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Expectations for morning of Nov.7 ?

tantric superman

By tantric superman
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49 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

I'll be happy as fuck that the shit is over with.  The unbridled amount of ads, commercials, billboards and signs polluting just about everything is nauseating, and beyond.

This.

 

Can't wait to get back to the higher class of idiocy in regular advertising.

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Longhornmaniac8

Longhornmaniac8 255

Posted
Posted (edited)

I think the House goes D by 10-15 seats.

Senate is +1 to the Rs (I'm going to say Nelson and Donnelly hold on; McSally somehow comes back and upsets Sinema in AZ, but Rosen beats Heller in NV in a really close race; McCaskill and Heitkamp are toast).

Of those 6 listed, in order of confidence:

1) Heitkamp
2) Donnelly
3) Nelson
4) McSally
5) McCaskill
6) Rosen

Beto loses by 5 points. Rs sweep statewide elections.

Edited by Longhornmaniac8
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Js1

Js1 85334

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2 hours ago, David Dennison said:

Boy are you guys going to be upset when the presidential election starts next week.

Hickenlooper told people this week he’s running. It already fucking started. 

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NameWithHeld

NameWithHeld 101

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11 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

It's not about the press hating Obama, it's about the press selling a countervailing narrative.

The press's primarily allegiance is to getting eyeballs.

The prevailing narrative out of 2008 was "Oh my god everyone loves Obama", so selling "Obama isn't so popular after all!" after the 2010 result drove clicks.
The prevailing narrative out of 2016 is "Oh my god everyone hates Trump", so selling "Trump isn't so unpopular after all!" after the 2018 result will drive clicks.

Your victim complex is #sad.

The press narrative after the 2010 mid-term was one of a red wave. The Dems will get the same result, but not the same press narrative.

I'd love to be wrong, but ... lol

I believe that was sarcasm.  The MSM never hated BHO in fact they worshiped the ground he spit on.   

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Mo Horn

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After the shitfest that was today's football game i have zero optimism for anything. All 535 congressional seats will go red. Trump will declare himself President for life, Congress will ratify it, and the Supremes will oppose any and all challenges and uphold the change in the elimination of term limits. I hate everything and everything is fucked. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
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12 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

After the shitfest that was today's football game i have zero optimism for anything. All 535 congressional seats will go red. Trump will declare himself President for life, Congress will ratify it, and the Supremes will oppose any and all challenges and uphold the change in the elimination of term limits. I hate everything and everything is fucked. 

Relax....

all Texas has to do is win out and hope West Virginia beats OU right?

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8 hours ago, Mo Horn said:

After the shitfest that was today's football game i have zero optimism for anything. All 535 congressional seats will go red. Trump will declare himself President for life, Congress will ratify it, and the Supremes will oppose any and all challenges and uphold the change in the elimination of term limits. I hate everything and everything is fucked. 

After noon today, you can purchase beer again...

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G650

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11 hours ago, Mo Horn said:

After the shitfest that was today's football game i have zero optimism for anything. All 535 congressional seats will go red. Trump will declare himself President for life, Congress will ratify it, and the Supremes will oppose any and all challenges and uphold the change in the elimination of term limits. I hate everything and everything is fucked. 

Alabama beat LSU, all seems right with the world to me.

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gmr548

gmr548 16580

Posted
Posted
After the shitfest that was today's football game i have zero optimism for anything. All 535 congressional seats will go red. Trump will declare himself President for life, Congress will ratify it, and the Supremes will oppose any and all challenges and uphold the change in the elimination of term limits. I hate everything and everything is fucked. 
OU will still suck tho

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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JBJ

JBJ 3654

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Posted (edited)

 

On 11/2/2018 at 11:27 AM, David Dennison said:

If it's with the same numbers, they'll absolutely get a blue wave narrative. 

Hush.  BT was hoping to plant his moral victory banner early.

Edited by JBJ
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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32859

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

Hopefully a Culberson victory and keep TX-7 Republican since George HW Bush. It will blow my mind if Lizzie Fletcher wins. 

It would be a surprise but how would that be mind-blowing? The district went from Romney +21 to Clinton +1. Trump is hated in that district (Culberson won by 12 even while Clinton won the district) and Culberson has happily attached himself to Trump policies. I'd call it about a 55% chance of a Culberson win.

Edited by Huckleberry
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Posted
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14 minutes ago, Pancho Negro said:

Because there is actual voter suppression happening in 2018.

 

stop being stupid.

 

 

cry cry cry. We cannot vote.   What the fuck ever.

These people can do every other governmental function in life, but miraculously cannot vote.

 

Stop lieing.

Edited by slorch
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UTEX_ME

UTEX_ME 4762

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 11/2/2018 at 3:05 PM, Wally Pryor said:

I'll be happy as fuck that the shit is over with.  The unbridled amount of ads, commercials, billboards and signs polluting just about everything is nauseating, and beyond.

