Jump to content

"Easy" Money Come Election Day (Prediction Market Gambling)

Anastasis

By Anastasis
in Cloak Room

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 609
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

BradInATX
BradInATX
Anastasis
Anastasis
Continental Op
Continental Op

Is your wife pregnant?  If so, where did the ob/gyn go to med school?  Asking for a friend.  *calls bookie* 

Posted Images

Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

Posted
Posted

It’s just a guess, but I think people are buying GOP shares because they are GOP homers who are hoping there will be a trump bump. The comment section on all of those markets is disgusting, filled with losers who talk about Biden being a massive socialist.

when new polling comes out, they will probably have to backtrack because I doubt Trump receives a huge RNC bump.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • 3 weeks later...
Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,507

Posted
Posted

Some democrat sunshine pumpers have raised Doug Jones' chances. Republican (Tuberville) dropped from 91 to 87 yesterday.  You're not going to get rich but not a bad return for a ~2-3 month investment.

Other items that surprise me:

  • Trump winning the popular vote still at 20
  • But Dems (Biden) winning by more than 10.5% is at 15.  I really can't see Biden winning by that, at least today.
  • From above, that Biden will drop out at 10-11 by November.  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BradInATX

BradInATX 9,208

Posted
Posted

I slept too long on the Biden to win popular vote. Although it's basically free money. There's zero chance he doesn't win the raw vote count by at least a couple million.

This one seems like almost free money as well, betting "no" obviously. I can't find a single state that he has a reasonable chance to compete in. 

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6724/Will-Donald-Trump-win-any-state-he-lost-in-2016

 

The only gotcha seems to be Maine. The prop says that it's based on popular vote. Hillary won Maine's popular vote last time while they split the EVs. She only won by 22,000. So I guess Trump could plausibly win the vote there. That's literally his only chance for that prop to hit.

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,507

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I slept too long on the Biden to win popular vote. Although it's basically free money. There's zero chance he doesn't win the raw vote count by at least a couple million.

This one seems like almost free money as well, betting "no" obviously. I can't find a single state that he has a reasonable chance to compete in. 

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6724/Will-Donald-Trump-win-any-state-he-lost-in-2016

 

The only gotcha seems to be Maine. The prop says that it's based on popular vote. Hillary won Maine's popular vote last time while they split the EVs. She only won by 22,000. So I guess Trump could plausibly win the vote there. That's literally his only chance for that prop to hit.

 

Biden has been polling well in Maine. I wonder if NH could maybe flip to Trump given the relatively low number of voters. 

To be clear, I don't think NH will do this but just talking from viewpoint what state could potentially flip.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,507

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

Woman elected VP at 59 cents seems pretty undervalued.

This seems to go hand in hand with the POTUS win. Since they have "bet" limits, this is way to double up on Trump or Biden.  I imagine this was slightly higher before Pence was officially selected on the off chance Haley was chosen.

I took a big chance on the AK Senate race because the Dem nominee was fighting to be listed as an Ind on the ballot. The AK election office decided he would be listed Dem so my bet for an Ind to win is done.  I was getting big odds and I didn't put down much.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,507

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I like that "state lost" bet, as well as stacking the woman VP bet.  I am playing the POTUS election by stack multiple markets to increase exposure.   

My strategy has been to load up on what I think are easy bets with lower payouts. Arbitrage type of bet. 80-88 range.  But I want to start adding in more educated bets that will actually pay off.  If I end up making some bad bets, the overall worse case will be breaking even or a small win.

Now if Trump somehow pulls off a landslide, I'm screwed. If signs start to point that way, I might sell some contracts before the election.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Anastasis

Anastasis 23,454

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

My strategy has been to load up on what I think are easy bets with lower payouts. Arbitrage type of bet. 80-88 range.  But I want to start adding in more educated bets that will actually pay off.  If I end up making some bad bets, the overall worse case will be breaking even or a small win.

Now if Trump somehow pulls off a landslide, I'm screwed. If signs start to point that way, I might sell some contracts before the election.

Yeah, I like to skim sure things.  I will lose my ass if Trump wins, but I think that the chances of that happening are extraordinarily low barring some major shit hitting the fan, like Biden croaking. 

Edited by Anastasis
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Continental Op

Continental Op 3,934

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Degenerate Gardner said:

Even as a degenerate, betting on the outcome of the election rubs me the wrong way, like wagering whether your wife will survive childbirth. This is life and death. To each their own though.

