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2018 midterm gameday thread

Zonahorn

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3873

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I understand that Dems were slightly depressed on Tuesday but the elections are turning out to meet the good-to-great expectations.   If they flip between 36-38 GOP seats, that's the definition of a wave.  I believe that when GWB lost 31 seats in 2006, he called a thumping of the GOP.     Hell, the Dems even took a seat in OK.  What was the net flip in governors?  7?

The one big negative with the Dems is if Nelson loses in Fla.  They were counting to retain that.   Beto and Abrams were long shots.   Honestly Gillum is actually another big loss for the Dems.   

My mood was pretty down, but I've since perked up.  Florida will Florida until it is 20 feet underwater.  Nothing we can do about that.

 

 

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Js1
Js1

Counting all the votes is not voter fraud.  Please FUCK OFF with this narrative that counting outstanding votes is shady/unethical.  Suing to STOP votes being counted (looking at you, Arizona GOP) sho

Jim Tom Pinch
Jim Tom Pinch

Apologies for interrupting the Left Wing circle jerk in here.   Carry on.

Gil Bang
Gil Bang

Not "evenly", just well-gerrymandered to keep the GOP heads above water.

SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3873

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

2020 is a long way out but I wonder if the Trump "embrace" will be embraced by the House GOP and the Senators up for election.

I think in the House they will.  If they survived this election it means they are in a Trumpkin district, and they will deny that at their peril.  Senate maybe more up for debate.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I understand that Dems were slightly depressed on Tuesday but the elections are turning out to meet the good-to-great expectations.   If they flip between 36-38 GOP seats, that's the definition of a wave.  I believe that when GWB lost 31 seats in 2006, he called a thumping of the GOP.     Hell, the Dems even took a seat in OK.  What was the net flip in governors?  7?

The one big negative with the Dems is if Nelson loses in Fla.  They were counting to retain that.   Beto and Abrams were long shots.   Honestly Gillum is actually another big loss for the Dems.   

My outlook the past week or so would’ve been a lot better if we won Florida. Dems can’t ever seem to win the governor race. Very disappointing.

They did great in the house. The Dems have had to fight one of the most rigged house maps in history. Re-districting should favor them, especially since they netted 7 governorships. The gop will have a much tougher time winning in the 2020 decade.

Edited by Voldemort86
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Francisco 2.0

Francisco 2.0 32595

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

I think in the House they will.  If they survived this election it means they are in a Trumpkin district, and they will deny that at their peril.  Senate maybe more up for debate.

I fully suspect our President will be full on campaigning for 2020 starting mid-January, with 2-3 rallies per week.

 

Forget doing anything "presidential"; the only thing that makes him happy is standing in some building or hangar somewhere with a few thousand of his true believers chanting the usual shit.

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Js1

Js1 87185

Posted
Posted

BTW for those who spent Tuesday freaking out because "what a disappointing night" -

In the 6 days that have followed Election day:

  • Dems flipped 3 more House seats; GOP flipped 1 in Minnesota (D+2)
  • Of the remaining uncalled 10 races (per CNN), Dems are on track to flip anywhere from 6 to 9 of them (D+6-9)
  • Dems ended up holding Montana and are on the verge of picking up Arizona (D+1) while Florida is going to recount and Mississippi is going to runoff
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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34657

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Js1 said:

BTW for those who spent Tuesday freaking out because "what a disappointing night" -

In the 6 days that have followed Election day:

  • Dems flipped 3 more House seats; GOP flipped 1 in Minnesota (D+2)
  • Of the remaining uncalled 10 races (per CNN), Dems are on track to flip anywhere from 6 to 9 of them (D+6-9)
  • Dems ended up holding Montana and are on the verge of picking up Arizona (D+1) while Florida is going to recount and Mississippi is going to runoff

True, there's good news for Democrats, but there's no way that MS seat goes blue.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

I thought the definition of a wave was that every jump-ball broke one way (as opposed to the other). This seems more like a decent Democratic showing, not a failure and yet not the success everyone was hoping for. Same as last week on Tuesday.

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3873

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

I thought the definition of a wave was that every jump-ball broke one way (as opposed to the other). This seems more like a decent Democratic showing, not a failure and yet not the success everyone was hoping for. Same as last week on Tuesday.

that's super dumb.  every jump ball going one way (e.g., the R+10 districts) would just lead the next level of things to be the jump balls (e.g., the R+12 districts).