The real shitshow gets started Wednesday. 2020 baby! 

giphy.gif

Edited by UTEX_ME
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Jhawk

Jhawk 1075

Posted
Posted (edited)

The truth is the house doesn't really matter as we saw when O was in office.  We don't need budgets and we don't need to pass any laws when the stroke of a pen will get things done.  Trump's biggest effects, from here on out, are happening at the regulatory level, not the legislative.  If repubs keep the senate then Trump will get almost everything he wants and if he gets re-elected then he will stuff the courts so full of conservatives that the dems won't have all 3 branches of government under control for 20-30 years.

My prediction is a R senate and a slight D house.  Not more a 5 seat advantage in the house.  It goes back to republican in 2020.

Edited by Jhawk
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mdmost

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Posted
25 minutes ago, slorch said:

Stop lieing.

Did you mean: lying

 
 

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There is no such word as "lieing" in the English language. Lying is either not being truthful or "Lying down" (as on a couch, bed or the floor). It is the present participle of "lie."Sep 23, 2014
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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

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1 hour ago, slorch said:

 

 

cry cry cry. We cannot vote.   What the fuck ever.

These people can do every other governmental function in life, but miraculously cannot vote.

 

Stop lieing.

If you want to educate yourself on voter suppression and how it works in 2018, go to the source.  Don't rely on secondary evidence.  You will be less subject to partisan propaganda because you will actually know the truth.  You don't know whether someone is saying something because they are concerned about the process or they are partisan bitching.  So don't rely on that person you are arguing.

 

Here is the best evidence on voter suppression, a 4th Circuit Court opinion on it -- made after looking at all the evidence, listening to the experts, talking to everyone under oath, and analyzed by a panel of very smart people.  Suppression isn't billy clubs and hoses.  It is simple demographics:  find out that population x has y tendency more than population z.  Therefore, tie y tendency to voting ability.  It is that simple.  Below are five things the NC legislature did, a process that started the day after SCOTUS said no federal preclearance was required.

 

4th Circuit Opinion:

 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9MDZdoTx7ZWR1plSHRPd08wbDQ/view

(read pages 10-19 of the pdf)

 

Here, voting is racially polarized.  

 

Quote

After years of preclearance and expansion of voting access, by 2013 African American registration and turnout rates had finally reached near-parity with white registration and turnout rates. African Americans were poised to act as a major electoral force. But, on the day after the Supreme Court issued Shelby County v. Holder, 133 S. Ct. 2612 (2013), eliminating preclearance obligations, a leader of the party that newly dominated the legislature (and the party that rarely enjoyed African American support) announced an intention to enact what he characterized as an “omnibus” election law. Before enacting that law, the legislature requested data on the use, by race, of a number of voting practices. Upon receipt of the race data, the General Assembly enacted legislation that restricted voting and registration in five different ways, all of which disproportionately affected African Americans.

Immediately -- the next day -- after the SCOTUS said there doesn't need to be federal preclearance of changes in voting law, NC politician announced they were going to have an omnibus election law reform.

Quote

In this one statute, the North Carolina legislature imposed a number of voting restrictions. The law required in-person voters to show certain photo IDs, beginning in 2016, which African Americans disproportionately lacked, and eliminated or reduced registration and voting access tools that African Americans disproportionately used. Id. at *9-10, *37, *123, *127, *131. Moreover, as the district court found, prior to enactment of SL 2013-381, the legislature requested and received racial data as to usage of the practices changed by the proposed law. Id. at *136-38.

 

However, first the politicians sought out data on the use, by race, of different voting practices before they could figure out exactly what that omnibus bill would be.

 

Quote

This data showed that African Americans disproportionately lacked the most common kind of photo ID, those issued by the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV). Id. The pre-Shelby County version of SL 2013-381 provided that all government-issued IDs, even many that had been expired, would satisfy the requirement as an alternative to DMV-issued photo IDs. J.A. 2114-15. After Shelby County, with race data in hand, the legislature amended the bill to exclude many of the alternative photo IDs used by African Americans. Id. at *142; J.A. 2291-92. As amended, the bill retained only the kinds of IDs that white North Carolinians were more likely to possess. Id.; J.A. 3653, 2115, 2292.

One was that black people lacked a common form of ID.  So the bill was amended to require that ID.

 

Quote

The district court found that, prior to enactment of SL 2013-381, legislators also requested data as to the racial breakdown of early voting usage. Id. at *136-37. Early voting allows any registered voter to complete an absentee application and ballot at the same time, in person, in advance of Election Day. Id. at *4-5. Early voting thus increases opportunities to vote for those who have difficulty getting to their polling place on Election Day.