Is your wife pregnant?  If so, where did the ob/gyn go to med school?  Asking for a friend.  *calls bookie* 

Edited by Continental Op
  • Haha 2
  • Fuck You 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Irieguy

Irieguy 1,059

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Anastasis said:

What is this fucking market:

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6852/Will-Nancy-Pelosi-become-Acting-US-President-on-January-20

 

I think Hannitty or Carlson were bringing this possibility up to fear monger. It’s such a small possibility that I forget the details. Basically the scenario would have to be nobody getting to 270 by January. It’s not happening. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bernorange

bernorange 8,359

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Anastasis said:

What is this fucking market:

 

6 hours ago, Irieguy said:

... I forget the details. Basically the scenario would have to be nobody getting to 270 by January. It’s not happening. 

I've seen some talk (one example below) that the mail in ballot clusterfuck (lawsuits, etc.) might not be fully resolved by 1/20/21.

Quote

...
But we might not know the actual outcome for days, weeks, or even months potentially…

Americans are already on guard that mail-in ballots, long lines at polling places, armies of lawyers and potential court orders could make this presidential election one of the most heavily contested and uncertain elections in our lifetimes.

It could be even more drawn-out and uncertain that the 2000 election between Bush and Gore, which was finally decided by the Supreme Court weeks after Election Day.

If you don’t think things can get even weirder and more uncertain than that, well, they can. I’m not predicting it’s going to happen, let me be clear, but we could even end up with President Pelosi. Here’s how:

The United States has a line-of-succession statute that dictates what happens if an election is undecided. The sitting President and Vice President leave office at noon on January 20, 2021 even if no winner has been decided.

In that case, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi becomes Acting President. But, that assumes Pelosi is named Speaker. What if House seats are also undecided because of mail-in ballots, legal challenges and close elections?

If enough House seats are not decided, there may not be a quorum in the House, which means that there would be no Speaker at all and still no Acting President.

Let’s hope that none of this happens and the outcome is resolved quickly with a legitimate winner all can agree on. The social unrest we’re seeing today could be child’s play next to the kind of unrest we’d see during a disputed election.

But, given the looming uncertainty, it’s impossible to rule out this kind of chaotic scenario. And the way things have gone this year, with the pandemic and the social unrest, would it surprise you if it happened?
...

https://dailyreckoning.com/nancy-pelosi-next-president-of-the-united-states/

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,063

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Continental Op said:

and after poking around, can someone tell me how D-House/R-Senate at .37 on "What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2020 Election?" isn't free money?  

Yeah- Dems almost assuredly going to win the senate or at least get it to 50/50 with the tie breaker. Like- almost as likely as Biden winning presidency. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,507

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Follow up:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-if-trump-loses-and-wont-leave/

PredictIt seems to give themselves an out by stating they can determine the results how they see fit if unexpected issues occur. Now would they pay off Biden bettors even if Trump declares himself the winner? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

the sitting President of the United States told a group that his own FBI told him was a domestic white supremacist terror group to "Standby" 

I can't imagine why he might be slipping as the odds-on favorite to recapture the Oval Office.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • 3 weeks later...
Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,507

Posted
Posted

PredictIt still has Trump at winning the popular vote at 18-19 cents. Maybe I’m the one who will be in total shock when trump wins in a landslide but there appears to be many people that are putting their MAGA dreams ahead of common sense.

I would think a better price for this should 5-8 cents. And that’s only trying to allow some risk. Honesty I think it’s 0. Wish I could put more down on this contract.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BradInATX

BradInATX 9,208

Posted
Posted (edited)

Was waiting to jump into this thing when the water got a little less murky. Decided this was my spot. 

 

Republicans do not win presidency: $732 to win $1200
EC margin of victory Dems 100-149: $140 to win $1000
Ohio popular vote margin: 2.5% to 3.5% (GOP) $80 to win $1000
Biden wins Michigan: $365 to win $534
State with smallest margin of victory:  Georgia $130 to win $1000
State with smallest margin of victory:  Florida $120 to win $1000
State with smallest margin of victory:  NC $90 to win $1000
Republicans do not win Florida: $294 to win $600
Dems to win Nevada: $750 to win $1000
Georgia margin of victory 0-1% (GOP): $135 to win $1500
Georgia margin of victory 0-1% (Dems ) $45 to win $500
Kelly to win AZ special: $149 to win $182 (had a little bit of cash left and couldn't find any more bets, this seemed like the best 'guaranteed' bet still on the board)

 

I'm betting on the data and science here. Everything I've looked at and the numbers I've crunched show that Trump is running 3-5% ahead of Hillary in swing states. 

