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2018 Winter Weather Thread

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Orange&White
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phdhorn
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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)

After this system blows through, we'll get one more day of warm temps.  Then another system following it (much weaker) will actually sweep cold air behind it - this is the "cold snap" mentioned above.  However this is gonna be 3-4 days of cloudy, drizzly, miserable cold weather... which means temps won't vary much at all between night and day.. so no freeze overnight, nor freezing precip while this system affects us up through New Year's Eve day.  They'll get into the 40's by the weekend and stay there through New Year's, more or less, both day and night.  Doesn't look like the freezing stuff will affect any of the major Texas cities, although Fort Worth and just west could be (DAL escapes with just above freezing). 

After that, however New Year's Eve will be pretty chilly, light freezes (with no precip, weather will be clear) overnight possible New Year's Eve through the 3rd or so.  Cold and clear to start 2019.

Get ready for kinda crappy cold, rainy winter weather - but nothing that'll keep anyone home from work.

Edited by phdhorn
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89675

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:
8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:
 Chances of snow Wednesday and Thursday in Austin?  What is this wizardry?

Where you seeing that?

Hmmm...they dropped their slight chance of snow forecasts (Weather, Dark Skies, etc.).

I'm almost bummed out.  I was narrowing it down to which neighbor I would slice open and climb inside of their belly to stay warm.   

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Hmmm...they dropped their slight chance of snow forecasts (Weather, Dark Skies, etc.).

I'm almost bummed out.  I was narrowing it down to which neighbor I would slice open and climb inside of their belly to stay warm.   

Just downgrade it to cutting open their dog and doing the same.  

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Highlights:
- NWS:  likely that firework smoke enhanced fog development this morning, way to go, assholes.
- Today:  cool getting cooler, front from the north
- Tomorrow:  system from the west, spotty rain early, bigger more o'rain Wed. night into Thurs.
- Shit ain't gonna freeze 'round here (models trending warmer); most likely hill country 60-70 miles W/NW of ATX
- But warm ground won't do much widdit... 
- Friday:  back up to 60's agin

This ain't no winter weather freeze thing.  If it changes and colder air pushes in, I'll be back.  Very doubtful, tho.

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RPM

RPM 26322

Posted
Posted

Gonna be shitty in North Texas the next 2 days and I have outdoor work this week. At least it won't be windy.

Wednesday - A chance of freezing rain before noon, then rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected.
Wednesday Night - Rain or freezing rain likely before 3am, then freezing rain likely between 3am and 5am, then rain likely after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected.
Thursday - Rain and snow. High near 36. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Thursday Night - A chance of rain and snow, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12464

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, RPM said:

Gonna be shitty in North Texas the next 2 days and I have outdoor work this week. At least it won't be windy.

Wednesday - A chance of freezing rain before noon, then rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected.
Wednesday Night - Rain or freezing rain likely before 3am, then freezing rain likely between 3am and 5am, then rain likely after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected.
Thursday - Rain and snow. High near 36. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Thursday Night - A chance of rain and snow, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

We have a high of 36 for Thursday in north Iowa.  45 on Saturday.  Last year during the first week of January we had -25 lows.  That's a 70 degree difference.

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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

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Glad I don't live in Montana:

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=byz&wwa=high wind warning 

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 35 to 50 mph with gusts up to 80 mph. Isolated
  gusts to 100 mph possible along areas immediately east of the
  Rocky Mountain Front.

 

The good news is that their low is an unseasonal 40, so the wind chill on a 100mph gust is only a drop to 22 degrees.

https://www.weather.gov/epz/wxcalc_windchill

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Hate

Hate 20108

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From Jeff Lindner HCFD:


Main item of interest will be the strong cold front that will move across the region on Saturday. Upper air pattern over the US will undergo amplification with a ridge of high pressure building along the US west coast into Alaska and this will dislodge cold air over NW Canada and send it southward into the central US late this week. A fast moving arctic frontal boundary will surge southward down the front range of the Rockies Thursday and Friday and blast across TX early Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany this front. Post frontal air mass will be cold with a good push of polar air to arrive across the state on Saturday. Strong cold air advection will drive temperatures into the 40’s and 30’s Saturday afternoon along with NW winds of 15-25mph. Winds will remain up on Saturday night, but continued strong cold air advection will drive the freezing line likely to I-10. This will likely be an advective type freeze which tend to be fairly damaging to vegetation around this area. Arctic high settles into the region on Sunday and even with clear skies temperatures only warm into the 30’s and 40’s for highs. Sunday night potentially could be the coldest of the event with widespread freeze all the way to the coast and likely hard freeze (mid 20’s or lower) for many inland locations. Plenty of time to fine tune the temperatures…but be prepared…as the cold is coming.

