The Beto Effect - How To Lose Elections and Influence Nothing

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Also, the Green Party needs to realize that a vote for Green is a vote for Abbott.

[Guest]

So there's no doubt this is still Abbott's race to lose. But I'm thinking that the Beto tour to all these small towns is pretty smart strategy. 

On a whim, I looked through the Texas results for president. Trump won overall 52/46. But what stood out to me is how DEEP red so many of those small rural counties. While Biden might win a big county 55/45 or 60/40, Trump won these smaller counties by insane margins -- 85/15. 

Meanwhile, Abbott isn't going to these places. If Beto can turn some counties from 85/15 to 80/20 by visiting and showing his face, it can add up.

[gmr548 16576]

This is before a sizable number of those people were wiped out by a pandemic and/or died of old age.  

About 90k Texans have died from COVID. It’s a sizable number in most contexts, but not electorally.

Even if every single one of those was a Cruz vote, that’s still 125k more votes for Cruz in 2018. That doesn’t even take into account that COVID death rates are disproportionately higher in minority populations, or strong in migration by Republicans drawn by Texas’s COVID policy (or lack thereof).

COVID will be an electoral wash at best and might even help the GOP.

[chainsaw 9867]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

 

About 90k Texans have died from COVID. It’s a sizable number in most contexts, but not electorally.

Even if every single one of those was a Cruz vote, that’s still 125k more votes for Cruz in 2018. That doesn’t even take into account that COVID death rates are disproportionately higher in minority populations, or strong in migration by Republicans drawn by Texas’s COVID policy (or lack thereof).

COVID will be an electoral wash at best and might even help the GOP.

 

There's also olds who died after 2018, and people who moved into the state since then.

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

32 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

So there's no doubt this is still Abbott's race to lose. But I'm thinking that the Beto tour to all these small towns is pretty smart strategy. 

On a whim, I looked through the Texas results for president. Trump won overall 52/46. But what stood out to me is how DEEP red so many of those small rural counties. While Biden might win a big county 55/45 or 60/40, Trump won these smaller counties by insane margins -- 85/15. 

Meanwhile, Abbott isn't going to these places. If Beto can turn some counties from 85/15 to 80/20 by visiting and showing his face, it can add up.

The problem isn't so much percentages, but net votes. Some of those counties are so small you could flip the 85%/15% and it would still only net you a couple hundred votes. If he can't pick up at least 2,000 votes with a 5 point swing (really should be 5,000), he's wasting his time visiting them more than once. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

The problem isn't so much percentages, but net votes. Some of those counties are so small you could flip the 85%/15% and it would still only net you a couple hundred votes. If he can't pick up at least 2,000 votes with a 5 point swing (really should be 5,000), he's wasting his time visiting them more than once. 

Yeah, of course. But dropping in, showing some love -- even if it's the next county over -- seems like a good idea to maybe generate some goodwill in these spots.

I just can't believe the margins that these counties in rural Texas go red. That's where I wonder if someone like Fetterman (but a Texan version of him) might be able to make some ground up.

[chainsaw 9867]

39 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

So there's no doubt this is still Abbott's race to lose. But I'm thinking that the Beto tour to all these small towns is pretty smart strategy. 

On a whim, I looked through the Texas results for president. Trump won overall 52/46. But what stood out to me is how DEEP red so many of those small rural counties. While Biden might win a big county 55/45 or 60/40, Trump won these smaller counties by insane margins -- 85/15. 

Meanwhile, Abbott isn't going to these places. If Beto can turn some counties from 85/15 to 80/20 by visiting and showing his face, it can add up.

It definitely adds up. It's a lot easier to hate Joe Biden because you've never looked in his eyes and shaken his hand and he's never cared enough to visit your town.

[Biff Tannen 45678]

37 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I just can't believe the margins that these counties in rural Texas go red.

Why?  Have you ever visited these places?  They are...not normal.

[Guest]

Just now, Biff Tannen said:

Why?  Have you ever visited these places?  They are...not normal.

Live and grew up in them. In fact, my county that I graduated from was deep red in the last election, which surprised me as it was a pretty diverse county overall.

[Js1 85320]

You love to see it.

