The Beto Effect - How To Lose Elections and Influence Nothing

[chainsaw 9867]

Has Beto been hammering abbott over the morale problem with the national guard?

 

https://abcnews.go.com/US/suicides-living-conditions-spark-concern-texas-national-guard/story?id=82540700

 

Quote

ABC News has spoken to three soldiers in the Guard who asked that their names not be used so they can talk freely about the issues they say are affecting morale among some of their fellow service members deployed to the border.

They say those problems have ranged from pay delays to poor housing arrangements and inadequate training to assist Border Patrol in apprehending immigrants. Some of the guardsmen who spoke to ABC News say word of the suspected suicides of four members of the National Guard since October has also prompted them to come forward. The concerns raised by these members of the Guard add to the mounting pressure the program has already faced from Democratic lawmakers and advocates who say the mission violates the rights of immigrants who should be given the opportunity to seek asylum in the United States without fear of being detained for weeks at a time.

 

[DigglerontheHoof 21198]

So I see tons of Abbott commercials on TV but have yet to see a Beto commercial.  Is his campaign broke?

[chainsaw 9867]

1 minute ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

So I see tons of Abbott commercials on TV but have yet to see a Beto commercial.  Is his campaign broke?

I doubt it. From what I can tell, TV doesn't really help until it's closer to the election.

[C-Man 27224]

7 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

So I see tons of Abbott commercials on TV but have yet to see a Beto commercial.  Is his campaign broke?

 

5 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I doubt it. From what I can tell, TV doesn't really help until it's closer to the election.

This is what all the Beto fundraising emails seem to be implying. Abbott has a LOT more money to spend and is going to deploy those resources sooner.

[Js1 85328]

12 minutes ago, C-Man said:

 

This is what all the Beto fundraising emails seem to be implying. Abbott has a LOT more money to spend and is going to deploy those resources sooner.

Meh every fundraising email says they’re broke. It’s a ploy. Abbott does have way more money. Beto took in $27 million last quarter. Spare me that broke nonsense, he outraised Abbott. Wheels just had a head start, he’s been fundraising since 2018

[chainsaw 9867]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Meh every fundraising email says they’re broke. It’s a ploy. Abbott does have way more money. Beto took in $27 million last quarter. Spare me that broke nonsense, he outraised Abbott. Wheels just had a head start, he’s been fundraising since 2018

Yeah it's the ultimate "crying wolf" technique. I suppose it works because they keep doing it.

Abbott has billionaires and big oil in his corner, so he's never going to be low on money, but the idea that Beto is on the brink of financial collapse is ludicrous. He's just being strategic about his ad buys and focusing on authentic, in-person engagement. It's a strategy that helped him in 2018 and in theory it should be even more effective in 2022.

Beto is convinced Texas is "a nonvoting state" with a lot of votes up for grabs if you focus on turnout. If that is true, I wish we had someone like Stacey Abrams but we don't. This tour is basically the next best thing to that. Then it will be a debate and probably a bunch of TV/online ads.

I like seeing him more aggressive vs the "high road" strategy he had against Ted Cruz. Sling mud at the right times, for the right reasons.

[Beantown Express 2.0 6559]

8 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I like seeing him more aggressive vs the "high road" strategy he had against Ted Cruz. Sling mud at the right times, for the right reasons.

This right here.  Beto needs to point out the ERCOT issues leading to people freezing to death and Abbott doing nothing about it, our children being gunned down in schools and Abbott doing nothing about it, and abortion to get the female vote out. 

[mchookem 16334]

yeah and i mean there is a LOT of mud to be slung. name an issue, it's muddy as hell for Abbott. DPS, DFPS, TJJD, ERCOT, guns, border fiasco, etc etc etc..

that's what happens when you and your party have had sole and complete control over the state for decades... they are all filthy pigs. fuck em all.

 

[A-Tex Devil 2446]

1 hour ago, mchookem said:

yeah and i mean there is a LOT of mud to be slung. name an issue, it's muddy as hell for Abbott. DPS, DFPS, TJJD, ERCOT, guns, border fiasco, etc etc etc..

that's what happens when you and your party have had sole and complete control over the state for decades... they are all filthy pigs. fuck em all.

 

Just listened to Beto on Pod Save America, which isn't going to win him votes obviously given it's his choir, but he opened up a bit on campaign strategy.  I think he learned a lot of lessons from 2018, including as it relates to scheduling the personal appearances.  He is going to be in the Valley a lot in early September then will be in some of the more urban areas where voter turnout has been low as well.  I think he gets it.  It was a real measured interview with no rah rah stuff.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33869]

4 hours ago, mchookem said:

yeah and i mean there is a LOT of mud to be slung. name an issue, it's muddy as hell for Abbott. DPS, DFPS, TJJD, ERCOT, guns, border fiasco, etc etc etc..

that's what happens when you and your party have had sole and complete control over the state for decades... they are all filthy pigs. fuck em all.