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bolverk

bolverk 29683

Posted
Posted

Polar vortex is baaaaack!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/15/polar-vortex-has-fractured-eastern-us-faces-punishing-stretch-winter-weather-just-underway/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.a2d55d238478

The polar vortex has fractured, and the eastern U.S. faces a punishing stretch of winter weather

The swirling winds tens of thousands of feet high in the sky above the Arctic — the dreaded polar vortex — broke apart into three parts to ring in 2019. Now the eastern half of the United States is about to feel the consequences.

Weather models project the onset of a severe and punishing winter weather pattern in just over 10 days, with extreme cold and heightened storminess. In fact, the transition to this harsh winter pattern has likely already begun.

 

Spoiler

 

Before and during the vortex disruption, locations east of the Rockies basked in unusually mild weather for weeks. Washington witnessed 28 days of warmer-than-normal weather, and the first half of January ranked among the top 10 warmest on record in Minneapolis and Milwaukee:

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter
 

The first two weeks of January were among the top 10 warmest such periods on record in the Twin Cities (7th warmest) and Milwaukee (10th warmest). That extended thaw ends later this week. (First map: PRISM, Oregon St.) https://wxch.nl/2RODoFE 

 
 
 
 

But the polar vortex split, which forecasters predicted in December, has likely triggered a transition toward a much more wintry pattern.

Even though the vortex split around the start of the New Year, it often takes weeks for the effects to become apparent in day-to-day weather. The vortex zips around the North Pole high in the stratosphere about twice as high up as commercial aircraft fly, so its downward propagation through the atmosphere is a drawn out process.

 
Embedded video
 

Here is my "official" 3D animation of this year's stratospheric #PolarVortex split. Another beautiful event!

 
 
 
 

This past weekend’s storm which dumped 10 inches of snow in both St. Louis and Washingtonmay have been one of the first indicators of the shift to harsher winter conditions.

“I think the snowstorm this weekend was related to the vortex split,” said Judah Cohen, a researcher at Atmospheric and Environmental Research in Boston, and polar vortex expert. “I think we’re seeing the impacts already.”

After the vortex fractures, it can fundamentally alter the flow in the atmosphere. Steering winds which blow from west to east — transporting mild air from the Pacific Ocean over the continental U.S. — shift to more north and south. Arctic air can more readily be drawn into the North America and Europe.

“The first order impact [of a vortex split] is that you slow the west to east flow and add more of a north-south component,” said Cohen. “There’s a much greater exchange of arctic air that’s moving south.”

A blast of a bitter Arctic air is forecast to plunge into the eastern U.S. late this week and this weekend, the coldest of the winter so far in some areas — another possible sign of the vortex disruption.

By Sunday, temperatures are forecast to be about 10 to 25 degrees colder than normal in the central U.S. and parts of the East. Temperatures may plunge below zero in Kansas City on Sunday, where the AFC championship game between the Chiefs and the New England Patriots will be played.

TX25C23SBVENFGTSMAUPUQBYJI.png
Temperature difference from normal forecast on Sunday from American (GFS) model.

But this cold snap may still just be an appetizer.

Computer models suggest the onset of persistent and acute cold may hold off until between Jan. 25 and 30. In the meantime, temperatures may fluctuate wildly as this new, harsh regime becomes established.

“This is more of a transition period,” said Michael Ventrice, a meteorological scientist at the Weather Co., which is owned by IBM. “We’re kicking out the old regime when the Pacific jet was bringing a lot of warmth to the U.S.”

