"Easy" Money Come Election Day (Prediction Market Gambling)

[Voldemort86 2,259]

You guys ever look at the comment section on predictit?
 

good lord..... it’s a beating. The people on there are so dumb. I think it’s either Russian trolls or Breitbart readers.

[Anastasis 23,474]

2 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

You guys ever look at the comment section on predictit?
 

good lord..... it’s a beating. The people on there are so dumb. 

That’s why you can make 20 cents on trump losing the popular vote, among many other things. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

I wonder how many Trump supporters have dumped their life savings (or maxed credit cards)  into this site because they’re convinced the polls and media are wrong? Trump winning by 

or maybe I will be the one wrong and pissed off on nov 4th.

I admit that I’m tempted to put more $ on here for some easy 10% wins.

[Anastasis 23,474]

4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I wonder how many Trump supporters have dumped their life savings (or maxed credit cards)  into this site because they’re convinced the polls and media are wrong?

Definitely maxed credit cards. And they will expect relief from a government bail out. 

Edited October 21, 2020 by Anastasis

[TeeDubya 3,362]

There are a lot of folks betting with their hearts and not their brains on predictit.  haha,
And I'm pronouncing it:  "Pree-dick-tit,"  which makes me giggle like Beavis and Butthead.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

4 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Definitely maxed credit cards. And they will expect relief from a government bail out. 

 

12 minutes ago, TeeDubya said:

There are a lot of folks betting with their hearts and not their brains on predictit.  haha,
And I'm pronouncing it:  "Pree-dick-tit,"  which makes me giggle like Beavis and Butthead.

So not only will some of these people lose, they will be paying 18% on their losses in the upcoming future.  But they get to stay home mad at the liberals for cheating and taking their money.  smh.

To be clear, I see some narrow paths for Trump to win the EC vote. I'm referring more to the people that bet for Trump to win the popular vote. Or continuing to bet on states that trump has zero chance of winning.  And if someone wanted to throw money for .01 on Minnesota for trump, that would be a good bet based on the polls. Instead they're betting .26.

[Anastasis 23,474]

You can get "Will Biden drop out by Nov 1" NO for 0.90 right now. And Hillary to run YES for 0.95.  Nickles and dimes probably not worth the effort unless you just have money laying around in the account undeployed.  But goes to show how stupid some of the markets are. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

16 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

You can get "Will Biden drop out by Nov 1" NO for 0.90 right now. And Hillary to run YES for 0.95.  Nickles and dimes probably not worth the effort unless you just have money laying around in the account undeployed.  But goes to show how stupid some of the markets are. 

That 5% doesn't even cover the withdrawal rate, right?

[Anastasis 23,474]

7 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

That 5% doesn't even cover the withdrawal rate, right?

The math doesn't work if you are depositing and withdrawaling with each bet.  If OTOH, you are rolling the winnings into other positions, it makes some semblance of sense to take the hyper short term nickles and dimes. At least IMO. 

[GRHorn 105]

Took small amounts on Trump winning Texas at $0.73 and winning Iowa at $0.62. 

[GRHorn 105]

On 10/21/2020 at 12:52 PM, Anastasis said:

You can get "Will Biden drop out by Nov 1" NO for 0.90 right now. And Hillary to run YES for 0.95.  Nickles and dimes probably not worth the effort unless you just have money laying around in the account undeployed.  But goes to show how stupid some of the markets are. 

I took that Biden one. I’ll pocket the 10% and roll it into some last minute state bets before Election Day. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

4 hours ago, GRHorn said:

Took small amounts on Trump winning Texas at $0.73 and winning Iowa at $0.62. 

Damn, I can't believe Iowa is down to 60 cents. I'd consider betting on that but I don't want to root for the bad guys.

[Anastasis 23,474]

5 hours ago, GRHorn said:

I took that Biden one. I’ll pocket the 10% and roll it into some last minute state bets before Election Day. 

