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"Easy" Money Come Election Day (Prediction Market Gambling)

Anastasis

By Anastasis
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Is your wife pregnant?  If so, where did the ob/gyn go to med school?  Asking for a friend.  *calls bookie* 

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PhillyD

PhillyD 1257

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Let's see if the servers hold up tonight.

 

I'm on NO R House R Senate @ 0.28. 

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election

I got the same except I got my shares 0.26.  

I got Fetterman shares at 0.39 and felt like I overpaid.

Most of my others were longshots in horserace.  For example,  McMullin in Utah and Barnes in Wisconsin.  I' need to watch the returns closely now in Wisconsin, that market is moving.

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bernorange

bernorange 8351

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Plans by prediction market Kalshi to let users bet on which party will control the chambers of Congress have been turned down by regulators at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The regulator said the contracts would involve unlawful gaming and activity and would be "contrary to the public interest" after KalshiEx LLC made a submission in June 2023.

The contracts would have been settled in cash and let users bet on yes or no questions about whether the Republicans or Democrats would control the House and Senate in a given term.

Last year, an appeals court ruled that another prediction market, PredictIt, should be allowed to continue operating until a final court ruling, despite a CFTC order to shut down.

A representative of Kalshi did not immediately respond to a CoinDesk request for comment.

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/09/22/cftc-denies-kalshis-plan-to-let-users-bet-on-control-of-us-congress/

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bernorange

bernorange 8351

Posted
Posted (edited)

FWIW:

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6. What’s the current status of prediction markets?

 

The United States currently classifies prediction markets as gambling, so real-money prediction markets are mostly illegal. This has forced markets to pursue one of three strategies:

  1. Operate outside the United States, closed to US citizens. Polymarket fills this niche effectively.

  2. Make special deals with US regulators for exemptions to the usual restrictions. Usually these deals involve promises to have a very limited set of questions or deal in very small bets only. PredictIt used to be the leader here, but regulators changed their mind and are shutting it down. Kalshi will probably replace it.

  3. Operate using play-money only. Here Manifold is the leader. You could also think of superforecasting tournaments like Metaculus as a version of this.

I claim that the main reason prediction markets haven’t fulfilled their potential and become a major pillar of worldwide decision-making is that none of these solutions are really adequate.

For whatever reason, most people interested in prediction markets are American, so Polymarket has a limited userbase.

The regulators are pretty harsh, so the companies that strike deals to get exemptions usually have to trade away most of their functionality. Kalshi can only ask a few specific regulator-approved questions; the limits are so harsh that they’re not even allowed to predict elections.

Play-money prediction markets like Manifold are a lot of fun, but there’s a limit to how much work people will do to earn play money. ...

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-market-faq#§whats-the-current-status-of-prediction-markets

I found the above while trying to figure out if the Zeitgeist prediction market was kosher for US residents (which I'm still not sure about).

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13419

Posted
Posted (edited)

I forgot about PredictIt. I loved how you could sell your bets on the open market whether it or down.  Good way to get out of a position.

It was a lot of fun and in 2016, PredictIt was WAY ahead of the news organizations in recognizing that Trump had won. Or at least if the new orgs knew, they weren't saying it yet.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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bernorange

bernorange 8351

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The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed a formal rejection of event contracts that bet on the outcome of political activity in a vote on Friday, beginning an effort to wall off U.S. customers from platforms that allow the trading of predictive contracts.

The agency has conducted a years-long legal fight with such firms, and the proposed rulemaking approved by the three Democratic appointees to the U.S. derivatives agency would declare trading on political outcomes as "contrary to the public interest" and legally equate them with illicit contracts on war, terrorism and assassination. Agency officials also noted that the CFTC is not a gambling regulator, and the agency wouldn't be capable of ensuring market integrity in this field.

Prediction platforms including PredictIt, Polymarket, Zeitgeist and Kalshi give users opportunities to buy contracts on the outcomes of actual events, including elections and policy developments, and they've been popular in crypto circles. Buyers make yes-or-no bets that pay off if they're right and cost them money if they're wrong. Contracts on political contests, awards contests and the outcome of games would be banned for U.S.-regulated companies under the proposal.

"Contracts involving political events ultimately commoditize and degrade the integrity of the uniquely American experience of participating in the democratic electoral process," Chairman Rostin Behnam argued in the Friday meeting. "To be blunt, such contracts would put the CFTC in the role of an election cop."

Behnam had signaled in March that this proposal was coming, and the draft rule that moved forward today still needs to pass through a 60-day period of public comments and then a process to approve a final rule.

During the Friday meeting, Commissioner Caroline Pham – one of the opponents of the proposal – called it a "stunning overreach." She also criticized the agency's legal and enforcement track record and suggested a need for Government Accountability Office review of the regulator.

"A third-party review can help us get back to the basics and on track," Pham said.
...

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/05/10/us-cftc-proposes-ban-on-political-event-contracts/

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23404

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Still working pi. polymarket has more action but is crypto based and I don't personally fuck with that shit. PI needs to get their act together, but understood that the hall monitors are up their ass.