I'm hedged against a huge blue wave with my big bets on Biden to win, Kelly to win, Biden in Michigan and Florida. A blue wipeout that overshoots all of my targeted bets still profits me about $400. If I hit any of my targeted bets, those are big profits. My only exposure is a Trump win. I'm willing to take my chances with that. 

I think it's a pretty good low-downside board with home run opportunity.

See how this goes (yolo). Took the day after off. Might be a long night.

Edited by BradInATX
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

Posted
Posted

The state markets are trending to trump hardcore right now, but supposedly the explanation is that the presidential market has been maxed out on bettors and it’s forcing people to bet on the state markets.

It looks like people are making some bad bets because Florida and North Carolina are probably still in the tilt Biden to toss up range.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BradInATX

BradInATX 9,208

Posted
Posted
Just now, Voldemort86 said:

The state markets are trending to trump hardcore right now, but supposedly the explanation is that the presidential market has been maxed out on bettors and it’s forcing people to bet on the state markets.

It looks like people are making some bad bets because Florida and North Carolina are probably still in the tilt Biden to toss up range.

Yeah, I tried to make a max bet on Biden popular vote and was told that the contract had reached its maximum amount of bettors. Weak.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,507

Posted
Posted

I'm surprised that more of the bets aren't moving closer to $1 now. I have a few bets that I would be more than happy to get away from at >$.95.   Trump should not be at .41 right now. I completely agree that he could win but he doesn't have a 40% chance.  People that previously bought at .40 or even .45 should be getting away from their bet by selling their contract even at a small loss. 

There seems to be a lot of emotion or wishing in these markets. If I really thought Trump would win, I would think that I could keep waiting and get in for 20 or 30 cents in another week. But perhaps that is never going to occur until election night. 

Speaking of which I may set up a monitor (rarely used tv) in my living room on election night to have PredictIt  up. I assume there will be massive market movement on that night as returns are announced. Even getting out of a bad bet at 80% loss is better than keeping it to the bitter end. If you can find a buyer.  We need to keep this thread actively updated that night.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BradInATX

BradInATX 9,208

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

We need to keep this thread actively updated that night.

I'm in. I have the next day off, a shit ton of booze, and 3 large invested so I'll be here. Everyone should post all of their bets on election night so we can be true gambling addicts together.

Edited by BradInATX
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Anastasis

Anastasis 23,454

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Speaking of which I may set up a monitor (rarely used tv) in my living room on election night to have PredictIt  up. I assume there will be massive market movement on that night as returns are announced. Even getting out of a bad bet at 80% loss is better than keeping it to the bitter end. If you can find a buyer.  We need to keep this thread actively updated that night.

If '18 is any indication, the PI servers will get completely overloaded and transactions will not process in a timely manner at all. I was planning to play swings in Texas as the larger counties came in for Beto, and could get any trade to settle so had to eat some positions.

DO NOT COUNT ON PI TO WORK ON ELECTION NIGHT. 

I would clear out any positions that you don't have conviction to ride to the end on the day or two before.

Hopefully they get their shit together and I am wrong.  

Edited by Anastasis
  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Continental Op

Continental Op 3,934

Posted
Posted (edited)

I'd make sure to get out of anything where you're not really committed to the bit before election night.  I tried to buy more "dems house/reps senate" when it briefly went way down for some reason I can't remember on election night in 2018 and couldn't get a trade to go through.  

ETA:  Anastasis beat me to it. Great (or maybe not so great) minds think alike. 

Edited by Continental Op
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,507

Posted
Posted (edited)

I'm heavy on the national popular vote percentage.  I've covered the ranges from 6% to above 10.5% for Biden.  two difficult choices here. Do I bail on any options as it moves that night. Especially given there is a good chance (100%?) this bet is NOT resolved Election night. 

Many of my other bets are more of an arbitrage move. Hope to earn 10-15% return for what I consider a relatively low risk.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,063

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Was waiting to jump into this thing when the water got a little less murky. Decided this was my spot. 