Texas Republicans worry Beto could win the suburbs - Axios Dallas

Collin County GOP is flipping out.  Trump won 51% in Collin County.  Beto lost is by 6 in 2018. 

[chainsaw 9867]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You love to see it.

Texas Republicans worry Beto could win the suburbs - Axios Dallas

Collin County GOP is flipping out.  Trump won 51% in Collin County.  Beto lost is by 6 in 2018. 

This trend, even more than covid deaths, is why Beto has a chance.

[A-Tex Devil 2446]

Beto needs to campaign some with Garza I think given how close Garza is to Paxton in polls and the fact they can harp on the fact that Paxton is under criminal investigation.  Collier seems fine, but not sure how much he moves needle.  You want people pulling the straight ballot lever this year, as much as it can fuck up local races, particularly judges.   I'll take that hit this year to set a precedent at the statewide level.

Is SoS not up for election this year?  That troubles me as I imagine fuckery will be afoot if it's close.  

[Js1 85320]

2 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

Beto needs to campaign some with Garza I think given how close Garza is to Paxton in polls and the fact they can harp on the fact that Paxton is under criminal investigation.  Collier seems fine, but not sure how much he moves needle.  You want people pulling the straight ballot lever this year, as much as it can fuck up local races, particularly judges.   I'll take that hit this year to set a precedent at the statewide level.

Is SoS not up for election this year?  That troubles me as I imagine fuckery will be afoot if it's close.  

The Texas SoS is not an elected position, they are appointed by the Governor

[atomheartbevo 89659]

57 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Yeah, of course. But dropping in, showing some love -- even if it's the next county over -- seems like a good idea to maybe generate some goodwill in these spots.

I just can't believe the margins that these counties in rural Texas go red. That's where I wonder if someone like Fetterman (but a Texan version of him) might be able to make some ground up.

There are more than enough votes for Beto to win, if he can get people out to vote, who don’t normally vote.  Abbott certainly isn’t going to move the needle with those people.

Maybe all of these trips/visits will help that. Dems really need a strong GOTV machine though, like what Stacey Abrams has done.  

7 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

You want people pulling the straight ballot lever this year, as much as it can fuck up local races, particularly judges. 

Texas ditched straight-ticket voting though, but I get what you’re saying, and somebody who pulls the lever for Beto is liable to vote (D) all the way down.

[Voldemort86 2259]

17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You love to see it.

Texas Republicans worry Beto could win the suburbs - Axios Dallas

Collin County GOP is flipping out.  Trump won 51% in Collin County.  Beto lost is by 6 in 2018. 

Tarrant county ( where I’m from) is crucial for the future of the states politics. It actually went blue in 2020 by the slimmest of margins and I really hope the trend of it turning blue continues.

[DigglerontheHoof 21195]

19 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You love to see it.

Texas Republicans worry Beto could win the suburbs - Axios Dallas

Collin County GOP is flipping out.  Trump won 51% in Collin County.  Beto lost is by 6 in 2018. 

There is a ton of housing that's gone up/is going up in S Collin Co that are in entry-level type neighborhoods.  A lot of immigrants from India/Pakistan, black families and hispanics. 

[A-Tex Devil 2446]

25 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The Texas SoS is not an elected position, they are appointed by the Governor

 

21 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

There are more than enough votes for Beto to win, if he can get people out to vote, who don’t normally vote.  Abbott certainly isn’t going to move the needle with those people.

Maybe all of these trips/visits will help that. Dems really need a strong GOTV machine though, like what Stacey Abrams has done.  

Texas ditched straight-ticket voting though, but I get what you’re saying, and somebody who pulls the lever for Beto is liable to vote (D) all the way down.

Well, I fail Texas civics.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

5 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Not great: https://www.uttyler.edu/politicalscience/files/dmn-uttyler-aug2022.pdf

 

56% Wrong Track:

47/49 approve/disapprove on Abbott:

But, we'll keep going down the same road...

 

 

 

 

 

61% of independents disapprove of Abbott's job but only 34% of them will vote for Beto?

