"Easy" Money Come Election Day (Prediction Market Gambling)

[Chewy's Hairy Horn 868]

I tried like crazy to dump my FL  lowest mov last night but could never get the site to respond. I have GA as well though so doing okay.  Overall I’m up about 15%.

[BradInATX 9,208]

Up about 70% and that should get a bit bigger if things go the way they're looking.

I was able to exit some losers late last night and get a few hundred down on female VP yes for 30 cents.

This bet looking strong:

[Chewy's Hairy Horn 868]

.30 female VP is awesome!

[BradInATX 9,208]

.30 female VP is awesome!

Thanks again for the Pompeo idea. Sorry a couple of my bets that you followed along with were no gos. What an inexact science these pills are.

[Anastasis 23,404]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Congrats on making the decision to keep your potus bets. I was saying pound the table for going all in on Biden when he was +300/400 depending upon the book. My bet is a lot of people weren’t as steady as you were last night. 

Yeah, those all stabilized into the green over night. I really want to exit my remaining positions and take the money off the table, but the POTUS win is the real pay day. 

[Chewy's Hairy Horn 868]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

15 minutes ago, Chewy said:

.30 female VP is awesome!

Thanks again for the Pompeo idea. Sorry a couple of my bets that you followed along with were no gos. What an inexact science these pills are.

Hey, no need to apologize, I didn’t do badly at all. Plus I got in on Pompeo at .70 as well.

Just wishing I had eased up just a tad on the Corzo last night.  My 6 year old woke up way too early to check on the “coyote trap” she’d made last night (cardboard box propped up with sticks and, curiously, a hotdog as bait).  She was very pissed it hadn’t been successful and was demanding to see outside camera footage saying it needed to be “under review”.  I blame the refs. 

[TexasMan 10,831]

 

[Anastasis 23,404]

I would have probably stolen the hotdog for a late night snack last night. 

[Anastasis 23,404]

Looks like there is still 15-16 cents to be made in the various POTUS markets. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,419]

I didn't have the courage to stay 100% on my Biden WI position when I went to bed at 2 or 3.  I couldn't find any hard facts on the # of outstanding votes, the location and how many of them were absentee/early. Or the info I had was conflicted. 

I decided to split the difference by dumping about half my Biden WI for a loss. Then I wake up to the news that I'm up on that bet. Wish I hadn't sold now but happy at the current state.

Rolled my cash into some 7% profit bets. Since the money is on the site why not get a few percentage points to make up for my overall loss. At least that loss is limited.

Edited November 4, 2020 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,419]

PI seems to be down again. I wonder if the Michigan call or continued PA narrowing pushed everyone to get away from Trump winning the EC.

The AZ announcement at 8pm tonight should be a major shift depending on the results.

[henrygandorf 29,183]

i didn't want to deal with the uncertainty, so i cashed out my az and nv holdings late last night when the site came back up.  got $0.90-$0.95 for each and went about my business.

my one remaining play is georgia for smallest mov.

definitely a good day, but would've been a lot more fun if the site was up.  crashing on election day is like when directv sunday ticket crashed a few years ago during week 1.  "we just didn't expect that type of spike in viewers..."

[BradInATX 9,208]

57 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i didn't want to deal with the uncertainty, so i cashed out my az and nv holdings late last night when the site came back up.  got $0.90-$0.95 for each and went about my business.

my one remaining play is georgia for smallest mov.

definitely a good day, but would've been a lot more fun if the site was up.  crashing on election day is like when directv sunday ticket crashed a few years ago during week 1.  "we just didn't expect that type of spike in viewers..."

I'm riding the Georgia MOV bet to the end, or close to it. Our risks, it looks like, are NV and NC. Georgia seems poised to end up less than a half-percent MOV.

I'm trying to decide how I want to play this one. I feel like BIden is going to win it by <1% which would net me $500, but I can get out of it right now with $830. The $1,500 upside on the GOP side is tempting but Biden is probably going to win.

[Anastasis 23,404]

Love to see those kind of numbers hitting. I am surfing around for sure thing dimes right now.  Personally, I'd sell the dem position, get positive on the initial investment, and let the GOP jackpot see if it hits.  But I clearly don't need to be giving you advice as you pretty much nailed this market. Taking down 830 on a 180 buy in ain't too shabby either. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Love to see those kind of numbers hitting. I am surfing around for sure thing dimes right now.  Personally, I'd sell the dem position, get positive on the initial investment, and let the GOP jackpot see if it hits.  But I clearly don't need to be giving you advice as you pretty much nailed this market. Taking down 830 on a 180 buy in ain't too shabby either. 

 

Man, honestly, I missed a few too. Luckily it looks like a couple of my big swings are going to come in (the Georgia MOV bet) to end me with a nice number, though. 

