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"Easy" Money Come Election Day (Prediction Market Gambling)

Anastasis

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

state with lowest margin of victory is more likely to be Florida or North Carolina. 
 

 

I've got it as NC then GA then FL right now.

 

Closest MOV Power Rankings:

1. NC
2. GA
3. FL
4t. TX
4t. IA

Not receiving votes: Ohio

Edited by BradInATX
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Is your wife pregnant?  If so, where did the ob/gyn go to med school?  Asking for a friend.  *calls bookie* 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29189

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i just threw around a bunch of wishful thinking "put" type of bets (is that what we would call them on this?).  just in case the volatility continues on certain states.  i'll buy and sell and make a couple pennies and move on.  hopefully several times throughout the day.  just made $10 betting on trump in penn, because biden was up 4 cents already this morning, figured it would bounce back and has.

gonna try to rally as much cash as possible by sunday or so, then start laying the bets that i'll keep until tues/wed.  the genius of predictit is that we don't need official announcements or declarations to come in.  if penn is gonna go biden, even when lawsuits are threatened, the market will decide and we'll be fine.

also noticed kind of a weird squeeze to keep an eye on.  ohio is at $0.73 right now - far from the some of the pinker states.  but it's also right around the top of the list for "slimmest margin".  either the ohio number is too high, or it has no business being with georgia, texas, north caro on that list.  not sure how to take advantage yet but working on it.

i might order some blow or start drinking.  this is stressful and it's not even 11am yet.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29189

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Posted
6 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i just threw around a bunch of wishful thinking "put" type of bets (is that what we would call them on this?).  just in case the volatility continues on certain states.  i'll buy and sell and make a couple pennies and move on.  hopefully several times throughout the day.  just made $10 betting on trump in penn, because biden was up 4 cents already this morning, figured it would bounce back and has.

also for anyone trying this, i screwed myself by losing track.  had trump "no" in arizona, which i'd like to keep in theory, and sold 400 shares at a $0.03 profit without realizing it.  trying to wait and get back in now.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29189

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Posted
6 minutes ago, texastough said:

I don't gamble and don't understand the numbers representing the odds. So sorry for the dumb question, but right now if you put $1 on Biden to win TX or Trump to lose TX, what is the payout?

not gambling might actually benefit you here, because these do not work like "futures" or "prop bets" that you might make with a sportsbook.

these function like shares of stock.  you look at what you're interested in, and see what the cost is per share.  if the thing you're predicting comes true, that share is worth $1.  so in your case, biden is currently $0.31 to win texas.  which means if you buy one share at $0.31, hold it til election day, and he wins texas, you sell that share for a buck, and make $0.69 (so a little bit better than a 2-1 payoff, or +200 in the sports gambling terms).

but once you have it, if polls come out or returns or trends or whatever, and other people buy it too, it might go up, and you could end up selling it for $0.35 and make 4 pennies.  which is not much, but maybe you bought 500 shares.

i used to use it for buying and waiting, but wheeling and dealing is much more fun (and can be profitable if you're paying attention).

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23454

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9 minutes ago, texastough said:

I don't gamble and don't understand the numbers representing the odds. So sorry for the dumb question, but right now if you put $1 on Biden to win TX or Trump to lose TX, what is the payout?

Predictit is unique as far as I can tell. The prices you are seeing quoted are the price for 1 share, ranging from $0.01 to $0.99.  When the market resolves, whatever positions are fulfilled pay out $1.00.  The positions that "lose" are paid out $0.00. 

E.g. Shares in Tom Herman fired before 12/31/2020 might be priced at YES @ 0.75 and NO @ 0.25.  

You could buy 1000 shares of YES for $750.  If Tom gets fired before 12/31, that market would pay you $1,000 (minus fees). 

If you but 1000 shares of NO for $250, and our long national nightmare continues into 2021, that market would pay out $1000 (minus fees). 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, texastough said:

I don't gamble and don't understand the numbers representing the odds. So sorry for the dumb question, but right now if you put $1 on Biden to win TX or Trump to lose TX, what is the payout?

Every share you buy is worth $1 if it comes true.

That's all you really need to know. You buy Biden to win presidency for .65 (or whatever), that will be worth $1 when he does.

Adjust for cashout fee (5%, I think).