I have acquaintances that will openly say they dislike Abbott (or Cruz or Cornyn, and so on) but "he's better than the alternative."  When pressed for why they think Beto will do a worse job, the only response is always, he's a Democrat. No facts behind their vote.

[chainsaw 9867]

4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

61% of independents disapprove of Abbott's job but only 34% of them will vote for Beto?

I have acquaintances that will openly say they dislike Abbott (or Cruz or Cornyn, and so on) but "he's better than the alternative."  When pressed for why they think Beto will do a worse job, the only response is always, he's a Democrat. No facts behind their vote.

Those are the ones we want to stay home.

[Pig Bellmont 8717]

3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

61% of independents disapprove of Abbott's job but only 34% of them will vote for Beto?

 

This is why I’m convinced Abbott will win. When push comes to shove, people will vote at the polls in a way they are too embarrassed to admit in a poll

[Satchel 6938]

57 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You love to see it.

Texas Republicans worry Beto could win the suburbs - Axios Dallas

Collin County GOP is flipping out.  Trump won 51% in Collin County.  Beto lost is by 6 in 2018. 

Don’t be surprised if suburban women show Republicans better than they can tell them how pissed they are about Dobbs.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

6 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

This is why I’m convinced Abbott will win. When push comes to shove, people will vote at the polls in a way they are too embarrassed to admit in a poll

Yep.  We have a group here in Texas that will identify as independent but when asked, they haven’t voted for a Dem in 30 years or perhaps never. But they’re independent. 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11819]

27 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

 

Well, I fail Texas civics.

CSB the Texas deputy SOS until 2018 was a guy I went to high school with and was also a pastor.  Coby Shorter III.  From Eagle Lake - town of live oaks and trashy folks.  He was a smart dude in high school but it went downhill from there - went to A&M and got appointed by Rick Perry.  Abbott replaced him because he probably doesn't like black guys who went to aggie.

[Voldemort86 2259]

8 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Yep.  We have a group here in Texas that will identify as independent but when asked, they haven’t voted for a Dem in 30 years or perhaps never. But they’re independent. 

I wonder how some of these people function and do things like go to work, pay rent or a mortgage, or walk upright. All they can come up with is “he’s a democrat, can’t vote for him“? Serious?   Republicans have brainwashed the state.
 

low information voters are so annoying.

[mchookem 16330]

[Bama Chick 28596]

Texas ditched straight-ticket voting though, but I get what you’re saying, and somebody who pulls the lever for Beto is liable to vote (D) all the way down.

Yep.

Going to these deep red small towns might flip from 85% red to 78% red BUT what is also going to happen is to motivate moderates and silent democrats who live there to actually go vote.

I would bet there’s a not insignificant number of people who live in those places who never even bother voting because they think their vote doesn’t matter.

Meeting Beto face to face and hearing from his own mouth that their vote does matter and he actually asks for their vote should be a big motivator.

It’s about turning non-voters into Beto voters just as much as turning red voters to blue voters.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

3 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Yep.

Going to these deep red small towns might flip from 85% red to 78% red BUT what is also going to happen is to motivate moderates and silent democrats who live there to actually go vote.

I would bet there’s a not insignificant number of people who live in those places who never even bother voting because they think their vote doesn’t matter.

Meeting Beto face to face and hearing from his own mouth that their vote does matter and he actually asks for their vote should be a big motivator.

It’s about turning non-voters into Beto voters just as much as turning red voters to blue voters.

Your friend Harry has encouraged Americans to vote (esp during the Presidential election); when you're in NY, see if you can ask him to give Beto a shout out!

[Bama Chick 28596]

Ha! Harry is actually doing a residency in Austin in October - 5 shows I think?

MY GOD - if Beto and Harry are on the same stage at the same time, I might actually die.

I may need to check out ticket prices for the Austin shows…..

Anyone got a guest house for your girl?

[bolverk 29671]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

You love to see it.

Texas Republicans worry Beto could win the suburbs - Axios Dallas

Collin County GOP is flipping out.  Trump won 51% in Collin County.  Beto lost is by 6 in 2018. 

Collin is slowly turning the corner.

• In 2016, it voted Trump 55.6% to Hillary's 38.9%.
• In 2018, it voted Cruz 52.6% to Beto's 46.6%. 
• In 2020, it voted Trump 51.3% to Joe's 46.9%. 

