"Easy" Money Come Election Day (Prediction Market Gambling)

[Wulaw Horn 19073]

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

LOL my portfolio is now worth less today than it was on Thursday when PA was still counting.

That’s amazing. Not unbelievable. Just amazing. 

[Anastasis 23474]

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

I was debating on selling my "Biden wins MI" when it was 95 cents over the weekend. Now its 89.  Biden is winning by 2.5% or 150K votes.  How is this not 99 cents?

I can understand that maybe GA could flip back red, and maybe even AZ but I think Biden hangs on.  But Michigan? Delusional people that are keeping me from my money.

[BradInATX 9208]

34 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I was debating on selling my "Biden wins MI" when it was 95 cents over the weekend. Now its 89.  Biden is winning by 2.5% or 150K votes.  How is this not 99 cents?

I can understand that maybe GA could flip back red, and maybe even AZ but I think Biden hangs on.  But Michigan? Delusional people that are keeping me from my money.

 

I cashed out most of my individual state bets last week in the mid-90s to get them into better parks, like "Woman Vice President" which I got in the high 80s. It's now in the low 80s. lulz.
 

It's fine though, I'll let it sit until January if need be.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

In my regret of reading some PI comments, I read about the strategy of buying into more bets at 1 share each so you lock in a trader spot.  One reason these state bets are in the 80s right now is that reasonable buyers can't get in. Its Trump voters borrowing more from their grandma to increase their total and then people like me that are maxed out and want high 90s or 100.

Some people in the comments are saying that if you buy 1 share (position) early, you're always allowed to buy more. Is that true?

[BradInATX 9208]

Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

In my regret of reading some PI comments, I read about the strategy of buying into more bets at 1 share each so you lock in a trader spot.  One reason these state bets are in the 80s right now is that reasonable buyers can't get in. Its Trump voters borrowing more from their grandma to increase their total and then people like me that are maxed out and want high 90s or 100.

Some people in the comments are saying that if you buy 1 share (position) early, you're always allowed to buy more. Is that true?

 

One of my states I had bought a small early position, and someone on this thread said they were locked out of the same bet. I was able to add to my position later. So I believe that's true. 

[BradInATX 9208]

That's good to know about the 1 share thing, though.

let's fuckin go,  Jill Stein!

[henrygandorf 29191]

3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

One of my states I had bought a small early position, and someone on this thread said they were locked out of the same bet. I was able to add to my position later. So I believe that's true. 

it sounds right.  i was texting with a buddy who was able to add on when i couldn't buy anything.  smart to buy 1 share, lesson learned.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

That's good to know about the 1 share thing, though.

let's fuckin go,  Jill Stein!

When 80 year old Trump is rejected by the GOP, maybe he looks to the Green Party 

[WBT 20580]

17 hours ago, BradInATX said:

That's good to know about the 1 share thing, though.

let's fuckin go,  Jill Stein!

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

PredictIt finally settled the bet whether Trump would win the popular vote or not. spoiler alert: he didn't. Trumpers were so adamant that Trump really win the popular vote, the bet was only at 92 cents, 4 weeks after the election, when they settled it.  People are threatening to sue over the settlement.

Some of the states are still at 89-93. Trump fans are counting on the Kraken, ACB and the Easter Bunny to make them all rich on PI.

[Anastasis 23474]

20 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Trumpers were so adamant that Trump really win the popular vote, the bet was only at 92 cents, 4 weeks after the election, when they settled it.

Saw that too when I got my settlement. Craziest thing I have ever seen on that site.  All these markets should be at 99, and no less than 97 or so under any circumstance.  Wish I had known about the 1 cent placeholder thing and I would cycle all of these positions for nickles and dimes.   

[Anastasis 23474]

Found one still open @ 0.88

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5963/Will-the-2020-MA-Democratic-primary-winner-win-the-presidency

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Found one still open @ 0.88

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5963/Will-the-2020-MA-Democratic-primary-winner-win-the-presidency

 

I've resigned myself to thinking that some of these bets won't pay off until the Inauguration.  I would be fine selling at 98 or 99 but Trump bettors won't let it get that high, and the rest of us know its better to hold off to earn a final 10%. Even waiting 2 months for it.

