Jump to content

Big 12 CCG Scenarios

Horndog

By Horndog
in Football

 Share

Recommended Posts

Horndog

Horndog 2,228

Posted
Posted

While we now need help, it's still possible.  With 3 games left, Texas can win out, or realistically lose 2 of 3.  The only realistic CCG participants at this point are OU (5-1), WVU (5-1), Texas (4-2), and ISU (4-2).  Here are the remaining schedules:

Texas - @Tech, ISU, @Kansas

OU - OSU, Kansas, @WVU

WVU - TCU, @OSU, OU

ISU - Baylor, @Texas, KSU

Scenario 1:  Texas wins out; OU and WVU win their next 2; OU beats WVU.  OU (8-1) is first and Texas and WVU tie for 2nd (7-2).  WVU wins tiebreaker head-to-head over Texas.  #1OU v. #2WVU rematch for CCG.

Scenario 2:  Texas wins out; OU and WVU win their next 2; WVU beats OU.  WVU (8-1) is first.  Texas and OU tie for 2nd (7-2).  Texas wins head-to-head.  #2Texas v. #1WV CCG.

Scenario 3:  Texas wins out; OU wins out; WVU loses to OU and one other.  OU is first (8-1); Texas is 2nd (7-2).  #1OU v.  #2Texas in CCG.

Scenario 4:  Texas wins out; OU wins next 2 and loses to WVU; WVU loses one other game and beats OU.  OU has no head to head wins and is eliminated. #1WVU v. #2Texas

Since history tells us that nothing good ever happens when we need OU to lose, Scenario Scenario 3 may be the only one that might have a chance.  So we need WVU to lose either to TCU or OSU.  If Texas loses another game, ISU is the only team that might break into the CCG besides OU and WVU.  If they win out (with a win over Texas) a win by OU over WVU probably puts ISU in the CCG because of their win over WVU.    

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jacob McCandles

Jacob McCandles 202

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Horndog said:

While we now need help, it's still possible.  With 3 games left, Texas can win out, or realistically lose 2 of 3.  The only realistic CCG participants at this point are OU (5-1), WVU (5-1), Texas (4-2), and ISU (4-2).  Here are the remaining schedules:

Texas - @Tech, ISU, @Kansas

OU - OSU, Kansas, @WVU

WVU - TCU, @OSU, OU

ISU - Baylor, @Texas, KSU

Scenario 1:  Texas wins out; OU and WVU win their next 2; OU beats WVU.  OU (8-1) is first and Texas and WVU tie for 2nd (7-2).  WVU wins tiebreaker head-to-head over Texas.  OU v. WVU rematch for CCG.

Scenario 2:  Texas wins out; OU and WVU win their next 2; WVU beats OU.  WVU (8-1) is first.  Texas and OU tie for 2nd (7-2).  Texas wins head-to-head.  Texas v. OU CCG.

Scenario 3:  Texas wins out; OU wins out; WVU loses to OU and one other.  OU is first (8-1); Texas is 2nd (7-2).  OU v.  Texas in CCG.

Scenario 4:  Texas wins out; OU wins next 2 and loses to WVU; WVU loses one other game and beats OU.  Three way tie at 7-2.  Head-to-head is tied at 1-1 each.  Next tiebreaker is record against 4th place team, likely ISU.  WVU is eliminated.  Texas and OU in CCG.  

Since history tells us that nothing good ever happens when we need OU to lose, Scenario Scenario 3 may be the only one that might have a chance.  So we need WVU to lose either to TCU or OSU.  If Texas loses another game, ISU is the only team that might break into the CCG besides OU and WVU.  If they win out (with a win over Texas) a win by OU over WVU probably puts ISU in the CCG because of their win over WVU.    

you have a typo in #2 - should be Texas v WVa

in #4, the three teams would not be 1-1 in head to head ... OU would be 0-2. Texas 1-1. WVa 2-0

Link to comment
Share on other sites
immamac

immamac 42,839

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Horndog said:

While we now need help, it's still possible.  With 3 games left, Texas can win out, or realistically lose 2 of 3.  The only realistic CCG participants at this point are OU (5-1), WVU (5-1), Texas (4-2), and ISU (4-2).  Here are the remaining schedules:

Texas - @Tech, ISU, @Kansas

OU - OSU, Kansas, @WVU

WVU - TCU, @OSU, OU

ISU - Baylor, @Texas, KSU

Scenario 1:  Texas wins out; OU and WVU win their next 2; OU beats WVU.  OU (8-1) is first and Texas and WVU tie for 2nd (7-2).  WVU wins tiebreaker head-to-head over Texas.  OU v. WVU rematch for CCG.

Scenario 2:  Texas wins out; OU and WVU win their next 2; WVU beats OU.  WVU (8-1) is first.  Texas and OU tie for 2nd (7-2).  Texas wins head-to-head.  Texas v. OU CCG.

Scenario 3:  Texas wins out; OU wins out; WVU loses to OU and one other.  OU is first (8-1); Texas is 2nd (7-2).  OU v.  Texas in CCG.

