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2018 midterm gameday thread

Zonahorn

By Zonahorn
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Js1
Js1

Counting all the votes is not voter fraud.  Please FUCK OFF with this narrative that counting outstanding votes is shady/unethical.  Suing to STOP votes being counted (looking at you, Arizona GOP) sho

Jim Tom Pinch
Jim Tom Pinch

Apologies for interrupting the Left Wing circle jerk in here.   Carry on.

Gil Bang
Gil Bang

Not "evenly", just well-gerrymandered to keep the GOP heads above water.

Js1

Js1 85,353

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

How many total votes are outstanding?

There’s a guy in AZ tracking this. Waiting on his update. 

Theres 198,000 left in Maricopa. 50k of them got sent out for duplicate ballot verification 

its probably like 225-250k left 

Edited by Js1
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

There’s a guy in AZ tracking this. Waiting on his update. 

Theres 198,000 left in Maricopa. 50k of them got sent out for duplicate ballot verification 

its probably like 225-250k left 

Thanks for keeping us updated man. I know it’s a lot to track down. We still have about 12-14 outstanding races and you usually let us know pretty quick when we flip one.

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Js1

Js1 85,353

Posted
Posted (edited)

These were mostly “bucket B” ballots which are ballots dropped off on E Day. R camp thinks they will favor McSally bc they reflect reliable R voters who turned in ballots instead of mailing them.  Meaning they want Bucket B to reflect more McSally +5 like E Day wS  

Sinema +7 today is not good for her then 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That’s about 23k favorable to a McSally and 46k favorable to Sinema. What’s left in Maricopa will decide it. 

Sinema up 28,700

good for sinema left : 46k

good for McSally left: 23k

I’m not a math expert, but wouldn’t McSally have to totally dominate what’s left of Maricopa to win?  Seems unlikely at this point.

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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 678

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Sinema up 28,700

good for sinema left : 46k

good for McSally left: 23k

I’m not a math expert, but wouldn’t McSally have to totally dominate what’s left of Maricopa to win?  Seems unlikely at this point.

If Sinema goes up 50k from the outstanding votes from the other counties then yes, McSally would have to win the Maricopa leftovers by 25 points to pull even.

If the next batch drops with numbers more favorable to Sinema than expected, they should call the race in her favor.

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Js1

Js1 85,353

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, berlinerbaer said:

If Sinema goes up 50k from the outstanding votes from the other counties then yes, McSally would have to win the Maricopa leftovers by 25 points to pull even.

If the next batch drops with numbers more favorable to Sinema than expected, they should call the race in her favor.

McSally needs the remaining Maricopa votes to be like +15. She only won E Day by like 5. I don’t see how these are +15 for her 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

Posted
Posted (edited)

Why are repubs so god damn stupid?

some of them really believe that there’s some nationwide conspiracy to rig all of the outstanding races for the Dems. I’ll admit that Florida seems shady, but what about Georgia? Brian kemp should be investigated and prosecuted.

 

arizona and California are totally legit. They take forever to count. I think it’s either stupid / uninformed people or just ignorant morons who want something to get angry about.

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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 678

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Why are repubs so god damn stupid?

some of them really believe that there’s some nationwide conspiracy to rig all of the outstanding races for the Dems. I’ll admit that Florida seems shady, but what about Georgia? Brian kemp should be investigated and prosecuted.

 

arizona and California are totally legit. They take forever to count. I think it’s either stupid / uninformed people or just ignorant morons who want something to get angry about.

It's a page out of the Trumpist's (authoritarian's) playbook. Feed your base a never-ending diet of fear and hate, and always be on the lookout for the next boogeyman.

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

It hasn’t been called yet because it’s a Republican State and they’re hoping against hope. Another big Maricopa batch will dump everyday the next few days and should be decided by Tuesday or Wednesday right?

Correction. It was a Republican state.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Was does the NYT show Texas 23 (Hurd) still not decided?  Is it close enough that provisional or overseas ballots are still outstanding?  Or because of deer season and they stopped to hunt in the middle of counting?

Gina Ortiz Jones isn’t conceding until every single vote is counted. Her chances of actually winning are almost 0, but she’s going to wait it out until there’s no doubt I guess.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Maricopa dump. sinema’s Lead increased by 2k. 35k vote dump 

this batch was Sinema +6. Lmao I thought McSally was convinced this were going to be the votes for her 

Today was supposed to be when she fights back supposedly.

 

tuesdays batch will supposedly be pro sinema. It feels like it’s only a matter of time at this point.

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Js1

Js1 85,353

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Today was supposed to be when she fights back supposedly.

 

tuesdays batch will supposedly be pro sinema. It feels like it’s only a matter of time at this point.

And Pima will be updating tomorrow which is v pro-Sinema. McSally would have to win the rest of Maricopa, including the 50k from bucket A sent off for verification, by like ~14%

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Francisco 2.0

Francisco 2.0 32,395

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

So Florida recount will not be done by the Thursday deadline and it cannot be extended. So those ahead before the recount will be the winners. Yea, that sounds like we're honoring each person's vote. 

