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2018 midterm gameday thread

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,362

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Agree with this.  Colorado is a very gettable flip and maybe should be considered a most likely.  North Carolina has turned into a battleground state which Obama won.  Maine and Susan Collins is absolutely vulnerable.  Beyond that, it's all about the candidate.  I'd say Democrats look at Colorado, Maine, Zona, NC, Iowa, and Georgia as opportunities.  They'd love to run  a star from Kentucky to fuck Mitch McConnell up.  George Clooney doing anything?

Is North Carolina really in play?  Trump won 6 states by less than 4% - Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina.  The first three of those definitely flipped Tuesday.

 Arizona is a battleground state that maybe considered flipped - Trump personally campaigned for McSally, and given Sheriff Joe and all of those idiots, if they don’t send McSally to DC by a huge margin, it’s pretty clear Trump doesn’t have a magic touch there.  

Which leaves Florida with its ongoing recount. 

If NC is in play, Trump ain’t winning in 2020.  Hell, he’s not winning without WI, PA, and MI, but Arizona and NC would put it out of reach. 

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Js1
Js1

Counting all the votes is not voter fraud.  Please FUCK OFF with this narrative that counting outstanding votes is shady/unethical.  Suing to STOP votes being counted (looking at you, Arizona GOP) sho

Jim Tom Pinch
Jim Tom Pinch

Apologies for interrupting the Left Wing circle jerk in here.   Carry on.

Gil Bang
Gil Bang

Not "evenly", just well-gerrymandered to keep the GOP heads above water.

dcar00

dcar00 14,023

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Agent47 said:

Lol at Trump bitching about stolen elections in red States the fucking GOP controls.

Urban centers and dense population rich counties fucking hate you, Donald. You lost the popular vote in the 2016 election and the electoral college was both rigged and functionally obsolete.

You are an illegimate president and your power and influence is nil. You are a lame duck and you're headed for prison.

The whole world is laughing at you.

My advice is to "delete your account", and vanish.

LOL 2020 is going to suck for you. good luck

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G650

G650 13,990

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Is North Carolina really in play?  Trump won 6 states by less than 4% - Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina.  The first three of those definitely flipped Tuesday.

 Arizona is a battleground state that maybe considered flipped - Trump personally campaigned for McSally, and given Sheriff Joe and all of those idiots, if they don’t send McSally to DC by a huge margin, it’s pretty clear Trump doesn’t have a magic touch there.  

Which leaves Florida with its ongoing recount. 

If NC is in play, Trump ain’t winning in 2020.  Hell, he’s not winning without WI, PA, and MI, but Arizona and NC would put it out of reach. 

NC is definitely in play with the right candidate, but it's still one of the longer reaches. 

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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26,239

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Trump won’t be a factor for Sessions in Alabama.  

Questo. To lose as an R for Senator in Alabama, you gotta be pretty bad at politicking. Like Roy Moore bad. Roy Moore is the biggest nut I've ever seen run here, by an order of magnitude. A distant second would be Tim James, throwing out an "If elected I'll fire Nick Saban" joke on the eve of election. Tim James would have fumbled his way to a win over Doug Jones.

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Agent47

Agent47 157

Posted
Posted

Yeah. 2018 election was pretty good. Getting better as each vote is counted.

Counting votes and then adding them up correctly then tabulating a legitimate victor, that's called democracy.

An unrepresentative electoral college made even more unrepresentative by seditious Russian hacking/collusion, grotesque gerrymandering and felonious voter suppression is called a shit show.

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3,903

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Is North Carolina really in play?  Trump won 6 states by less than 4% - Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina.  The first three of those definitely flipped Tuesday.

 Arizona is a battleground state that maybe considered flipped - Trump personally campaigned for McSally, and given Sheriff Joe and all of those idiots, if they don’t send McSally to DC by a huge margin, it’s pretty clear Trump doesn’t have a magic touch there.  

Which leaves Florida with its ongoing recount. 

If NC is in play, Trump ain’t winning in 2020.  Hell, he’s not winning without WI, PA, and MI, but Arizona and NC would put it out of reach. 

