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"Easy" Money Come Election Day (Prediction Market Gambling)


Anastasis

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10 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Let's see if the servers hold up tonight.

 

I'm on NO R House R Senate @ 0.28. 

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election

I got the same except I got my shares 0.26.  

I got Fetterman shares at 0.39 and felt like I overpaid.

Most of my others were longshots in horserace.  For example,  McMullin in Utah and Barnes in Wisconsin.  I' need to watch the returns closely now in Wisconsin, that market is moving.

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  • 8 months later...
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Plans by prediction market Kalshi to let users bet on which party will control the chambers of Congress have been turned down by regulators at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The regulator said the contracts would involve unlawful gaming and activity and would be "contrary to the public interest" after KalshiEx LLC made a submission in June 2023.

The contracts would have been settled in cash and let users bet on yes or no questions about whether the Republicans or Democrats would control the House and Senate in a given term.

Last year, an appeals court ruled that another prediction market, PredictIt, should be allowed to continue operating until a final court ruling, despite a CFTC order to shut down.

A representative of Kalshi did not immediately respond to a CoinDesk request for comment.

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/09/22/cftc-denies-kalshis-plan-to-let-users-bet-on-control-of-us-congress/

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  • 2 weeks later...

FWIW:

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6. What’s the current status of prediction markets?

 

The United States currently classifies prediction markets as gambling, so real-money prediction markets are mostly illegal. This has forced markets to pursue one of three strategies:

  1. Operate outside the United States, closed to US citizens. Polymarket fills this niche effectively.

  2. Make special deals with US regulators for exemptions to the usual restrictions. Usually these deals involve promises to have a very limited set of questions or deal in very small bets only. PredictIt used to be the leader here, but regulators changed their mind and are shutting it down. Kalshi will probably replace it.

  3. Operate using play-money only. Here Manifold is the leader. You could also think of superforecasting tournaments like Metaculus as a version of this.

I claim that the main reason prediction markets haven’t fulfilled their potential and become a major pillar of worldwide decision-making is that none of these solutions are really adequate.

For whatever reason, most people interested in prediction markets are American, so Polymarket has a limited userbase.

The regulators are pretty harsh, so the companies that strike deals to get exemptions usually have to trade away most of their functionality. Kalshi can only ask a few specific regulator-approved questions; the limits are so harsh that they’re not even allowed to predict elections.

Play-money prediction markets like Manifold are a lot of fun, but there’s a limit to how much work people will do to earn play money. ...

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-market-faq#§whats-the-current-status-of-prediction-markets

I found the above while trying to figure out if the Zeitgeist prediction market was kosher for US residents (which I'm still not sure about).

Edited by bernorange
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I forgot about PredictIt. I loved how you could sell your bets on the open market whether it or down.  Good way to get out of a position.

It was a lot of fun and in 2016, PredictIt was WAY ahead of the news organizations in recognizing that Trump had won. Or at least if the new orgs knew, they weren't saying it yet.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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  • 7 months later...
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The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed a formal rejection of event contracts that bet on the outcome of political activity in a vote on Friday, beginning an effort to wall off U.S. customers from platforms that allow the trading of predictive contracts.

The agency has conducted a years-long legal fight with such firms, and the proposed rulemaking approved by the three Democratic appointees to the U.S. derivatives agency would declare trading on political outcomes as "contrary to the public interest" and legally equate them with illicit contracts on war, terrorism and assassination. Agency officials also noted that the CFTC is not a gambling regulator, and the agency wouldn't be capable of ensuring market integrity in this field.

Prediction platforms including PredictIt, Polymarket, Zeitgeist and Kalshi give users opportunities to buy contracts on the outcomes of actual events, including elections and policy developments, and they've been popular in crypto circles. Buyers make yes-or-no bets that pay off if they're right and cost them money if they're wrong. Contracts on political contests, awards contests and the outcome of games would be banned for U.S.-regulated companies under the proposal.

"Contracts involving political events ultimately commoditize and degrade the integrity of the uniquely American experience of participating in the democratic electoral process," Chairman Rostin Behnam argued in the Friday meeting. "To be blunt, such contracts would put the CFTC in the role of an election cop."

Behnam had signaled in March that this proposal was coming, and the draft rule that moved forward today still needs to pass through a 60-day period of public comments and then a process to approve a final rule.

During the Friday meeting, Commissioner Caroline Pham – one of the opponents of the proposal – called it a "stunning overreach." She also criticized the agency's legal and enforcement track record and suggested a need for Government Accountability Office review of the regulator.

"A third-party review can help us get back to the basics and on track," Pham said.
...

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/05/10/us-cftc-proposes-ban-on-political-event-contracts/

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  • 4 months later...

Still working pi. polymarket has more action but is crypto based and I don't personally fuck with that shit. PI needs to get their act together, but understood that the hall monitors are up their ass.

