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The Beto Effect - How To Lose Elections and Influence Nothing

tantric superman

By tantric superman
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Pancho
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Makes me proud to be a Texas Democrat. 

PenelopeWitherspoon
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TexPx

TexPx 2309

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Big crowd in Frisco today. In true Collin County Dem organization fashion they booked a local event facility with a capacity of 600.

By mid week over 3500 had registered. The had to scramble and get a big tent for behind the facility and livestream to the indoor facility.

Thought I would see a gaggle of the DFW Deplorables but they were only a few sad looking Abbott peeps out front with signs. Asked one how much it payed cause I might want to make a buck. She looked at me and shaded her eyes from the 100d Sun and said “not enough”

There was one dorky looking chub in full tactical gear strapped with an assault rifle. Dumbass was standing on the sidewalk in full sunlight sweating his ass off. I pointed and laughed and laughed.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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3 hours ago, TexPx said:



There was one dorky looking chub in full tactical gear strapped with an assault rifle. Dumbass was standing on the sidewalk in full sunlight sweating his ass off. I pointed and laughed and laughed.

I honestly wouldn’t feel bad at all if the guy suffered a heat stroke. 

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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 33831

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1 hour ago, Bama Chick said:

I didn’t see any pearl clutching when that shirt heel mayor of Uvalde called Beto a “son of a bitch”.

Curious, that.

Like with movies, you only get one 'fuck' before you got from PG to R. They skirt the PG-13 line in an attempt to seen pious to cover for their over bigotry. It's dumb. Don't play into it. 

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F250

F250 28674

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Like with movies, you only get one 'fuck' before you got from PG to R. They skirt the PG-13 line in an attempt to seen pious to cover for their over bigotry. It's dumb. Don't play into it. 

This seems to be the jist of the article. Candidates that do it too much run the risk of drowning out their message.

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troph

troph 24560

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14 hours ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

I don't know how I missed this, but in reference to Beto's interaction of this last week:

 

I didn’t mention it but thought it might garner some nonsense responses like this. I’ve got young teens. I told them they can use the F word in connection with politics that make no sense or anger them long before this outburst. Laughing about kids getting killed is more offensive than saying fucking when your mad about it. What’s wrong with people? 

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troph

troph 24560

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12 hours ago, F250 said:

This seems to be the jist of the article. Candidates that do it too much run the risk of drowning out their message.

And that’s the risk. I wouldn’t have done it but I’m not going to criticize him for it what’s done is done. He’s more right than the laughing asshole.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13406

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On 8/12/2022 at 2:40 PM, Satchel said:

Should Beto win, his improbable victory could be attributed to people being tired of Republican rule after 30 years. They’re curious about what life in Texas would be like with Democrats in charge.

My mom has pretty much been a republican since the Reagan years. I still think she leans to the right but she's sick of how the GOP has failed Texas. The GOP refuses to give retired teachers, like her, a raise in their benefits. Retired teachers last saw a retirement pay increase in 2004. In that time the purchasing power of that pay has dropped 41%.

Imagine retiring at about full pay and you're approaching the ability to only buy half of what you used to be able to buy. The GOP doesn't care about the promises we have made to our retirees. Any way my mom asks me to ensure that she's registered so she can vote for Beto. (She purposefully didn't vote for neither Beto nor Cruz in 2018 because she disliked both of them.)

And as @troph points out above, our state and local govt is earning ever-increasing  revenue without increasing the tax rates. WTF is this money going? The GOP have been poor stewards of Texas in that time.  To be clear, electing Beto is not going to turn Texas around. He wouldn't be able to change a GOP-led state legislature. But we need to show our politicians that it's time to change.

 

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Satchel

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Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton neck-and-neck with Democratic challenger in new poll
The embattled incumbent leads Rochelle Garza by two percentage points, the tightest margin of any statewide contest. 

AUSTIN Attorney General Ken Paxton and his Democratic challenger, Rochelle Garza, are neck and neck in a new poll, a sign the embattled incumbent is vulnerable in November.

Paxton leads Garza 34%-32% among registered voters the tightest margin of any statewide contest, according to Dallas Morning News-University of Texas at Tyler poll released Sunday.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2022/08/14/texas-attorney-general-ken-paxton-neck-and-neck-with-democratic-challenger-in-new-poll/

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FORTY NINE TO ZERO

FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2630

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1 hour ago, Satchel said:

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton neck-and-neck with Democratic challenger in new poll
The embattled incumbent leads Rochelle Garza by two percentage points, the tightest margin of any statewide contest. 

AUSTIN Attorney General Ken Paxton and his Democratic challenger, Rochelle Garza, are neck and neck in a new poll, a sign the embattled incumbent is vulnerable in November.

