2018 midterm gameday thread

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

49 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I understand that Dems were slightly depressed on Tuesday but the elections are turning out to meet the good-to-great expectations.   If they flip between 36-38 GOP seats, that's the definition of a wave.  I believe that when GWB lost 31 seats in 2006, he called a thumping of the GOP.     Hell, the Dems even took a seat in OK.  What was the net flip in governors?  7?

The one big negative with the Dems is if Nelson loses in Fla.  They were counting to retain that.   Beto and Abrams were long shots.   Honestly Gillum is actually another big loss for the Dems.   

My mood was pretty down, but I've since perked up.  Florida will Florida until it is 20 feet underwater.  Nothing we can do about that.

 

 

[Mdhorn 5,901]

4 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

My mood was pretty down, but I've since perked up.  Florida will Florida until it is 20 feet underwater.  Nothing we can do about that.

 

 

or they're medicare/caid is cut. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,388]

2020 is a long way out but I wonder if the Trump "embrace" will be embraced by the House GOP and the Senators up for election.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

22 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

2020 is a long way out but I wonder if the Trump "embrace" will be embraced by the House GOP and the Senators up for election.

I think in the House they will.  If they survived this election it means they are in a Trumpkin district, and they will deny that at their peril.  Senate maybe more up for debate.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I understand that Dems were slightly depressed on Tuesday but the elections are turning out to meet the good-to-great expectations.   If they flip between 36-38 GOP seats, that's the definition of a wave.  I believe that when GWB lost 31 seats in 2006, he called a thumping of the GOP.     Hell, the Dems even took a seat in OK.  What was the net flip in governors?  7?

The one big negative with the Dems is if Nelson loses in Fla.  They were counting to retain that.   Beto and Abrams were long shots.   Honestly Gillum is actually another big loss for the Dems.   

My outlook the past week or so would’ve been a lot better if we won Florida. Dems can’t ever seem to win the governor race. Very disappointing.

They did great in the house. The Dems have had to fight one of the most rigged house maps in history. Re-districting should favor them, especially since they netted 7 governorships. The gop will have a much tougher time winning in the 2020 decade.

Edited November 12, 2018 by Voldemort86

[Francisco 2.0 32,290]

3 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

I think in the House they will.  If they survived this election it means they are in a Trumpkin district, and they will deny that at their peril.  Senate maybe more up for debate.

I fully suspect our President will be full on campaigning for 2020 starting mid-January, with 2-3 rallies per week.

 

Forget doing anything "presidential"; the only thing that makes him happy is standing in some building or hangar somewhere with a few thousand of his true believers chanting the usual shit.

[Js1 85,009]

BTW for those who spent Tuesday freaking out because "what a disappointing night" -

In the 6 days that have followed Election day:

• Dems flipped 3 more House seats; GOP flipped 1 in Minnesota (D+2)
• Of the remaining uncalled 10 races (per CNN), Dems are on track to flip anywhere from 6 to 9 of them (D+6-9)
• Dems ended up holding Montana and are on the verge of picking up Arizona (D+1) while Florida is going to recount and Mississippi is going to runoff

[Pancho 44,186]

 

[Huckleberry 32,663]

18 minutes ago, Js1 said:

BTW for those who spent Tuesday freaking out because "what a disappointing night" -

In the 6 days that have followed Election day:

• Dems flipped 3 more House seats; GOP flipped 1 in Minnesota (D+2)
• Of the remaining uncalled 10 races (per CNN), Dems are on track to flip anywhere from 6 to 9 of them (D+6-9)
• Dems ended up holding Montana and are on the verge of picking up Arizona (D+1) while Florida is going to recount and Mississippi is going to runoff

True, there's good news for Democrats, but there's no way that MS seat goes blue.