The comments section is worth the price of admission alone. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

The MAGA dipshits are having a huge party on predict it tonight. Any reason for the shift?

[Ted Lange 16,110]

Read a bit of the comments section, it’s basically Texags.  

[Anastasis 23,474]

Just now, Ted Lange said:

Read a bit of the comments section, it’s basically Texags.  

Take aggy money. 

[Ted Lange 16,110]

On 10/21/2020 at 8:11 AM, Anastasis said:

Definitely maxed credit cards. And they will expect relief from a government bail out. 

Really unfortunate for those folks that Trump Slayed the Payday Lenders. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

damn you guys pulled me in for one more with the Biden drop out by 11/1 bet. With the credit card rewards, I'll take the 4-5% gain for 7 days. And then roll the winnings into a last bet before the 3rd.  in for a penny in for a pound.

[Anastasis 23,474]

4 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

Really unfortunate for those folks that Trump Slayed the Payday Lenders. 

[Anastasis 23,474]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

damn you guys pulled me in for one more with the Biden drop out by 11/1 bet. With the credit card rewards, I'll take the 4-5% gain for 7 days. And then roll the winnings into a last bet before the 3rd.  in for a penny in for a pound.

BuT wHaT If BIdEn DrOps OuT?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

BuT wHaT If BIdEn DrOps OuT?

haha. I couldn't imagine the pandemonium that would ensue on predictit. Biden just needs to stay healthy for another 10 days and I should see a decent return. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

double

Edited October 25, 2020 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Anastasis 23,474]

Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

haha. I couldn't imagine the pandemonium that would ensue on predictit. Biden just needs to stay healthy for another 10 days and I should see a decent return. 

Fuck Predicit. You cannot quantify the lulz. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

Nevada trending up on smallest margin of victory is some lulz. Biden is going to win by 10 there.

[BradInATX 9,208]

Fkn tapa

[Anastasis 23,474]

LOL.  Easy money. 

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5924/Will-a-federal-charge-against-Hunter-Biden-be-confirmed-by-Dec-31,-2020

[Continental Op 3,934]

I like "Biden wins AZ" at 0.58.  What say you, Surly degenerates? 

[henrygandorf 29,191]

7 minutes ago, Continental Op said:

I like "Biden wins AZ" at 0.58.  What say you, Surly degenerates? 

just buy trump winning arizona "no" at $0.54 instead, right?

[Anastasis 23,474]

13 minutes ago, Continental Op said:

I like "Biden wins AZ" at 0.58.  What say you, Surly degenerates? 

Yep. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

11 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

just buy trump winning arizona "no" at $0.54 instead, right?

I sure hope so because I played a couple bets like that; my Florida bet is Republican candidate NO vs. Biden yes, saved me a couple cents.

I like the AZ bet, Continental. I laid out the reasons on another thread, but it's pretty fuckin' solid by my estimation:

- Biden has a strong and consistent lead in Arizona, I mean look at this: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/arizona/
- It actually ended up that Hillary outperformed her polls. I think AZ and NV were the only two swing states where she did this, so there's not much risk of the silent Trump thing like we saw in the midwest
- Trump/McCain fued in a state McCain is prety well liked in, Cindy McCain endorsing Biden
- Huge early blue turnout in the Phoenix area (this was in another thread but it's huge compared to 2016).

 

I like it so much I just bought it myself. Fuck it, let's roll.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

The "Biden drop out by 11/1" contract has finally gone to .97 for No. Which still tells me that some people are still buying the other side. The Yes payout would be awesome but you have to be a Billy/April believer that Biden doesn't survive the weekend.

If it can bump up to 98 or definitely 99 in the next day or so, I will forgo the last penny of profit to move into another bet. I've promised myself no more deposits.

