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2018 midterm gameday thread

Zonahorn

By Zonahorn
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Js1
Js1

Counting all the votes is not voter fraud.  Please FUCK OFF with this narrative that counting outstanding votes is shady/unethical.  Suing to STOP votes being counted (looking at you, Arizona GOP) sho

Jim Tom Pinch
Jim Tom Pinch

Apologies for interrupting the Left Wing circle jerk in here.   Carry on.

Gil Bang
Gil Bang

Not "evenly", just well-gerrymandered to keep the GOP heads above water.

Whitman

Whitman 694

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Kaine isn't any great shakes, but better than Stewart. 

I couldn't vote for him (I keep my residency at the farm in Va) simply because he climbed in bed with Hillary last go around.  I will always go third party or leave it blank if someone has any taint at all from her/Bill.  

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9083

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Whitman said:

I couldn't vote for him (I keep my residency at the farm in Va) simply because he climbed in bed with Hillary last go around.  I will always go third party or leave it blank if someone has any taint at all from her/Bill.  

Held my nose with that vote.

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G650

G650 13990

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Whitman said:

I couldn't vote for him (I keep my residency at the farm in Va) simply because he climbed in bed with Hillary last go around.  I will always go third party or leave it blank if someone has any taint at all from her/Bill.  

I mean, if that's what's keeping you off Kaine, then I'm not sure what to say. That's way down the list of his terribleness. Start with his utter ineptitude as our governor, and work down from there.

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Js1

Js1 85056

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, G650 said:

I mean, if that's what's keeping you off Kaine, then I'm not sure what to say. That's way down the list of his terribleness. Start with his utter ineptitude as our governor, and work down from there.

And utter blandness

And terrible dad jokes

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Whitman

Whitman 694

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, G650 said:

I mean, if that's what's keeping you off Kaine, then I'm not sure what to say. That's way down the list of his terribleness. Start with his utter ineptitude as our governor, and work down from there.

We all have our lines, whether they are rational/logical or not.  Heck, there are people on this board who would not bang Carrie Underwood because she is an Okie. That' sir, is commitment to hatred there....

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32685

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Whitman said:

We all have our lines, whether they are rational/logical or not.  Heck, there are people on this board who would not bang Carrie Underwood because she is an Okie. That' sir, is commitment to hatred there....

Those people have never heard of the term "hate fuck."

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Js1

Js1 85056

Posted
Posted
Just now, Huckleberry said:

So what's the hold up on calling CA-48? Lots of outstanding provisional or absentee ballots?

VBM in California.  Everything just had to be postmarked by Tuesday.  I would bet some of these races may not be called until Thanksgiving-ish.

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Js1

Js1 85056

Posted
Posted

So Florida officially headed for a recount?

Motherfuck, get some Brooks Brothers giftcards to Matt Schlap and Brett Kavanaugh and get those astroturfing mofos down to Florida, stat!  Anyone seen Katherine Harris?

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G650

G650 13990

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Whitman said:

  Heck, there are people on this board who would not bang Carrie Underwood because she is an Okie. That' sir, is commitment to hatred there....

Well, mental illness is whole different level man...

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Js1

Js1 85056

Posted
Posted

Y'know....

For all the talk of "OMG PELOSI IS SPEAKER AGAIN!," she let dozens of candidates trash her/say they wouldn't vote for her. "Just win, baby."  Democrats picked up the House.

But Chuck Schumer oversaw a Senate wipeout.  Why is he not being replaced as Senate Minority Leader?

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GopherRock

GopherRock 1765

Posted
Posted

The bad news from Wisconsin is that some of the winners of this year's special elections in their Legislature were sent off in the general. 

The good news is that Evers can veto whatever Legislature district map their GOP can come up with. It's a long game win, but they should get better district maps for the 2022 cycle than what they faced in 2012.

I think it'll be a lot like Mark Dayton's first term in 2011. 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23375

Posted
Posted (edited)
Just now, RomaVicta said:

It would be nice if somebody ran as a Republican, at least what Republicans used to be decades ago. I might even vote for one.

There has not been a republican running in a national campaign who wasn't totally full of shit during my voting lifetime. 

Edited by Anastasis
negatives and tense are hard
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104465

Posted
Posted (edited)

Not that anyone asked for it, but here's my take on yesterday:

NATIONALLY: the Dems did about as well as was reasonably expected, to slightly LESS well than was reasonably expected.  House seats -- that broke about as expected.  Senate seats - they ended up with one less than I expected (I thought that Florida or Mo. would be Dem wins).  Governor's seats, about as expected, again, the only mild surprise to me was not winning Florida.  On a personal level, I found Florida really disappointing.  And I had hoped that Abrams could force a runoff in Ga.  She came DAMNED close, and I think that there may continue to be some questions (litigation?) about voter suppression, because it may have been the difference-maker.  We'll see.  But the big takeaway in terms of change is simply the flip of the House, and that it is by enough of a margin for there to be a strong Dem coalition pursuing its agenda.  Whether they'll fuck up that agenda remains to be seen.  Personally, I enjoyed seeing Walker and Kobach lose.