[Guest]

I thought the definition of a wave was that every jump-ball broke one way (as opposed to the other). This seems more like a decent Democratic showing, not a failure and yet not the success everyone was hoping for. Same as last week on Tuesday.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

1 minute ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

I thought the definition of a wave was that every jump-ball broke one way (as opposed to the other). This seems more like a decent Democratic showing, not a failure and yet not the success everyone was hoping for. Same as last week on Tuesday.

that's super dumb.  every jump ball going one way (e.g., the R+10 districts) would just lead the next level of things to be the jump balls (e.g., the R+12 districts).

 

Quote

• 16 percent of respondents said this was the first time they had voted in a midterm election. Of that group, 62 percent voted for Democrats and 36 percent voted for Republicans.

Interesting nugget from 538.  Probably about what I would have guessed.  Maybe I would have said 7 in 10 would go D.

[Patrick Bateman 3,874]

5 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

I thought the definition of a wave was that every jump-ball broke one way (as opposed to the other). This seems more like a decent Democratic showing, not a failure and yet not the success everyone was hoping for. Same as last week on Tuesday.

No.  It's when one party makes major gains and has minimal losses.  There is no requirement to go 100% on "every" competitive seat.

 

Edited November 12, 2018 by Patrick Bateman

[Guest]

Just now, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

that's super dumb.  every jump ball going one way (e.g., the R+10 districts) would just lead the next level of things to be the jump balls (e.g., the R+12 districts).

 

Interesting nugget from 538.  Probably about what I would have guessed.  Maybe I would have said 7 in 10 would go D.

Yea I guess so, and I should add it wasn't my definition it was just something I heard on the radio when a pundit was being interviewed about what to expect with the upcoming wave or whatever. I'm happy to call what happened last week a blue wave if that is what we all agreed happened.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

yeah, my tone was uncalled for.

[Js1 85,009]

22 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

I thought the definition of a wave was that every jump-ball broke one way (as opposed to the other). This seems more like a decent Democratic showing, not a failure and yet not the success everyone was hoping for. Same as last week on Tuesday.

Every single tossup is not going to go one way. In some cases, local quirks > wave, especially in House races. Such as PA1 with a bad D candidate. If you take the RCP list of tossups, 70% went Democrat. 

[RayDog 682]

From a daikykos post showing the trend from 2012 to 2016 to 2018 in some key Texas confressional distrcts.

District Area 2012 result 2016 result 2018 result

TX-02Houston suburbs R+27 R+9 R+7.6

TX-03Dallas suburbs R+30 R+14 R+10

TX-06Dallas sub(ex)urbs R+17 R+12 R+7.7

TX-07Houston R+21 D+1 D+4.5 

TX-10Houston-Austin R+20 R+9 R+4

TX-21Austin-San Antonio-rural R+22 R+10 R+2.8

TX-22Houston suburbs R+25 R+8 R+5

TX-23Rio Grande Valley R+2.6 D+3.4 R+0.5

TX-24Dallas suburbs R+22 R+6 R+3.2 

TX-25Austin-rural R+22 R+15 R+8.9

TX-31Round Rock R+21 R+13 R+3.1

TX-32Dallas and suburbs R+15.5 D+2 D+6.3

[Js1 85,009]

Surge is coming any day now. Still underperforming what she needs  

 

[Gil Bang 25,843]

 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

23 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Surge is coming any day now. Still underperforming what she needs  

 

Should be another 40K Maricopa dump today?

[Loco 3,752]

meanwhile...

I wonder if 'publicans will be outraged

 

(Bay County is deeply red and was pecker slapped by that last hurricane)

[GSU&UT 1,798]

How close is Nelson? Are there still a lot of outstanding ballots?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,388]

I agree that Scott has legitimate complaints about how elections are run in some of their counties.  It's probably bad in many FL counties but the other counties might be small enough to make it work.  We should all expect the election process to be transparent and complete.  However Scott loses credibility since he's the freaking governor.  He's had a long time to push these counties to be better prepared.  He could have given them funds or worked to ensure they meet standards.  Instead he just waits for the inevitable problems to occur.