 

Edited by Anastasis
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23404

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oh, and easy money is trump no @ 54 cents right now. Turn 850 into 1500.  You can basically get the same payout across multiple markets. You hate Christmas if you don't take the easy money. 

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Red Five

Red Five 40701

Posted
Posted
On 9/14/2024 at 12:28 AM, Anastasis said:

oh, and easy money is trump no @ 54 cents right now. Turn 850 into 1500.  You can basically get the same payout across multiple markets. You hate Christmas if you don't take the easy money. 

It was in the 46 range for a long time, but it's up to 51 now.

Harris next president? is 52-48. These do not seem to be in line with reality. 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23404

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The number of markets that PI fields is shit right now. They use to have crazy markets and lots of them. Shit like how many mean tweets will Trump have today. Right now you can only get two markets on state presidential races (GA and WI). I think that the warning letters and the ongoing lawsuit has them shook. Polymarket looks to be more active with the markets, but the withdrawals are handled in crypto. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13419

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Red Five said:

This is the craziest one to me. A GOP blowout is lapping the field. 

image.png.8357c8a1a8641abc4cc097b8eda69d8f.png

Would a red wave taking most or all of the swing states put trumps win at 65-104? IF the polls are all off by 5 points of a hidden Trump vote, I could see that being the outcome.

The no side of that bet is $0.72 which seems like a decent payout for an unlikely event.

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Red Five

Red Five 40701

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Would a red wave taking most or all of the swing states put trumps win at 65-104? IF the polls are all off by 5 points of a hidden Trump vote, I could see that being the outcome.

The no side of that bet is $0.72 which seems like a decent payout for an unlikely event.

I played around with the map, because I'm busy at work, and gave Trump Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, NC, Michigan, and PA. Every swing state except Wisconsin. Even that doesn't get him to a 65 point EC win. 

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Js1

Js1 85161

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Would a red wave taking most or all of the swing states put trumps win at 65-104? IF the polls are all off by 5 points of a hidden Trump vote, I could see that being the outcome.

The no side of that bet is $0.72 which seems like a decent payout for an unlikely event.

If he wins all 7 swing states, which he won't, he would win 312-226.  86 EC vote margin, which looks like it splits the difference between 65 and 104. 

But you see, this is what happens when you drop a bunch of crappy polls by crappy firms who were really wrong 2 years ago, but they made sure to bake into the media the narrative of a red wave. 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23404

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10 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Would a red wave taking most or all of the swing states put trumps win at 65-104? IF the polls are all off by 5 points of a hidden Trump vote, I could see that being the outcome.

The no side of that bet is $0.72 which seems like a decent payout for an unlikely event.

I'm on NO positions on both GOP +65-104 and GOP +105-159. Seems like easy money. 

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Red Five

Red Five 40701

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Posted
1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

GOP +105-159

This would have Trump winning all seven swing states, plus.... um, Virginia? And MN? In what world is this even a tiny possibility. And yet, better odds than Harris winning a close race (15-34). Insane.  

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Red Five

Red Five 40701

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The problem with a shitty betting line in sports is that it will get hammered by people who know what they are doing. Does that concept not exist here, or is there just that much money coming in from Team R trying to will this into existence? Because this is just nutty.

image.thumb.png.ef6dbe6c09bd688eb954b46432f929f0.png

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21112

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Red Five said:

The problem with a shitty betting line in sports is that it will get hammered by people who know what they are doing. Does that concept not exist here, or is there just that much money coming in from Team R trying to will this into existence? Because this is just nutty.

image.thumb.png.ef6dbe6c09bd688eb954b46432f929f0.png

 

4 hours ago, Anastasis said:

There is just lots of dumb money I think. 

Unless you can put a shitload down on one side it could easily be propaganda.  If someone wanted could they hammer this for 7 figures? 
If the total loss is in the millions or even 10’s of millions that could be worth the propaganda ammo of ‘oh look! She won by that much and look what the polls and even betting markets showed!  Vegas doesn’t make these mistakes! Durrrrrr’

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52384

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

 

Unless you can put a shitload down on one side it could easily be propaganda.  If someone wanted could they hammer this for 7 figures? 
If the total loss is in the millions or even 10’s of millions that could be worth the propaganda ammo of ‘oh look! She won by that much and look what the polls and even betting markets showed!  Vegas doesn’t make these mistakes! Durrrrrr’

They’re just shaping the battlefield when/in case he loses.  Shoddy polls and betting odds to  point at as evidence to sell the supporters that it was taken from them. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23404

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17 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

 

Unless you can put a shitload down on one side it could easily be propaganda.  If someone wanted could they hammer this for 7 figures? 
If the total loss is in the millions or even 10’s of millions that could be worth the propaganda ammo of ‘oh look! She won by that much and look what the polls and even betting markets showed!  Vegas doesn’t make these mistakes! Durrrrrr’

$850 max on any market in predicit (others may be different), which probably contributes to some of the really out of whack markets there cause you can't just come in and roll $72k to pay out $100k on that +65-104 band. Max is $850 to wine $1,150.  

