The Beto Effect - How To Lose Elections and Influence Nothing

[Skipper 6,161]

2 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I'd be interested to know what the hell Beto is doing with all that cash he raised.

This exactly.  I get some idiots constantly texting me about Beto (annoying) but have heard or seen easily 50X ads for Abbot compared to Beto.  Shocking to catchup on this thread and see Beto bragging about outraising Abbot.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

Texas Democratic Party has gotta be the best at underperforming. They do so little with so many opportunities to attack and expose the state GOP.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Texas Democratic Party has gotta be the best at underperforming. They do so little with so many opportunities to attack and expose the state GOP.

You registered to vote yet?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

Are there really minds to change at this time?

My guess is that Beto is holding off some ads waiting for the early voting start next week.  Identify who you need to make it to the election booth, and convince them to go. The miniscule chance to change an Abbott vote to Beto isn't worth the money and effort now.

But Abbott is also well funded. 

[StassneyHorn 6,624]

Beto has more name recognition than our current Governor, that is why you are seeing more ads from him.

[Beantown Express 2.0 6,559]

I agree with the posts above stating the Dems suck at messaging.  The only Beto ad I have seen in the DFW area is the surgeon one.  While good it doesn’t really move the needle.  They should have produced ads about gun massacres like Uvalde/Walmart El Paso telling soccer moms their children aren’t safe in this state due to Abbott and his cronies leadership, abortion ads about little kids getting raped and being forced to have the child, and literally show people freezing to death during the grid failures and putting that directly on Abbott and the other Pubs who run this state.  Maybe the Dems are too nice or something and don’t want to go low so they can instead feel good about not attacking Abbott and losing a race that could have been winnable.  

[Pescado_Rojo 19,427]

I haven't looked, but I'd bet Beto spends more money on digital. I can't tell you the last time I watched something on regular TV that wasn't a sporting event...and if I did I probably recorded it and zipped through the commercials when I watched it. Beto knows his best chance is Millennials and Gen Z, and they watch even less regular TV. He needs to reach them on digital platforms (I think he's doing a good job there) and he needs to make sure they show up and vote, so hopefully he's building a war chest for GOTV.  

[mchookem 16,342]

i mean there's so much source material... just do a montage of scandals and fuck ups: the grid, massive utility bills, property taxes, Uvalde and El Paso shootings, mental health funding, DPS, TJJD, DFPS, abortion ban, highlight everything... end with a shot of Abbott saying '...it could have been worse.'

but nobody asked me, so... 😜

[A-Tex Devil 2,451]

7 minutes ago, mchookem said:

i mean there's so much source material... just do a montage of scandals and fuck ups: the grid, massive utility bills, property taxes, Uvalde and El Paso shootings, mental health funding, DPS, TJJD, DFPS, abortion ban, highlight everything... end with a shot of Abbott saying '...it could have been worse.'

but nobody asked me, so... 😜

This doesn’t matter because it doesn’t change minds and doesn’t get people off of couches.  Dems should be campaigning nationwide on Moore v Harper and create a Schoolhouse Rock version of what it means and its risk to how we all thought government worked - A side verse on Hungary would be nice.   That could get butts off couches if messaged right to inform our uninformed electorate.  

Edited October 18, 2022 by A-Tex Devil

[TexPx 2,323]

Are there really minds to change at this time?
My guess is that Beto is holding off some ads waiting for the early voting start next week.  Identify who you need to make it to the election booth, and convince them to go. The miniscule chance to change an Abbott vote to Beto isn't worth the money and effort now.
But Abbott is also well funded. 

Yeah, Abbott is well funded.
https://www.texastribune.org/2022/10/18/greg-abbott-texas-fundraising-governor-donors/

[Skipper 6,161]

1 hour ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I agree with the posts above stating the Dems suck at messaging.  The only Beto ad I have seen in the DFW area is the surgeon one.  

Is it too much to ask of Beto's campaign to run a few adds on The Ticket making fun of the pure idiocracy bombardment we constantly get from Abbot's campaign.  Something like "Despite what you may have heard, I actually don't support handing out Rainbow Fentanly to kids at Halloween, however (insert majority supported moderate position or something about the grid or other low hanging fruit). Not sure how much that would move the needle but it certainly would distinguish him to educated listeners that are annoyed by the constant onslaught of alarmism/misinformation Abbot uses to incite the uneducated (and aggys)

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,881]

 

[royiv 9,332]

4 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I haven't looked, but I'd bet Beto spends more money on digital. I can't tell you the last time I watched something on regular TV that wasn't a sporting event...and if I did I probably recorded it and zipped through the commercials when I watched it. Beto knows his best chance is Millennials and Gen Z, and they watch even less regular TV. He needs to reach them on digital platforms (I think he's doing a good job there) and he needs to make sure they show up and vote, so hopefully he's building a war chest for GOTV.  

I definitely think this is true. I get a lot of Beto ads on YouTube.