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter
 

Just stating the obvious: as strong as this cold shot looks early next week w/ lows maybe reaching the 10s in central NC, what's coming at the tail end of January into early February will be a lot more impressive. This is about the coldest planetary-scale pattern you can ask for.

 
 
 
 

The signal for an extended period of cold and potentially stormy weather is very strong continuing well into February, say long-range forecasters. “I think you can be very confident,” Ventrice said.

Ventrice said the European modeling system has been predicting this cold pattern for six straight weeks without exception, which is rare. “There’s something big driving this signal and it’s tied to the stratospheric warming [or vortex split]."

The American modeling system is in agreement with the European in forecasting the initiation of a very cold pattern in about two weeks.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter
 

When the GEFS and the ECMWF 14-day forecast are identical... Wow. This is a going to be a wild, Wintry ride for the eastern U.S. and Europe during the end of January. (Apologizes for the repost, had some typos).

 
 
 
 

Once this wintry pattern becomes entrenched, it may be difficult to dislodge.

“These impacts can last four to six, and maybe eight, weeks,” said Cohen, who expects the worst winter conditions to peak in February. After last year’s polar vortex disruption in February, abnormally cold and stormy weather dominated the eastern U.S. in March and well into April.

While forecasters cannot predict exactly how cold it will get this year, where and when big storms will form and who will get the most snow, Cohen said to expect “intense periods of winter weather becoming more frequent including more frequent episodes of arctic outbreaks."

Because of the developing El Nino event, which adds moisture to storms traveling across the South, the snow potential will also be enhanced during this period. “We’re seeing all of these southern stream storms, which will act as seedlings for nor’easters,” Ventrice said.

Ventrice said he expects the cold to penetrate into the Deep South and that, by the end of February, winter will have worn out its welcome.

“I think it’s going to be a completely 180 in the psyche for people living in the eastern U.S.,” Ventrice said. “In Boston, we want the snow now because we haven’t had it. By the time this is over, we’re going to be ready to be done.”

 

 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Polar vortex is baaaaack!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/15/polar-vortex-has-fractured-eastern-us-faces-punishing-stretch-winter-weather-just-underway/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.a2d55d238478

The polar vortex has fractured, and the eastern U.S. faces a punishing stretch of winter weather

The swirling winds tens of thousands of feet high in the sky above the Arctic — the dreaded polar vortex — broke apart into three parts to ring in 2019. Now the eastern half of the United States is about to feel the consequences.

Weather models project the onset of a severe and punishing winter weather pattern in just over 10 days, with extreme cold and heightened storminess. In fact, the transition to this harsh winter pattern has likely already begun.

 

  Hide contents

 

Before and during the vortex disruption, locations east of the Rockies basked in unusually mild weather for weeks. Washington witnessed 28 days of warmer-than-normal weather, and the first half of January ranked among the top 10 warmest on record in Minneapolis and Milwaukee:

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter
 

The first two weeks of January were among the top 10 warmest such periods on record in the Twin Cities (7th warmest) and Milwaukee (10th warmest). That extended thaw ends later this week. (First map: PRISM, Oregon St.) https://wxch.nl/2RODoFE 

 
 
 
 

But the polar vortex split, which forecasters predicted in December, has likely triggered a transition toward a much more wintry pattern.

Even though the vortex split around the start of the New Year, it often takes weeks for the effects to become apparent in day-to-day weather. The vortex zips around the North Pole high in the stratosphere about twice as high up as commercial aircraft fly, so its downward propagation through the atmosphere is a drawn out process.

 
Embedded video
 

Here is my "official" 3D animation of this year's stratospheric #PolarVortex split. Another beautiful event!

 
 
 
 

This past weekend’s storm which dumped 10 inches of snow in both St. Louis and Washingtonmay have been one of the first indicators of the shift to harsher winter conditions.

“I think the snowstorm this weekend was related to the vortex split,” said Judah Cohen, a researcher at Atmospheric and Environmental Research in Boston, and polar vortex expert. “I think we’re seeing the impacts already.”

After the vortex fractures, it can fundamentally alter the flow in the atmosphere. Steering winds which blow from west to east — transporting mild air from the Pacific Ocean over the continental U.S. — shift to more north and south. Arctic air can more readily be drawn into the North America and Europe.