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13507

Posted
Posted

Bitches, my "Hillary will not run in 2020" bet resolved today. This was one of my first bets in PredictIt. Turned $4.60 into $4.90. Took them long enough to pay up. 

I saw a 538 tweet/story that they surmised that PredictIt doesn't represent conventional wisdom because of the betting limits. The individual's smart money hits the limit so the equilibrium is wrong. As an example, I'm maxxed out on several bets including Dems retaining House majority. If possible, I would risk a much larger amount. The only risk I fear from that bet is PredictIt running away with the money on Nov. 3rd. 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

PredictIt seems to be moving more the Right over the weekend. Either Trumpkins feel emboldened, the Left is nervous and/or the smart money is moving out.

A few bets that I was happy with my purchase price a few weeks ago, are available at better prices now.

 

Some of it looks really dumb. I think it's a lot of Trump wishful thinking. PA has a higher price for "state with smallest margin of victory" than FL, NC, or GA do, which is really really stupid. 

I'm irritated that  I could have bought some of these positions cheaper, but it is what it is, I was always riding them to the finish line.

 

Still feeling strong about my NC/GA/FL being the closest MOV bet, the Ohio being 2.5-3.5% Trump win, and all of my state bets.

Edited by BradInATX
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13507

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Posted
Just now, BradInATX said:

I mean 10-15% of people betting on that site are the types that think Trump is going to winn 400 electoral votes. Free money.

image.thumb.png.9c43ad8513eaca0c37f7a87b5695963a.png

I think you're referencing the Texas win %.  You have to believe in a complete failure of every poll, including Trump's internal #s to bet Texas wins by >8%.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I think you're referencing the Texas win %.  You have to believe in a complete failure of every poll, including Trump's internal #s to bet Texas wins by >8%.

That's national, so 10-15% of people think that Trump is going to outperform the 538 popular vote model by 8%. That model currently has Biden by 7.8% so everyone on that bet believes Trump is going to win the Popular Vote.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13507

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

I mean 10-15% of people betting on that site are the types that think Trump is going to winn 400 electoral votes. Free money.

image.thumb.png.9c43ad8513eaca0c37f7a87b5695963a.png

 

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

That's national, so 10-15% of people think that Trump is going to outperform the 538 popular vote model by 8%. That model currently has Biden by 7.8% so everyone on that bet believes Trump is going to win the Popular Vote.

My bad. This option had missed my radar. Damn, I feel like reaching into my wallet again. Downside is that it could take some weeks to resolve but selling it Tues/Wed at .98 is a good 2 day return.

FYI, from what I can tell, this bet in 2016 would have paid off Trump 1-2%. Definitely no where near >8%.  

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

 

My bad. This option had missed my radar. Damn, I feel like reaching into my wallet again. Downside is that it could take some weeks to resolve but selling it Tues/Wed at .98 is a good 2 day return.

Free money is free money if you're liquid enough.

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 10957

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

The only thing I can think of is maybe some Trumpkins are banking on trump stealing the election at all costs. He’s demonstrated many times before that he doesn’t  care about this country or the people in it.

From what I can tell they think the only way that Biden can get the votes is via cheating. It's wild.

Edited by SimonBolivar
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Chewy's Hairy Horn

Chewy's Hairy Horn 868

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, SimonBolivar said:

From what I can tell they think the only way that Biden can get the votes is via cheating. It's wild.

Or they think that buying shares is actually voting. Almost all of my positions are in the red. Clearly, I bought in way too early. I’ve got:

Biden Elected 2020 

Trump No in Florida hedged with GOP 0-2% MOV 

Florida and GA smallest MOV

Trump no in Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Arizona

Yes - Woman VP

No Trump win any state lost in 2016

No Trump wins Texas 8%+ MOV
 

Looking ahead, and assuming these pay out, I’m considering:

Yes 2020 Hottest on record 

No - Trump finishing first term if he loses. Can see a possible resignation so that Pence can issue him a pardon.