[Gil Bang 25,984]

 

[Biff Tannen 45,695]

God dammit, if true Texans can't get behind Willie for a governor pick, they just aren't true Texans.

[atomheartbevo 89,757]

9 hours ago, Skipper said:

This exactly.  I get some idiots constantly texting me about Beto (annoying) but have heard or seen easily 50X ads for Abbot compared to Beto.  Shocking to catchup on this thread and see Beto bragging about outraising Abbot.

9 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Are there really minds to change at this time?

My guess is that Beto is holding off some ads waiting for the early voting start next week.  Identify who you need to make it to the election booth, and convince them to go. The miniscule chance to change an Abbott vote to Beto isn't worth the money and effort now.

But Abbott is also well funded. 

Half my TV watching is YouTube, and there are plenty of Beto ads.

And holy fuck do I get texted multiple times a day asking if I want to volunteer for Beto, that there's a block walking party or whatever, or phone banking, etc.

[Beantown Express 2.0 6,559]

2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

God dammit, if true Texans can't get behind Willie for a governor pick, they just aren't true Texans.

I prefer my true Texans to be from Canada like Ted Cruz, thank you very much.

[RPM 26,327]

6 hours ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I prefer my true Texans to be from Canada like Ted Cruz, thank you very much.

Or Maryland like Dannie Goeb.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

9 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Half my TV watching is YouTube, and there are plenty of Beto ads.

And holy fuck do I get texted multiple times a day asking if I want to volunteer for Beto, that there's a block walking party or whatever, or phone banking, etc.

Just reply with stop on those texts. 

[Skipper 6,161]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Just reply with stop on those texts. 

I think we've discussed this before the last election but does anyone think texting actually helps?  All it does is annoy the shit out of people. I think it's a terrible strategy.

[YChang 3,455]

1 minute ago, Skipper said:

I think we've discussed this before the last election but does anyone think texting actually helps?  All it does is annoy the shit out of people. I think it's a terrible strategy.

You only need a % of people to convert whether that's donations, volunteer, etc... I mean I guess it's the modern day's equivalent of mailers. 

[Skipper 6,161]

3 minutes ago, YChang said:

You only need a % of people to convert whether that's donations, volunteer, etc... I mean I guess it's the modern day's equivalent of mailers. 

Except mailers don't disturb your day and waste your time like texts do.  We all get enough spam calls/text.  Nobody needs that shit from politicians.

[South Austin 52,523]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Just reply with stop on those texts. 

Or send them a dick pic.

[YChang 3,455]

2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Except mailers don't disturb your day and waste your time like texts do.  We all get enough spam calls/text.  Nobody needs that shit from politicians.

Oh I get your point of view. I'm one of those people where it doesn't bother me that much. Especially in regards to wasting time or disturbing me. My phone silences all that stuff.

Edited October 19, 2022 by YChang

[atomheartbevo 89,757]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Just reply with stop on those texts. 

That’s really good to know because sending dick pics only gets me more dick pics.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

14 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I think we've discussed this before the last election but does anyone think texting actually helps?  All it does is annoy the shit out of people. I think it's a terrible strategy.

the Pod save America team discussed this in a recent episode. They believe that the constant texts, when you never agreed to them, annoys people and makes the candidates and party look bad.

They provided some background for the constant requests for money from candidates from other states. Basically your # is on a list that was sold, and an outside firm is hired to request donations with little input from the candidate. The outside firm may be using tactics that go against the candidate's targeting strategy. But it's still the candidate's responsibility.  (I think the Beto texts are not quite this scenario.)

[The Original Greaser Bob 2,844]

13 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

God dammit, if true Texans can't get behind Willie for a governor pick, they just aren't true Texans.

Response A:  We have Ted Cruz as one of our senators and you live in a make-believe land where "true Texans" have any power?

Response B:  True Texans are assholes.

[The Original Greaser Bob 2,844]

Ads don't matter at this point.

The only thing that matters is how many of your voters you can get to the polls. 

It's all face to face/convince people to vote on the way home from work/drive people to the polls stuff. 

[Biff Tannen 45,695]

4 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

Ads don't matter at this point.

The only thing that matters is how many of your voters you can get to the polls. 

It's all face to face/convince people to vote on the way home from work/drive people to the polls stuff. 

Yep.  Myself and a coworker are trying to get our entire department to vote.  We sent out voter registration stuff multiple times on our work slack and are going to hammer them with early voting info soon.

[atomheartbevo 89,757]

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas-politics/almost-500000-texans-registered-to-vote-since-the-march-primaries/

Almost half a million Texans have been added to the state’s voter rolls since the March primaries, according to numbers released Friday by the Texas Secretary of State’s office.

Between March and Oct. 11, a total of 488,147 Texans registered to vote, an increase of 2.8%.

As of Oct. 11 — the deadline to register to vote in the Nov. 8 midterm elections — 17,672,143 Texans were registered statewide.