I was slightly surprised when they paid off the popular vote.

The next idea is to figure out what the delusional people will back next. And I don't mean generic Trump voters but the ones that are stating Trump won CA.

[BradInATX 9208]

4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I've resigned myself to thinking that some of these bets won't pay off until the Inauguration.  I would be fine selling at 98 or 99 but Trump bettors won't let it get that high, and the rest of us know its better to hold off to earn a final 10%. Even waiting 2 months for it.

I was slightly surprised when they paid off the popular vote.

The next idea is to figure out what the delusional people will back next. And I don't mean generic Trump voters but the ones that are stating Trump won CA.

10% in 2 months is 60% annual. Who needs #stonks with returns like those!

Rolled the free cash from the popular vote bet into that MA winner winning presidency bet at 87. Good lookin' out, @Anastasis.

[Anastasis 23474]

3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Rolled the free cash from the popular vote bet into that MA winner winning presidency bet at 87.

This is how it's done.

2020. Fuck this year all together, but Christmas is brought to you by idiots easily parted from their money. 

[BradInATX 9208]

Wish it was election year every year!

Any of you guys messing with the GA specials? I feel like really getting into the polling data (and adjusting for 2016 error) helped me hit some home runs in the general. Won't have any of that to work with for those. But it feels like a 1-3% win for both R candidates to me, which can be covered for .26. Not sure if I'll jump in, I don't have anything liquid in PI and I don't really feel like depositing more. 

You weren't lying Anastasis, lmao. This thread is high entertainment value:

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5554

Lots of people threatening to sue and a few who clearly put a bunch of money in without understanding how PredictIt even works, who are wondering where their money went. You hate to see it.

 

 

Edited November 25, 2020 by BradInATX

[Bruh Man 3160]

I just got this message from oddsmakers.com. They are refunding Trump bettors smdh....

 

Quote

The United States Presidential Election has yet to be officially decided. 

In the spirit of Thanksgiving, unity and celebrating this glorious NFL weekend, MyBookie is paying out wagers on the Biden election outcome as a win.

Trump Bettors DO NOT CONCEDE your cash wagers, we are refunding your bet as Free Play with a 3x Rollover. Should Donald Trump emerge victorious, your wagers will be paid in full.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING AND GOD BLESS AMERICA

Thank you for choosing to Bet With the Best
David Strauss
Head Oddsmaker
 

 

[Anastasis 23474]

Lol. WTF. 

[StassneyHorn 6580]

I thought Dave Portnoy and Barstool exposed MyBookie as frauds a year and a half ago with the rollovers. People still use it?

• What is a rollover requirement?

  A rollover is an industry-standard wagering requirement that you must meet before your funds are available for payout. Most MyBookie bonuses come attached to a rollover requirement.

  If you claim a bonus, you must roll over, or wager, your bonus funds and the initial deposit amount before you are eligible for a payout. Sometimes you must roll over those funds multiple times. For sportsbook bonuses awarded on deposits, typical rollover requirements vary from 3x to 10x based on your deposit amount.

  If your bonus requires a 3x rollover, you must wager the full amount of your deposit and bonus at least three times before you can request a payout.

Edited November 29, 2020 by StassneyHorn

[Red Five 40859]

There are six states sitting between .89 and .91 for Biden on predictit. Biden winning the election is at .90. Insanity. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

 

[Bruh Man 3160]

1 hour ago, Red Five said:

There are six states sitting between .89 and .91 for Biden on predictit. Biden winning the election is at .90. Insanity. 

When you considering all the fees is this still worth it?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

1 minute ago, Bruh Man said:

When you considering all the fees is this still worth it?

You can still earn about 5% with that even if you are depositing money.  10% if the money is already on the site. Not get-rich but hell of a lot better than a savings account.

[henrygandorf 29191]

they're sitting where they are because the action that's in is in.  everyone is either blocked or maxed.