[GRHorn 105]

Some movement the last couple days. Florida now more in R column than Pennsylvania is in D column. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

Trump losing AZ is at 53/54. That feels like a great bet especially if you trust 538 which has Trump down to a 34% chance to win. A warning sign is that 538 does have a couple of B/C polls the past few days showing a tight(er) race than from the previous week.  It could be some undecideds are leaning towards Trump.

for the most part, I'm using predictit for low payout bets. I can't decide if I'm going to take larger risks.

 

[Anastasis 23,474]

I'm probably gonna roll a good chunk of my Biden drops out position to AZ when it closes, but it feels kinda like a trap to me. End of the day, I think Brad's points are well made and you got to mix some of those bigger payouts in with the easy money or the dopamine wears off. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

I'm trying to figure out what to do with my fairly big Biden to win Florida bet. I could exit it right now for about a 20% loss. I'm also considering hedging it with GOP by 0-1% (10 cents) and 1-2% (12 cents). If Trump wins it's not going to be by much.

[BradInATX 9,208]

17 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

or the dopamine wears off. 

LMAO. Ain't that the truth. I'm playing this with my stonks "playing around" account. I like getting my money in this better than the market right now for +EV. Dopamine as fuck, though.

 

I just hedged my Florida bet.

$386 in.

Biden wins I'm +$214. 

Trump wins by 0-2% I'm +$14

I think I'm okay taking some upside out of Florida but making it safer. I have  other bets that I like a lot more to let roll all the way through 11/3

Edited October 28, 2020 by BradInATX

[GRHorn 105]

On 10/22/2020 at 1:34 PM, GRHorn said:

I took that Biden one. I’ll pocket the 10% and roll it into some last minute state bets before Election Day. 

I got impatient. Sold at 0.97 from 0.90. 
Rolled it all into Trump winning Florida at 0.60. 

[immamac 42,857]

What's the max amount you can bet?

[Loch Ness Monster 3,533]

Definitely would bet on Trump winning Florida. More morons there than even Kentucky or Alabama. 

[Anastasis 23,474]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

What's the max amount you can bet?

$850 in any given position. But you can take multiple positions in a market and put more on line but the maths gets weird. 

Edited October 28, 2020 by Anastasis

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

14 hours ago, immamac said:

What's the max amount you can bet?

 

12 hours ago, Anastasis said:

$850 in any given position. But you can take multiple positions in a market and put more on line but the maths gets weird. 

And there can be multiple ways to effectively bet the same result.  Biden winning the potus race, Harris winning the go. Or the opposite.

hopefully predictit has upped their capabilities to handle election night. We will see some crazy swings. I think the key might be understanding the early states returns and how that impacts results later on. But I realize I’m an amateur when they are professionals playing these games.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

The No bet of Texas GOP (Trump) win by >=8% is at .82. 

Convince me why this isn't a trap bet? Even with increased turnout, I can't still see Trump winning Texas but by more than 8%? That basically means a repeat of 2016. This would also be a monumental failure of polling.

[BradInATX 9,208]

That's free money. Take it if you have funds in the account.

[Anastasis 23,474]

23 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The No bet of Texas GOP (Trump) win by >=8% is at .82. 

Convince me why this isn't a trap bet? Even with increased turnout, I can't still see Trump winning Texas but by more than 8%? That basically means a repeat of 2016. This would also be a monumental failure of polling.

Beto lost 2018 by 2.5%. Trump won 2016 by 9%. Most recent polls show Trump +1-2.5%.  Yeah, I don't see 8+ happening. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

I won't put the amounts but here are my positions.

• Biden win POTUS:  .68
• US popular margin of victory for Dems
  • 6-7.5%:  .13
  • 7.5-9%:  .14
  • 9-10.5%:  .11
  • >10.5%:  .28  (this is really my only major paper loss at the moment. This was a hedge in case Biden overperforms)
• State with lowest Margin of Victory (Ohio):  .11
• Trump win popular vote (No):  .76
• Party win MN (Dem): .78
• Trump loses any state that he won (Yes): .86
• Texas president race. GOP >8% (No):  .82

 I thought some of these bets would have been decent sells by now. The other side is holding strong. May be I'll be crying on Tuesday night.

