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"Easy" Money Come Election Day (Prediction Market Gambling)

Anastasis

By Anastasis
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Is your wife pregnant?  If so, where did the ob/gyn go to med school?  Asking for a friend.  *calls bookie* 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23404

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On 4/20/2020 at 5:30 PM, Anastasis said:

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6663/What-will-be-the-popular-vote-margin-in-the-2020-presidential-election

Money to be made spreading across 1.5-3.0, 3.0-4.5, and 4.5-6.0 in my opinion. Would go heavy on 3 and 4.5 ranges. 

I think that there are some real value plays at even higher ranges now.  

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29183

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4 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election

At the end of March it was Trump .51, Biden .39.    Today it is Biden .55, Trump .46

 

Also some states that voted Trump in 2016

Democrat/GOP

PA 65/35

MI 69/31

NC 52/49

WI 61/41

AZ 62/41

FL 52/51

also i saw "trump wins any state he lost in 2016?"

yes - $0.34

no - $0.66

that should give people with knowledge of the electoral map an idea of where things currently stand.  fucking bleak.

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GopherRock

GopherRock 1765

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Which Senate race will have the smallest margin of victory? North Carolina at 12 cents seems like a steal. Also, not sure why Montana is also 12 cents. 

Democrat to win Kansas Senate is 27 cents. If Kobach wins the primar, this has serious buy-low sell-high potential.

If you're bargain hunting, Minnesota to vote blue at 76 cents, Arizona 62 cents, and Wisconsin 61 cents. Thank you for the discount. 

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Ted Lange

Ted Lange 16055

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On 6/7/2020 at 12:55 PM, Ted Lange said:

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election

At the end of March it was Trump .51, Biden .39.    Today it is Biden .55, Trump .46

 

Also some states that voted Trump in 2016

Democrat/GOP

PA 65/35

MI 69/31

NC 52/49

WI 61/41

AZ 62/41

FL 52/51

It’s now Biden .57 Trump .43

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23404

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3 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

It’s now Biden .57 Trump .43

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election

I am NO biden and NO trump in this market at the moment, but positioned in such as way that I break even if Biden wins and take it in the shorts if Trump wins. I am not selling my Biden NO position on off chance of a lotto ticket outcome if he strokes out before election day and gets replaced by somebody who beats trump. If I was new to the market I would go all in on Trump NO @ 0.57. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13419

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Some of these bets err predictions are almost based on whether you think the person will live. Biden receiving the Dem nomination is basically him staying healthy for 2 months.  You can earn 10% interest if that occurs. Or the reverse, you earn 10x if he dies or gets ill enough that he drops out.  Weird market.

 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23404

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2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Some of these bets err predictions are almost based on whether you think the person will live. Biden receiving the Dem nomination is basically him staying healthy for 2 months.  You can earn 10% interest if that occurs.

Yep, fees will eat in to that return, but that is correct.  There is also a spread between the price for Dem to win the presidency vs. Biden to win the presidency. 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23404

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Would like some thoughts on this market: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6663/What-will-be-the-popular-vote-margin-in-the-2020-presidential-election

Trump running terrible numbers, can biden do over 10.5% margin?  Spreading across 6-10.5% seems like the smart play, but I think that could do it.  Trump is going to mail it in.  

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gmr548

gmr548 16556

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Would like some thoughts on this market: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6663/What-will-be-the-popular-vote-margin-in-the-2020-presidential-election
Trump running terrible numbers, can biden do over 10.5% margin?  Spreading across 6-10.5% seems like the smart play, but I think that could do it.  Trump is going to mail it in.  
>10.5 seems like a stretch to me. This country's just so damn partisan right now.

At the same time, I actually think it's better value than spreading. If it's not within five points or so it's because the wheels really fell off.
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23404

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53 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Would love to get in on this. How many posters on here have gotten payouts? I know some gambling sites use initial promos to get people locked in for a bit with minimum bank amounts.

apologies if answered, went straight to last page.