[Anastasis 23474]

7 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

they're sitting where they are because the action that's in is in.  everyone is either blocked or maxed.

This. The trader limits are creating distorted market situations.

[Red Five 40859]

Dumb question but then why are they fluctuating? 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

31 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Dumb question but then why are they fluctuating? 

There are some buys/sells. I assume some are selling to earn a few dollars and then maybe buying back if it drops.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

I slightly understand why PI is holding off on settling the bets given there are minuscule chances that a court or state legislature somehow changes a states vote. But they should at least provide guidance on how or when they will settle.  The popular vote settle seemed to come out of the blue and perhaps signaled a start to wrap up unsettled bets but nope. Back to the same.

PI is ignoring the state certifications. I imagine they could ignore the electoral college given that there’s an argument that SCOTUS could step in as late as the inauguration. 

[Red Five 40859]

 

[Anastasis 23474]

I am fully invested in other markets, but if you want an open market to play Biden here are all the cabinet positions. 

https://www.predictit.org/markets/3/US-Government

Pompeo NO @ 0.86 for example right now. 

Market rules below.  Am I missing something? No way Biden let's any of these guys serve a day after inauguration day right?

 

 

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of State subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of State be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.

Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.

PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.

End Date: 02/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)

Edited November 30, 2020 by Anastasis

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

35 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I am fully invested in other markets, but if you want an open market to play Biden here are all the cabinet positions. 

https://www.predictit.org/markets/3/US-Government

Pompeo NO @ 0.86 for example right now. 

Market rules below.  Am I missing something? No way Biden let's any of these guys serve a day after inauguration day right?

 

 

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of State subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of State be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.

Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.

PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.

End Date: 02/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)

Blinken for Yes is 81. I know that everyone rightfully believes McConnell is a complete obstructionist but it would be a stretch if he refuses to allow Biden to have his cabinet confirmed by mid-Feb. But Pompeo for No at 86 is more of a sure thing.

 

[Bruh Man 3160]

3 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Blinken for Yes is 81. I know that everyone rightfully believes McConnell is a complete obstructionist but it would be a stretch if he refuses to allow Biden to have his cabinet confirmed by mid-Feb. But Pompeo for No at 86 is more of a sure thing.

 

Does "acting role" count? If so, I'm in. 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

10 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

Does "acting role" count? If so, I'm in. 

 

Looks like it has to be a confirmation by Feb 15th. If no one is confirmed by them, then all No contracts win.  I don't think Acting SoS would count, and even then I don't think Blinken would be considered Acting. Don't they usually have a senior lifer fill Acting Roles while confirmations are taking place?

[Bruh Man 3160]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Looks like it has to be a confirmation by Feb 15th. If no one is confirmed by them, then all No contracts win.  I don't think Acting SoS would count, and even then I don't think Blinken would be considered Acting. Don't they usually have a senior lifer fill Acting Roles while confirmations are taking place?

Yeah you're right. That timeline is tricky. I think he'll get confirmed, but Moscow Mitch is going to drag everything.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

What's BS about PredictIt holding onto the state winner bets is that the bets are worded as the "winner of the popular vote in (name of state)."  Even if the Michigan state legislature overrides the popular vote for the EC, it doesn't change the fact that Biden has been certified as the winner of the popular vote. Short of a judge deciding to throw ballots away, it's a done deal.

[henrygandorf 29191]

seems like a lot of you guys wait for the contracts to "pay out".  i almost never do this.  everything on there is so time sensitive, i always find it better to take my winnings and put it somewhere else to start making money.  i sold most of my states on election night for .90-.92 so i could use that cash.

the only thing i'm waiting on now is dem senate gain.

[BradInATX 9208]

1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

seems like a lot of you guys wait for the contracts to "pay out".  i almost never do this.  everything on there is so time sensitive, i always find it better to take my winnings and put it somewhere else to start making money.  i sold most of my states on election night for .90-.92 so i could use that cash.

the only thing i'm waiting on now is dem senate gain.

`There's nothing else to move money into, so no point in selling at 10% less than what I'll get in January.

