey, Lecomte, Acuil JR, Matson and Omot. 

They added Kegler (Miss State transfer) and a couple JUCO in Allen/Bandoo but those JUCO are really raw. 

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Goo Punch

Goo Punch 4,275

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5 hours ago, texasstrong12 said:

Under the assumption we don't have any injuries this year: 

Eastern Illinois (W), Arkansas (W), ULM (W), Citadel (W), UNC (L), Michigan State or UCLA (W), Radford (W), VCU (W), Purdue (W), Grand Canyon (W), Providence (W), UTA (W), @ K-State (L), WV (W), @ OK State (W), Tech (W), @ Kansas (L), OU (W), @ TCU (L), @ Georgia (W), Kansas (L), @ Iowa State (L), Baylor (W), @ WV (L), K-State (W), OK State (W), @ Baylor (W), Iowa State (W), @ Tech (W), TCU (W).

 

 

18-1 at home? that would be nice.

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texasstrong12

texasstrong12 4,668

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Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

18-1 at home? that would be nice.

We went 13-4 at home last year. 14-3 at home in '15-16. Excluding the shit year in '16-17 (where we just weren't good) we haven't been bad at home. Our issues have been on the road. 

Also, last year Michigan was likely better than any nonconference team we play this year at home. 

The other 3 losses at home were to K-State (by 3 points), Kansas (6 points), Baylor (1 point). Generally speaking, we've played well at home under Shaka if you exclude the year where we were just a bad team. We didn't have Andrew Jones healthy in any of those games. Good chance we would have gone at least 15-2 at home last year with even a remotely healthy Andrew Jones.

Edited by texasstrong12
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Bitterwhiteguy

Bitterwhiteguy 153

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3 hours ago, texasstrong12 said:

We went 13-4 at home last year. 14-3 at home in '15-16. Excluding the shit year in '16-17 (where we just weren't good) we haven't been bad at home. Our issues have been on the road. 

Also, last year Michigan was likely better than any nonconference team we play this year at home. 

The other 3 losses at home were to K-State (by 3 points), Kansas (6 points), Baylor (1 point). Generally speaking, we've played well at home under Shaka if you exclude the year where we were just a bad team. We didn't have Andrew Jones healthy in any of those games. Good chance we would have gone at least 15-2 at home last year with even a remotely healthy Andrew Jones.

Michigan was #49 in Pomeroy when Texas played them last year, Purdue currently sits at 18. Providence (#49) is where Michigan was last year.

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Goo Punch

Goo Punch 4,275

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Posted

2003 went undefeated at home 

2004 lost once - preseason #4, finished #5, reached  Final 4

2006 lost once - preseason #2, finished #9, reached Elite 8 (should have made FF)

2008 lost once - preseason #15, finished #7, reached the Elite 8

2011 lost twice - preseason i ranked, finished #8, Screwed out of Sweet 16 berth 

 

weak non conference schedule aside, only our best ever teams avoided losing more than once at home, and all but one of them started the season in the top 15 nationally. I'd be pretty shocked if this team only had one home loss all season.

 

 

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texasstrong12

texasstrong12 4,668

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, Bitterwhiteguy said:

Michigan was #49 in Pomeroy when Texas played them last year, Purdue currently sits at 18. Providence (#49) is where Michigan was last year.

Michigan started to peak right when they played Texas and ended up in the final 4. It's very unlikely Providence or Purdue are the same caliber teams that Michigan ended up being last year. 

Unless you think Providence and Purdue are final 4 teams (which I don't). I think Purdue is actually drastically overvalued in Kenpom even though they returned Edwards. Purdue and Providence are going to be bubble type teams IMO. 

Edited by texasstrong12
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Bitterwhiteguy

Bitterwhiteguy 153

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1 hour ago, texasstrong12 said:

Michigan started to peak right when they played Texas and ended up in the final 4. It's very unlikely Providence or Purdue are the same caliber teams that Michigan ended up being last year. 

Unless you think Providence and Purdue are final 4 teams (which I don't). I think Purdue is actually drastically overvalued in Kenpom even though they returned Edwards. Purdue and Providence are going to be bubble type teams IMO. 

I went back and looked at Michigan's season last year and you're probably right, I think I remembered them starting to peak later than they actually did. That game was such a defensive rock fight that it colored how I viewed Michigan for most of the season. I tend to think Purdue will be safe from the bubble as long as Edwards plays to his ability, though I agree with you about Providence. 

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Catdaddyhorn

Catdaddyhorn 3,444

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Posted
On 11/3/2018 at 8:35 AM, ClubWhatever said:

No that’s about where I am.  I still don’t believe we can shoot threes or FT’s and I think we are going to get eaten up on the glass in a lot of games. 

This will be determined by who gets to shoot the free throws.  If Coleman, Osetkowski, and maybe even Roach get an overwhelming share of our free throw attempts we should be in decent shape. However, if Sims gets a sizable share along with a few freshmen (it doesn't matter how good a shooter freshmen are they always seem to shoot free throws at a rate far below than what they should) then we'll be shooting in the 60s as a team. 

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Goo Punch

Goo Punch 4,275

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On 11/2/2018 at 4:42 PM, Goo Punch said:

2003 went undefeated at home 

2004 lost once - preseason #4, finished #5, reached  Final 4

2006 lost once - preseason #2, finished #9, reached Elite 8 (should have made FF)

2008 lost once - preseason #15, finished #7, reached the Elite 8

2011 lost twice - preseason i ranked, finished #8, Screwed out of Sweet 16 berth 

 

weak non conference schedule aside, only our best ever teams avoided losing more than once at home, and all but one of them started the season in the top 15 nationally. I'd be pretty shocked if this team only had one home loss all season.

 

 

and yet i somehow am *not* shocked that we have two home losses by the first week of December. Great call. 

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