The Beto Effect - How To Lose Elections and Influence Nothing

[SquishMitten 10415]

Abbott would be +8 in normal times.  You can give Beto a point because of Dobbs, maybe another because of Uvalde, maybe 2 more because he’s campaigning so hard/effectively.  Then take away 2 from Beto because of inflation and the stock market.  Abbott is going to win by somewhere between 4 and 7 points.  It’s hopeless for Beto.  It always was.

Beto has control over inflation and the stock market? Or is this a “that’s because of Biden, so all Dems are bad” line of thinking? And only one point for Dobbs?

[Js1 85422]

6 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

 

Beto has control over inflation and the stock market? Or is this a “that’s because of Biden, so all Dems are bad” line of thinking? And only one point for Dobbs?

 

It's Texas....so that.

[tx 3 putt 77085]

 

[StassneyHorn 6616]

Inflation in Texas is an Abbott problem. Just like his unemployment rate in the bottom quartile.

[atomheartbevo 89732]

8 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Abbott would be +8 in normal times.  You can give Beto a point because of Dobbs, maybe another because of Uvalde, maybe 2 more because he’s campaigning so hard/effectively.  Then take away 2 from Beto because of inflation and the stock market.  Abbott is going to win by somewhere between 4 and 7 points.  It’s hopeless for Beto.  It always was.

I would agree, but Abbott is an even worse candidate than Cruz (Cruz has done some fuckery, but Abbott owns the power grid, all of his bullshit spending in Texas, his dumbass comments bout Uvalde, etc.)., Trump is also not on the ballot, and a shitload of women are pissed about abortion.

What we need is the Republicans to openly talk more about restricting birth control. They got smart and clammed up about that.  Oh, and talk more about how they intend on tracking Texas women who leave the state in order to pursue some kind of criminal charges against the ones who get abortions or help another woman to get an abortion.

 

[atomheartbevo 89732]

8 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Abbott would be +8 in normal times.  You can give Beto a point because of Dobbs, maybe another because of Uvalde, maybe 2 more because he’s campaigning so hard/effectively.  Then take away 2 from Beto because of inflation and the stock market.  Abbott is going to win by somewhere between 4 and 7 points.  It’s hopeless for Beto.  It always was.

I would agree, but Abbott is an even worse candidate than Cruz (Cruz has done some fuckery, but Abbott owns the power grid, all of his bullshit spending in Texas, his dumbass comments bout Uvalde, etc.)., Trump is also not on the ballot, and a shitload of women are pissed about abortion.

What we need is the Republicans to openly talk more about restricting birth control. They got smart and clammed up about that.  Oh, and talk more about how they intend on tracking Texas women who leave the state in order to pursue some kind of criminal charges against the ones who get abortions or help another woman to get an abortion.

 

[atomheartbevo 89732]

dp

Edited October 7, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[The Original Greaser Bob 2841]

Well, it's actually kind of a triple post.

[Pato del Muerto 52528]

Well I hand-delivered my registration application so that there’s no usps issues.  Don’t think it will matter in the final calculus, but don’t feel comfortable with a position of not voting any more. 

[TexPx 2323]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/richard-linklaters-next-project-taking-down-greg-abbott/ar-AA12IPUS

[Js1 85422]

Don’t give me hope

 

[WBT 20618]

On 10/6/2022 at 8:12 PM, atomheartbevo said:

I would agree, but Abbott is an even worse candidate than Cruz

No.  Cruz is much more unliked...because he's so unlikeable.

 

[tx 3 putt 77085]

[atomheartbevo 89732]

24 minutes ago, WBT said:

No.  Cruz is much more unliked...because he's so unlikeable.

Cruz has his hit bottom - his support will not go any lower, and he gets to mostly stay out of state-level decisions.

Abbott though, he’s already shown he can fuck up on his own, and he looks really pathetic chasing after DeSantis in terms of who can be a shittier governor.

[StassneyHorn 6616]

If it’s up to rural areas, it’d be a real shame if they found out about his plans for school choice and vouchers.

It’d be a real shame to hit him on Medicaid expansion and the closed hospitals in rural areas.

[Js1 85422]

14 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

If it’s up to rural areas, it’d be a real shame if they found out about his plans for school choice and vouchers.