 

Quote
  • 16 percent of respondents said this was the first time they had voted in a midterm election. Of that group, 62 percent voted for Democrats and 36 percent voted for Republicans.

Interesting nugget from 538.  Probably about what I would have guessed.  Maybe I would have said 7 in 10 would go D.

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3980

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

I thought the definition of a wave was that every jump-ball broke one way (as opposed to the other). This seems more like a decent Democratic showing, not a failure and yet not the success everyone was hoping for. Same as last week on Tuesday.

No.  It's when one party makes major gains and has minimal losses.  There is no requirement to go 100% on "every" competitive seat.

 

Edited by Patrick Bateman
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Posted
Posted
Just now, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

that's super dumb.  every jump ball going one way (e.g., the R+10 districts) would just lead the next level of things to be the jump balls (e.g., the R+12 districts).

 

Interesting nugget from 538.  Probably about what I would have guessed.  Maybe I would have said 7 in 10 would go D.

Yea I guess so, and I should add it wasn't my definition it was just something I heard on the radio when a pundit was being interviewed about what to expect with the upcoming wave or whatever. I'm happy to call what happened last week a blue wave if that is what we all agreed happened.

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Js1

Js1 87185

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

I thought the definition of a wave was that every jump-ball broke one way (as opposed to the other). This seems more like a decent Democratic showing, not a failure and yet not the success everyone was hoping for. Same as last week on Tuesday.

Every single tossup is not going to go one way. In some cases, local quirks > wave, especially in House races. Such as PA1 with a bad D candidate. If you take the RCP list of tossups, 70% went Democrat. 

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted

From a daikykos post showing the trend from 2012 to 2016 to 2018 in some key Texas confressional distrcts.

District Area 2012 result 2016 result 2018 result

TX-02Houston suburbs R+27 R+9 R+7.6

TX-03Dallas suburbs R+30 R+14 R+10

TX-06Dallas sub(ex)urbs R+17 R+12 R+7.7

TX-07Houston R+21 D+1 D+4.5 

TX-10Houston-Austin R+20 R+9 R+4

TX-21Austin-San Antonio-rural R+22 R+10 R+2.8

TX-22Houston suburbs R+25 R+8 R+5

TX-23Rio Grande Valley R+2.6 D+3.4 R+0.5

TX-24Dallas suburbs R+22 R+6 R+3.2 

TX-25Austin-rural R+22 R+15 R+8.9

TX-31Round Rock R+21 R+13 R+3.1

TX-32Dallas and suburbs R+15.5 D+2 D+6.3

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13731

Posted
Posted (edited)

I agree that Scott has legitimate complaints about how elections are run in some of their counties.  It's probably bad in many FL counties but the other counties might be small enough to make it work.  We should all expect the election process to be transparent and complete.  However Scott loses credibility since he's the freaking governor.  He's had a long time to push these counties to be better prepared.  He could have given them funds or worked to ensure they meet standards.  Instead he just waits for the inevitable problems to occur.

I saw on TV this morning that one of the problems of the recount is that the ballot is multi-page scantron.  In order to only recount the 3 contested races, they have to separate the 1st page from the rest of the ballot.  Then they can run the stacks of page 1 through the vote counting machines.  The page separation is creating the process slowdown.

 

 

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I agree that Scott has legitimate complaints about how elections are run in some of their counties.  It's probably bad in many FL counties but the other counties might be small enough to make it work.  We should all expect the election process to be transparent and complete.  However Scott loses credibility since he's the freaking governor.  He's had a long time to push these counties to be better prepared.  He could have given them funds or worked to ensure they meet standards.  Instead he just waits for the inevitable problems to occur.

I saw on TV this morning that one of the problems of the recount is that the ballot is multi-page scantron.  In order to only recount the 3 contested races, they have to separate the 1st page from the rest of the ballot.  Then they can run the stacks of page 1 through the vote counting machines.  The page separation is creating the process slowdown.

 

 

I bet gillum would’ve fixed it.

 

the voting in that state sucks so bad because they haven’t had a Democratic Governor for the last 20 years to address it. Repubs don’t believe in technology and science. Not a good state to have a Republican Governor, but oh fucking well.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18324

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I agree that Scott has legitimate complaints about how elections are run in some of their counties.  It's probably bad in many FL counties but the other counties might be small enough to make it work.  We should all expect the election process to be transparent and complete.  However Scott loses credibility since he's the freaking governor.  He's had a long time to push these counties to be better prepared.  He could have given them funds or worked to ensure they meet standards.  Instead he just waits for the inevitable problems to occur.