[tx 3 putt 77,230]

He's getting my vote on Monday

[Satchel 6,938]

Was standing outside the Sanctuary yesterday when I noticed a man and woman in a pickup drive past me and take a spot in visitor parking. It was Beto and his wife. Didn’t have an entourage  of any kind. Just slipped into the church almost unnoticed.

[Bama Chick 28,596]

Pretty cool.

[tx 3 putt 77,230]

beto needs a big push this weekend 

[Bama Chick 28,596]

If you’re in Houston, you might get a funny visitor at your door!

[troph 24,892]

He had a straight forward good message on CFB during the tOSU v Penn St game. Grid, historic property tax rise, protect our kids Abbott has failed us I will fix it let’s turn the page and move Texas forward message. His version of an attack ad, funny he started with “I’m sure Gov Abbott doesn’t wake up wanting the grid to fail and kids to die…” then said “but after 8 years he’s failed us.” Then he goes into it all… pretty good, straight forward camera shot of Beto talking nothing else.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,127]

Hmmm...

 

 

[Biff Tannen 45,695]

8 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Hmmm...

 

 

Why would this make any sense?  Abbott will give Rs everything they want.

[South Austin 52,523]

13 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Hmmm...

 

If true, too little too late, in my opinion. 

[DigglerontheHoof 21,207]

sounds like wish-casting, but who knows

[WBT 20,642]

seems legit

[Pato del Muerto 52,535]

Just got word that everyone should give all their money to me. PM for routing details. TIA. 

[aggie08 21,508]

Republican disinformation is dangerous AF. Democrat disinformation is needy and desperate AF.

[fattyflattie 4,639]

4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Just got word that everyone should give all their money to me. PM for routing details. TIA. 

Pm sent. 

[atomheartbevo 89,757]

11 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Hmmm...

2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Why would this make any sense?  Abbott will give Rs everything they want.

Probably an outlier, however I have a friend who works at a data analytics/polling company, and he's told me some hypotheticals that he's heard tossed around from some Republicans after the abortion stuff blew up.  He doesn't reveal information on stuff they actively work on, and it didn't sound like his company had war-gamed this stuff out for anybody, because as he put it "if somebody commissioned us to put together an analysis along these lines, and it was leaked out and tied back to us, we'd be finished."

Anyways, the hypothetical(s) he was pitching to a couple of us a few weeks ago, basically centered around a few key Republicans at the state level losing, along with some key legislators. The idea is that with the way things are going now, with the current crop of politicians, when it truly flips, it's completely gone.  

The scenario would be an "engineered" pruning of some of the more divisive Republicans, with the aim of bringing in Republicans who can dial it back a notch, read the overall room better, up to and including using female and/or Hispanic Republicans.  Basically, they don't want candidates who win only because they have an (R) next to their name, but instead win because of charisma/personality and/or are building up the (R) base as a whole, rather than chasing after a small portion of it. It's not possible right now, simply because they don't have those potential Republican replacements waiting in the wings, and 2024 would theoretically be a problem for getting a Republican back in one of those offices in 2026 or beyond..

Note: This is not about defeating incumbents in the primaries - that boat sailed already for this cycle, and it's tough and expensive to defeat an incumbent. This is about getting Dems in office, and then using their performance in office, as well as national issues to get Rs back in those seats in 2026 and beyond. Mike Collier  getting Republican support fits the scenario he mentioned, but he denied it was about Collier/Patrick, and more about other Republicans like Abbott, Paxton, the Freedom Caucus, etc. The people he had talked to believe those people don't bring anything to the table for Republicans in the future.

/lobo

it was an interesting little brain exercise on which Republicans are hurting the GOP the most, and who you would run to get Rs back in those seats  after the next election.

[LCHorn 2,624]

I always chuckle when the somewhat sober Republican base admits some anxiety about their collusion with the now dominant parts of the GOP.  “We can get back control of this thing if we elect a Blue Dog in a few races!!!”

Its got to feel real lonely at the country club lately.

[Guest]

So my 6 year old was watching when the "Beto hitting the cinderblock Texas wall" ad came on. He just randomly says "He's destroying Texas."

Yeah, that ad is fucking working.

[Js1 85,449]

9 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

So my 6 year old was watching when the "Beto hitting the cinderblock Texas wall" ad came on. He just randomly says "He's destroying Texas."

Yeah, that ad is fucking working.

Time to trade in the kid. 

[royiv 9,332]

12 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

So my 6 year old was watching when the "Beto hitting the cinderblock Texas wall" ad came on. He just randomly says "He's destroying Texas."

Yeah, that ad is fucking working.

It doesn't work on rational, critical thinking adults. Unfortunately, the base has the intelect of your 6 year old.

[Poe It Up 126]

15 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

So my 6 year old was watching when the "Beto hitting the cinderblock Texas wall" ad came on. He just randomly says "He's destroying Texas."

Yeah, that ad is fucking working.

Kids repeat what they hear at home…