It’d be a real shame to hit him on Medicaid expansion and the closed hospitals in rural areas.

Also to note that Politico analyzed all of the special elections to date since Dobbs - suburban turnout up, rural turnout down. So….

[YChang 3455]

I’m really hoping it’s a case of Tx Dems plus independents and the burbs come out strong for Beto and a large swath of Republicans just choose to not vote at all. 

Edited October 10, 2022 by YChang

[Satchel 6938]

"Texas added about 300,000 new voters from June 24, the day of the high court's ruling, to late August. Democrats now have a 10-percentage point advantage among new registrants."

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Also to note that Politico analyzed all of the special elections to date since Dobbs - suburban turnout up, rural turnout down. So….

Hoping the rural / trump idiots take it easy this year.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

On 10/6/2022 at 3:41 PM, SquishMitten said:

 

Beto has control over inflation and the stock market? Or is this a “that’s because of Biden, so all Dems are bad” line of thinking? And only one point for Dobbs?

 

It’s because brain dead people have that line of thinking.  And millions of brain dead people vote.  

[tx 3 putt 77085]

1 hour ago, Satchel said:

"Texas added about 300,000 new voters from June 24, the day of the high court's ruling, to late August. Democrats now have a 10-percentage point advantage among new registrants."

those are the cities and burbs 

[mchookem 16336]

uh huh

[Beau Vine 54255]

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

11 hours ago, Satchel said:

"Texas added about 300,000 new voters from June 24, the day of the high court's ruling, to late August. Democrats now have a 10-percentage point advantage among new registrants."

I'm always skeptical whether these numbers truly indicate new voters or just someone that moved from Houston to Austin, or whatever cities. Also a 10pt advantage means a a net 30K new voters for him. He lost to Cruz by 215K.

I do agree that Beto's main (only?) chance of winning is if an unexpected group of voters emerge this year.

Anecdotal item that I've shared here before but my elderly mom hated Cruz but couldn't get herself to vote for Bee-to in '18. Blank on her ballot. Now she talks all the time that I help her vote Abbott out. Maybe there are some silent others like her.

[The Royal We 3072]

1 hour ago, Beau Vine said:

 

I was sitting down in front of the person filming when Natalie did this.  Beto was in the audience and the kerfuffle around him was what sparked this.

I was a little surprised at how many mouth breathers were there booing Beto and her when she said this.  Like, do you even know who the Chicks are?  If you're too much of a snowflake to handle a Beto appearance then you may want to choose a different show to attend.  There was a trumpaloo sitting right behind us that was booing and aggressively flipping Beto off when everyone figured out what all the commotion was about.  You could tell he was triggered by Beto just being there and he kept grumbling through the whole show.  What a fucking loser - letting his mere presence ruin his night.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

18 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

I was sitting down in front of the person filming when Natalie did this.  Beto was in the audience and the kerfuffle around him was what sparked this.

I was a little surprised at how many mouth breathers were there booing Beto and her when she said this.  Like, do you even know who the Chicks are?  If you're too much of a snowflake to handle a Beto appearance then you may want to choose a different show to attend.  There was a trumpaloo sitting right behind us that was booing and aggressively flipping Beto off when everyone figured out what all the commotion was about.  You could tell he was triggered by Beto just being there and he kept grumbling through the whole show.  What a fucking loser - letting his mere presence ruin his night.  

The guy behind you is the type that rants that he doesn't want to hear about politics from musicians or celebrities. But if his other favorite C&M stars want to salute Trump, they're standing up hooting and hollering their approval. 

[aggie08 21505]

Ruin his night??? Dude got to flip off Beto in person around a bunch of libs. He's at home right now jerking off to the memory of owning the libs.

[The Royal We 3072]

10 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The guy behind you is the type that rants that he doesn't want to hear about politics from musicians or celebrities. But if his other favorite C&M stars want to salute Trump, they're standing up hooting and hollering their approval. 

Absolutely.  Parts of the grumbling I picked up were in that vein - "I just want to hear the music!"  "Why does she have to politicize this?"  Had he been at a Nugent show and Nuge started talmbout Let's Go Brandon and Trump Really Won then this asshat would have been masturbating furiously.