I think it very in play, but that doesn't mean it will be easy to flip.  A few things about North Carolina.  First, the state has a bit over 10 million residents but two hubs have about 50% of the population, Charlotte metro (which covers a sliver of SC) which is about 2.5 million and Research Triangle or the Raleigh-Durham corridor which is home to about 2.2 million.  Stick Fayetteville in there and you're up to about 2.8 million.  Both of these areas have are thriving metro areas but are also educational hubs and therefore attract many educated out of staters in comparison to the rest of the state.  Second, North Carolina is disgustingly gerrymandered so despite voter turnout being +5 for Demos this round, state seats didn't change or there were no flips.  This will change as they've been sued to hell but it wasn't ready for this round of voting. 

That said, NC went to Obama in 2008 by half a point.  Flipped to Romney by only 2 points and went to Donald by 3.5 points.  However, since 2016 there has been a change in the feeling by Carolinians with respect to unhappiness with Trump.  In 2016, his approval rating in NC was 53% with a disapproval rating of only 35%.  To give context, his disapproval rating was 34% in Texas and 31% in Arkansas.  Forward to 2018, his approval rating was 49% -- not terrible considering how bad he's been.  But his disapproval rating rose to 47% this year.  So considering it's been a highly competitive state the past 3 presidential elections, Trump is becoming increasingly unpopular, it's population is slowly becoming more educated and urban, and Donald has 2 more years to fuck things up, I'd say it's highly in play.  Last Senate race in 2016 was +6 for the incumbent Burr, while his opponent was considered fairly meh.  Tillis barely won in 2014 by 1.5% over Hagan when Obama's approval ratings were near it's worst.  I think it's actually ripe to be flipped in a statewide election.... in a Presidential election and for Tillis' seat.  Gotta be the right candidates though.

Edited by Patrick Bateman
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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3,903

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

There’s still A LOT of Maricopa out. Like 300k. They won’t call it yet. Sinema also has a lot of outstanding votes friendly to her in Pima and Coconino. Pima isnt going to update until tuesfT 

Last I saw Maricopa were going to Sinema... not huge, but still.  Is that still the case?

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Js1

Js1 85,056

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Last I saw Maricopa were going to Sinema... not huge, but still.  Is that still the case?

The THOUGHT is that tomorrow’s update is more R friendly based on being late ballots returned in person. They think those votes will be similar to Election Day, which was R leaning. But Sinema keeps racking up votes. If tomorrow’s update increases the margin, it’s over. 

Most of today was early votes received leading up to the day before Election Day. 

Edited by Js1
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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25,865

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Patrick Bateman said:

I think it very in play, but that doesn't mean it will be easy to flip.  A few things about North Carolina.  First, the state has a bit over 10 million residents but two hubs have about 50% of the population, Charlotte metro (which covers a sliver of SC) which is about 2.5 million and Research Triangle or the Raleigh-Durham corridor which is home to about 2.2 million.  Stick Fayetteville in there and you're up to about 2.8 million.  Both of these areas have are thriving metro areas but are also educational hubs and therefore attract many educated out of staters in comparison to the rest of the state.  Second, North Carolina is disgustingly gerrymandered so despite voter turnout being +5 for Demos this round, state seats didn't change or there were no flips.  This will change as they've been sued to hell but it wasn't ready for this round of voting. 

That said, NC went to Obama in 2008 by half a point.  Flipped to Romney by only 2 points and went to Donald by 3.5 points.  However, since 2016 there has been a change in the feeling by Carolinians with respect to unhappiness with Trump.  In 2016, his approval rating in NC was 53% with a disapproval rating of only 35%.  To give context, his disapproval rating was 34% in Texas and 31% in Arkansas.  Forward to 2018, his approval rating was 49% -- not terrible considering how bad he's been.  But his disapproval rating rose to 47% this year.  So considering it's been a highly competitive state the past 3 presidential elections, Trump is becoming increasingly unpopular, it's population is slowly becoming more educated and urban, and Donald has 2 more years to fuck things up, I'd say it's highly in play.  Last Senate race in 2016 was +6 for the incumbent Burr, while his opponent was considered fairly meh.  Tillis barely won in 2014 by 1.5% over Hagan when Obama's approval ratings were near it's worst.  I think it's actually ripe to be flipped in a statewide election.... in a Presidential election and for Tillis' seat.  Gotta be the right candidates though.