I actually did the opposite, and cashed out the GOP position. Rolled it into margin bets in AZ and Woman VP to squeeze some last juice out of my dollars. I'll feel dumb if Trump wins GA but I don't think he's going to. Both of my new bets were 84 cents I believe, if you're looking for easy 10%.

Edited November 5, 2020 by BradInATX

[henrygandorf 29,183]

18 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I'm riding the Georgia MOV bet to the end, or close to it. Our risks, it looks like, are NV and NC. Georgia seems poised to end up less than a half-percent MOV.

I'm trying to decide how I want to play this one. I feel like BIden is going to win it by <1% which would net me $500, but I can get out of it right now with $830. The $1,500 upside on the GOP side is tempting but Biden is probably going to win.

tough to say, because i rarely ride it out.  i cash out and then try to maximize something else.  i'll likely do the same with the mov if i can get the right price.

if they start doing recounts and shit i feel like some of these will drag.

[BradInATX 9,208]

Just now, henrygandorf said:

if they start doing recounts and shit i feel like some of these will drag.

Good point. 

Makes me wonder if there are dudes with tons of liquid cash that just slowly juice PredictIt buying winning positions at like 98 cents in mass quantities. Getting free 2% returns every 3 months means you beat the stock market most of the time.

[Anastasis 23,404]

4 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

Man, honestly, I missed a few too. Luckily it looks like a couple of my big swings are going to come in (the Georgia MOV bet) to end me with a nice number, though. 

I actually did the opposite, and cashed out the GOP position. Rolled it into margin bets in AZ and Woman VP to squeeze some last juice out of my dollars. I'll feel dumb if Trump wins GA but I don't think he's going to. Both of my new bets were 84 cents I believe, if you're looking for easy 10%.

I tried to buy the woman VP market and was locked out by the trader limits. Bought a TX dem primary winner to win presidency and a similar SC market as well to sneak out a dime+ on each, but the market is a little overbought since they have shut down the other Biden to win plays when they hit their limits. 

 

If Biden just goes ahead and closes this out, I will feel pretty good and it will be a good christmas. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

Cashed my Georgia lowest MOV bet at .63 because I saw one last home run swing I want to take. Also because Arizona, NC, and Nevada could all be threats. Getting as much down on Pennsylvania MOV Dems 1-2% as I can. Might throw a few on 0-1 as a little bit of a hedge.

Edited November 5, 2020 by BradInATX

[BradInATX 9,208]

yolo.

[Chewy's Hairy Horn 868]

Just put $50 in Trump resigning first term Yes.  Mostly as a placeholder in case shit gets sideways with him fast after the election. 

[orangecat92 306]

Any odds of 269 to 269?

[orangecat92 306]

Just looked at site.  First time.  I could buy no to more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any time during 21 for 91 cents.  Looks like free money to me.  It goes to $1.00 on January 1, 2022, correct?  

So that’s a return of 10% over 13 + months.  But, fees?  How much?  How long has site been around?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,419]

1 hour ago, orangecat92 said:

Just looked at site.  First time.  I could buy no to more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any time during 21 for 91 cents.  Looks like free money to me.  It goes to $1.00 on January 1, 2022, correct?  

So that’s a return of 10% over 13 + months.  But, fees?  How much?  How long has site been around?

When you sell, they take 1% of the profits. Then whenever you cash out, 5% fee of the total withdrawal, regardless of profits.

[BradInATX 9,208]

yolo.

Sold these for a modest gain overnight. Got worried that it's going to hit closer to 3-4%

[Chewy's Hairy Horn 868]

Got to admit, I was a little worried for you about those too.  Feeling like I’m still riding my GA bet to the end.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,419]

Trump supporters still won’t allow WI of MI to go north of 95. I guess they’re betting the last of their credit card maximums on Trump winning some lawsuits. Sad.

If left alone, what is the expected resolution date on the individual state bets? When each secretary of stare certifies the vote, or at the electoral college vote?

Tip: if you’re sitting on any cash in predictit, trump not winning the popular vote is at 96/97. Might as well take a few free points. There is not a magic 4m votes for Trump coming out of AK.

 

Edited November 5, 2020 by Nice Guy Eddie

[BradInATX 9,208]

Got to admit, I was a little worried for you about those too.  Feeling like I’m still riding my GA bet to the end.  

Yeah. I did some more digging and I think it's going to be closer to 3 and change. Set a limit sell for 4 cents more than what I paid and they triggered overnight. 4% in 8 hours beats the hell out of the market all day!

[Chewy's Hairy Horn 868]

Truth.  

[BradInATX 9,208]

Think I'm just putting everything into dimes myself the rest of the way. Don't see much value left.

[Chewy's Hairy Horn 868]

4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Trump supporters still won’t allow WI of MI to go north of 95. I guess they’re betting the last of their credit card maximums on Trump winning some lawsuits. Sad.