Whatever.  The Chicks are one of my wife's favorite bands and this was my birthday present to her.  The trumpaloo behind me riled me up for a few seconds before I realized that's what he wanted and then I tuned him out.  It was a kick ass show that included The Pride of Lubbock Texas - Lloyd Maines on the steel guitar.

[royiv 9326]

37 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

I was sitting down in front of the person filming when Natalie did this.  Beto was in the audience and the kerfuffle around him was what sparked this.

I was a little surprised at how many mouth breathers were there booing Beto and her when she said this.  Like, do you even know who the Chicks are?  If you're too much of a snowflake to handle a Beto appearance then you may want to choose a different show to attend.  There was a trumpaloo sitting right behind us that was booing and aggressively flipping Beto off when everyone figured out what all the commotion was about.  You could tell he was triggered by Beto just being there and he kept grumbling through the whole show.  What a fucking loser - letting his mere presence ruin his night.  

You were at a show in Montgomery County and were surprised that there were Trumpkins in attendance?

[The Royal We 3072]

3 minutes ago, royiv said:

You were at a show in Montgomery County and were surprised that there were Trumpkins in attendance?

Fair point.  I guess I shouldn't be surprised with the location, but that these same people were running over Chick's CDs with tractors when they had the gall to question the merits of Shrub's buildup to the invasion of Iraq.  They are really going to go take in a show ~20 years later and be surprised/pissed they are liberal?

[Beau Vine 54255]

8 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

Fair point.  I guess I shouldn't be surprised with the location, but that these same people were running over Chick's CDs with tractors when they had the gall to question the merits of Shrub's buildup to the invasion of Iraq.  They are really going to go take in a show ~20 years later and be surprised/pissed they are liberal?

They're stupid, you know.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

I know almost everyone on this thread wants Beto to win but I just don't see it in the numbers.

Some polls show that Republicans and Independents sign off on Abbott's platform that the border is the biggest problem facing Texas. That's effectively game over right there. Abbott is running on a platform that is outside his jurisdiction and the right doesn't care.

I believe Beto has a good chance to outperform his '18 percentages but Texas demographics haven't changed enough for a Dem to win a statewide race.

Hope I'm wrong.

[Js1 85422]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I know almost everyone on this thread wants Beto to win but I just don't see it in the numbers.

Some polls show that Republicans and Independents sign off on Abbott's platform that the border is the biggest problem facing Texas. That's effectively game over right there. Abbott is running on a platform that is outside his jurisdiction and the right doesn't care.

I believe Beto has a good chance to outperform his '18 percentages but Texas demographics haven't changed enough for a Dem to win a statewide race.

Hope I'm wrong.

Here's the rub -

No one's polling seems to have any idea WHO is showing up or going to show up.  The enthusiasm is all over the place (sometimes GOP leads, sometimes Dems lead) and like 2016/2020, are the polls even capturing these new registrants/infrequent voters who are pissed at Dobbs.

Every special election since Dobbs has undervalued Dems. So really, no one seems to know shit. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Here's the rub -

No one's polling seems to have any idea WHO is showing up or going to show up.  The enthusiasm is all over the place (sometimes GOP leads, sometimes Dems lead) and like 2016/2020, are the polls even capturing these new registrants/infrequent voters who are pissed at Dobbs.

Every special election since Dobbs has undervalued Dems. So really, no one seems to know shit. 

I hear ya and i want to talk myself that this year will defy recent history and trends. It's just hard to see it.

Abbott has been a complete failure for texas but his approval #s are 50 or higher. Rural Texans only care about the R after someone's name.

[Pato del Muerto 52528]

9 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I hear ya and i want to talk myself that this year will defy recent history and trends. It's just hard to see it.

Abbott has been a complete failure for texas but his approval #s are 50 or higher. Rural Texans only care about the R after someone's name.

Don’t worry about who will win. Just do what you feel like you should, and whatever happens, happens. 
 

one other thing we don’t really know is how many, it’s going to be the R winning so why bother voting type people there are on either side, but as the margin dwindles it becomes more important to get those people to vote. It doesn’t matter until it does, and you want your side on the leading edge of that. 

Edited October 10, 2022 by Pato del Muerto

[pyrohornIII 4815]

This cycle has been different than any other in recent years.  We have a strong slate and some personable, qualified people running.   They are all over the state campaigning and organized fairly well.  Beto doesn't show up without another candidate with him and there is a lot of push to present them as a team, not just Beto and some other people. 