As to NC gerrymandering, IIRC, the campus of N.C. A&T, a historically black college, is split down the middle into two congressional districts.  Dorm X is in one district, dorm Y in another.  Gotta dilute the young bleks. 

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Doc Sam Beckett

Doc Sam Beckett 5,781

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

How so?

 

I thought CA-10 and CA-48 were too.

 

Walters, who represents Irvine, Mission Viejo and Rancho Santa Margarita in the 45th Congressional District, is now ahead of Porter, 51% to 49%. But that edge is all but certain to narrow further, if not disappear. There are an estimated 70,000 to 90,000 more ballots to count in Walters’ contest as well as Rohrabacher’s.

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hobbes2702

hobbes2702 12,771

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Jim Tom Pinch said:

It really is amazing how ballots “found” after Election Day always favor Democrats who are trailing. Really an amazing coincidence. 

It really is amazing how stupid people always favor making ignorant statements with no factual basis. Really an amazing coincidence 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Patrick Bateman said:

In Arizona..... Pubs mad McSally hasn't been more aggressive in trying to suppress votes.  "What the hell, McNasty!  I want to see some Nasty!  We gotta keep from counting valid votes!"

 

Seriously......

 

what can mcstinky realistically do? These votes are legitimate. The state of Arizona takes forever to count and tabulate because they have to verify that people aren’t double voting. 

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30,064

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, 'stache said:

Well technically, he claimed that his friend will lose because of VOTER FRAUD!!!!!  The nice guy stuff was just on top of his claim that he could only lose because of VOTER FRAUD!!! It sort of implies that because he's a nice guy he could only lose by VOTER FRAUD!!! Or maybe its proof because his nice guy friend could only lose because of VOTER FRAUD!!!! It's rampant, librul VOTER FRAUD!!!  So much proof of VOTER FRAUD!!!

Maybe his friend is like him - I mean, with the dumbs and whatnot.   That might be why he lost.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,391

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Seriously......

 

what can mcstinky realistically do? These votes are legitimate. The state of Arizona takes forever to count and tabulate because they have to verify that people aren’t double voting. 

The gop wants the storyline that the Dems stole Arizona. If she fails to say that, they don’t have a strong message. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The gop wants the storyline that the Dems stole Arizona. If she fails to say that, they don’t have a strong message. 

What a bunch of dickheads.

 

Between voter suppression, kicking voters off the rolls, trying to pressure people into not counting votes. 

 

I don’t see why any intelligent person would support that crooked ass party.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Stringer said:

All snark aside, good on McSally for letting this play out.  I don't have much love for her, but respect her in this situation.  She is being an adult, unlike Scott (and the rest of the R's) in FL.

Her policies are TERRIBLE. Every other sentence, she says “ I’m a fighter pilot” and she voted with trump almost every single fucking time, she enthusiastically voted to take healthcare away from over 20 million people but........ I respect her for letting democracy play out so far. I wouldn’t freak out if she lost, then Doug douchey appointed her to McCain’s old seat. We could make another run at her in 2020.

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30,064

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Ghost of Shag said:

So many experts on this thread.

One of my good friends, Matt Caldwell (R), ran for Ag Commissioner here in Florida.  He won the race by about 50,000 votes.  Guy traveled 100,000 miles, speaking to people in every county multiple times.  Works his ass off and is a stand up guy. 

But then, suddenly, more votes were found and his lead was down to 41,000.  And then suddenly, more votes were found and it was down to 20,000.  

And now, suddenly, more votes have been found.  And he's now losing the race by 501 votes.  Where did most of those votes come from?  Broward County.

You guys can mock the GOP all you want.  Say what you want about DeSantis and Scott, as though any of you know them, or have any association with them, outside of what you read.  Go ahead and pretend that voter fraud is a one-sided affair.  

But I'd hate to see a good man lose an election in a shady manner like this.

https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/08/14/after-the-nra-intervenes-matt-caldwell-sticks-to-guns-on-ad-against-opponent/

Good man?  Here, he looks kinda piece of shit dishonest-y.  

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