Predictit is legit. They take a cut off the winnings and a cut of the withdrawal. They also sent you tax forms so you have to pay taxes on it. Haven’t withdrawn any money yes but I have no concerns about getting paid out. 

Edited by Anastasis
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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29183

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i've gotten into this out of boredom the last couple weeks.

as for the popular vote margin, or yes/no on popular vote, etc, i see it like this - these are not las vegas style futures bets.  these are spotting a number that is too low (or high), waiting for the market to correct itself, and then making a profit and moving onto the next one.  most everything i've done has been a 24 hour situation (or way less).

i bought tuberville the night before at $0.79 and sold on election day.  i bought and sold "kanye will not run in 2020" over the course of a few hours (apparently now the numbers flipped because he's actually trying to run).

i think when a big poll is coming out, there's some good action to be had right before or right after, but to me, this isn't about buying max shares of "trump popular vote - no" at $.80 and then waiting 4 months. 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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i've gotten into this out of boredom the last couple weeks.
as for the popular vote margin, or yes/no on popular vote, etc, i see it like this - these are not las vegas style futures bets.  these are spotting a number that is too low (or high), waiting for the market to correct itself, and then making a profit and moving onto the next one.  most everything i've done has been a 24 hour situation (or way less).
i bought tuberville the night before at $0.79 and sold on election day.  i bought and sold "kanye will not run in 2020" over the course of a few hours (apparently now the numbers flipped because he's actually trying to run).
i think when a big poll is coming out, there's some good action to be had right before or right after, but to me, this isn't about buying max shares of "trump popular vote - no" at $.80 and then waiting 4 months. 
I learned this lesson on Doug Jones vs the pedo. Never again.
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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29183

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also, in the case of the 10.5%, let's look at the numbers...

~130mm people voted for trump/clinton in 2016.  i think that number is closer to 140-150 this year.

if 150mm people vote, biden will have to win the pop vote 83mm-67mm to clear 10%.  of course, that means trump picking up 4mm votes from 2016, but it still seems like a longshot.

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6563

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Thanks guys, seen this topic and have heard about it quite a bit on Hard Factor podcast. Does it seem like the odds move slowly and have a bit of a lag? I’m approaching it with the thought process the vast majority of people on this are old white guys with money to lose so the odds don’t swing as quick as one may think. At the same time, I don’t think old white guys are online gambling. Any feedback on that? Think that hits the Lad Vegas futures that you may have been referring to.

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Anastasis

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5 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i've gotten into this out of boredom the last couple weeks.

as for the popular vote margin, or yes/no on popular vote, etc, i see it like this - these are not las vegas style futures bets.  these are spotting a number that is too low (or high), waiting for the market to correct itself, and then making a profit and moving onto the next one.  most everything i've done has been a 24 hour situation (or way less).

i bought tuberville the night before at $0.79 and sold on election day.  i bought and sold "kanye will not run in 2020" over the course of a few hours (apparently now the numbers flipped because he's actually trying to run).

i think when a big poll is coming out, there's some good action to be had right before or right after, but to me, this isn't about buying max shares of "trump popular vote - no" at $.80 and then waiting 4 months. 

These are all good points. I don’t mind letting some money sit if it is good for 20 cents. I’m always looking for a quick flip too, and some fliers. There are lots of opportunities on Election Day as returns come in and there are big swings, but beware that predictit will absolutely bog down orders on election night. 

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Anastasis

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4 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Thanks guys, seen this topic and have heard about it quite a bit on Hard Factor podcast. Does it seem like the odds move slowly and have a bit of a lag? I’m approaching it with the thought process the vast majority of people on this are old white guys with money to lose so the odds don’t swing as quick as one may think. At the same time, I don’t think old white guys are online gambling. Any feedback on that?

There are a lot of lines that are tilted trumpy. 

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Larry T. Spider

Larry T. Spider 1746

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I maxed out Biden on my sports betting site. It’s not a lock but the paths to a Trump victory are too few to justify the price. I started looking at predictit tonight. I see that you can get California for Biden for 95 cents. Why wouldn’t people just dump money they aren’t going to use for anything else in the short term on that and collect the “free money” in a couple of months? Biden is up by 32% in the polls there (duh). I’m guessing the answer is fees in getting your money off the site.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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8 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I'm surprised that PredictIt has Trump tightening the overall race over the past 4 weeks. Trump was at 39 cents in late July and now at 44, with Biden now at 58.

