"Easy" Money Come Election Day (Prediction Market Gambling)

[Anastasis 23454]

Figures a better place than the gambling board.  Let's see how much "easy" money with can identify.

I am on the following positions:

Who will control House after 2018?  Currently Dem YES @ 0.69 and GOP NO @ 0.65.  I say back the truck up on both.

Balance of power in Congress after midterms.  I am playing NO on GOP HOUSE/GOP SENATE.  Currently trading @ 0.65.

Will Manchin be re-elected? Currently YES @ 0.77.

And a stretch, but I think that the odds are worth it. Will Ted Cruz be elected? No @ 0.23.  Will look to exit if there is any bump based on early returns.

Trump impeachment in first terms. YES @ 0.41.  Think this bumps after the Dems take the house and/or when the Mueller report is issued.

 

Any other plays for today/tomorrow?  Obviously I am hosed if the Dem's don't take the House, but I don't see that happening.   

[Nice Guy Eddie 13507]

Be quick to act if something unexpected happens.  I recall election night 2016, Hillary was the gambling favorite until it was becoming apparent she was losing too late in a few states.  The betting moved in very quickly that made Trump the overwhelming favorite.  It seemed to happen within minutes.   

[Anastasis 23454]

I've added Kevin McCarthy as NO for next speaker @ 0.76.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13507]

Are you using PredictIt, or one of the sports books?  I may need to look into these tonight.

[Continental Op 3934]

What site is all of this happening on? Dems taking the House and Cruz winning look like no brainers to me

[Anastasis 23454]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Are you using PredictIt, or one of the sports books?  I may need to look into these tonight.

PredictIt.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

37 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Any other plays for today/tomorrow?

Dems take Senate if it's under .20 cents 

[Bozo_Casanova 26429]

6 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I've added Kevin McCarthy as NO for next speaker @ 0.76.

Since Kevin McCarthy is almost certainly the speaker if the GOP wins, it seems like there's a good parley available there. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13507]

What is the experience of cashing out from PredictIt?  I know some sportsbooks only allow it above a certain amount, basically screwing small time gamblers.  And they don't always advertise the minimum until you want to cash out.

[Anastasis 23454]

Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

What is the experience of cashing out from PredictIt?  I know some sportsbooks only allow it above a certain amount, basically screwing small time gamblers.  And they don't always advertise the minimum until you want to cash out.

They rape you with a 5% fee. 

[Anastasis 23454]

3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Dems take Senate if it's under .20 cents 

 

@ 0.17.

 

Better play if you want that bet is to just go all in on Dem House and Dem Senate Congressional control @ 0.13. 

 

 

Edited November 5, 2018 by Anastasis

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

7 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Better play if you want that bet is to just go all in on Dem House and Dem Senate Congressional control @ 0.13. 

Was coming to post that.  I’d take a flyer on that. 

[zork 629]

35 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Was coming to post that.  I’d take a flyer on that. 

Because the Russians are no longer the influence or because they want the D's to win this time?

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Just now, zork said:

Because the Russians are no longer the influence or because they want the D's to win this time?

Probably both. 

[Mack Tripper 696]

Question for @Anastasis or anyone else with experience with PredictIt.  In a market for an event with one outcome or another, such as which party will control the House, why is there an option to buy "yes" and "no" for both outcomes? If I think the Dems will win, I can buy a Yes for Dems or a No for GOP, but those identical outcomes aren't priced the same.  What's that about?

Edited November 5, 2018 by Mack Tripper

[Anastasis 23454]

Not really sure man. Shares are sold in YES/NO pair, such that the sum of the yes and no prices should be $1 or very close for a given outcome.  I would assume that the difference between the Dem contract and the GOP contract reflects some market inefficiency. But it creates some arbitrage opportunities for people with bigger brains than mine. 

[SimonBolivar 10957]

I put $300 on Cruz @ $.78. I figure that I'd gladly pay $300 for a Beto win or Cruz can buy me a nice dinner.

[Hank Kingsley 20903]

I have a three team parlay of 

Cruz winning Senate seat (-180)

Gillum winning Florida Governor's race (-140)

Mother making Pence gargle Trump's balls during State of Union Address (-120)

 

Will have to wait a while for it to cash but I'm patient. 

 

[Anastasis 23454]

19 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

I put $300 on Cruz @ $.78. I figure that I'd gladly pay $300 for a Beto win or Cruz can buy me a nice dinner.

I like the emotional hedging strategy. 

[Mack Tripper 696]

I did that during Mack's long losing streak to OU. 

[Anastasis 23454]

Just now, Mack Tripper said:

I did that during Mack's long losing streak to OU. 

[GopherRock 1765]

5 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Be quick to act if something unexpected happens.  I recall election night 2016, Hillary was the gambling favorite until it was becoming apparent she was losing too late in a few states.  The betting moved in very quickly that made Trump the overwhelming favorite.  It seemed to happen within minutes.   