Clemency for Flynn and Manafort

No to Pompeo being SOS on 2/15/21. Currently sitting at  .70  
 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13507

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47 minutes ago, Chewy's Hairy Horn said:

Or they think that buying shares is actually voting. Almost all of my positions are in the red. Clearly, I bought in way too early. I’ve got:

Biden Elected 2020 

Trump No in Florida hedged with GOP 0-2% MOV 

Florida and GA smallest MOV

Trump no in Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Arizona

Yes - Woman VP

No Trump win any state lost in 2016

No Trump wins Texas 8%+ MOV
 

Looking ahead, and assuming these pay out, I’m considering:

Yes 2020 Hottest on record 

No - Trump finishing first term if he loses. Can see a possible resignation so that Pence can issue him a pardon.

Clemency for Flynn and Manafort

No to Pompeo being SOS on 2/15/21. Currently sitting at  .70  
 

In the same boat. Many bets are in the red. I still believe I made safe bets with good payouts. Maybe not.

i might spend some time tomorrow trying to decide how to identify unexpected results as early as possible. Are the early states coming in as expected by the polls or not.  I also wouldn’t mind getting out of some bets early to have cash to play with if some bets start to swing.

 

 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

In the same boat. Many bets are in the red. I still believe I made safe bets with good payouts. Maybe not.

i might spend some time tomorrow trying to decide how to identify unexpected results as early as possible. Are the early states coming in as expected by the polls or not.  I also wouldn’t mind getting out of some bets early to have cash to play with if some bets start to swing.

 

 

 

Watch these

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/upshot/needle-election-forecast.html

They analyze individual county level results vs. expected/historical. Only three states, but you should be able to see pretty early which way the momentum is headed. I'll be watching them to see if there is any value in exiting bets picking up new ones, but if Anastasis is to be believed, the site will be down. So I'm expecting to just ride these bets to 0 or 100

Edited by BradInATX
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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Chewy's Hairy Horn said:

 

No to Pompeo being SOS on 2/15/21. Currently sitting at  .70  
 

Damn, that's a pretty nice value as a proxy for Biden winning. There's no chance that Pompeo lasts a week once Biden is sworn in. Good find. I might jump on that one.

Edited to add: I'm trying to look at this Pompeo bet and PredictIt is really, really slow already on election eve. No way we're going to be hustling the margins during the election tomorrow. It's gonna be down.

Edited by BradInATX
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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 10957

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2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

I just made a few small trades to test the settlement time, and it settled virtually immediately.  Not a sure thing when the volume really picks up tonight though. 

Trying to get Biden at NO ($.37) and getting 

"We have reached the maximum number of traders on this contract."

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23454

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17 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

Trying to get Biden at NO ($.37) and getting 

"We have reached the maximum number of traders on this contract."

They are restricted by I think the SEC  on the number of positions that can be taken up on any given contract.  When the server goes to shit, it just won't register any trades at all. 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29189

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Arizona's red now on predictit. Tons of dotard money coming in there and in Florida (.54 and .64). Biden now at 279 total. 

it spent all last night toggling between dem .54 and gop .54.  certain states have been tightening since saturday, but the spread on the election is still $0.20+

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13507

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Posted
40 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Arizona's red now on predictit. Tons of dotard money coming in there and in Florida (.54 and .64). Biden now at 279 total. 

When I start to get nervous at my bets, for an overall good night for the Dems, I see that Trumpkins are still betting the House flips red at .14. I would bet my retirement money on Dems maintaining the House.  That .14 number should be less than .05.

There is so much dumb money on PredictIt. They may run into some upsets that pay them but they're the equivalent of playing the Field on a craps table. 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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Posted (edited)

Definitely movement towards blue happening now. I was "down" about 500 bucks earlier, now I'm down 250. I actually have some work to do so I'm not following closely enough to know which specific bets, but my entire board of blue bets is rallying.

Edited by BradInATX
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13507

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Definitely movement towards blue happening now. I was "down" about 500 bucks earlier, now I'm down 250. I actually have some work to do so I'm not following closely enough to know which specific bets, but my entire board of blue bets is rallying.

Yeah about the same ratio for me. I was down 300 last night.   Now 150. The comments (when I wade in to read them) still have Trump in a landslide.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13507

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Posted

When Florida closes around 7pm CT, I expect to see massive swings in the betting lines. Florida has already been counting mail-in ballots, and should be reported first. If Biden performs well with these numbers, bettors could panic if they see Biden with a strong early lead.  Also remember that the FL panhandle closes later.

I've read a few analysts say to not worry about PA but focus on FL tonight especially since Florida should wrap up early. 

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