 

go ahead and add in climate change. see: Dallas

[C-Man 27224]

5 hours ago, chainsaw said:

Yeah it's the ultimate "crying wolf" technique. I suppose it works because they keep doing it.

Abbott has billionaires and big oil in his corner, so he's never going to be low on money, but the idea that Beto is on the brink of financial collapse is ludicrous. He's just being strategic about his ad buys and focusing on authentic, in-person engagement. It's a strategy that helped him in 2018 and in theory it should be even more effective in 2022.

Beto is convinced Texas is "a nonvoting state" with a lot of votes up for grabs if you focus on turnout. If that is true, I wish we had someone like Stacey Abrams but we don't. This tour is basically the next best thing to that. Then it will be a debate and probably a bunch of TV/online ads.

I like seeing him more aggressive vs the "high road" strategy he had against Ted Cruz. Sling mud at the right times, for the right reasons.

I didn't mean to imply that Beto is broke IMO. I was merely commenting on the apparent strategy of Beto "keeping his powder dry" before unloading closer to the election.

According to this, despite Beto's successful fundraising, Hot Wheels still has twice as much cash on hand so therefore can spend a little freer.

FORGOT THE LINK: https://www.texastribune.org/2022/07/19/abbott-beto-fundraising-governor-2022/

Edited August 23, 2022 by C-Man

[chainsaw 9867]

1 minute ago, C-Man said:

I didn't mean to imply that Beto is broke IMO. I was merely commenting on the apparent strategy of Beto "keeping his powder dry" before unloading closer to the election.

According to this, despite Beto's successful fundraising, Hot Wheels still has twice as much cash on hand so therefore can spend a little freer.

I think there's diminishing returns on ad spends. After a certain point, if your product sucks, no amount of marketing will fix it.

[Js1 85328]

7 minutes ago, C-Man said:

I didn't mean to imply that Beto is broke IMO. I was merely commenting on the apparent strategy of Beto "keeping his powder dry" before unloading closer to the election.

According to this, despite Beto's successful fundraising, Hot Wheels still has twice as much cash on hand so therefore can spend a little freer.

FORGOT THE LINK: https://www.texastribune.org/2022/07/19/abbott-beto-fundraising-governor-2022/

I'd like to see what he's spending it on.

Spending heavily on GOTV will give you greater returns than TV ads. 

Wheels has 2x as much COH because he's been hording money since 2018.  He got his ass outraised last quarter.  Beto raised the most in a quarter in Texas candidate history. 

[The Original Greaser Bob 2833]

Walking the kids dog around Allen, TX (Watters Creek area).  Three Beto signs (no Abbott).

So that was nice.

[NorthLoop 14196]

18 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

go ahead and add in climate change. see: Dallas

We have actual posters on this site with phd's that don't believe in climate change. It might not be the best issue to bring up during the election. Now AFTER he's elected... 

[Biff Tannen 45683]

Reporter yesterday asked Abbott if he could even say the words "climate change".  He could not.

[DigglerontheHoof 21198]

13 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

We have actual posters on this site with phd's that don't believe in climate change. It might not be the best issue to bring up during the election. Now AFTER he's elected... 

I have quite a few friends/acquaintances who have moved from "climate change is fake" to "well, it's too late now, we'll adapt to whatever is coming down the pipe".  But they're definitely still all in on carbon based energy>>>>green energy, regardless. 

[StassneyHorn 6575]

Basket weaving, Gender Studies, Petroleum Engineering. I’m not paying for these idiot kids educations with no future.

[Biff Tannen 45683]

12 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

I have quite a few friends/acquaintances who have moved from "climate change is fake" to "well, it's too late now, we'll adapt to whatever is coming down the pipe".  But they're definitely still all in on carbon based energy>>>>green energy, regardless. 

They aren't wrong on the first part, that it's too late.  But to not even try and mitigate the problem is just fucking idiotic.  That is something I will never understand, especially if they have kids.  I don't have kids and am not going to.  I'm just going to try and enjoy what we have left during my life. 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33869]

3 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

We have actual posters on this site with phd's that don't believe in climate change. It might not be the best issue to bring up during the election. Now AFTER he's elected... 

fuck 'em. it's way past time to be even entertaining their bullshit anymore. point and laugh at them and give them the middle finger as we move on to the future and they can stay stuck in whatever fantasy land it is they live in. they get not political quarter anymore. they spent their chit a long fucking time ago and now they owe us, not the other way around.

3 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Reporter yesterday asked Abbott if he could even say the words "climate change".  He could not.

fuck that guy. dump his ass over the stage and put in somebody with a working fucking spine.