 

Edited by Anastasis
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oh, and easy money is trump no @ 54 cents right now. Turn 850 into 1500.  You can basically get the same payout across multiple markets. You hate Christmas if you don't take the easy money. 

Edited by Anastasis
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  • 3 weeks later...
On 9/14/2024 at 12:28 AM, Anastasis said:

oh, and easy money is trump no @ 54 cents right now. Turn 850 into 1500.  You can basically get the same payout across multiple markets. You hate Christmas if you don't take the easy money. 

It was in the 46 range for a long time, but it's up to 51 now.

Harris next president? is 52-48. These do not seem to be in line with reality. 

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The number of markets that PI fields is shit right now. They use to have crazy markets and lots of them. Shit like how many mean tweets will Trump have today. Right now you can only get two markets on state presidential races (GA and WI). I think that the warning letters and the ongoing lawsuit has them shook. Polymarket looks to be more active with the markets, but the withdrawals are handled in crypto. 

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7 minutes ago, Red Five said:

This is the craziest one to me. A GOP blowout is lapping the field. 

image.png.8357c8a1a8641abc4cc097b8eda69d8f.png

Would a red wave taking most or all of the swing states put trumps win at 65-104? IF the polls are all off by 5 points of a hidden Trump vote, I could see that being the outcome.

The no side of that bet is $0.72 which seems like a decent payout for an unlikely event.

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2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Would a red wave taking most or all of the swing states put trumps win at 65-104? IF the polls are all off by 5 points of a hidden Trump vote, I could see that being the outcome.

The no side of that bet is $0.72 which seems like a decent payout for an unlikely event.

I played around with the map, because I'm busy at work, and gave Trump Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, NC, Michigan, and PA. Every swing state except Wisconsin. Even that doesn't get him to a 65 point EC win. 

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7 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Would a red wave taking most or all of the swing states put trumps win at 65-104? IF the polls are all off by 5 points of a hidden Trump vote, I could see that being the outcome.

The no side of that bet is $0.72 which seems like a decent payout for an unlikely event.

If he wins all 7 swing states, which he won't, he would win 312-226.  86 EC vote margin, which looks like it splits the difference between 65 and 104. 

But you see, this is what happens when you drop a bunch of crappy polls by crappy firms who were really wrong 2 years ago, but they made sure to bake into the media the narrative of a red wave. 

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10 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Would a red wave taking most or all of the swing states put trumps win at 65-104? IF the polls are all off by 5 points of a hidden Trump vote, I could see that being the outcome.

The no side of that bet is $0.72 which seems like a decent payout for an unlikely event.

I'm on NO positions on both GOP +65-104 and GOP +105-159. Seems like easy money. 

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The problem with a shitty betting line in sports is that it will get hammered by people who know what they are doing. Does that concept not exist here, or is there just that much money coming in from Team R trying to will this into existence? Because this is just nutty.

image.thumb.png.ef6dbe6c09bd688eb954b46432f929f0.png

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4 hours ago, Red Five said:

The problem with a shitty betting line in sports is that it will get hammered by people who know what they are doing. Does that concept not exist here, or is there just that much money coming in from Team R trying to will this into existence? Because this is just nutty.

image.thumb.png.ef6dbe6c09bd688eb954b46432f929f0.png

 

4 hours ago, Anastasis said:

There is just lots of dumb money I think. 

Unless you can put a shitload down on one side it could easily be propaganda.  If someone wanted could they hammer this for 7 figures? 
If the total loss is in the millions or even 10’s of millions that could be worth the propaganda ammo of ‘oh look! She won by that much and look what the polls and even betting markets showed!  Vegas doesn’t make these mistakes! Durrrrrr’

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11 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

 

Unless you can put a shitload down on one side it could easily be propaganda.  If someone wanted could they hammer this for 7 figures? 
If the total loss is in the millions or even 10’s of millions that could be worth the propaganda ammo of ‘oh look! She won by that much and look what the polls and even betting markets showed!  Vegas doesn’t make these mistakes! Durrrrrr’

They’re just shaping the battlefield when/in case he loses.  Shoddy polls and betting odds to  point at as evidence to sell the supporters that it was taken from them. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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17 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

 

Unless you can put a shitload down on one side it could easily be propaganda.  If someone wanted could they hammer this for 7 figures? 
If the total loss is in the millions or even 10’s of millions that could be worth the propaganda ammo of ‘oh look! She won by that much and look what the polls and even betting markets showed!  Vegas doesn’t make these mistakes! Durrrrrr’

$850 max on any market in predicit (others may be different), which probably contributes to some of the really out of whack markets there cause you can't just come in and roll $72k to pay out $100k on that +65-104 band. Max is $850 to wine $1,150.  

Edited by Anastasis
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Yeah, the small limits really distort things imo.  PI just shows there are more trump supporters willing to fuck around with a small amount of money that they don't mind losing.

But then PolyMarket supposedly has one guy throwing around millions that has single-handedly shifted the odds so who the fuck knows.

Edited by WBT
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