I saw on TV this morning that one of the problems of the recount is that the ballot is multi-page scantron.  In order to only recount the 3 contested races, they have to separate the 1st page from the rest of the ballot.  Then they can run the stacks of page 1 through the vote counting machines.  The page separation is creating the process slowdown.

 

 

Edited November 12, 2018 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Voldemort86 2,259]

6 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I agree that Scott has legitimate complaints about how elections are run in some of their counties.  It's probably bad in many FL counties but the other counties might be small enough to make it work.  We should all expect the election process to be transparent and complete.  However Scott loses credibility since he's the freaking governor.  He's had a long time to push these counties to be better prepared.  He could have given them funds or worked to ensure they meet standards.  Instead he just waits for the inevitable problems to occur.

I saw on TV this morning that one of the problems of the recount is that the ballot is multi-page scantron.  In order to only recount the 3 contested races, they have to separate the 1st page from the rest of the ballot.  Then they can run the stacks of page 1 through the vote counting machines.  The page separation is creating the process slowdown.

 

 

I bet gillum would’ve fixed it.

 

the voting in that state sucks so bad because they haven’t had a Democratic Governor for the last 20 years to address it. Repubs don’t believe in technology and science. Not a good state to have a Republican Governor, but oh fucking well.

[Dahobbs 17,408]

13 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I agree that Scott has legitimate complaints about how elections are run in some of their counties.  It's probably bad in many FL counties but the other counties might be small enough to make it work.  We should all expect the election process to be transparent and complete.  However Scott loses credibility since he's the freaking governor.  He's had a long time to push these counties to be better prepared.  He could have given them funds or worked to ensure they meet standards.  Instead he just waits for the inevitable problems to occur.

I saw on TV this morning that one of the problems of the recount is that the ballot is multi-page scantron.  In order to only recount the 3 contested races, they have to separate the 1st page from the rest of the ballot.  Then they can run the stacks of page 1 through the vote counting machines.  The page separation is creating the process slowdown.

 

 

That doesn't make any sense. Why not just scan everything in and only report on the 3 races? 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

I saw the ballots for Boward County where there was severe undervoting for the senate race.  The ballot was created by a Tier 1 Incompetent.  My money is on people simply didn't see the senate race on there so they didn't fill it out because it was designed poorly. 

There is something like a 3% undervote there.  I can see 1 of 33 people missing it all together.

[scottsins 1,951]

9 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

I saw the ballots for Boward County where there was severe undervoting for the senate race.  The ballot was created by a Tier 1 Incompetent.  My money is on people simply didn't see the senate race on there so they didn't fill it out because it was designed poorly. 

There is something like a 3% undervote there.  I can see 1 of 33 people missing it all together.

I've been hearing this claim, and it seems like a plausible explanation for the discrepancy.  Is there a good illustration of the ballot design issue anywhere?

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

I saw it this morning.  I'll see if I can find it again.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

Here it is.  https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/something-looks-weird-in-broward-county-heres-what-we-know-about-a-possible-florida-recount/

Can't embed it.  Basically, it has instructions on the left, big governor's election in the middle with a lot of space and clearly drawing your eye, taking up half the page.  Oops, did you not see the senate election taking up two inches underneath the instructions?

 

 

 

[Js1 85,009]

That is ass 

[retread 2,951]

 

[Tom 2,959]

50 minutes ago, Pancho Negro said:

 

 

On an unrelated note, this tweet just triggered Fort Worthians by using the S word.

[Mdhorn 5,901]

2 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

that's super dumb.  every jump ball going one way (e.g., the R+10 districts) would just lead the next level of things to be the jump balls (e.g., the R+12 districts).

 

Interesting nugget from 538.  Probably about what I would have guessed.  Maybe I would have said 7 in 10 would go D.