They each have their own campaigns but they often join up on the road for one or two day  multi-candidate tours.   That includes the judges too.  

It's a diverse group.   They aren't all older white guys.  There are white, hispanic, male, female, older and younger.    And each is out stumping to their strength and reminding everyone it's not just Beto, the whole ticket needs to be elected.  Right now Beto is doing his college swing and my son went to the one at Sam and he said the ballroom was packed.  Only a handful of weak Abbott supporters.     I think Patrick isn't even on that bus half the time, it's just an expensive rolling billboard.

One of the big issues in rural is schools, and teachers are noticing.  I have a couple of devout R lady teachers who are voting Collier, because of his message.   Every county Beto drops into he has the exact figure that reflects how underpaid the teachers are in X County, versus the country.  Add to that the lack of COLAs for retired teachers.  Those people talk a lot.  

We have phone banking and texting programs using relational databases which is fairly new, and it's effective.  We also have better data from more points of contact driving some of those programs to approach and interact with better defined bases of those who lean blue but don't always vote, particularly in mid terms.

And lastly, we have all these groups like Mothers against Greg Abbott, BabiesforBeto, and It could have been Worse.  Those groups are the ones doing the messier work of casting aspersions, which leaves the candidates hands fairly clean.  Though they aren't ever afraid to speak the truth and point out weaknesses in the current administrations while they are campaigning. 

So things are different this time, and polling might be missing some of this.  I do hope like someone said earlier, the GQP feels confident and sits it out.

Anyway.  All this gives me hope that we win at least a couple of offices.

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

11 minutes ago, pyrohornIII said:

This cycle has been different than any other in recent years.  We have a strong slate and some personable, qualified people running.   They are all over the state campaigning and organized fairly well.  Beto doesn't show up without another candidate with him and there is a lot of push to present them as a team, not just Beto and some other people. 

They each have their own campaigns but they often join up on the road for one or two day  multi-candidate tours.   That includes the judges too.  

It's a diverse group.   They aren't all older white guys.  There are white, hispanic, male, female, older and younger.    And each is out stumping to their strength and reminding everyone it's not just Beto, the whole ticket needs to be elected.  Right now Beto is doing his college swing and my son went to the one at Sam and he said the ballroom was packed.  Only a handful of weak Abbott supporters.     I think Patrick isn't even on that bus half the time, it's just an expensive rolling billboard.

One of the big issues in rural is schools, and teachers are noticing.  I have a couple of devout R lady teachers who are voting Collier, because of his message.   Every county Beto drops into he has the exact figure that reflects how underpaid the teachers are in X County, versus the country.  Add to that the lack of COLAs for retired teachers.  Those people talk a lot.  

We have phone banking and texting programs using relational databases which is fairly new, and it's effective.  We also have better data from more points of contact driving some of those programs to approach and interact with better defined bases of those who lean blue but don't always vote, particularly in mid terms.

And lastly, we have all these groups like Mothers against Greg Abbott, BabiesforBeto, and It could have been Worse.  Those groups are the ones doing the messier work of casting aspersions, which leaves the candidates hands fairly clean.  Though they aren't ever afraid to speak the truth and point out weaknesses in the current administrations while they are campaigning. 

So things are different this time, and polling might be missing some of this.  I do hope like someone said earlier, the GQP feels confident and sits it out.

Anyway.  All this gives me hope that we win at least a couple of offices.

 

All great points. 

I rarely watch local channels so I have no idea about the types of ads that Beto broadcasts but I think the following would be effective:

Are you a teacher, retired teacher or know one? Abbott has fought to keep your income below the national average.  Show a few retired teachers lamenting how long it's been since their monthly check has increased. For many, it's never occurred. 2004 is the answer, btw.  And how laughable it is when Abbott talks about how teachers in Texas can earn 100K.

