"Easy" Money Come Election Day (Prediction Market Gambling)

[Blotto 24037]

Well just about every position I'm interested in taking is "maxed out". kind of pointless at this point. 

[BradInATX 9208]

Damn, I'm almost back to even money after being down $500 no more than two hours ago. There's heavy money coming in on Biden positions. Best I can tell my AZ (Kelly and Biden), MI, Nevada, and the NO Pompeo bet hereby known as the Chewy bet are rising fast.

[Anastasis 23723]

Yep, AZ and PA making big moves towards Biden. Texas as well.  

[Anastasis 23723]

Show me a flipped state here:

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6724/Will-Donald-Trump-win-any-state-he-lost-in-2016

NO @ 0.65

Is this basically a Nevada/Wisconsin play?

[BradInATX 9208]

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

14 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13740]

Up 250 now.  

 

[Anastasis 23723]

Texas doing interesting things.  I think that there is a chance to catch a swing for Biden, even if he doesn't win the state, as long as the servers don't shit the bed and you are stuck holding the bag.  

[BradInATX 9208]

I can't even log in.
 

Guess I'm in my bets for the long haul.

[BradInATX 9208]

I just want all of you who have Trump bets to know that you guys are the assholes at the craps table betting the don't pass line. 

 

[Chewy's Hairy Horn 868]

It’s still pretty responsive for me.  I considering getting out of GOP Florida mov 1-2% and keeping 0-1% as a hedge. Not sure if this is rational or emotional decision though. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13740]

hopefully they're rebooting the laptop that the site runs on. I can't get the site to load. Happy with my positions and really wanted to see how the night progressed: win or lose. well, win.

[BradInATX 9208]

Glad I hedged my Florida bet.

[henrygandorf 29228]

i was in the red until about an hour ago.

now i can't log in, so....

[Nice Guy Eddie 13740]

the predictit owners are deregistering the site right now, and disappearing...

[Anastasis 23723]

Told y'all mofos it was going to crash tonight. 

They aren't going anywhere with your money.  Their model is based on taking generous cuts from the winners and withdrawals. 

But you can have no expectation of being able to move transactions with the election night swings.  I am riding Biden wins Texas into the mountain I guess. 

 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13740]

damn. Denton still going with Trump but down from 2016.  +20 in 2016.  +7 in 2020...

feel good about my late Biden win in Texas

Edited November 4, 2020 by Nice Guy Eddie

[BradInATX 9208]

Fuck, I didn't hedge Florida enough.

Fucking Florida.

[Anastasis 23723]

7 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Fuck, I didn't hedge Florida enough.

Fucking Florida.

[Anastasis 23723]

Still can't get shit to load.  Only position I wanted to have a sell order in was Texas, but even if I ride it into the ground it hedges out my bet with JimmyJames. 

[TexasMan 11460]

 

[Anastasis 23723]

[Nice Guy Eddie 13740]

I know we were warned here about PredictIt being down tonight but when a service take 1% & 5% fees, it's disappointing they cannot prepare for this. And this isn't 2002 when you run your own servers.

[Anastasis 23723]

PI appears to be at least reporting current prices and its a blood bath. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13740]

I was able to dump a few bets for 90% loss. Shored up a few bets.  I'm about 20% down at the moment.  Need AZ to go blue to win my bet that Trump will lose at least 1 state from 2016.

Edited November 4, 2020 by Nice Guy Eddie

[JimmyJames 12271]

2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Still can't get shit to load.  Only position I wanted to have a sell order in was Texas, but even if I ride it into the ground it hedges out my bet with JimmyJames. 

So it looks like I lost but I can't tell yet. Numbers aren't done but not looking good. I'll wait until its called to comment further. Any insight?

[Anastasis 23723]

2 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

So it looks like I lost but I can't tell yet. Numbers aren't done but not looking good. I'll wait until its called to comment further. Any insight?

I think that you lose the bet and I lost my hedge position and the end result is that I ask you to make your end right by sending money to a mutually agreed charity organization. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

I think that you lose the bet and I lost my hedge position and the end result is that I ask you to make your end right by sending money to a mutually agreed charity organization. 

If I lose I assure you I will pay. I pay my bets. I'm just wondering if you have any insight into why at this point. Has Fort Bend been counted? It may not matter but just looking for info.

[Anastasis 23723]

Just now, JimmyJames said:

If I lose I assure you I will pay. I pay my bets. I'm just wondering if you have any insight into why at this point. Has Fort Bend been counted? It may not matter but just looking for info.

The root cause appears to be that Biden didn't engage hispanics in Texas. I didn't anticipate that result, thus hedging out our bet. If it goes my way the charity I would propose is mobile loaves and fishes. https://mlf.org/ But if you have any discomfort with that, will be open to your alternative suggestions. 

[workswithseed 2204]

3 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

damn. Denton still going with Trump but down from 2016.  +20 in 2016.  +7 in 2020...

feel good about my late Biden win in Texas

Damn, TWU and UNT have really changed things up there in Denton. Also lots of new people moving in.

[BradInATX 9208]

The Chewy Bet is going to break me even I think. I owe you a beer sir @Chewy's Hairy Horn

[JimmyJames 12271]

Just now, Anastasis said:

The root cause appears to be that Biden didn't engage hispanics in Texas. I didn't anticipate that result, thus hedging out our bet. If it goes my way the charity I would propose is mobile loaves and fishes. https://mlf.org/ But if you have any discomfort with that, will be open to your alternative suggestions. 

That charity is fine. If I won I was going to suggest St. Louise house.