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

Tarrant county ( where I’m from) is crucial for the future of the states politics. It actually went blue in 2020 by the slimmest of margins and I really hope the trend of it turning blue continues.

Similarly, Tarrant is in the process of making the shift. They voted for both Beto in 2018 and Joe in 2020 by the slimmest of margins.

1 hour ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

There is a ton of housing that's gone up/is going up in S Collin Co that are in entry-level type neighborhoods.  A lot of immigrants from India/Pakistan, black families and hispanics. 

I think it's great that Beto is doing his tour right now, but afterward he needs to hit the North Texas burbs, the LRGV + Corpus hard to shore up and/or flip those counties. Basically, hit the Big 5 nonstop, plus the Valley (aka where most of Texas lives).

[chainsaw 9867]

3 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Collin is slowly turning the corner.

• In 2016, it voted Trump 55.6% to Hillary's 38.9%.
• In 2018, it voted Cruz 52.6% to Beto's 46.6%. 
• In 2020, it voted Trump 51.3% to Joe's 46.9%. 

Similarly, Tarrant is in the process of making the shift. They voted for both Beto in 2018 and Joe in 2020 by the slimmest of margins.

I think it's great that Beto is doing his tour right now, but afterward he needs to hit the North Texas burbs, the LRGV + Corpus hard to shore up and/or flip those counties. Basically, hit the Big 5 nonstop, plus the Valley (aka where most of Texas lives).

It sucks he can't be in 5 places at once.

[bolverk 29671]

2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

It sucks he can't be in 5 places at once.

I've heard that's one of the things that makes Texas a little bit different than other states. We're not dominated by just one or two major metros, so media buys/travel has to get spread out among multiple markets which I imagine must put challengers in a tougher spot than elsewhere.

[NameAlreadyInUse 5112]

 

24 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Ha! Harry is actually doing a residency in Austin in October - 5 shows I think?

MY GOD - if Beto and Harry are on the same stage at the same time, I might actually die.

I may need to check out ticket prices for the Austin shows…..

Anyone got a guest house for your girl?

My husband and one of our friends is going to that, while her husband and myself are planning to go to a bar instead.  If you come out here, we'd be happy to entertain you after the show.  You'll have some other superfans around even!

13 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I've heard that's one of the things that makes Texas a little bit different than other states. We're not dominated by just one or two major metros, so media buys/travel has to get spread out among multiple markets which I imagine must put challengers in a tougher spot than elsewhere.

Travel isn't that big a deal.  You can be basically anywhere in the state within a couple hours, depending on your starting point.  You just need enough money to hire planes to carry you around.  You could start every morning in the valley then fly up to Houston burbs around lunch, afternoon in Austin/el paso/SA and happy hour dinner meetings in Dallas and burbs, then fly back down to the valley to start the whole thing over again the next day.  It wouldn't be so challenging if you needed to make it happen.

[Satchel 6938]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

There are more than enough votes for Beto to win, if he can get people out to vote, who don’t normally vote.  Abbott certainly isn’t going to move the needle with those people.

Maybe all of these trips/visits will help that. Dems really need a strong GOTV machine though, like what Stacey Abrams has done.  

Texas ditched straight-ticket voting though, but I get what you’re saying, and somebody who pulls the lever for Beto is liable to vote (D) all the way down.

And that’s why Republicans took the straight ticket option from voters. They don’t miss any opportunity to limit voter freedoms.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

 

My husband and one of our friends is going to that, while her husband and myself are planning to go to a bar instead.  If you come out here, we'd be happy to entertain you after the show.  You'll have some other superfans around even!

Travel isn't that big a deal.  You can be basically anywhere in the state within a couple hours, depending on your starting point.  You just need enough money to hire planes to carry you around.  You could start every morning in the valley then fly up to Houston burbs around lunch, afternoon in Austin/el paso/SA and happy hour dinner meetings in Dallas and burbs, then fly back down to the valley to start the whole thing over again the next day.  It wouldn't be so challenging if you needed to make it happen.