There are paths for Biden to lose this but I don't see it happening.

Supposedly Breitbart had a link on their site to predict it recently. Some kind of sponsorship or advertising thing. Trumpkins have invaded the site and made The comment sections of all the markets unbearable. Some Trumpkin moron named “ lance upper cut” is going to all of the swing markets and saying “50/50 soon”. These guys think they can swing the whole election to trump by manipulating a few markets. It’s a total joke.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13419

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11 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

I maxed out Biden on my sports betting site. It’s not a lock but the paths to a Trump victory are too few to justify the price. I started looking at predictit tonight. I see that you can get California for Biden for 95 cents. Why wouldn’t people just dump money they aren’t going to use for anything else in the short term on that and collect the “free money” in a couple of months? Biden is up by 32% in the polls there (duh). I’m guessing the answer is fees in getting your money off the site.

If you have money on PredictIt and you are planning to remove it anyway, buying Biden for CA would seem to allow you to cover your eventual fees to withdrawal. I wouldn't deposit new money to bet on CA.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13419

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1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

trump "no" on popular vote is the easiest long-term investment.

it's still at $0.79

Yep. If you have money on PredictIt and you are planning to remove it anyway, buying Biden for CA (.94 or .95) would seem to allow you to offset your eventual fees to withdrawal. I wouldn't deposit new money to bet on CA.

Other bets that seem like a sure thing:

  • Biden not dropping out by 11/1: $.85
  • Trump not winning the national vote: $.78
  • Trump losing any state that he won in '16: $.84

Outside of Biden dying in the next 2.5 months or a massive scandal, I don't see how these won't occur. Even then, they still might happen. Downside is that PredictIt charges 10% fee on profits and 5% on all withdrawals. So for the last item, say you bought 1000 contracts, won the bet and then withdrew the full amount, you would would have a 11.3% return ($95 profit on your $840 bet.) Not a bad return for a few months. 

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GopherRock

GopherRock 1765

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2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Yep. If you have money on PredictIt and you are planning to remove it anyway, buying Biden for CA (.94 or .95) would seem to allow you to offset your eventual fees to withdrawal. I wouldn't deposit new money to bet on CA.

Other bets that seem like a sure thing:

  • Biden not dropping out by 11/1: $.85
  • Trump not winning the national vote: $.78
  • Trump losing any state that he won in '16: $.84

Outside of Biden dying in the next 2.5 months or a massive scandal, I don't see how these won't occur. Even then, they still might happen. Downside is that PredictIt charges 10% fee on profits and 5% on all withdrawals. So for the last item, say you bought 1000 contracts, won the bet and then withdrew the full amount, you would would have a 11.3% return ($95 profit on your $840 bet.) Not a bad return for a few months. 

Unless something in my math is wrong, the breakeven point is 94 cents on a contract. I'm basing my calculations off an initial input of $100 instead of 1000 shares, but you'll have to buy at or below 81 cents and win to get enough profit to cover the vig.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23404

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34 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

Unless something in my math is wrong, the breakeven point is 94 cents on a contract. I'm basing my calculations off an initial input of $100 instead of 1000 shares, but you'll have to buy at or below 81 cents and win to get enough profit to cover the vig.

I think the math only works like that if you take the withdrawal hit. Unless you are putting money in to buy a market, and then pulling it out immediately, it always makes sense to take a win, even if it is only a few cents. Ex. max buy $850 @ 0.95 = 894 shares, pays out at $1 each if you let the market resolve.  That yields $44 in profit, PredictIt takes 4.40.  You are up ~$39.60.  Now if you pull that $889.60 out you get hit with a 5% fee =  44.48 and you net lose money.  But you only eat that fee if you withdrawal.  Let's say that you rinse repeat with another lock @ 0.95 (example current price of hillary clinton to run for POTUS market, lol) you make another $40. Your balance is now 929.20 and your withdrawal fee is 46.46, 882.74 returned to you.  You can make money nickle and dime-ing these markets as long as you are not just churning the withdrawal fees.   