TEXAS: Beto beat my expectations.  He lost by 2.8%, I expected him to lose by 4-6%.  Yeah, I wanted him to win, but this is a long game.  Beto showed, for the first time in 25 years or so, that Texas can be a battleground state.  But to be a battleground state, you need one REALLY important ingredient: A BATTLE.  Beto showed that if the Democrats can put up a strong candidate at the top of the ballot, they can have a puncher's chance.  And that chance will only improve in elections to come.  I've said that Texas didn't have a legit chance of flipping until 2028-2030.  I might bump that back two years, to 2026-28.  To me, the telling races are State Supreme Court, because that's really a proxy for party sympathy -- 99% of people don't know anything about the candidate, they just vote the party.  And the breakdown in those races is around 53.5 to 46.5.  A 7 point spread.  Trump beat Hillary here by 9 points.

And for less popular GOP leaders, the margin was even lower.  Dan Patrick won by 4.2%. Paxton won by 3.2%.  Lesson there: if you have an unlikable GOP candidate, and a reasonably likable Dem who actually campaigns, some of these offices could be winnable 4 years from now.

And let's not forget what we saw in judicial races -- statewide, major courts of appeal were a big story.  A HUGE democrat flip.  The 3rd court, based in Austin but extending into heavily GOP near west Texas, had 6 GOP justices yesterday.  Today, it has 2, and 4 new Dem justices.  Those races were all decide by 11-12 point margins.  That's big.

The Texas Democrat party needs to learn from this election, and needs to not just continue its energy, but do everything it can to INCREASE it.  Continue strong candidate recruitment (seriously, Beto and MJ Heger were GREAT candidates).  And don't pull any more Lupe Valdez bullshit (what a waste).  And contest EVERYTHING.

 

BUT, my Brisket takeaway: we saw quite clearly that a candidacy based on xenophobia and hatred wins (Desantis, Kemp).  Expect more of it.  A lot more of it.  Because it works, and will continue to work.  If we're comfortable having a giant tumor of hate stuck inside us, that tumor WILL kill us, sooner rather than later.  It's our original sin, and eventually, it WILL kill us.

Edited by Brisketexan
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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29756

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Macanudo said:

They could do the first without cheer leading.   Oh, and cut the projection shit.  I swear, more than once they were projecting D winners with less than 10% of the votes cast.   Then, when the margin swung back in the Rs favor, the hang dog look on the studio crews was fabulous.   I guess it was funny to watch but incredibly sad at the same time. 

I thought I'd enjoy watching the returns last night. I hadn't really devoted an evening to that since the Bush-Gore fiasco.

It's all too breathless and urgent. The guy on CNN with the touch screen could induce an epileptic fit. We switched to Making a Murder 2 for the evening. I checked here to see if Beto won and if things were going as predicted with the house and senate. 

I sort of hate our whole process from campaigning to coverage.

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Bat Guano

Bat Guano 359

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Or just read about who won the next day.  

This is the right answer. I used to like staying up to watch the results coming in, and gradually lost interest in the minute-by-minute horserace stuff. Find out the final result whenever it comes in; whether someone was ahead or behind at midnight don't make a shit.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18606

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

BUT, my Brisket takeaway: we saw quite clearly that a candidacy based on xenophobia and hatred wins (Desantis, Kemp).  Expect more of it.  A lot more of it.  Because it works, and will continue to work.  If we're comfortable having a giant tumor of hate stuck inside us, that tumor WILL kill us, sooner rather than later.  It's our original sin, and eventually, it WILL kill us.

This is the United States of America. If you know our history, this is not surprising in the least. Race and white grievance is the undercurrent for literally everything in this country.

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Js1

Js1 85056

Posted
Posted

So it appears to be:

Suburban vote (51% of the vote versus 49% in 2016) - D/R tie at 49% each, Trump was +4

Urban vote (32% of the vote versus 34% in 2016) - D+33, Hillary +26

Rural vote (17% of the vote - same as 2016) - R+14, Trump was +27

 

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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29756

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

my Brisket takeaway: we saw quite clearly that a candidacy based on xenophobia and hatred wins (Desantis, Kemp).  Expect more of it.  A lot more of it.  Because it works, and will continue to work.  If we're comfortable having a giant tumor of hate stuck inside us, that tumor WILL kill us, sooner rather than later.  It's our original sin, and eventually, it WILL kill us.

I'll go full narcissist in homage to dear leader and repost something here that I posted on the Trump thread.

I have the sick feeling that this is a win for [the Trumpists].

In the frame of traditional politics, sure, this looks like a win for the Dems and anti-Trumpists. But things are not traditional right now. 

The United States electorate did not have a general gag reflex to Trumpism's white nationalism and fascist attitudes towards the press, law enforcement, and the weak.

All Trumpists lost was the house? That's it? Yay Dems. Whoopee.