 

I don't really have a problem with PredictIt holding on to some of these bets for a bit, even if a bit arbitrary. We all know they'll pay out, but they've got the horde of angry Trumpsters that lost their rent money betting on the sure thing Trump re-election to deal with. They're already threatening to sue because PredictIt closed the popular vote bet, because people legitimately think Trump is going to get 8 million votes back.

Edited December 1, 2020 by BradInATX

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

9 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

seems like a lot of you guys wait for the contracts to "pay out".  i almost never do this.  everything on there is so time sensitive, i always find it better to take my winnings and put it somewhere else to start making money.  i sold most of my states on election night for .90-.92 so i could use that cash.

the only thing i'm waiting on now is dem senate gain.

Some of these bets I made solely for a 10-15% gain so selling them at 90 is pointless. I agree that if I had bought Michigan at 50, then I'm ok with a 90 sale. 

I can wait another 6 weeks to get paid. This isn't rent money. But it seems silly that they're enabling the Trumpers and not paying off even when the terms of the settlement are met, IMO.

[Anastasis 23474]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Some of these bets I made solely for a 10-15% gain so selling them at 90 is pointless. I agree that if I had bought Michigan at 50, then I'm ok with a 90 sale. 

I can wait another 6 weeks to get paid. This isn't rent money. But it seems silly that they're enabling the Trumpers and not paying off even when the terms of the settlement are met, IMO.

I agree. I was maxed on party to win presidency @ .60 D yes, and 0.52 R No.  Those are at 89 and 85 now. I'm holding out for my 26 cents combined on those.  I sold most of my other stuff, and spread around some sure bets that I will just wait to pay out @ .10-15.  The only real markets I see where big money is to be made are some of the margin of victory markets, and the cabinet appointment markets.  But some of those feel like crap shoots to me versus just locking in free money by waiting a month. 

 

 

[henrygandorf 29191]

i definitely see your (collective) point, i guess i just use it differently.  i was trying to stay nimble and have fun like a political day trader.  i was hopping out on states at .92 and then hopping onto other shit at .80, selling at .86, and so on.  i was determined not to make election deposits, so i had to have my money working hard during the 10-12 day window.  i didn't really have any "park my money here for 6 weeks" bets, even though it's an eventual solid return.

i still think both dems lose in georgia, so i've been on dems +1 in senate seats for a little while.  it's been hanging in the low to mid .50's but i think will creep up as the debates happen and election day gets closer.

[BradInATX 9208]

9 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i definitely see your (collective) point, i guess i just use it differently.  i was trying to stay nimble and have fun like a political day trader.  i was hopping out on states at .92 and then hopping onto other shit at .80, selling at .86, and so on.  i was determined not to make election deposits, so i had to have my money working hard during the 10-12 day window.  i didn't really have any "park my money here for 6 weeks" bets, even though it's an eventual solid return.

i still think both dems lose in georgia, so i've been on dems +1 in senate seats for a little while.  it's been hanging in the low to mid .50's but i think will creep up as the debates happen and election day gets closer.

 

I think most of us were hopping around as well. I sold a bunch of positions in the 80s to move to positions with bigger windows.  I'm just sort of at the end of the line in terms of bets. I don't see any Georgia bets that stand out to me. Although I think your bet is right. I also just don't really want to bet on something  I'm rooting against.

[henrygandorf 29191]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

 

I think most of us were hopping around as well. I sold a bunch of positions in the 80s to move to positions with bigger windows.  I'm just sort of at the end of the line in terms of bets. I don't see any Georgia bets that stand out to me. Although I think your bet is right. I also just don't really want to bet on something  I'm rooting against.

part of it was emotional hedge.  another part was i figured the trumpy lean of the site would kick that number into the 60's at least (i'm in at $0.54).  but i guess that would require trumpers, who also populate predictit, to do math.  not a safe assumption on my part.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

Strange email from PI today, that I assume went to all PI users:

Quote

...

In light of these ongoing disputes, PredictIt currently anticipates that we will begin settling markets on individual state results in accordance with each market’s rules only after electors have cast their votes on Dec. 14, unless in our view there is a conclusive outcome before then.