But all we've been hearing about is how Trump's approval rating was in the high 40s percentile. Guess they were wrong. 

[Mdhorn 5,901]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I agree that Scott has legitimate complaints about how elections are run in some of their counties.  It's probably bad in many FL counties but the other counties might be small enough to make it work.  We should all expect the election process to be transparent and complete.  However Scott loses credibility since he's the freaking governor.  He's had a long time to push these counties to be better prepared.  He could have given them funds or worked to ensure they meet standards.  Instead he just waits for the inevitable problems to occur.

I saw on TV this morning that one of the problems of the recount is that the ballot is multi-page scantron.  In order to only recount the 3 contested races, they have to separate the 1st page from the rest of the ballot.  Then they can run the stacks of page 1 through the vote counting machines.  The page separation is creating the process slowdown.

 

 

It's because the problems have always favored Republicans . Till now. 

[Captainant 27,250]

2 hours ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

I thought the definition of a wave was that every jump-ball broke one way (as opposed to the other). This seems more like a decent Democratic showing, not a failure and yet not the success everyone was hoping for. Same as last week on Tuesday.

In terms of votes, it WAS a wave election. However, due to gerrymandering, the actual electoral effect is significantly muted.

[Js1 85,009]

Pima added 16,700 and has ~20k left

This batch was Sinema +25 (11 points better than overall county vote), pushing her lead another +4k to 35,800 about an hour before Maricopa dumps some votes.

Also pushed the Dem. candidate for SOS back into the lead by ~3500 votes.  Underrated gains from the Blue Wave are SOS and AG positions.

Edited November 12, 2018 by Js1

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,355]

Anyone know anything about this?

 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,388]

1 hour ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Here it is.  https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/something-looks-weird-in-broward-county-heres-what-we-know-about-a-possible-florida-recount/

Can't embed it.  Basically, it has instructions on the left, big governor's election in the middle with a lot of space and clearly drawing your eye, taking up half the page.  Oops, did you not see the senate election taking up two inches underneath the instructions?

It's not the entire Broward County that had the big problem but only the small part of the county in FL-24.  See NYT graphic below:

It would seem the design for those precincts either was so poor that people missed the Senate vote, or the vote tabulation machines there failed to count the votes.  But the rest of the county had a persistent undervote for Senator.  But then again perhaps some people wanted to vote for Gillum (or DeSantis but unlikely) and didn't care about Scott/Nelson.  Who knows without seeing the actual ballots.

[Patrick Bateman 3,874]

CA49 finally called..... another flip.  Expected.

 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

It really is amazing how close so many of these races are.  Data analysts / politician teams are unbelievably talented at determining what makes each of us tick and squeezing every last vote out of us.

[Gil Bang 25,843]

6 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

CA49 finally called..... another flip.  Expected.

 

Levin left San Diego for DC  yesterday...to look for a house, and meet with Dem leadership. He was claiming victory several days back. 

[Js1 85,009]

Sinema’s lead went up 2,000 more votes after today. 38k after Maricopa and Coconino dumped votes

This batch was 8 points better for Sinema. Game over man (+11)

[Voldemort86 2,259]

8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Sinema’s lead went up 2,000 more votes after today. 38k after Maricopa and Coconino dumped votes

This batch was 8 points better for Sinema. Game over man (+11)

I still can’t believe it’s not called. 

[Patrick Bateman 3,874]

Almost 2 points.... they need to call it.

[Js1 85,009]

 

[Js1 85,009]

AP calls it

 

[Js1 85,009]

She conceded. She doesn’t care she’ll get appointed to the McCain seat when Kyl steps down next month to give McSally seniority 

 

[Gil Bang 25,843]

Unlike the pussies in FL, she's taking the results like a grownup, instead of crying foul.   Good for her.  

[Ted Lange 15,975]

 

 

[Patrick Bateman 3,874]

Now, the big race in AZ is this.....

 

 

[Js1 85,009]

She’s toast