If left alone, what is the expected resolution date on the individual state bets? When each secretary of stare certifies the vote, or at the electoral college vote?

 

WI rules basically say PI will close it when they feel like it.  I’m guessing this means when the results are certified by SOS.  

[JimmyJames 12,271]

On 11/3/2020 at 10:17 PM, Anastasis said:

The root cause appears to be that Biden didn't engage hispanics in Texas. I didn't anticipate that result, thus hedging out our bet. If it goes my way the charity I would propose is mobile loaves and fishes. https://mlf.org/ But if you have any discomfort with that, will be open to your alternative suggestions. 

Just donated $516 to mobile loaves and fishes to cover our bet and also cover the processing fee. Will PM you the receipt later after I black out my name and address from it and scan it. 
 

And while trump still would have won Texas anyway it would have been much closer as the Hispanic vote broke heavily for him to the tune of greater than 10 percentage points. Truly astounding. Without the Hispanic vote doing that this election is much closer and more resembles the toss up polling. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

Taking one last swing with some free cash sitting in my account from other bets. Timing of presidential call; Today at .59
 

[Anastasis 23,404]

10 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Just donated $516 to mobile loaves and fishes to cover our bet and also cover the processing fee. Will PM you the receipt later after I black out my name and address from it and scan it. 
 

And while trump still would have won Texas anyway it would have been much closer as the Hispanic vote broke heavily for him to the tune of greater than 10 percentage points. Truly astounding. Without the Hispanic vote doing that this election is much closer and more resembles the toss up polling. 

Cool.  It's a great cause.  Let's do it again in 2022.

[JimmyJames 12,271]

2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Cool.  It's a great cause.  Let's do it again in 2022.

Sounds good! 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,419]

When CNN called the race, I was able to quickly buy into what "day does CNN and FOX call the race." Unfortunately I didn't have more cash as I was waiting for some 98 and 99 bets to resolve. Earned a nice 25% return in less than 10 minutes.

Good lesson to hold some money over to the side when opportunities present themselves.

[Chewy's Hairy Horn 868]

That’s just brilliant, sir.  

[BradInATX 9,208]

This was my favorite thread of the election. Enjoyed being a degenerate with you all. Glad we all came out plus. See you in 2 years. Or 2 months for the Georgia thing, if we want to get weird.

[JimmyJames 12,271]

I know it’s a long shot but taking Biden in North Carolina at 95-5 seems like a good bet. I mean dipshits are taking trump in Pennsylvania at less than that. North Carolina is still receiving votes until November 12, it’s not called, and it’s close.

[orangecat92 306]

Studying this site, I see what appears to be easy money, but maybe missing something.  Margin of victory. Popular vote, 1.5 to 3.0 %.....is listed as 2 cents.   Right now I see that the margin is 2.9%, and there are so many votes cast that I don’t see the margin moving any higher.  So if the margin even moves up one tenth, which is unlikely in my view, because there are a sizable amount of votes for trump sitting in Alaska, the investment pays off at 50 to 1.  

What am I missing?  $100 becomes $5000 before fees. what?????

then, if I wanted to hedge the bet, 3.0 to 4.5 is 35 cents.  That one closes at 2.85 to one if it wins.  $100 becomes $285.

if the margin is 3.0 I guess both would pay?  $200 would turn into $5285 before fees!

I must be missing something.  Maybe North Carolina has a Biden stash coming in.  It would have to be massive. 

 

Edited...don’t trust google to do math.  I just put the numbers in right now.  70.8 divided by 146 =48.5   Trump

.....................75.2 divided by 146 = 51.5      Biden....mov is 3.0 according to me.  

How does google not able to do math... they have trump at 47.7 and Biden at 50.6. That is how I got 2.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 8, 2020 by orangecat92

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,419]

22 minutes ago, orangecat92 said:

Studying this site, I see what appears to be easy money, but maybe missing something.  Margin of victory. Popular vote, 1.5 to 3.0 %.....is listed as 2 cents.   Right now I see that the margin is 2.9%, and there are so many votes cast that I don’t see the margin moving any higher.  So if the margin even moves up one tenth, which is unlikely in my view, because there are a sizable amount of votes for trump sitting in Alaska, the investment pays off at 50 to 1.  

What am I missing?  $100 becomes $5000 before fees. what?????

then, if I wanted to hedge the bet, 3.0 to 4.5 is 35 cents.  That one closes at 2.85 to one if it wins.  $100 becomes $285.

if the margin is 3.0 I guess both would pay?  $200 would turn into $5285 before fees!

I must be missing something.  Maybe North Carolina has a Biden stash coming in.  It would have to be massive. 

California is still reporting as 77% votes counted and they’re running 65% Biden. If those #s are right, then that’s another net million for Biden’s lead.  NY is still reporting at 84% counted so there are more net votes for Biden.