[Anastasis 23723]

Just now, BradInATX said:

The Chewy Bet is going to break me even I think. I owe you a beer sir @Chewy's Hairy Horn

My PI account is scuttled if Trump wins. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13740]

Everyone is flipping out because Trump definitely had a good first half. Biden looks to be taking AZ and might surprise everyone with IA.  Not sure IA will matter much but if it goes Biden, it should eliminate the horror story of a 269-269 tie.  Looks like it will come down to who can win 2 of the 3 midwest states. 

I don't think either side should necessary feel overly confident at this moment. Trump is leading those states but there are many votes to count. 

The betting markets seemed to have stabilized somewhat. close to a coin toss now.

[BradInATX 9208]

6 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

My PI account is scuttled if Trump wins. 

I'm still hoping for a couple of my Barry Bonds swing bets to hit. Ohio Trump between 2.5-3.5 is in play

What are your losers? I thought you mostly had middling positions?

Edited November 4, 2020 by BradInATX

[Anastasis 23723]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I'm still hoping for a couple of my Barry Bonds swing bets to hit. Ohio Trump between 2.5-3.5 is in play

What are your losers? I thought you mostly had middling positions?

Everything was bigly red last I was able to see the dashboard. Dem to win POTUS, GOP to lose POTUS, Trump popular vote was even red, Penn was red, AZ green, Dem house green, Trump loses state won in 2016 green. Didn't grab a screen cap, but I am down bigly on my max out positions if Trump wins. 

[BradInATX 9208]

7 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Everything was bigly red last I was able to see the dashboard. Dem to win POTUS, GOP to lose POTUS, Trump popular vote was even red, Penn was red, AZ green, Dem house green, Trump loses state won in 2016 green. Didn't grab a screen cap, but I am down bigly on my max out positions if Trump wins. 

He's not going to win.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13740]

5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Everything was bigly red last I was able to see the dashboard. Dem to win POTUS, GOP to lose POTUS, Trump popular vote was even red, Penn was red, AZ green, Dem house green, Trump loses state won in 2016 green. Didn't grab a screen cap, but I am down bigly on my max out positions if Trump wins. 

I took the biggest % loss on Biden winning Texas that I stupidly dropped some money on this afternoon. Luckily I was far from maxing out the bet. whew. 

My biggest overall bet was Biden margin of popular vote margin. I'm relatively confident that will rebound somewhat.  As of typing this, Biden has 1.3% lead but CA is only half reported.  Not to mention that Philly, Detroit and Atlanta are still outstanding, I believe. I think Biden still pops 5% win but I would be happier if he could get to 6.

I'm sweating out max bets with WI and Biden winning overall.

[BradInATX 9208]

Anyone see an obstacle to my Georgia being the state with the closest MOV, or the Georgia MOV 0-1 (#Bothsides) bet hitting? Has to be the closest race, right? Those are both huge hits for me if they come in.

Edited November 4, 2020 by BradInATX

[Nice Guy Eddie 13740]

@BradInATX Isnt NC the closest at the moment? Throw some money on NC as a hedge?

Edited November 4, 2020 by Nice Guy Eddie

[BradInATX 9208]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Isnt NC the closest at the moment? Throw some money on NC as a hedge?

I have NC too. I took NC, FL, and GA in the closest MOV. 

GA is the only one I took the 0-1 margin of victory on both sides. Every time I modeled things out, Georgia was incredibly stable between about a half point D and a half point R win.

[Anastasis 23723]

2 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

If I lose I assure you I will pay. I pay my bets. I'm just wondering if you have any insight into why at this point. Has Fort Bend been counted? It may not matter but just looking for info.

Looks like Texas is done. A screen cap of your donation receipt will suffice.  

[Anastasis 23723]

12 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I have NC too. I took NC, FL, and GA in the closest MOV. 

GA is the only one I took the 0-1 margin of victory on both sides. Every time I modeled things out, Georgia was incredibly stable between about a half point D and a half point R win.

Never bet fl. 

[BradInATX 9208]

Site is back up. Was able to sell my NC closest MOV position for 3x investment. Put my Floridas up for a penny each if anyone is interested. Going all-in on Georgia.

[JimmyJames 12271]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

Looks like Texas is done. A screen cap of your donation receipt will suffice.  

Will do. So we each bet $500. Based on the odds what does that mean I owe? 

[Anastasis 23723]

6 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Will do. So we each bet $500. Based on the odds what does that mean I owe? 

you were in for 500. If I lost i was in for approximately 1300. 

Edited November 4, 2020 by Anastasis

[JimmyJames 12271]

Just now, Anastasis said:

you were in for 500. If I lost approximately I was in for approximately 1300. 

Ok. Will pay it today or tomorrow. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13740]

Sold off some of my remaining positions. Decided that a 50% loss was better than 100. Overall the night  didn’t turn out what I had hoped but at least I took dumb money off some trumpkins.

And I can be satisfied that they lost their landslide bets.

[Anastasis 23723]

Hit AZ and popular vote and dem house and trump lose any state he won in 2016.  Gonna ride or die with PA, Biden POTUS, Dem POTUS. 

[Wulaw Horn 19598]

4 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Hit AZ and popular vote and dem house and trump lose any state he won in 2016.  Gonna ride or die with PA, Biden POTUS, Dem POTUS. 

Congrats on making the decision to keep your potus bets. I was saying pound the table for going all in on Biden when he was +300/400 depending upon the book. My bet is a lot of people weren’t as steady as you were last night.