The racial data provided to the legislators revealed that African Americans disproportionately used early voting in both 2008 and 2012. Id. at *136-38; see also id. at *48 n.74 (trial evidence showing that 60.36% and 64.01% of African Americans voted early in 2008 and 2012, respectively, compared to 44.47% and 49.39% of whites). In particular, African Americans disproportionately used the first seven days of early voting. Id. After receipt of this racial data, the General Assembly amended the bill to eliminate the first week of early voting, shortening the total early voting period from seventeen to ten days. Id. at *15, *136. As a result, SL 2013-381 also eliminated one of two “souls-to-the-polls” Sundays in which African American churches provided transportation to voters. Id. at *55.

One  is that blacks preferred early voting, so early voting was shortened.

 

Quote

The district court found that legislators similarly requested data as to the racial makeup of same-day registrants. Id. at *137. Prior to SL 2013-381, same-day registration allowed eligible North Carolinians to register in person at an early voting site at the same time as casting their ballots. Id. at *6. Same-day registration provided opportunities for those as yet unable to register, as well as those who had ended up in the “incomplete registration queue” after previously attempting to register. Id. at *65. Same-day registration also provided an easy avenue to re-register for those who moved frequently, and allowed those with low literacy skills or other difficulty completing a registration form to receive personal assistance from poll workers. See id.

The legislature’s racial data demonstrated that, as the district court found, “it is indisputable that African American voters disproportionately used [same-day registration] when it was available.” Id. at *61. The district court further found that African American registration applications constituted a disproportionate percentage of the incomplete registration queue. Id. at *65. And the court found that African Americans “are more likely to move between counties,” and thus “are more likely to need to re-register.” Id. As evidenced by the types of errors that placed many African American applications in the incomplete queue, id. at *65, *123 & n.26, in-person assistance likely would disproportionately benefit African Americans. SL 2013-381 eliminated same-day registration. Id. at *15.

One was that black voters preferred same day registration.  So same day registration was eliminated.

 

Quote

Legislators additionally requested a racial breakdown of provisional voting, including out-of-precinct voting. Id. at *136-37. Out-of-precinct voting required the Board of Elections in each county to count the provisional ballot of an Election Day voter who appeared at the wrong precinct, but in the correct county, for all of the ballot items for which the voter was eligible to vote. Id. at *5-6. This provision assisted those who moved frequently, or who mistook a voting site as being in their correct precinct. The district court found that the racial data revealed that African Americans disproportionately voted provisionally. Id. at *137. In fact, the General Assembly that had originally enacted the out-of-precinct voting legislation had specifically found that “of those registered voters who happened to vote provisional ballots outside their resident precincts” in 2004, “a disproportionately high percentage were African American.” Id. at *138. With SL 2013-381, the General Assembly altogether eliminated out-of-precinct voting. Id. at *15.

One was that black voters preferred out of precinct voting.  So the NC legislature eliminated out of precinct voting.

 

Quote

African Americans also disproportionately used preregistration. Id. at *69. Preregistration permitted 16- and 17-year-olds, when obtaining driver’s licenses or attending mandatory high school registration drives, to identify themselves and indicate their intent to vote. Id. at *7, *68. This allowed County Boards of Elections to verify eligibility and automatically register eligible citizens once they reached eighteen. Id. at *7. Although preregistration increased turnout among young adult voters, SL 2013-381 eliminated it. Id. at *15, *69.3

One was that black voters disproportionately used pre-registration.  So pre-registration was eliminated. 

 

 

So you are right that everyone has to play by the same rules.  But you need to look at why those rules were chosen.  Was it to make the process better, or because they knew that it was a statistical certainty that fewer black people would vote?

Edited by SuingToGetAMessageBoard?
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Pancho

Pancho 44799

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, slorch said:

 

 

cry cry cry. We cannot vote.   What the fuck ever.

These people can do every other governmental function in life, but miraculously cannot vote.

 

Stop lieing.

 

This is what you people do.  You don't do your research to know what exactly voter suppression is and how it works.  There are many tactics (being used today even), but it's clear you refuse to actually research what those tactics are.  

Just a complete dumbfuck.  

 

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Posted
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1 hour ago, Pancho Negro said:

 

This is what you people do.  You don't do your research to know what exactly voter suppression is and how it works.  There are many tactics (being used today even), but it's clear you refuse to actually research what those tactics are.  

Just a complete dumbfuck.  

 

fuck off.

Stupidity is not being able to vote in these days and times and blaming it on someone else.

celebrate beto, baby.  get a big one.

 

7183b3b29ebd9149107c883fe21790e6.jpg

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Pancho

Pancho 44799

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Posted
26 minutes ago, slorch said:

fuck off.

Stupidity is not being able to vote in these days and times and blaming it on someone else.

celebrate beto, baby.  get a big one.

 

7183b3b29ebd9149107c883fe21790e6.jpg

 

Stupidity is not understanding the varying degrees of voter suppression when an example of it is happening in real time in Georgia right now. 

That's stupidity. 

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