This.

Paddy Power was very late to move the number on Brexit night as well. 

If you're really out of your mind, a three-team parlay of Heitkamp, Beto, and Breseden pays 87:1

[ChiTownDoc 21139]

2 hours ago, Mack Tripper said:

I did that during Mack's long losing streak to OU. 

I bet Texas money line every year.  Either lose $500 happily or have a fun night out even as the damn loser.  I’m a fucking Sooner.  Apologies.   

[TexasMan 10891]

Just put a finsky on Beto to win +500 on 5dimes (Cruz -900)

[conVINCEd 21469]

As someone who only occasionally gambles on sports, this seems remarkably shady to me.  Seems like a lot of potential for folks with inside info to profit without much recourse.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

7 hours ago, conVINCEd said:

As someone who only occasionally gambles on sports, this seems remarkably shady to me.  Seems like a lot of potential for folks with inside info to profit without much recourse.

It’s hard to think of things more shady than online betting on US politics.  However, the lines seem to be decent predictors.

[Mole 4330]

25 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

It’s hard to think of things more shady than online betting on US politics.  However, the lines seem to be decent predictors.

I’d say American politics are shadier.

[Anastasis 23454]

What’s shady are the lines on number of tweets. Crazy odds could be easily manipulated. 

[GopherRock 1765]

9 hours ago, conVINCEd said:

As someone who only occasionally gambles on sports, this seems remarkably shady to me.  Seems like a lot of potential for folks with inside info to profit without much recourse.

That is why it is illegal for American books to take action on the election. All the betting stuff you see is from offshore and European books. 

[Anastasis 23454]

Predict it gets around it by having it certified as a market, not gambling. Feels like gambling to me. 

[ChiTownDoc 21139]

I hit Manchin -400 and Dem House -220 last week.

Laying heavy chalk but I saw no value w dogs they listed.  My book didnt offer Beto  or I’d have hit that for a unit.    

 

[Mack Tripper 696]

22 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Better play if you want that bet is to just go all in on Dem House and Dem Senate Congressional control @ 0.13. 

 

I took a flyer on this yesterday 

[Anastasis 23454]

Volume starting to flow in now.

[zork 629]

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

Volume starting to flow in now.

how so, or where is it flowing?

[Ted Lange 16082]

I’m gonna bottle my liberal tears tonight when Beto loses, then sell it on eBay.   Use that cash to get some action on Trump 2020 

profit. 

[Anastasis 23454]

35 minutes ago, zork said:

how so, or where is it flowing?

This is the who controls house market. Volume is the bars. 

[Anastasis 23454]

Heres the Cruz market, 24h

 

[Anastasis 23454]

More easy money: Texas Senate margin of victory: NO on 12+% 0.90

And throwing a small bone at 0-2 and 2-4. 

[zork 629]

lots of volume, but it doesn't seem to be much movement.   Both sides bets, but more because it is final time to get them in and near instant results?

[Continental Op 3934]

I bought:

--Cruz reelected at .79

--Dem House/GOP Senate at .68

--53 GOP Senators at .20

Edited November 7, 2018 by Continental Op

[Anastasis 23454]

All markets based in Dems controlling the house are moving big. 

[Anastasis 23454]

Need another Beto district to come in and it’s time to cash out that position. 

[Continental Op 3934]

Ted Cruz reelected going up and Dem House/GOP senate going down makes NO sense to me.  Can someone explain? 

[Anastasis 23454]

19 minutes ago, Continental Op said:

Ted Cruz reelected going up and Dem House/GOP senate going down makes NO sense to me.  Can someone explain? 

All the dem house markets are moving down.  

 

And predictit is only slowing filling orders right now. 

[Anastasis 23454]

Cashed out manchin. Rolling it in to dem house plays. Also reducing no Cruz position on bumps. Oh. And moving to bourbon. 

Edited November 7, 2018 by Anastasis

[Thetexashammer 1062]

Thoughts on betting that the Pubs keep the House? 538 keeps moving their odds. Now showing 46%.

[Continental Op 3934]

Yup... I am going full steam into the D House/R Senate iceberg.  Can't seem to get my order filled at 55 though. 

[Anastasis 23454]

11 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

Thoughts on betting that the Pubs keep the House? 538 keeps moving their odds. Now showing 46%.

Wouldn’t touch it, but I got a few thousand on the other side of that bet at this point so take it for nonsense. 

Edited November 7, 2018 by Anastasis

[Thetexashammer 1062]

Just now, Anastasis said:

Wouldn’t touch it, but I got a few thousand on the other side of that bet at this point. 

It isn't what I expected but that only play I am making here is to find the surprises and be the first to move. It would be a surprise. 538 still hovering around 45%. There's plenty of easy money if you are willing to leverage. 

[Anastasis 23454]

Cashed out NO on 12 plus Texas senate soreadnfor easiest 8% in history of forever.