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Texas @ Texas Tech 6:30 on Fox

MirrOlure

By MirrOlure
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gmr548

gmr548 16463

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ESPN FPI has Tech as the favorite with a 60 percent win probability. While that has moved a bit more towards Tech in recent weeks, they were favored in that metric even when Texas peaked at 6-1. Curious about the other metrics - Vegas, S&P, etc. If OU was a two TD favorite I have to think Texas opens -3 or something. Both teams have obvious flaws that the other is well equipped to exploit, and Texas would find a way to play both a 3A high school team and Alabama close, so of course I expect a close one.

Tech's QB situation is obviously the big X factor going into this game. Burnt orange shades removed, I still like Texas. Both defenses look like swiss cheese at the moment, but I do see Texas being able to generally contain a pretty pedestrian Tech running game. If Bowman is healthy I doubt they will surprise us trying to run him like OSU did - too risky. Granted, I don't even know how much they will try to run given what Texas has put on tape in pass defense over the past two weeks, but I do think they'll end up operating pretty one dimensional, regardless of whether it is by choice or not. That lends itself to a pretty small margin of error - one sack, missed throw, dropped pass, batted ball, etc. can throw a drive off schedule. That should allow Texas to get a couple of stops, even if it ends up being Tech stopping itself. On the flip side, Texas should be able to score largely at will and Sam has taken excellent care of the ball. Texas by 7-10 sounds right to me.

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5 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Texas defense allowed 500+ yards on each of last two games. TTU is 7th in the country in total offense, averaging 528. This is not going to be pretty.

Not without Bowman...

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The Tower

The Tower 362

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3 hours ago, BigOrange1 said:

man, i hope so.  at first i didn't like that fox was getting so many big 12 games, but now i love that gus and joel are becoming the unofficial voices of texas football.

No but we get these douchebags of Tim Brando and Spencer Tillman

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BluTechsan

BluTechsan 393

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1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

bMTxD0nG_400x400.jpg

Oh, what sad times are these when passing quarterbacks are hoped to be injured so that Texas can grab a cheap win, when in the olden days we'd get mad at anything but their best game. There is a pestilence upon this land. Nothing is sacred.

 

OU turned Alan Bowman into newt

python+HolyGrail027.jpg

Edited by BluTechsan
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Valmy77

Valmy77 13092

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, XYZ said:

Texas defense allowed 500+ yards on each of last two games. TTU is 7th in the country in total offense, averaging 528. This is not going to be pretty.

Oh it will be horrifying. I expect another track meet like the last two weeks.

Edited by Valmy77
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Valmy77

Valmy77 13092

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1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

bMTxD0nG_400x400.jpg

Oh, what sad times are these when passing quarterbacks are hoped to be injured so that Texas can grab a cheap win, when in the olden days we'd get mad at anything but their best game. There is a pestilence upon this land. Nothing is sacred.

We would? I don't recall us being too sad that Bradford got hurt in 2009.

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Goo Punch

Goo Punch 4275

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5 minutes ago, taybo20 said:

@Goo Punch says to bet on Tech right?

absolutely. i put two units on OSU +3 and i certainly don't regret it. I used to gamble quite a bit on sports, but i essentially never do any more aside form two scenarios: betting on tournaments well before they start where the odds are in the bettor's favor (I hit Germany in WC 2014 at 5/1, Frane in WC 2018 at 6/1, and Nova last April at 6/1), and this specific "favored road team" scenario. what both scenarios have in common is that the odds are unusually stacked in the bettor's favor. i'll gladly pay two or three units to see texas win, and should we lose then at least i can slam at pappadeaux for a night or baris for a week to quell my sorrows.

Edited by Goo Punch
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taybo20

taybo20 2815

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10 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

absolutely. i put two units on OSU +3 and i certainly don't regret it. I used to gamble quite a bit on sports, but i essentially never do any more aside form two scenarios: betting on tournaments well before they start where the odds are in the bettor's favor (I hit Germany in WC 2014 at 5/1, Frane in WC 2018 at 6/1, and Nova last April at 6/1), and this specific "favored road team" scenario. what both scenarios have in common is that the odds are unusually stacked in the bettor's favor. i'll gladly pay two or three units to see texas win, and should we lose then at least i can slam at pappadeaux for a night or baris for a week to quell my sorrows.

I liked this purely because of "i can slam at pappadeaux"

Edited by taybo20
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