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13419

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The .01-.05 wins are not smart unless your funds are sitting there unused and you don't want to place them on a more competitive bet. 

Another potential way to offset the withdrawal fee is to buy-in to PredictIt with a credit card with high rewards or a new credit card that you're trying to hit a promo reward. My BoA card pays me 2.62% back on charges. What I don't know is the withdrawal process and how I could avoid getting the credit card reward reversed.  

EDIT: Another plus of using PredictIt vs gambling sites is the ability to get out of a market easily. On gambling websites, you could buy the opposite side if you start to get nervous with your bet but that freezes even more money. It's nice to sell, potentially even when your bet looks even better but you want to get paid now.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23404

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9 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The .01-.05 wins are not smart unless your funds are sitting there unused and you don't want to place them on a more competitive bet. 

Another potential way to offset the withdrawal fee is to buy-in to PredictIt with a credit card with high rewards or a new credit card that you're trying to hit a promo reward. My BoA card pays me 2.62% back on charges. What I don't know is the withdrawal process and how I could avoid getting the credit card reward reversed.  

All wins are wins. I park otherwise undeployed money on nickle and dime bets.  I mentioned previously, but the markets are tilted decidedly trumpy.  You got a few cents to be made off stupid shit that is 5-10 cents away from reality. Good point about extracting some value from the rewards to offset the withdrawal fee. I don't know anything about withdrawals as I havent pulled money out of there yet. Looks like you can request ACH or check withdrawals. 

Edited by Anastasis
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Homercles

Homercles 10205

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Yeah the party winner vs the candidates makes more sense, and seems to reflect polling with less wild swings.  In addition it’s not full of nonstop Trump homers dumping useless comments in there or posting regarded memes.  The Breitbart timing was good for Trump in that market it seems, Biden took a jump up after Harris announcement but the the trolls seemed to rapidly expand, volume jumped and its back fluctuating between $0.10-$0.13 or so for Biden.
 

Do not read the comments in there if you want to have any faith in the general public.  It’s like Reddit was in 2016 where TheDonald clowns were spamming and using tricks to bump content to the front page everyday...back then I remember snickering thinking ‘haha yeah right’ and then being pissed off they were right.  Here’s hoping we don’t repeat that.   

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23366

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21 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Another plus of using PredictIt vs gambling sites is the ability to get out of a market easily.

I’m pretty sure this is how they legally claim not to be a gambling operation.  You’re not gambling, you’re “investing” in positions you can sell. Which is LOL, it’s totally gambling and so is the stock market. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23404

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14 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Who is behind PredictIt? A test of their financial health will be in November when people start to withdraw their winnings. that would be a bad time to learn its a ponzi scheme.

 

Victoria University.

3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I’m pretty sure this is how they legally claim not to be a gambling operation.  Your not gambling, you’re “investing” in positions you can sell. Which is LOL, it’s totally gambling and so is the stock market. 

The have a letter of no-action letter from some government entity.

It all feels like gambling to me. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13419

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Intrigued by the popular vote percentage prediction. Basically they split it into sections between GOP winning the popular to the Dems winning and each section covers 1.5%, with 2 catch-all options of >10.5% for each party. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6663/What-will-be-the-popular-vote-margin-in-the-2020-presidential-election

While I think Trump has some paths to EC victory, I just don't see how Biden doesn't grow on Hillary's popular vote percentage of 2.1%.

If you bought the 5 Dem contracts from 3.0% thru 10.5%, for $100 each, you're in for $500. When any of those win, even after the winners fee, you would minimally win $761 for a $261 or a 50% return.  Yes, there is a withdrawal fee of 5% at the end as well.  And if the race tightens or widens, you can sell off 1-2 of the contracts even for a loss.

talk me out of this or point out how my math is wrong.

 

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