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"Easy" Money Come Election Day (Prediction Market Gambling)

Anastasis

By Anastasis
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BradInATX
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Continental Op
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Is your wife pregnant?  If so, where did the ob/gyn go to med school?  Asking for a friend.  *calls bookie* 

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  • 2 weeks later...
henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29191

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is anybody on this roller coaster with me today?

already been buying and selling 3/4/5/6 states objecting.  volatile as hell but profitable and somewhat predictable.

the states are alphabetical, so once georgia gets objected, you're gonna see some serious shit (michigan, nevada, nm will come next, and i don't think anyone will object), then it'll be pa, then probably no more.  wisconsin is a possible wildcard, but will be pointless at that point.

so yes, my opinion - it will be 3 states.  buy the shit out of 4/5/6/7+ right now.  once georgia gets objected to, sell it all and buy 3.

so far so good on this plan, i'm up $550 and wiped out the emotional hedge bet from last night x3.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

is anybody on this roller coaster with me today?

already been buying and selling 3/4/5/6 states objecting.  volatile as hell but profitable and somewhat predictable.

the states are alphabetical, so once georgia gets objected, you're gonna see some serious shit (michigan, nevada, nm will come next, and i don't think anyone will object), then it'll be pa, then probably no more.  wisconsin is a possible wildcard, but will be pointless at that point.

so yes, my opinion - it will be 3 states.  buy the shit out of 4/5/6/7+ right now.  once georgia gets objected to, sell it all and buy 3.

so far so good on this plan, i'm up $550 and wiped out the emotional hedge bet from last night x3.

tenor.gif

 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23474

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25 minutes ago, Chewy's Hairy Horn said:

Right there with you.

Looking to exit this ASAP. This is looking to settle based on the signatures on paper as submitted unless Cruz does something totally unexpected and withdrawals. Gonna be interesting. 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23474

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What am I missing on this one guys? I bought a share of NO to lock in ability to trade the market. Settlement rules below.  If Senate goes 50/50 it appears that all NO positions will pay out.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4353/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2020-election

Screenshot-2021-01-07-082859.jpg

 

 

Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 12/02/2020.

On January 21, 2021, the balance of power in the U.S. Congress shall reflect the characterization in the question, per the definitions listed below.

"Republican Senate" means 51 or more sitting U.S. Senators were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the Republican Party.

"Democratic Senate" means 51 or more sitting U.S. Senators were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the Democratic Party.

"Republican House" means 218 or more sitting U.S. Representatives were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the Republican Party.

"Democratic House" means 218 or more sitting U.S. Representatives were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the Democratic Party.

For purposes of this market, the Vice President, in the role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, will be counted as a sitting U.S. senator.

PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.

This Market may close prior to the end date, if/when PredictIt determines the above criteria have been met.

End Date: 01/21/2021 12:00 AM (ET)
 

Supplementary Comment(s)

 

Created On: 12/02/2020 9:35 AM (ET)

In response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that the outcome of this market is determined by the balance of power at the End Date, January 21, 2021 at 12:00 a.m. (ET).

In the event that neither party has 51 or more sitting Senators at that time, then neither party has Senate control as defined in the Rules, and all contracts will resolve as No.
 

 

Created On: 09/09/2020 2:53 PM (ET)

In response to trader inquiry: For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's or Representative's party affiliation shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23474

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3 minutes ago, Chewy's Hairy Horn said:

I think the concern is that the Georgia results won’t be certified by the end date. 

Ah, I see it is a total play on the certification of georgia seats.  What a fucked up market. I missed the fact that VP counts as sitting senator. 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23474

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2 hours ago, Chewy's Hairy Horn said:

Yeah, it’s another where the devil is in the details. Pretty much betting on Warnock being certified by the 20th.  Otherwise, it’s House D/Senate R.  Bought some B2 on the cheap hoping that it’ll pay out as we get closer. 