In a healthy America, Trumpists never gain power. If they do slip into power, they get swept away by a generally disgusted electorate. 

That didn't happen.

A massive section of the electorate are dedicated to this man and his rhetoric. When he moves on, we'll likely get someone more dangerous taking the reins.

There's a reason the deplorables are happy this morning. By not being repudiated absolutely, they feel vindicated.

Sickeningly, they are.

 
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G650

G650 13990

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

There has not been a republican running in a national campaign who wasn't totally full of shit during my voting lifetime. 

The Elder Bush was pretty straight other than the read my lips bit. And my stickman Bob Dole.

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JBJ

JBJ 3647

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Js1 said:

For all the talk of "OMG PELOSI IS SPEAKER AGAIN!," she let dozens of candidates trash her/say they wouldn't vote for her. "Just win, baby."  Democrats picked up the House.

The Never-Nancies have the votes to shut her out, but probably not the political leverage to put someone else up.  And they can't all abstain, or the Reps will take the speakership.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104465

Posted
Posted (edited)

^^^^I agree with Roma's take.

2 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

The United States electorate did not have a general gag reflex to Trumpism's white nationalism and fascist attitudes towards the press, law enforcement, and the weak.

This is key.  One shouldn't just say "I prefer not" when white nationalism and fascism are put on your plate.  A healthy person immediately fucking vomits and shoves that shit to the floor.  We haven't done that.  Because -- here's the key takeaway -- we like it.

Edited by Brisketexan
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DanTheHorn

DanTheHorn 4893

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Y'know....

For all the talk of "OMG PELOSI IS SPEAKER AGAIN!," she let dozens of candidates trash her/say they wouldn't vote for her. "Just win, baby."  Democrats picked up the House.

But Chuck Schumer oversaw a Senate wipeout.  Why is he not being replaced as Senate Minority Leader?

No it was not a wipe out, since a wipe out means things were in your favor and you lost. Claire McCaskill and Joe Donnelly were suppose to lose last time if it were not for the "Legitimate Rape" type tee party candidates from the last cycle. They ran against better candidates this time and lost. I thought Florida would go to Rick Scott before Gillum but Scott held and Gillum made it close. The one surprise was the governors race in Florida and Ron DeSantis winning more comfortably then Rick Scott.

Texas was closer than the 6 to 9 points that had steadily been reported. So no wipe out there in that race. Nevada was a pickup and Arizona will probably stay red but by a very small margin.

 

 

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Bat Guano

Bat Guano 359

Posted
Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

I'll go full narcissist in homage to dear leader and repost something here that I posted on the Trump thread.

I have the sick feeling that this is a win for [the Trumpists].

In the frame of traditional politics, sure, this looks like a win for the Dems and anti-Trumpists. But things are not traditional right now. 

The United States electorate did not have a general gag reflex to Trumpism's white nationalism and fascist attitudes towards the press, law enforcement, and the weak.

All Trumpists lost was the house? That's it? Yay Dems. Whoopee.

In a healthy America, Trumpists never gain power. If they do slip into power, they get swept away by a generally disgusted electorate. 

That didn't happen.

A massive section of the electorate are dedicated to this man and his rhetoric. When he moves on, we'll likely get someone more dangerous taking the reins.

There's a reason the deplorables are happy this morning. By not being repudiated absolutely, they feel vindicated.

Sickeningly, they are.

 

Yeah, this is the same thing I'm feeling. This was not the decisive slap-down the Trumpkins deserved and the Republic needed. We may have taken an exit off the highway to autocracy, but we're still on the access road.

Edited by Bat Guano
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Js1

Js1 85056

Posted
Posted (edited)

NYT has D+27 right now.  Leading in: AZ-1, CA-49, WA-8, CA-25, CA-48, GA-6, NY-22, UT-4.  Not sure why these haven't been called or checked off yet by NYT.  If all holds, D+35 is your total.

228-207

Also the ME-2 going to the ranked choice voting, so that R+0.3 could flip as well.


Tester has also taken a 2,000 vote lead with 99% in.  I think he's going to hold on.

Edited by Js1
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AtticusFinch

AtticusFinch 155

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I know “muh moral victory” but Beto, Gillum, and Abrams are about as radical of candidates you can get in the South and they all went up against some powerful voter suppression forces and still almost pulled it off.

Yeah, I voted early in a precinct near my office instead of near my home because it was more convenient.   I was harassed by Democrats promoting their candidates.   I was so offended I almost left because of all the suppression but I stayed strong and cast my ballot.  I also kept an eye out for Russians trying to hack the machines that were strangely not connected to the internet. 

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Agent47

Agent47 157

Posted
Posted

Ha. I'm getting negged like crazy for calling Repubs ugly fat idiots.

I was kinda kidding but truthfully they so are. They're obese tards. Frothing slobbery fatheads. They absolutely are.

Rush Limbaugh IS in fact a big fat idiot.

And so is Trump. I stand by this. It is NOT fake news. I've been to Texas recently. Sat in a Whataburger. I've seen the truth.

 

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