Scenario 4:  Texas wins out; OU wins next 2 and loses to WVU; WVU loses one other game and beats OU.  Three way tie at 7-2.  Head-to-head is tied at 1-1 each.  Next tiebreaker is record against 4th place team, likely ISU.  WVU is eliminated.  Texas and OU in CCG.  

Since history tells us that nothing good ever happens when we need OU to lose, Scenario Scenario 3 may be the only one that might have a chance.  So we need WVU to lose either to TCU or OSU.  If Texas loses another game, ISU is the only team that might break into the CCG besides OU and WVU.  If they win out (with a win over Texas) a win by OU over WVU probably puts ISU in the CCG because of their win over WVU.    

How does Scenario 2 not involve the first ranked Big XII team? Typo?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Zavala

Zavala 1,384

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, taybo20 said:

More recent history also tends to be we never get in the CCG when we lose control of our own destiny. But fuck it! Let’s go win and get in. Then fuck the big 12 out of a playoff spot

The shit 12 isn't getting a playoff spot even if blowU wins out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Horndog

Horndog 2,228

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 minute ago, Jacob McCandles said:

you have a typo in #2 - should be Texas v WVa

in #4, the three teams would not be 1-1 in head to head ... OU would be 0-2. Texas 1-1. WVa 2-0

You're right.  Tried to edit but too late.  In #2, Texas v. WVU.

In #4,  Texas v. WVU.  OU eliminated because 0-2 vs. others.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Horndog

Horndog 2,228

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Let's try again, with corrections.

 

While we now need help, it's still possible.  With 3 games left, Texas can win out, or realistically lose 2 of 3.  The only realistic CCG participants at this point are OU (5-1), WVU (5-1), Texas (4-2), and ISU (4-2).  Here are the remaining schedules:

Texas - @Tech, ISU, @Kansas

OU - OSU, Kansas, @WVU

WVU - TCU, @OSU, OU

ISU - Baylor, @Texas, KSU

Scenario 1:  Texas wins out; OU and WVU win their next 2; OU beats WVU.  OU (8-1) is first and Texas and WVU tie for 2nd (7-2).  WVU wins tiebreaker head-to-head over Texas.  OU v. WVU rematch for CCG.

Scenario 2:  Texas wins out; OU and WVU win their next 2; WVU beats OU.  WVU (8-1) is first.  Texas and OU tie for 2nd (7-2).  Texas wins head-to-head.  Texas v. OU  WVU CCG.

Scenario 3:  Texas wins out; OU wins out; WVU loses to OU and one other.  OU is first (8-1); Texas is 2nd (7-2).  OU v.  Texas in CCG.

Scenario 4:  Texas wins out; OU wins next 2 and loses to WVU; WVU loses one other game and beats OU.  Three way tie at 7-2.  Head-to-head is tied at 1-1 each  eliminates OU.  Next tiebreaker is record against 4th place team, likely ISU.  WVU is eliminated.  Texas and OU  WVU in CCG.  

Since history tells us that nothing good ever happens when we need OU to lose, Scenario Scenario 3 may be the only one that might have a chance.  So we need WVU to lose either to TCU or OSU.  If Texas loses another game, ISU is the only team that might break into the CCG besides OU and WVU.  If they win out (with a win over Texas) a win by OU over WVU probably puts ISU in the CCG because of their win over WVU.    

Link to comment
Share on other sites
'stache

'stache 21,802

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, immamac said:

Honestly neither OU or WVU is safe from OSU.

Very real possibility that ISU wins out and Texas does not. I think there are other scenarios besides WVU, OU and Texas getting into B XII CCG

We have zero chance at beating OU.  The merciful thing would be to have a running clock from the start.  I think we might have a shot at upsetting WVU.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
gecko

gecko 1,104

Posted
Posted (edited)

Beating a team twice in one year is a pretty dicey proposition (thank you B12 morons).  That said, I don't think WVU would beat us in a CCG rematch nor do I believe we would beat OU in a rematch.  The only way B12 could address this, albeit only partially, is to have the #1 seed host the B12 championship game. Give the #1 seed a home field advantage.  A way to give the #2 seed a larger portion, say 25% of the seating allocation could be worked out.

Edited by gecko
Link to comment
Share on other sites
C-Man

C-Man 27,214

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, gecko said:

Beating a team twice in one year is a pretty dicey proposition (thank you B12 morons).  That said, I don't think WVU would beat us in a CCG rematch nor do I believe we would beat OU in a rematch.  The only way B12 could address this, albeit only partially, is to have the #1 seed host the B12 championship game. Give the #1 seed a home field advantage.  A way to give the #2 seed a larger portion, say 25% of the seating allocation could be worked out.

Or you know, just get rid of the game altogether. That's how little sense the fucking thing makes.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
totallynotabuttpirate

totallynotabuttpirate 5,396

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 'stache said:

We have zero chance at beating OU.  The merciful thing would be to have a running clock from the start.  I think we might have a shot at upsetting WVU.