Dumb question amnesty.  What does B2 refer to?  I never picked up that nomenclature. 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29191

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yesterday was a success no doubt, but the trumper idiot coup probably cost me upwards of $2,000+ because my plan was working to fucking perfection.

the highlight was when i had 1000 shares of "one state" at $0.08 right before georgia announced their objection.  it went down to a penny, then shot back up after they said they didn't have a senator sign on.  i sold the lot at $0.23 before the smoke cleared and it settled back in around $0.09 leading up to hawley's nonsense.

the low point was having to sell off 2,500 shares of 4/5 during the storming of the castle for 25-50% of what i paid (which was low and a great buy at the time).

there was also a moment during the drama where i thought only 2 states would be objected to, so i bought 1000 shares, at $0.02, but then sold them for a dime.

sigh.

cashed out $950 and i assume i'm done for the season.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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So my maxed out Pompeo SoS NO bet, AKA the @Chewy's Hairy Horn bet, is at .98 now. I pulled all my other winnings out but I think this will be my fuckaround money.

Anyone see any decent bets to park money? I like "More than 9 SCOTUS Justices in 2021" NO at .90, but I'd like to see if I can find more than 10% annualized. Everything out there now is so long-term, it might not even outperform $SPY. And I don't want to tie all of it up for 11 months.

I'm eyeballing Yang for NYC mayor at 36 cents.

Edited by BradInATX
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Blotto

Blotto 23525

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I checked several weeks ago and I had completely forgotten I had money in PredictIt. I vaguely remember loading $500 for some action I was planning to take last year, and then never did. So that's like finding $500 in the washer. 

Because we live in world of idiots, I'm willing to bet that at some point little Don Huffines will do say or do something so galactically "regarded" that a lot of Republicans will start to consider him a legit candidate. It took me a few weeks to get this order filled, but I checked this morning and the last of my buys have cleared. $100 wagered on the stupidity of Texas Republicans. I have faith. 

 

image.png.0ceff98ebbd6e1cc5dd01d0acab13c37.png

I don't believe he has a chance in hell, so my plan is not to hold through the election. More of a gamble that between now and the election he builds some momentum and I can hopefully 3-4X my money. I guess $10K could contribute to a move out of state if needed. 

Edited by Blotto
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23474

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51 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I checked several weeks ago and I had completely forgotten I had money in PredictIt. I vaguely remember loading $500 for some action I was planning to take last year, and then never did. So that's like finding $500 in the washer. 

Because we live in world of idiots, I'm willing to bet that at some point little Don Huffines will do say or do something so galactically "regarded" that a lot of Republicans will start to consider him a legit candidate. It took me a few weeks to get this order filled, but I checked this morning and the last of my buys have cleared. $100 wagered on the stupidity of Texas Republicans. I have faith. 

 

image.png.0ceff98ebbd6e1cc5dd01d0acab13c37.png

I don't believe he has a chance in hell, so my plan is not to hold through the election. More of a gamble that between now and the election he builds some momentum and I can hopefully 3-4X my money. I guess $10K could contribute to a move out of state if needed. 

In for a few thousand shares on that.  Even West dropping out could make that move a few cents. 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23474

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Some markets of interest.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7760/Will-Vladimir-Putin-remain-president-of-Russia-through-2022

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7756/Will-Biden-meet-with-Putin-in-person-by-July-1

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7752/How-many-times-will-Biden-say-price-in-the-State-of-the-Union

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7702/Will-Anthony-Fauci-remain-NIAID-director-through-the-end-of-the-year

 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23474

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54 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Gotta think dotard odds are down tonight.  Ah, who am I kidding.

Not much movement at all, but you can't expect rational behavior in any market involving Trump.  That's why the money is easy. 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23474

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11 hours ago, trauma babe said:

I just assumed they were already based outside of the US. Really surprised they lasted here so long

They operate out of New Zealand and had a no-action letter from CFTC.  Not clear exactly in what way they violated the terms of that letter. 

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