 

Republicans do not win presidency: $732 to win $1200
EC margin of victory Dems 100-149: $140 to win $1000
Ohio popular vote margin: 2.5% to 3.5% (GOP) $80 to win $1000
Biden wins Michigan: $365 to win $534
State with smallest margin of victory:  Georgia $130 to win $1000
State with smallest margin of victory:  Florida $120 to win $1000
State with smallest margin of victory:  NC $90 to win $1000
Republicans do not win Florida: $294 to win $600
Dems to win Nevada: $750 to win $1000
Georgia margin of victory 0-1% (GOP): $135 to win $1500
Georgia margin of victory 0-1% (Dems ) $45 to win $500
Kelly to win AZ special: $149 to win $182 (had a little bit of cash left and couldn't find any more bets, this seemed like the best 'guaranteed' bet still on the board)

 

I'm betting on the data and science here. Everything I've looked at and the numbers I've crunched show that Trump is running 3-5% ahead of Hillary in swing states. 

I'm hedged against a huge blue wave with my big bets on Biden to win, Kelly to win, Biden in Michigan and Florida. A blue wipeout that overshoots all of my targeted bets still profits me about $400. If I hit any of my targeted bets, those are big profits. My only exposure is a Trump win. I'm willing to take my chances with that. 

I think it's a pretty good low-downside board with home run opportunity.

See how this goes (yolo). Took the day after off. Might be a long night.

I like all your bets except for Dems to win Nevada. Don't get me wrong, I think you are going to cash that check but I'd want more than 3-1. I think I'd have preferred to dump that into Michigan as opposed to Nevada. Or some in Michigan and some more in GOD doesn't win presidency- which both to me seem better value than what you are getting out of Nevada.  Again, I think you cash that ticket and there shouldn't ever be bitching over cashing a ticket, but yeah, those are some good bets I think.  If NC was getting close to even money I might have allocated a little of that NV money there too. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,063

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I'm heavy on the national popular vote percentage.  I've covered the ranges from 6% to above 10.5% for Biden.  two difficult choices here. Do I bail on any options as it moves that night. Especially given there is a good chance (100%?) this bet is NOT resolved Election night. 

Many of my other bets are more of an arbitrage move. Hope to earn 10-15% return for what I consider a relatively low risk.

I can't see how your national popular vote can pay out inside of a month. Doesn't CA usually spend 3-4 weeks counting?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,507

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I can't see how your national popular vote can pay out inside of a month. Doesn't CA usually spend 3-4 weeks counting?

Agree. I actually have 4 bets in this category so I would actually like to get out of all of them ASAP. My hope is that 2 bets will start to emerge from the pack. then decide if I hold onto the end or not.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,063

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Agree. I actually have 4 bets in this category so I would actually like to get out of all of them ASAP. My hope is that 2 bets will start to emerge from the pack. then decide if I hold onto the end or not.

I like your range (I'd probably shift mine down to 5-9 but we'd obviously have a lot of overlap there, but yeah, they are going to be counting ballots forever I think. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BradInATX

BradInATX 9,208

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Agree. I actually have 4 bets in this category so I would actually like to get out of all of them ASAP. My hope is that 2 bets will start to emerge from the pack. then decide if I hold onto the end or not.

What's your plan for this? It seems like you might be able to get some idea by watching some of the bellwether Florida counties early. 

I didn't really want to touch the national number. I'm freaked out by it a bit. Florida ran about 3.5% right of the popular vote last time. If the polls are to believed right now they show Biden up 8.5%. Following that pattern Biden should win Florida by 5%. It doesn't make sense.

It's the one thing about the whole election that gives me pause. The nationals don't line up with the states. Biden should be dominating Florida if he's really up 8-9% nationally.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
WBT

WBT 20,559

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, BradInATX said:

I'm also thinking I need to add Iowa to my "smallest MOV state" bet. Even a 1% push left of what I'm expecting moves Iowa to the needle instead of FL/NC/GA.

I'd consider OH also for smallest MOV

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,507

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

What's your plan for this? It seems like you might be able to get some idea by watching some of the bellwether Florida counties early. 

I didn't really want to touch the national number. I'm freaked out by it a bit. Florida ran about 3.5% right of the popular vote last time. If the polls are to believed right now they show Biden up 8.5%. Following that pattern Biden should win Florida by 5%. It doesn't make sense.

It's the one thing about the whole election that gives me pause. The nationals don't line up with the states. Biden should be dominating Florida if he's really up 8-9% nationally.

Any 1 of the 4 bets can win and I earn a profit. That's the nice thing of buying 10-15 cent contracts.  But I would like to sell 1 or 2 of them before election day.  But I need to see national polls move more before I would take that chance. 

As stated, we won't know the national percent for a while as CA will raise Biden's total up significantly.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
Link to comment
Share on other sites
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...