Dude, Tech prob beats them if KK doesn't stupidly run his 1-lung QB inside the 10. Their 3rd string QB almost beat them. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17,533

Posted
Posted

I think our best bet is #2. Seems feasible, although ISU is pretty scary right now. I actually think WVU beats OU. Amazingly, their defense may be worse than ours. 

I know everyone is in woe is us mode right now, but the offense is humming pretty well. After two weeks of getting absolutely torched, I'm hoping Orlando and the defense will do some deep soul searching and find the ability to only miss one tackle per play instead of 4 or 5. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
'stache

'stache 21,802

Posted
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

Dude, Tech prob beats them if KK doesn't stupidly run his 1-lung QB inside the 10. Their 3rd string QB almost beat them. 

Tech crushed us this year and have a good team.  Meanwhile, we suck and have no defense.  And even our good teams play like hot garbage against OU.  They will have wide receivers open with no defenders within 10 yards.  Only chance we have is that they are so wide open they get weirded out by how wide open they are and Murray will botch the throw or the WR botches the catch.  But that would never happen in Bedlam.  It's more likely that we will have one good defensive play but the ball will get batted right into another WR's hands who goes for a touchdown.  Even without luck, they won't punt a single time (I think we got one punt out of them last year).  It is probably the most mismatched Bedlam in recent memory.  If I were a gambler I'd put my life savings on OU crushing the 17 point spread.  I'm not just jaded or upset, this is based on having painfully observed every Bedlam play over the last 18 years. 

Edited by 'stache
Link to comment
Share on other sites
'stache

'stache 21,802

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, C-Man said:

And yet y'all beat us -- again. *sigh*

We played well that game.  We're capable of playing well.  We just haven't except for a few games this season, namely Boise State and UT.  We never play well against OU.  The only exception was 2011, and we're a long ways from that anomaly. 

Edited by 'stache
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21,151

Posted
Posted
Just now, totallynotabuttpirate said:

Well that's why they play the games..... I also don't see BlowU beating WVU twice with their defense. 

Neither do I.  But both times I thought they’d lose the last couple years, they didn’t.  I mentioned I don’t see OU winning out my first post in this thread.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Zavala

Zavala 1,384

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Lol. BlowU hears this all the time. I don’t think they’ll win out, but if they do, you’ll be shocked, yet again.  

I hope WVU beats em so we can get in the piss12 championship game, but I dont see the committee letting em jump Michigan. tOSU will have fully fallen apart by then. 

Although the committee is 100% full of shit and they get handed the rankings based on $ anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Treefidy

Treefidy 1,463

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, immamac said:

Honestly neither OU or WVU is safe from OSU.

Very real possibility that ISU wins out and Texas does not. I think there are other scenarios besides WVU, OU and Texas getting into B XII CCG

Agree.

WV has 3 very losable games left, the hardest schedule remaining.  I will not be surprised to see this years shitty TCU beat them.  I think he will copy ISU blueprint much better than we did, but can they score some points?    @ OSU depends on which of their teams shows up. And OU is more than capable of beating them. 

OU rolls into the WV game easily.  I don't think they can play enough defense to stop Grier but they could outscore them, no doubt. 

ISU has the easiest remaining schedule and easiest path of "needing help" group. They have to beat us and not go to sleep and they are in a good position since They only need WV to lose 1. This is the more likely scenario and their only realistic path in 

We have 2 really tough games left and if we win the next 2 then we better not sleep on KU.  Game there on a Friday night after thanksgiving.  Teams propensity to play down to the level, their high +turnover margin, Herman losing to shitty teams in his past.  WV beating OU or losing 2 are both very conceivable.  We have paths regardless of WV/OU outcome, but a hard road and several moving parts  

 

Edited by Treefidy
Link to comment
Share on other sites
'stache

'stache 21,802

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, NameWithHeld said:

Isn’t that what you said two Saturdays ago with Texas?  Or was that another ‘Stache?

I was actually openly optimistic about our chances in that game.  By optimistic, I said a few times I thought we had a chance.  Like maybe 20%, but a chance.  I was not as doom and gloom as other poke fans.  Even now I'm not falling off the deep end as I think we have a shot at upsetting WVU and a 50-50 shot at beating TCU.  I've just been a part of too many bedlam games and everytime I happen to see OU on TV they have WRs wide open or Murray is running for 50+ yards untouched.  If they're doing that to other teams, it will be tenfold against our open air defense currently.  They are playing chess while we're playing go fish.  We will lose by 30 points, minimum.

Edited by 'stache
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12,457

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Lol. BlowU hears this all the time. I don’t think they’ll win out, but if they do, you’ll be shocked, yet again.  

Exactly.  The only way a 1 loss OU gets left out is if the current 4 all win out.

Texas was in the same spot prior to the OK State loss.  A 1 loss OU or UT isn't getting left out unless there's some kind of really unlikely outcome among ND and every other power conference.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Spankytoes

Spankytoes 1,739

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, 903Cougar said:

but still

 

Clemson struggled with 5-4 aggy in week 2. They've allowed an average of less than 12 points for their opponent while scoring an average of 50 points in the other 8 games, including wins against 3 ranked teams. 

Is there any question they are the #2 team right now?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...