Paxton leads Garza 34%-32% among registered voters the tightest margin of any statewide contest, according to Dallas Morning News-University of Texas at Tyler poll released Sunday.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2022/08/14/texas-attorney-general-ken-paxton-neck-and-neck-with-democratic-challenger-in-new-poll/

Obviously I want them all out, but I want Paxton out the most.  The open corruption and abuse is just insane 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13406

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Per that Paxton news, that would be crazy if the Dems would take over a few statewide offices. Of course, I would assume that the lame duck GOP power structure would quickly attempt to pass new laws diminishing the power of those offices.  They would never willingly leave their offices without hurting the next officeholders.

im not getting my hopes up about any Dem statewide candidate until I see it.

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25894

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7 hours ago, troph said:

I didn’t mention it but thought it might garner some nonsense responses like this. I’ve got young teens. I told them they can use the F word in connection with politics that make no sense or anger them long before this outburst. Laughing about kids getting killed is more offensive than saying fucking when your mad about it. What’s wrong with people? 

Somebody said that using the word "fuck" is profane, laughing at Uvalde shooting is obscene. 

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Goredho

Goredho 17341

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2 hours ago, Satchel said:

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton neck-and-neck with Democratic challenger in new poll
The embattled incumbent leads Rochelle Garza by two percentage points, the tightest margin of any statewide contest. 

AUSTIN Attorney General Ken Paxton and his Democratic challenger, Rochelle Garza, are neck and neck in a new poll, a sign the embattled incumbent is vulnerable in November.

Paxton leads Garza 34%-32% among registered voters the tightest margin of any statewide contest, according to Dallas Morning News-University of Texas at Tyler poll released Sunday.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2022/08/14/texas-attorney-general-ken-paxton-neck-and-neck-with-democratic-challenger-in-new-poll/

Fucking Texas.  She is going to leave you with purple balls again.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89396

Posted
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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Per that Paxton news, that would be crazy if the Dems would take over a few statewide offices. Of course, I would assume that the lame duck GOP power structure would quickly attempt to pass new laws diminishing the power of those offices.  They would never willingly leave their offices without hurting the next officeholders.

im not getting my hopes up about any Dem statewide candidate until I see it.

Legislature won’t be in session, and any serious fuckery by Abbott, Paxton, and Danica is just going to rev up the Dems and Indies even more.

And it would be a huge sign of weakness on Abbott’s part.

Of course, if statewide offices go to Dems, Abbott won’t get shit in the ‘24 elections, nor would a Republican leading the ticket be interested in him at all.

So expect Abbott to freak the fuck out if the down ballot races go badly for R’s.

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6535

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If you can't account for 1/3 of your respondents, than one probably shouldn't publish the result. That's like having 10 page paper due, making it to page 7, increasing the size of the punctuation marks to get to 8.5 and recognizing you probably did enough to pass. 

Garza riding Beto's turnout spike, the probable overperformance in the Valley due to the surname, and bipartisan anger at Paxton for legal troubles gives me hope for a pickup.

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Satchel

Satchel 6908

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GOP Sec’y of State to Republican candidates; “don’t worry, I got this.”

Texas is secretly purging voter rolls again

https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2022/08/14/texas-is-purging-voters-again-and-getting-it-wrong-again/

Early this month, a federal judge ordered the Texas secretary of state to release a list of more than 11,000 voters identified as noncitizens, including 1,354 Dallas County residents.

The fact that it took a court to get the state to release this information is worrisome enough given the state’s shaky history of scrubbing voter rolls

The problem here is the lack of transparency. We understand the need to ensure that the state’s voter roll is up to date and to have mechanisms that prevent fraud.

But after the secretary of state’s botched purge in 2019 ended with a settlement, the need for transparency is that much higher. Releasing information from voter purges was part of this agreement.

Back then, Texas authorities cross-checked voter rolls with driver’s license data from the Department of Public Safety. Close to 100,000 voters were flagged as potential noncitizens. But that conclusion did not take into account that naturalized citizens can take years to renew their driver’s license after their naturalization. So citizens who were voting legally were unfairly treated with suspicion.

The plaintiffs who pushed for the list of names argue there is enough anecdotal evidence to believe that Secretary of State John Scott is using the same strategy to purge voter rolls.

Texas authorities did send 30-day notices to people whose names were in the process of being removed from the voter rolls, but a majority of those voters never responded.

That’s not good enough. Relying on people to proactively respond to having their rights removed is as unreliable as it is inadequate.

According to public statements from the secretary of state, more than 2,000 voters among the 11,000 or so who were flagged as possible noncitizens had their registration canceled. But some who received the warning letters actually were citizens, the Associated Press reported.