Edited by Anastasis
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WBT

WBT 20483

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Posted (edited)

Yeah, the small limits really distort things imo.  PI just shows there are more trump supporters willing to fuck around with a small amount of money that they don't mind losing.

But then PolyMarket supposedly has one guy throwing around millions that has single-handedly shifted the odds so who the fuck knows.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29183

Posted
Posted

the chances to 6-7x your $ are on the dem ec ranges. on dems 35-64 and 65-104 for 12-14c a pop. 

not much movement except down a bit, so of course i bought more. 

turning 73 into 100 is great but with the fees you’re not clearing much. 

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bernorange

bernorange 8351

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Robinhood will begin rolling out presidential election event contracts on October 28 through Robinhood Derivatives

Two weeks ago, we hosted hundreds of Robinhood customers in Miami at our inaugural HOOD Summit. There, we announced Robinhood Legend, and that index options and futures would be coming soon, offered by Robinhood Derivatives, LLC (RHD). Now RHD is following up on this announcement with the launch of presidential election event contracts, ahead of the November 5 general election.

Event contracts allow customers to trade on the outcome of specific events, such as whether a candidate will win an election. Robinhood’s presidential election event contracts will begin rolling out to a limited number of customers today. Customers must apply and meet certain criteria to be approved for a RHD account, including being a U.S. citizen and more. Once approved, customers will be able to trade based on their prediction for “who will win the 2024 presidential election.” There will be two contracts to choose from–one for Kamala Harris and one for Donald Trump.

We’ve heard from our customers that having access to the market in real time is essential – it’s why, for example, we launched 24/5 trading and recently announced our plans to launch futures trading in the coming months. We believe event contracts give people a tool to engage in real-time decision-making, unlocking a new asset class that democratizes access to events as they unfold. 

To learn more about presidential election markets visit go.robinhood.com/election and our Help Center.

https://newsroom.aboutrobinhood.com/introducing-the-presidential-election-market/

 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29183

Posted
Posted
On 10/24/2024 at 8:34 PM, bluto said:

I just played the derivative market by shorting DJT with Nov 8 puts. 

how's your week looking?

 

On 10/25/2024 at 2:01 AM, henrygandorf said:

the chances to 6-7x your $ are on the dem ec ranges. on dems 35-64 and 65-104 for 12-14c a pop. 

not much movement except down a bit, so of course i bought more. 

turning 73 into 100 is great but with the fees you’re not clearing much. 

i've been slowly increasing my shares of pretty much everything on the kamala side. yes, she's not going to win by 105-154, but for 4c, it's worth it. not because it'll cash, but because on tues, if things are looking good, those will triple. not only does pi lean right, but it overreacts harder than any site i've seen.

i have about 9000 shares total, and tues will be a shitshow. i'm taking a personal day.

also, for anyone wondering, i started buying these a couple of weeks ago, and like i said in my post ^ i was in the red every day. until last night. things are shifting. let's fucking go.

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Js1

Js1 85161

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Posted
23 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

not only does pi lean right, but it overreacts harder than any site i've seen.

That shit was WILD on election night/week 2020 lol. And the overreactions were awesome 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29183

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That shit was WILD on election night/week 2020 lol. And the overreactions were awesome 

a few of us were on a whatsapp group, and were buying for 40c, selling for 60c, then buying again at 40c over and over.

depending on early numbers from fl, nc, pa, mi, etc, i'm expecting a lot of green numbers. then once some reality sets in on fl/oh, things will settle. it'll be a roller coaster but i'm happy with my current positions. up to 10k shares now.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23404

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52 minutes ago, Red Five said:

No on Trump winning Georgia is probably the best bet on the board now.

image.png.e0f4131ae30ddde83131766e897fe26c.png

I don't love anything about that one other than the odds. I think that I would rather be in on a coin flip in WI. 

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Blotto

Blotto 23460

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Posted

I have all my money on predictit tied up on a Kamala victory and some longshot EC margin of victory bets. But I do have some money in Kalshi that I deposited a few months ago to fuck around with their financial market props. I may throw some at GA and a small bet on Iowa just in case Selzer nails another one.  4X return on her track record seems worthy of some action. Anything else stand out to you guys, I got like $350 to burn invest.

image.png.24d83b93b05c65cc5949568e58c537b5.png

https://kalshi.com/events/elections

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PhillyD

PhillyD 1257

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Posted
1 hour ago, Blotto said:

I have all my money on predictit tied up on a Kamala victory and some longshot EC margin of victory bets. But I do have some money in Kalshi that I deposited a few months ago to fuck around with their financial market props. I may throw some at GA and a small bet on Iowa just in case Selzer nails another one.  4X return on her track record seems worthy of some action. Anything else stand out to you guys, I got like $350 to burn invest.

image.png.24d83b93b05c65cc5949568e58c537b5.png

https://kalshi.com/events/elections

 
Yes
$100 → $123
No
$100 → $476
$148,710
 

 

I am not on Kalshi, but no on Trump flipping a Biden state looks strong to me.

 

 

 

 

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