“The first order impact [of a vortex split] is that you slow the west to east flow and add more of a north-south component,” said Cohen. “There’s a much greater exchange of arctic air that’s moving south.”

A blast of a bitter Arctic air is forecast to plunge into the eastern U.S. late this week and this weekend, the coldest of the winter so far in some areas — another possible sign of the vortex disruption.

By Sunday, temperatures are forecast to be about 10 to 25 degrees colder than normal in the central U.S. and parts of the East. Temperatures may plunge below zero in Kansas City on Sunday, where the AFC championship game between the Chiefs and the New England Patriots will be played.

TX25C23SBVENFGTSMAUPUQBYJI.png
Temperature difference from normal forecast on Sunday from American (GFS) model.

But this cold snap may still just be an appetizer.

Computer models suggest the onset of persistent and acute cold may hold off until between Jan. 25 and 30. In the meantime, temperatures may fluctuate wildly as this new, harsh regime becomes established.

“This is more of a transition period,” said Michael Ventrice, a meteorological scientist at the Weather Co., which is owned by IBM. “We’re kicking out the old regime when the Pacific jet was bringing a lot of warmth to the U.S.”

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter
 

Just stating the obvious: as strong as this cold shot looks early next week w/ lows maybe reaching the 10s in central NC, what's coming at the tail end of January into early February will be a lot more impressive. This is about the coldest planetary-scale pattern you can ask for.

 
 
 
 

The signal for an extended period of cold and potentially stormy weather is very strong continuing well into February, say long-range forecasters. “I think you can be very confident,” Ventrice said.

Ventrice said the European modeling system has been predicting this cold pattern for six straight weeks without exception, which is rare. “There’s something big driving this signal and it’s tied to the stratospheric warming [or vortex split]."

The American modeling system is in agreement with the European in forecasting the initiation of a very cold pattern in about two weeks.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter
 

When the GEFS and the ECMWF 14-day forecast are identical... Wow. This is a going to be a wild, Wintry ride for the eastern U.S. and Europe during the end of January. (Apologizes for the repost, had some typos).

 
 
 
 

Once this wintry pattern becomes entrenched, it may be difficult to dislodge.

“These impacts can last four to six, and maybe eight, weeks,” said Cohen, who expects the worst winter conditions to peak in February. After last year’s polar vortex disruption in February, abnormally cold and stormy weather dominated the eastern U.S. in March and well into April.

While forecasters cannot predict exactly how cold it will get this year, where and when big storms will form and who will get the most snow, Cohen said to expect “intense periods of winter weather becoming more frequent including more frequent episodes of arctic outbreaks."

Because of the developing El Nino event, which adds moisture to storms traveling across the South, the snow potential will also be enhanced during this period. “We’re seeing all of these southern stream storms, which will act as seedlings for nor’easters,” Ventrice said.

Ventrice said he expects the cold to penetrate into the Deep South and that, by the end of February, winter will have worn out its welcome.

“I think it’s going to be a completely 180 in the psyche for people living in the eastern U.S.,” Ventrice said. “In Boston, we want the snow now because we haven’t had it. By the time this is over, we’re going to be ready to be done.”

 

 

Run natty run

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

KXAN update this a.m. has Sat-Mon moderating to only light freezes overnight (28°-30°).  Other stations not yet updated.  Borderline wrap your pipes thing at this point.  But I don't think it's going to be a total winter blast, though about equal to the coldest 2-3 day stretches we've had this season so far.  But not markedly colder.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89675

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

KXAN update this a.m. has Sat-Mon moderating to only light freezes overnight (28°-30°).  Other stations not yet updated.  Borderline wrap your pipes thing at this point.  But I don't think it's going to be a total winter blast, though about equal to the coldest 2-3 day stretches we've had this season so far.  But not markedly colder.

Weather apps all seem to be moving it back up above freezing as well. 

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12464

Posted
Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

I think -3 might be our high Saturday

 

 

Fucking hell

 

 

Bummer.  That was our first half of January '18 (hit -30 around New Year's Day that year).

Of course, I don't know why I'm whining to you.  You were probably looking at -40 last year.

Edited by Al_4_ISU
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