[CTC2 2797]

4 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

They aren't wrong on the first part, that it's too late.  But to not even try and mitigate the problem is just fucking idiotic.  That is something I will never understand, especially if they have kids.  I don't have kids and am not going to.  I'm just going to try and enjoy what we have left during my life. 

If it causes the rapture to come sooner they are all for it. 

[Pato del Muerto 52497]

1 minute ago, CTC2 said:

If it causes the rapture to come sooner they are all for it. 

I think that there will be a lot of confused people standing around earth after the rapture. 

[CTC2 2797]

On 8/23/2022 at 2:49 PM, chainsaw said:

I think there's diminishing returns on ad spends. After a certain point, if your product sucks, no amount of marketing will fix it.

There is something to negative advertising driving the negatives of an opponent up. It suppresses turnout and picks some people off. 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33869]

2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I think that there will be a lot of confused people standing around earth after the rapture. 

kinda wish more would go the jim jones route, but leave the children out of it.

[Biff Tannen 45683]

12 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I think that there will be a lot of confused people standing around earth after the rapture. 

More than there are now?

[Pato del Muerto 52497]

6 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

More than there are now?

Yeah. The people that will be confused then, are very certain now. 

[Nivek 16928]

I saw him in Humble today.  Crowd of Abbott supporters outside who had dumb hastily made posters with typical ignorant shit using words they have no idea what they mean.   The Land Commissioner candidate kept making Stand for Texas, Stand up, comments.   I chortled but I think few others connected the dots.   He seems like a good guy, but he needs a message.  Campaign branding isn't about talking about the 1000 horrible shit the other candidate did.   It is picking a  1-3 items and hammering the shit out of that.   (Volvo, It's boxy, but good. )   He talked about their being anti-democratic, he talked about lowering property taxes, he talked about gun control, he talked about climate, he talked about gerrymandering, he talked about disaster money spent elsewhere to punish Harris county.  He talked about a lot.  Mostly it was about not being a dick.  It was a decent speech.  He is a good guy.  But if he doesn't get his shit focused and go on the attack he will lose.    Just trying to register voters isn't going it cut it.  

You have to make it embarrassing to be an Abbott supporter.   

[Longhorn_Fan68 33869]

19 hours ago, Nivek said:

You have to make it embarrassing to be an Abbott supporter.   

isn't that literally just looking in the mirror or the snake eating its tail or some shit. i dunno, there's a metaphor here somewhere. but it's a self-fulfilling thing. just ignore them and pump up your guy. they're going to holler regardless

[Bruh Man 3160]

O’Rourke’s six-figure ad campaign will run on television stations and digital platforms in Dallas, Houston, Austin, Corpus Christi, Laredo, San Antonio and the Rio Grande Valley.

 

 

[Guest]

Beto is down in Lockhart at 5:30 today if any of you folks want to go see him.

[chainsaw 9867]

7 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

O’Rourke’s six-figure ad campaign will run on television stations and digital platforms in Dallas, Houston, Austin, Corpus Christi, Laredo, San Antonio and the Rio Grande Valley.

 

 

great ad

[Biff Tannen 45683]

1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

great ad

Yep.  Simple, to the point, and fuck Abbott.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

Beto needs the ads to show Texans how all of our statewide problems are attributed to Abbott.  If someone wants to for Greg, at least ensure they understand that Greg doesn’t care about solving Texans’ problems.

 

[bolverk 29671]

At a Beto rally (Posting only as a link to avoid autoplay)

https://www.reddit.com/r/texas/comments/wxejih/hostile_encounter_with_maga_death_cult_members_at/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

@clapclapclap Here's some more political violence for you.

 

 

Edited August 25, 2022 by bolverk

[Biff Tannen 45683]

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

@clapclapclap Here's some more political violence for you.

https://www.reddit.com/r/texas/comments/wxejih/hostile_encounter_with_maga_death_cult_members_at/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

(Posting only as a link to avoid autoplay)

 

From the comments.  This guy almost gets it.

Quote

 

level 1

bemybf

·7 hr. ago

 

I've been to a lot of political rallies as a political reporter and I've never seen the other guys' people showing up until recently.

Going to a rally to protest people who already know who they are voting for is such a waste of time, politically speaking. If they actually wanted to make a difference they would be block walking and calling and writing letters for their side.

But I guess the point isn't to have their team win. The point is to intimidate the other side.

 

The point is to intimidate the other side AND use violence to get their way.

[bolverk 29671]

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

From the comments.  This guy almost gets it.

 

The point is to intimidate the other side AND use violence to get their way.