That means hundreds or thousands of legal voters could go to the polls only to discover they were disenfranchised. That is unacceptable.

All of this suggests the secretary of state is using a bazooka to kill a fly in an effort to curb voter fraud, which is simply not widespread in Texas, no matter what fictions and falsehoods people hear and believe.

But don’t take our word for it. Look at the efforts of our attorney general, Ken Paxton, who has embraced the narrative that elections are being stolen.

According to the Texas Attorney General website, 155 individuals have been prosecuted for fraud offenses since 2005. The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, also tracks voter fraud and they list only four criminal convictions in 2022, all of them for fraudulent use of absentee ballots.

Meanwhile, Texas authorities are not allowing lawyers to review how they are purging voter rolls. The records were originally sought over a year ago.

The state has until Monday to release the information, but is now seeking a stay to get more time. This lack of transparency only sows more doubts.

If the secretary of state has nothing to hide, they should release this list immediately

 

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atomheartbevo

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Posted
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1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

Beto would be toast if Abbott were to court the center, but he's trying to govern like Don Huffines for some reason.

35 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Abbott has dreams of the WH and he sees DeSantis as the governor to emulate.

Yep, he’s not running against Beto, he’s running against DeSantis.

And Huffines had millions spent on him by a couple of West Texas billionaires, which scares the shit out of Abbott (and was the reason why Abbott was running to the far right).  It’s why Abbott will gleefully go after women who leave the state to get an abortion.

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gmr548

gmr548 16481

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So someone that’s a polling nerd talk me onto the ledge; I think Beto has maxed out at 44% (per the U of H poll) because of high name ID.  Maybe he picks up a percentage point or two of the undecided but more than likely splits those with Abbott, which doesn’t close a 5% or 6% gap.  
 
What’s the play if you’re advising the Beto campaign?  You need to peel away some likely GOP voters and the current polls presumably reflect the suburban Mom “I’m quiet pro choice Republican” already.  You and your opponent likely don’t have much ground to gain with large media spends (because of the high name ID), so how do you a) foster turnout and b) crack Abbott’s block of supporters?  Or, will it take Biden getting into the 40% or higher approval range to generate enough enthusiasm that mid-term turnout works for the Dems?
One last question; if you think Beto needs to go negative, how do you do it to hit Republican voters and not have it bleed onto the undecided?

Lots of people voted Beto for Senate, Abbott for Gov in 2018, and that's before Abbott had taken a hard right turn and was more of a Rick Perry protege.
My guess is that "bloc" goes overwhelmingly for Beto if current trends keep (Dems getting Ws) 

And yet, 52% of the state still voted for Ted Cruz and a second Trump term.

I don’t honestly think there’s anything Beto can do to win in the sense that he does not control his own destiny. The GOP has a hard floor of about 52%. If he does, it will be because Abbott did something to lose. And at this point I can’t fathom what he could do to lose given he’s still polling at a 50% + - aka a layup for an incumbent.
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Grade of D as in David

Grade of D as in David 13253

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6 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

If you can't account for 1/3 of your respondents, than one probably shouldn't publish the result. That's like having 10 page paper due, making it to page 7, increasing the size of the punctuation marks to get to 8.5 and recognizing you probably did enough to pass. 

Garza riding Beto's turnout spike, the probable overperformance in the Valley due to the surname, and bipartisan anger at Paxton for legal troubles gives me hope for a pickup.

That brings back some memories 

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troph

troph 24560

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Posted
13 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

i'd expect npr to tweet in lower case italics, so it sounds more like a whisper

Terry Gross may be the best interviewer / journalist out there right now. Her command of the interview is astounding and her whisper monotone voice is iconic.

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The Dog

The Dog 43785

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4 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

It’s ridiculous and embarrassing that we keep electing a loser like Ken Paxton. Does your average everyday Texan have no morals? Are people really that clueless?

Three groups vote for him imho:

1. People who think the charges are bogus;

2. People who don't know about them and are just voting for the Red team (there are more in this group than most of us realize);

3. People who know and don't care because they don't like the Blue team. 

Regardless him polling at 34% shows that there's an opportunity here. Many are sick of his antics and probably more know about his legal issues than before. 

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chainsaw

chainsaw 9836

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12 hours ago, gmr548 said:

 


And yet, 52% of the state still voted for Ted Cruz and a second Trump term.

I don’t honestly think there’s anything Beto can do to win in the sense that he does not control his own destiny. The GOP has a hard floor of about 52%. If he does, it will be because Abbott did something to lose. And at this point I can’t fathom what he could do to lose given he’s still polling at a 50% + - aka a layup for an incumbent.

 

This is before a sizable number of those people were wiped out by a pandemic and/or died of old age.  

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