Remember your favorite teacher from high school? She's likely struggling to get by now. Thanks greg.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33874]

On 10/5/2022 at 5:25 PM, VivaNaranja said:

Check if you are registered here:

https://teamrv-mvp.sos.texas.gov/MVP/mvp.do

Register here:

https://vrapp.sos.state.tx.us/index.asp

tomorrow is the last day, y'all. even if you haven't done anything to change your status, check it. it takes literally a few minutes

[YGIFS 19452]

and if you go anywhere to register to vote in person, take another unregistered person with you.  Even if you have to give them a handy at red lights like last mid-terms.  

[Biff Tannen 45691]

Anti-Beto billboards all up and down 35 from here to Dallas.  Just straight lies and boogeymen.  One just says SOCIALISM!!!! VOTE NO TO BETO.  My personal favorite was one that didn't even make sense in any way:  REMEMBER THE ALAMO!  VOTE NO TO BETO!

Wat?

[YGIFS 19452]

Yeah, I get the ones with buzzwords like "Open borders", "Socialism", and "Mandatory CRT in schools" but what the fuck with the Alamo?  

So if you vote No to Beto, the Alamo will be remembered?  If you vote Yes to Beto, the Alamo will be forgotten? 

-or-

If you remember the Alamo, you should also, in addition to that remembering, vote no to Beto?  

Or is it just like a random non-sequitir generated by Texas GOP Mad Libs?   "Governor Abbott reminds you to (insert historical Texas catchphrase) and (verb) No to (insert evil local Democrat)."  

[elfenix 34318]

18 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

If it’s up to rural areas, it’d be a real shame if they found out about his plans for school choice and vouchers.

It’d be a real shame to hit him on Medicaid expansion and the closed hospitals in rural areas.

there's about 20 billboards between houston and austin either thanking abbott for vouchers or blaming him for defunding schools. 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33874]

3 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Anti-Beto billboards all up and down 35 from here to Dallas.  Just straight lies and boogeymen.  One just says SOCIALISM!!!! VOTE NO TO BETO.  My personal favorite was one that didn't even make sense in any way:  REMEMBER THE ALAMO!  VOTE NO TO BETO!

Wat?

musta missed those. then again, I didn't pay much attention to billboards

[Js1 85422]

39 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

musta missed those. then again, I didn't pay much attention to billboards

[C-Man 27230]

3 hours ago, YGIFS said:

Yeah, I get the ones with buzzwords like "Open borders", "Socialism", and "Mandatory CRT in schools" but what the fuck with the Alamo?  

So if you vote No to Beto, the Alamo will be remembered?  If you vote Yes to Beto, the Alamo will be forgotten? 

-or-

If you remember the Alamo, you should also, in addition to that remembering, vote no to Beto?  

Or is it just like a random non-sequitir generated by Texas GOP Mad Libs?   "Governor Abbott reminds you to (insert historical Texas catchphrase) and (verb) No to (insert evil local Democrat)."  

Probably because there are some Texas who think his name is Beto and he's from El Paso so he must be Mexican and for that reason, you can't vote for him, white people. It might be that simple.

[YGIFS 19452]

Yeah that makes as much sense as anything..  In 2018, Abbott criticized him for being too anglo and posing as a Hispanic with that nickname and broken Spanish.  Now it's "Look out Texas, he might be Mexican.  Remember what they did to us at the Alamo!?!?"

[Voldemort86 2259]

I had to renew my DL and registered in my new county at the same time. Anything I can do to make sure I can vote?

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

48 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I had to renew my DL and registered in my new county at the same time. Anything I can do to make sure I can vote?

https://teamrv-mvp.sos.texas.gov/MVP/mvp.do

Check since the deadline is oct 11

 

[MeerkatBong 115]

In my very conservative neighborhood, in 2018 there were many Cruz signs in yards. Same neighborhood in 2022 (I know, governor not senate so it's different, I guess), there are zero signs save one BETO sign in the yard of one of the houses on the entrance. Nothing else. I don't quite know what to make of that.

[DigglerontheHoof 21202]

8 hours ago, MeerkatBong said:

In my very conservative neighborhood, in 2018 there were many Cruz signs in yards. Same neighborhood in 2022 (I know, governor not senate so it's different, I guess), there are zero signs save one BETO sign in the yard of one of the houses on the entrance. Nothing else. I don't quite know what to make of that.

Yeah, in my hood there are a dozen or so signs for local city/county races but almost no state-wide signs.  I have a Beto sign up and I recall seeing on Abbott sign but that's it.