I assume that these 2 states will bump it above 3%. I don’t know if any trump states have any meaningful votes left to offset ca and ny.

I see AZ for Biden as easy money. 80 right now.  By all accounts there aren’t enough votes left to switch. It may get close but the newly counted votes keep getting smaller and smaller. The problem is that anyone may struggle to get into this vote as the trader count is full.

Edited November 8, 2020 by Nice Guy Eddie

[henrygandorf 29,183]

there's still lots of interesting bets out there.

after i cashed out, i left $80 in my account (i like round numbers).  i've already turned that $80 into $212 buying and dumping margins in pa and ga - stuff like 1% trump win in pa (no) for $0.82, then sold it off, rinse, repeat.

today i looked and grabbed will trump concede "no" at $0.80 and it's already up, but probably will dump at $0.90 and see what else.  hoping to run this up over $300.

there's also some good end of year silly stuff (will hunter biden be indicted, etc).  let's start discussing safe nesting spots for a couple months.  rather this thread not go away...

 

 

Edited November 9, 2020 by henrygandorf
clarity

[henrygandorf 29,183]

On 11/8/2020 at 4:41 AM, orangecat92 said:

Studying this site, I see what appears to be easy money, but maybe missing something.  Margin of victory. Popular vote, 1.5 to 3.0 %.....is listed as 2 cents.   Right now I see that the margin is 2.9%, and there are so many votes cast that I don’t see the margin moving any higher.  So if the margin even moves up one tenth, which is unlikely in my view, because there are a sizable amount of votes for trump sitting in Alaska, the investment pays off at 50 to 1.  

What am I missing?  $100 becomes $5000 before fees. what?????

then, if I wanted to hedge the bet, 3.0 to 4.5 is 35 cents.  That one closes at 2.85 to one if it wins.  $100 becomes $285.

if the margin is 3.0 I guess both would pay?  $200 would turn into $5285 before fees!

I must be missing something.  Maybe North Carolina has a Biden stash coming in.  It would have to be massive. 

 

Edited...don’t trust google to do math.  I just put the numbers in right now.  70.8 divided by 146 =48.5   Trump

.....................75.2 divided by 146 = 51.5      Biden....mov is 3.0 according to me.  

How does google not able to do math... they have trump at 47.7 and Biden at 50.6. That is how I got 2.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

the favorite on this now is 4.5-6.0 so i think it's gonna safely fall between 3.5-5.0 points (5mm-7.5mm votes).

[BradInATX 9,208]

Just now, henrygandorf said:

there's still lots of interesting bets out there.

after i cashed out, i left $80 in my account (i like round numbers).  i've already turned that $80 into $212 buying and dumping margins in pa and ga - stuff like 1% trump win in pa for $0.82, then sold it off, rinse, repeat.

today i looked and grabbed will trump concede "no" at $0.80 and it's already up, but probably will dump at $0.90 and see what else.  hoping to run this up over $300.

there's also some good end of year silly stuff (will hunter biden be indicted, etc).  let's start discussing safe nesting spots for a couple months.  rather this thread not go away...

I logged in this morning and saw that all of my winning positions are down to like 88 cents. I'm assuming that's the Trumpers-in-denial contingent that thinks the Supreme court is going to give him PA/AZ/GA and the election. 

Glad I went back and looked just now, there are still some 10 cent pickups on the board. I actually just got into the Trump wins popular vote for max at 92 cents. lnsane.

[Anastasis 23,404]

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

I actually just got into the Trump wins popular vote for max at 92 cents. lnsane.

Just saw this.  I got money parked in my account and will take that free money. 

[Wulaw Horn 18,991]

On 11/4/2020 at 6:21 PM, BradInATX said:

 

Man, honestly, I missed a few too. Luckily it looks like a couple of my big swings are going to come in (the Georgia MOV bet) to end me with a nice number, though. 

I actually did the opposite, and cashed out the GOP position. Rolled it into margin bets in AZ and Woman VP to squeeze some last juice out of my dollars. I'll feel dumb if Trump wins GA but I don't think he's going to. Both of my new bets were 84 cents I believe, if you're looking for easy 10%.

That was going to be my advice - get out of the GOP bet while you can still salvage anything- and double that by taking obvious positions on the other side- like Dems winning AZ or something like that where you have stubborn partisans holding out on the other side. 

[Anastasis 23,404]

Concession within two weeks from election day market, YES @ 0.12

Not touching this, but here it is.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6906

[SimonBolivar 10,949]

Cashed out on Trump to win Texas. Hopefully I don't get anything from my Trump in PA and GA bets.

[BradInATX 9,208]

LOL my portfolio is now worth less today than it was on Thursday when PA was still counting.

[Anastasis 23,404]

27 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

LOL my portfolio is now worth less today than it was on Thursday when PA was still counting.

This is amazing to me...

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/2721/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election