I think its nice that they acknowledge an understanding the confusion but I read this quote that they are either going to resolve the bets AFTER Dec. 14th or before. Thanks. That doesn't tell us much. 

Here is my guess: If SCOTUS rejects this latest state AG suit, and the EC votes as expected, I think the state bets are settled on Monday including ones that rely on the state bets to be resolved first. At least the ones stating the winner is based on the popular vote of each state. If SCOTUS signals a potential to even listen to hearing more about overturning a state, these bets will drag on.

Bets that imply who is President on Jan 20th may drag on. 

 

[orangecat92 306]

Ready to dip my toe into the water.  I think I need to pick something that has a definite ending date....looking at composition of senate and house...closing date Jan. 21, dem. House, repub. senate.....67 cents....but trading just got suspended,  maintenance...or betting God’s are saying don’t do it...ha!

so, latest offer is actually  68 cents? give or take...my theory is trump haters don’t have orange meany to vote against, and at least one seat reverts back to red...

one ? Dem house is a guarantee, so why 68? Shouldn’t it be higher?  Iow, the chances of dem. Winning both seats has got to be very slim.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

I jumped into Trump resigning for 14. I don’t know if I believe that he will, but I believe that there will be more talk of it because of a Pence pardon of Trump.

and if it somehow looks like the pardon will happen, a 7x return isn’t bad.

[Anastasis 23474]

55 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I jumped into Trump resigning for 14. I don’t know if I believe that he will, but I believe that there will be more talk of it because of a Pence pardon of Trump.

and if it somehow looks like the pardon will happen, a 7x return isn’t bad.

Might throw some winnings at that market just for the sweat. Betting on a narcissist to do narcissist things doesn’t feel like a long shot.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

I’ve been thinking about a missed opportunity that someone mentioned in the PI comments. I’ve been sitting on money waiting for Biden to win these last states. And I’m happy to win 5-10%.  Better than a savings account.

but others have been playing the trump side for big, quick wins. Say WI jumped to 93 the other week after a recount.  Betting trump was basically 7. Then we saw Biden slowly drop back to 88, so trump was 12. If you played the Trump side, that was a 70% gain.  Slightly better than my 10% gain.

The risk of this strategy is if the bet unexpectedly settles and you lose 100%. I wouldn’t recommend this strategy today for the state bets unless you have a strong stomach for risk.  But if you see Trump at 2 for WI, you can double up if it does to 4. 

[BradInATX 9208]

My Nevada bet settled, but Wisconsin still pending. I wonder what PredictIt thinks the difference is. Doesn't matter much to me, but it's strange. The comments are pretty hilarious. A bunch of Trump people that think they're going to win via Kraken. Then a few people who were just trading margins (buying Republican at 5 cents and selling at 6 or whatever) who got screwed by a sudden settlements. Which is also funny. There are better places to make margin plays and you knew the rules and risk.
 

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5601

Edited December 17, 2020 by BradInATX

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

13 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

My Nevada bet settled, but Wisconsin still pending. I wonder what PredictIt thinks the difference is. Doesn't matter much to me, but it's strange. The comments are pretty hilarious. A bunch of Trump people that think they're going to win via Kraken. Then a few people who were just trading margins (buying Republican at 5 cents and selling at 6 or whatever) who got screwed by a sudden settlements. Which is also funny. There are better places to make margin plays and you knew the rules and risk.
 

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5601

PI has said that there is a Wisconsin court case that is keeping the bet open. Something in regards that voters were not allowed to use COVID as an excuse to mail-in a ballot but its argued that many did. PI is claiming that case could change the race. They're waiting to learn more. I also saw a PI email that they plan to close many of the bets by early January when the EC votes are accepted by Congress.

I've put some money on Trump resigning during his 1st (only) term. Its around 11 right now. I don't know if I believe that he will but I think we will see speculation that he will , so that he can ensure a undisputable pardon from Pence. I'm not planning to ride this bet to settlement but would look to sell at 20 or 30.