Yeah, I mean Abbott was easily able to fly to Huntsville and then back to Austin the day of the Uvalde shooting -- and even got to spend three hours at a fundraiser there. It can be done.

[WBT 20564]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

the only response is always, he's a Democrat. No facts behind their vote.

Well, that's a fact

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

61% of independents disapprove of Abbott's job but only 34% of them will vote for Beto?

I have acquaintances that will openly say they dislike Abbott (or Cruz or Cornyn, and so on) but "he's better than the alternative."  When pressed for why they think Beto will do a worse job, the only response is always, he's a Democrat. No facts behind their vote.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

I see 2 big unknowns in this race:

1) I believe Abbott's closest election in the last 25 years is a 13 point victory. Perhaps he really knows how to run and win, or maybe he only rides the tide of being a republican. If things get tight, Abbott could make mistakes.

• The Texas GOP party may not know how to wisely spend money in Texas. I'm sure they are looking to Cruz '18 as a guide.

2) Beto had to learn something from his loss to Cruz. What worked. What was a waste of time and money. While he's not running a dirty campaign again, he also doesn't appear to be playing the nice guy anymore. I know many of us complained about his refusal to attack Cruz in 2018.

[StassneyHorn 6575]

2 hours ago, chainsaw said:

It sucks he can't be in 5 places at once.

Right? Why can’t he be like Stacey Abrams!! /s

[RDCanecutter 26426]

10 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Right? Why can’t he be like Stacey Abrams!! /s

Stacey Abrams was all up inside Mexican Radio in Georgia past weekend.

I like local Mexican Radio. Nice to have some stations that don't alternate between "Bad to the Bone" and "Like a Cowboy, on a Steel Horse I Ride."

"Cuz I'm Wanted."

 

"Wanted."

 

"Dead or Alive"

 

(dee dee dee dee doodle deedle dum dum dum dee.)

[tx 3 putt 76932]

2 hours ago, Satchel said:

And that’s why Republicans took the straight ticket option from voters. They don’t miss any opportunity to limit voter freedoms.

I still think they screws themselves on this one. The R olds need as much help as possible voting. Having to make a selection on every race is brutal for them 

[tx 3 putt 76932]

2 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

Ha! Harry is actually doing a residency in Austin in October - 5 shows I think?

MY GOD - if Beto and Harry are on the same stage at the same time, I might actually die.

I may need to check out ticket prices for the Austin shows…..

Anyone got a guest house for your girl?

[Bozo_Casanova 26451]

9 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Also, the Green Party needs to realize that a vote for Green is a vote for Abbott.

They are dumb.

anyway,

Fuck. Yes.

Edited August 16, 2022 by Bozo_Casanova

[Js1 85320]

9 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Also, the Green Party needs to realize that a vote for Green is a vote for Abbott.

Getting Republicans Elected Every November

[Biff Tannen 45678]

3 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

God damn, this is the fucking truth.

[Bama Chick 28596]

 
My husband and one of our friends is going to that, while her husband and myself are planning to go to a bar instead. If you come out here, we'd be happy to entertain you after the show. You'll have some other superfans around even!

Which date are they going to?

I’m not sure if I can swing another trip so soon after my NYC trip but I may just say fuck it lol.

Two of his shows are Sunday night ones so I could conceivably fly out on Saturday and fly home on Monday and only miss one day of work.

The Austin ticket prices are much MUCH lower than the NYC ones and if the airfare is right…….

Y’all got any recommendations for a nice, safe, reasonably priced hotel near the Moody Center?

I’ve never been to Austin so I don’t know shit about fuck.

[tx 3 putt 76932]

12 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

I’m not sure if I can swing another trip so soon after my NYC trip but I may just say fuck it lol.

 

 

 

do it. you'll have a good time. ive met so many great people and lifelong friends here, I've lost count.

 

Edited August 16, 2022 by tx 3 putt

[StruggleBus 3922]

Texas has a better shot at beating Alabama than Beto does at winning this election. Stop it. 

[mchookem 16330]

[Bama Chick 28596]

Texas has a better shot at beating Alabama than Beto does at winning this election. Stop it. 

[Hmbre97 6308]

Let's hope Beto doesn't blow out his knee then