Yup

[tx 3 putt 76951]

7 minutes ago, bolverk said:

At a Beto rally (Posting only as a link to avoid autoplay)

https://www.reddit.com/r/texas/comments/wxejih/hostile_encounter_with_maga_death_cult_members_at/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

@clapclapclap Here's some more political violence for you.

 

 

 

both those fuckers need to be shot, dead. 

[Nivek 16928]

Remember when Tahoe used to post the pictures of the Black Panthers standing around with Assault Rifles.... so both sides?

[Bruh Man 3160]

I expect a lot of violence this November. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

both those fuckers need to be shot, dead. 

well they're probably both packing, so that's your best bet. You can't just give those pussies an old school ass kicking, because they're just itching for an excuse to shoot a lib like their hero Rittenhouse. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

From that video, I doubt that woman’s story that an “illegal alien” drowned her 3 year old son. I could be wrong but I would think that would be a major story. Of course, It really doesn’t matter what the Texas governor wants to do with immigration. The constitution is clear that is a federal issue.

[Nivek 16928]

11 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

From that video, I doubt that woman’s story that an “illegal alien” drowned her 3 year old son. I could be wrong but I would think that would be a major story. Of course, It really doesn’t matter what the Texas governor wants to do with immigration. The constitution is clear that is a federal issue.

More likely she ignored the kid around the ocean and thought the kid could swim because he had 2 lessons and mommy said no to the water while slamming beers and listening to bro country music.  Then some Spanish speaker was holding up her kid in the water rushing to the shore when all of the sudden she accidentally noticed the scene and then accused the person of trying to drown the kid to mask her negligence.   

Anyway, that is my story and I'm sticking to it. 

[Wally Pryor 5261]

14 hours ago, bolverk said:

At a Beto rally (Posting only as a link to avoid autoplay)

https://www.reddit.com/r/texas/comments/wxejih/hostile_encounter_with_maga_death_cult_members_at/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

@clapclapclap Here's some more political violence for you.

 

 

 

There is so, so much cleansing of the gene pool that needs to be done. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

27 minutes ago, Nivek said:

More likely she ignored the kid around the ocean and thought the kid could swim because he had 2 lessons and mommy said no to the water while slamming beers and listening to bro country music.  Then some Spanish speaker was holding up her kid in the water rushing to the shore when all of the sudden she accidentally noticed the scene and then accused the person of trying to drown the kid to mask her negligence.   

Anyway, that is my story and I'm sticking to it. 

100% believable. Or she's an actual crisis actor. 

[High Plains Drifter 11049]

On 8/22/2022 at 1:28 PM, tx 3 putt said:

I would have zero faith in dps 

 

and negative faith in local pd.

 

 

[Js1 85328]

12 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

From that video, I doubt that woman’s story that an “illegal alien” drowned her 3 year old son. I could be wrong but I would think that would be a major story. Of course, It really doesn’t matter what the Texas governor wants to do with immigration. The constitution is clear that is a federal issue.

Why is my mom at Beto rallies? 

[DigglerontheHoof 21198]

14 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

From that video, I doubt that woman’s story that an “illegal alien” drowned her 3 year old son. I could be wrong but I would think that would be a major story. Of course, It really doesn’t matter what the Texas governor wants to do with immigration. The constitution is clear that is a federal issue.

That someone could actually have sex with that wildebeest…

[pyrohornIII 4814]

On 8/19/2022 at 2:16 PM, chainsaw said:

I hope he does well in Gillespie. There are Beto groupies who follow him around like he's Phish, so it's hard to know how many of the people are are from Gillespie County and how many are libs from Austin/SA.

 

2 hours ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

and negative faith in local pd.

 

 

I've been to 3 of his events in rural counties.  County chairs tend to go to the ones close by because we usually have our own voters traveling to attend and we want to be present with them if they are making that effort.  Anyway I made Milam, Madison and Falls.  I didn't see many groupies or people who seemed to be a traveling following.  I would say the bulk of the attendees were from the area he was in.

 

Also our interaction with LEOs at all the events has been professional and courteous.  Now some of their families might be in the crowd protesting, but they were taking their jobs seriously.  

[Pato del Muerto 52497]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Why is my mom at Beto rallies? 

Condolences on your previous drowning

[chainsaw 9867]

9 minutes ago, pyrohornIII said:

 

I've been to 3 of his events in rural counties.  County chairs tend to go to the ones close by because we usually have our own voters traveling to attend and we want to be present with them if they are making that effort.  Anyway I made Milam, Madison and Falls.  I didn't see many groupies or people who seemed to be a traveling following.  I would say the bulk of the attendees were from the area he was in.

 

Also our interaction with LEOs at all the events has been professional and courteous.  Now some of their families might be in the crowd protesting, but they were taking their jobs seriously.  

Thanks for the intel.