 

 

[Red Five 40,859]

I've got $ on Biden winning POTUS, and Biden winning Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

21 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I won't put the amounts but here are my positions.

• Biden win POTUS:  .68
• US popular margin of victory for Dems
  • 6-7.5%:  .13
  • 7.5-9%:  .14
  • 9-10.5%:  .11
  • >10.5%:  .28  (this is really my only major paper loss at the moment. This was a hedge in case Biden overperforms)
• State with lowest Margin of Victory (Ohio):  .11
• Trump win popular vote (No):  .76
• Party win MN (Dem): .78
• Trump loses any state that he won (Yes): .86
• Texas president race. GOP >8% (No):  .82

 I thought some of these bets would have been decent sells by now. The other side is holding strong. May be I'll be crying on Tuesday night.

 

 

I like all of those bets. Texas obviously a long shot but that's your home run swing. I'm not sure that there's any more value in your popular vote margin spread than just voting Biden to win the election. But it's a way to get more money down, if that's what you were doing.

Every single one of my bets is in the red except for my Ohio MOV. And I feel great about almost all of them except the Florida bet that I hedged yesterday. I'm planning to ride them all the way unless they're looking completely DOA and I can recoup a bit.

I prob shouldn't have posted my amounts but I figured this was basically the stonks thread for the CR. 

Edited October 29, 2020 by BradInATX

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

7 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I like all of those bets. Texas obviously a long shot but that's your home run swing. I'm not sure that there's any more value in your popular vote margin spread than just voting Biden to win the election. But it's a way to get more money down, if that's what you were doing.

Every single one of my bets is down except for my Ohio MOV. And I feel great about almost all of them except the Florida bet that I hedged yesterday.

I prob shouldn't have posted my amounts but I figured this was basically the stonks thread for the CR. 

Nothing wrong with posting the amounts. I'm slightly sick to my stomach on the amounts to be honest. I wouldn't mind some of them moving more to the positive so I can lower my risk somewhat. if you read my bets, obviously I think Biden is going to do relatively well.

[Anastasis 23,474]

I'm on:

Trump NO win election @ 0.66 (currently @ 0.60)

Biden NO win election @ 0.87 (currently @ 0.36) - took these positions during the primary and never found a spot to dump them and go long Biden.  A Biden win will net me like $36 lol.

DEM win election @ 0.60 (currently 0.65) - maxed out

GOP lose election @ 0.52 (currently 0.61) - maxed out

Biden drop out NO @ 0.90 (currently 0.99) - maxed out - will roll some of this into AZ I think. 

Trump NO win popular vote @ 0.80 (currently 0.81) - maxed out

Trump lose any state won 2016 YES @ 0.83 (flat at 0.83)

I also have a couple Texas positions on Biden to win to hedge my bet with JimmyJames. I'll look to dump those election night as early results from the urban areas roll in. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I won't put the amounts but here are my positions.

• Biden win POTUS:  .68
• US popular margin of victory for Dems
  • 6-7.5%:  .13
  • 7.5-9%:  .14
  • 9-10.5%:  .11
  • >10.5%:  .28  (this is really my only major paper loss at the moment. This was a hedge in case Biden overperforms)
• State with lowest Margin of Victory (Ohio):  .11
• Trump win popular vote (No):  .76
• Party win MN (Dem): .78
• Trump loses any state that he won (Yes): .86
• Texas president race. GOP >8% (No):  .82

 I thought some of these bets would have been decent sells by now. The other side is holding strong. May be I'll be crying on Tuesday night.

 

 

no way hell Trump wins the popular vote with this turnout. No way in hell does trump win Minnesota. 
 

state with lowest margin of victory is more likely to be Florida or North Carolina. 
 

trump will lose a state that he won

winner of Texas will be within 5 points

those are all easy bets right now.