I saw on TV this morning that one of the problems of the recount is that the ballot is multi-page scantron.  In order to only recount the 3 contested races, they have to separate the 1st page from the rest of the ballot.  Then they can run the stacks of page 1 through the vote counting machines.  The page separation is creating the process slowdown.

 

 

That doesn't make any sense. Why not just scan everything in and only report on the 3 races? 

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3873

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Posted

I saw the ballots for Boward County where there was severe undervoting for the senate race.  The ballot was created by a Tier 1 Incompetent.  My money is on people simply didn't see the senate race on there so they didn't fill it out because it was designed poorly. 

There is something like a 3% undervote there.  I can see 1 of 33 people missing it all together.

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scottsins

scottsins 2047

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

I saw the ballots for Boward County where there was severe undervoting for the senate race.  The ballot was created by a Tier 1 Incompetent.  My money is on people simply didn't see the senate race on there so they didn't fill it out because it was designed poorly. 

There is something like a 3% undervote there.  I can see 1 of 33 people missing it all together.

I've been hearing this claim, and it seems like a plausible explanation for the discrepancy.  Is there a good illustration of the ballot design issue anywhere?

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3873

Posted
Posted

Here it is.  https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/something-looks-weird-in-broward-county-heres-what-we-know-about-a-possible-florida-recount/

Can't embed it.  Basically, it has instructions on the left, big governor's election in the middle with a lot of space and clearly drawing your eye, taking up half the page.  Oops, did you not see the senate election taking up two inches underneath the instructions?

 

 

 

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Mdhorn

Mdhorn 6166

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

that's super dumb.  every jump ball going one way (e.g., the R+10 districts) would just lead the next level of things to be the jump balls (e.g., the R+12 districts).

 

Interesting nugget from 538.  Probably about what I would have guessed.  Maybe I would have said 7 in 10 would go D.

But all we've been hearing about is how Trump's approval rating was in the high 40s percentile. Guess they were wrong. 

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Mdhorn

Mdhorn 6166

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I agree that Scott has legitimate complaints about how elections are run in some of their counties.  It's probably bad in many FL counties but the other counties might be small enough to make it work.  We should all expect the election process to be transparent and complete.  However Scott loses credibility since he's the freaking governor.  He's had a long time to push these counties to be better prepared.  He could have given them funds or worked to ensure they meet standards.  Instead he just waits for the inevitable problems to occur.

I saw on TV this morning that one of the problems of the recount is that the ballot is multi-page scantron.  In order to only recount the 3 contested races, they have to separate the 1st page from the rest of the ballot.  Then they can run the stacks of page 1 through the vote counting machines.  The page separation is creating the process slowdown.

 

 

It's because the problems have always favored Republicans . Till now. 

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Captainant

Captainant 28539

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

I thought the definition of a wave was that every jump-ball broke one way (as opposed to the other). This seems more like a decent Democratic showing, not a failure and yet not the success everyone was hoping for. Same as last week on Tuesday.

In terms of votes, it WAS a wave election. However, due to gerrymandering, the actual electoral effect is significantly muted.

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Js1

Js1 87185

Posted
Posted (edited)

Pima added 16,700 and has ~20k left

This batch was Sinema +25 (11 points better than overall county vote), pushing her lead another +4k to 35,800 about an hour before Maricopa dumps some votes.

Also pushed the Dem. candidate for SOS back into the lead by ~3500 votes.  Underrated gains from the Blue Wave are SOS and AG positions.

Edited by Js1
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13731

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Here it is.  https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/something-looks-weird-in-broward-county-heres-what-we-know-about-a-possible-florida-recount/

Can't embed it.  Basically, it has instructions on the left, big governor's election in the middle with a lot of space and clearly drawing your eye, taking up half the page.  Oops, did you not see the senate election taking up two inches underneath the instructions?

It's not the entire Broward County that had the big problem but only the small part of the county in FL-24.  See NYT graphic below:

KVrWXqMR_o.jpg

It would seem the design for those precincts either was so poor that people missed the Senate vote, or the vote tabulation machines there failed to count the votes.  But the rest of the county had a persistent undervote for Senator.  But then again perhaps some people wanted to vote for Gillum (or DeSantis but unlikely) and didn't care about Scott/Nelson.  Who knows without seeing the actual ballots.

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