Florida, ladies and gentlemen.  Where you can fill out your ballot, drop it in the mail before the required deadline and it still may not get counted.  Better yet, you can vote in person and there's a good chance that your ballot would not be included in a mandatory recount.  

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Pinal update did barely anything for McSally. Only 350 vote drop in the lead. That was a 6k vote drop from Pinal and only McSally +4. 

When do you think it gets called? 

 

Would like to focus on other things at this point, like the rest of the house races.

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Js1

Js1 85,353

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

When do you think it gets called? 

 

Would like to focus on other things at this point, like the rest of the house races.

Monday after Pima probably. There’s still 41k in Pima and Coconino. Only 15k left in Pinal. 162k in Maricopa but right now it’s +4 overall in Maricopa for Sinema. McSally is at the point she needs to win the rest by 20-25. Lol

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,515

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Mo Horn said:

So Florida recount will not be done by the Thursday deadline and it cannot be extended. So those ahead before the recount will be the winners. Yea, that sounds like we're honoring each person's vote. 

If Broward or palm beach is claiming they don’t have enough working machines to process the ballots, that doesn’t seem like an insurmountable problem.  Assuming some counties have the same type of vote processing machines, can’t they share machines one county is done?   Fly in a repairman Monday morning.  Rent some machines.  Etc etc.

If a county, especially a large count, declares they don’t have the ability to count the votes and thereby disenfranchise all of their voters, I don’t see how the courts cannot step in to take over to solve the problem.

 

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Js1

Js1 85,353

Posted
Posted

The AP called NM-2.  Unsure if the Republican will ask for a recount, she hasn't conceded. 

CA-48/49 should have been called by now. 

UT-4 should be called this week (possibly tomorrow with the last dump of votes).  GA-7 is waiting on about 1600 outstanding ballots.  ME-2 will go to ranked choice voting this week hopefully.  CA-10, CA-39, CA-45 and NJ-3 are all too close to call and the California races have votes still coming in and updating almost every afternoon.

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Js1

Js1 85,353

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Appears that Dems have 4 more flipped seats wins to take their total to 36 seats gained.  The Walters and Kim races look to be retained by the GOP unless something happens.

The trend is not good for Walters and Kim.  These late ballots keep reducing their leads significantly.  I think they're all Lean-D at this point by 538.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,515

Posted
Posted

I understand that Dems were slightly depressed on Tuesday but the elections are turning out to meet the good-to-great expectations.   If they flip between 36-38 GOP seats, that's the definition of a wave.  I believe that when GWB lost 31 seats in 2006, he called a thumping of the GOP.     Hell, the Dems even took a seat in OK.  What was the net flip in governors?  7?

The one big negative with the Dems is if Nelson loses in Fla.  They were counting to retain that.   Beto and Abrams were long shots.   Honestly Gillum is actually another big loss for the Dems.   

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horncyclist

horncyclist 1,391

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I understand that Dems were slightly depressed on Tuesday but the elections are turning out to meet the good-to-great expectations.   If they flip between 36-38 GOP seats, that's the definition of a wave.  I believe that when GWB lost 31 seats in 2006, he called a thumping of the GOP.     Hell, the Dems even took a seat in OK.  What was the net flip in governors?  7?

The one big negative with the Dems is if Nelson loses in Fla.  They were counting to retain that.   Beto and Abrams were long shots.   Honestly Gillum is actually another big loss for the Dems.   

What's really interesting is it Nelson somehow pulls it off in Florida and the racist loses in Mississippi, then republicans end up with a net gain of 0. With that map, that's incredible.

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Js1

Js1 85,353

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I understand that Dems were slightly depressed on Tuesday but the elections are turning out to meet the good-to-great expectations.   If they flip between 36-38 GOP seats, that's the definition of a wave.  I believe that when GWB lost 31 seats in 2006, he called a thumping of the GOP.     Hell, the Dems even took a seat in OK.  What was the net flip in governors?  7?

The one big negative with the Dems is if Nelson loses in Fla.  They were counting to retain that.   Beto and Abrams were long shots.   Honestly Gillum is actually another big loss for the Dems.   

Yeah, no to your first point.  It is absolutely a wave. 36-40 seats is a wave, especially considering the # of seats in play and the extreme gerrymandering they had to overcome. CNN is doing a "Reassessing the 2018 Election" special on Tuesday, which absolutely needs to be done.  Because so much of "omg this is NOT what the Democrats wanted" came about Tuesday evening while things were still in play.  It took a week to realize it truly was a wave.

And the Dems also took a seat in Kansas and possibly Utah.

36-40 seats

7 governorships

300+ state legislative seats

And flipped 2 Senate seats, basically putting the GOP back to where they were at the start of Trump presidency, prior to Doug Jones. Which keeps them in striking distance for the 2020 map but especially the 2022 map, when Murkowski, winner of 2020 AZ Special, Rubio, Grassley, Burr, Portman, Toomey, and Johnson are all up.

This is basically how stupid the Senate is:

2018 map - 24 D, 9 R

2020 map - 21 R, 12 D

2022 map - 21 R, 12 D

Edited by Js1
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