The Beto Effect - How To Lose Elections and Influence Nothing

[Bruh Man 3160]

Get ready to be let down by suburban white women and Hispanics. 

Edited August 12, 2022 by Bruh Man

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

21 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

Get ready to be let down by suburban white women and Hispanics. 

Maybe, but my neighbor (who fits the first category) has gotten rather motivated by Abbott due to COVID, the energy debacle, and RvW. She has a daughter and thinks he has completely ruined the state for her children. She donated and got a yard sign and I just don't see that he can redeem himself in her eyes, especially after it got worse when she tried to call his office and got nowhere.

All of those issues affect her family personally, and regardless of how I feel about that with respect to voting in general, I am not going to quibble over it with what is at stake here.

Edited August 12, 2022 by Mrs Whiggins
adding the bolded

[Beau Vine 54218]

11 hours ago, RabidM said:

It would also help if enough conservative women look at their daughters and choose their daughters' rights over owning the libs.  They can always just lie about who they voted for to their friends. 

But their daughters aren't filthy whorish sluts!

[Js1 85320]

7 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

But their daughters aren't filthy whorish sluts!

And if they were, it’s probably bc (the blacks) did it. 

[Guest]

24 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Maybe, but my neighbor (who fits the first category) has gotten rather motivated by Abbott due to COVID, the energy debacle, and RvW. She has a daughter and thinks he has completely ruined the state for her children. She donated and got a yard sign and I just don't see that he can redeem himself in her eyes, especially after it got worse when she tried to call his office and got nowhere.

All of those issues affect her family personally, and regardless of how I feel about that with respect to voting in general, I am not going to quibble over it with what is at stake here.

Have another anecdote about affluent Austin woman who said "I guess I'm a Democrat now" following RvW. Has two daughters. Was on the fence of Trump vs. Biden because figured Trump would be better for her taxes but didn't like him, but says she did vote Biden. 

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

22 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Have another anecdote about affluent Austin woman who said "I guess I'm a Democrat now" following RvW. Has two daughters. Was on the fence of Trump vs. Biden because figured Trump would be better for her taxes but didn't like him, but says she did vote Biden. 

Yeah, I realize mine is entirely anecdotal as well, but it was an interesting turn because the piney woods relatives apparently have been kept in the dark. So, a closet Democrat if you will, but one who is now sending me articles and information about politicians. Hopefully the momentum will last.

[Beau Vine 54218]

28 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Have another anecdote about affluent Austin woman who said "I guess I'm a Democrat now" following RvW. Has two daughters. Was on the fence of Trump vs. Biden because figured Trump would be better for her taxes but didn't like him, but says she did vote Biden. 

She voted for Trump and will vote for Abbott in the fall.  Guaranteed.

[chainsaw 9867]

1 minute ago, Beau Vine said:

She voted for Trump and will vote for Abbott in the fall.  Guaranteed.

Assume that, but maybe we will be pleasantly surprised. Doesn't change what we should be doing today or tomorrow.

[pyrohornIII 4814]

11 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

No Trump on the ballot, the only inspiring character is Beto. He needs to bring Collier and Garza on these next stops.

The times I saw him he had at least one other down ballot candidate.  Luke Warford and Janet Dudding both were with him this past Saturday.  

3 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I literally have no idea what Collier and Garzo look like. I've never seen them, heard them speak, seen an ad, billboard, yard sign.

 

https://thetexan.news/vouchers-are-for-vultures-claims-collier-in-speech-at-texas-democratic-convention/

 

 

 

 

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

21 hours ago, Satchel said:

It will be so refreshing to have a governor who is not only bilingual but is multilingual and is able to employ a  lingua franca  understood by everybody.

It will be so refreshing to have a governor that is bipedal.

[RPM 26319]

I can't hold a disability against a man. FDR defeated the great depression and won WWII. 

Huh? Greg Abbott has restricted voting, buried DPS information on Uvalde and raised money from the NRA the day after the shooting? 

Fuck that gimp.

Edited August 12, 2022 by RPM

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

43 minutes ago, RPM said:

I can't hold a disability against a man. FDR defeated the great depression and won WWII. 

Huh? Greg Abbott has restricted voting, buried DPS information on Uvalde and raised money from the NRA the day after the shooting? 

Fuck that gimp.

While we make fun of Abbott being confined to a wheelchair, his real disability is his lack of spine.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

She voted for Trump and will vote for Abbott in the fall.  Guaranteed.

Oh, wouldn't surprise me but just going off what I hear.

[Pancho 44769]

Dad called me this morning. He’s a dad so he’s not going to admit his excitement but he was excited:

 

 

[Satchel 6938]

1 hour ago, Grade of D as in David said:

While we make fun of Abbott being confined to a wheelchair, his real disability is his lack of spine.

On top of that, he supported restrictions on injury victims compensations after he was awarded millions. Just a loathsome person.

[Biff Tannen 45678]

4 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Have another anecdote about affluent Austin woman who said "I guess I'm a Democrat now" following RvW. Has two daughters. Was on the fence of Trump vs. Biden because figured Trump would be better for her taxes but didn't like him, but says she did vote Biden. 

I think the idea of taxes has been completely corrupted.  I get that there's a fuck ton of government waste, but it seems like people like this don't want to pay taxes AT ALL.  They don't have any concept of the overall societal good that taxes fund.  Taxes have just been built into this boogeyman that is nebulous and vague.  

Shit, I don't ever expect to see anything from social security, but I'm ok with paying a fuck ton out of each paycheck for that because it's taking care of a ton of people.  I lost my train of thought on this.

[Satchel 6938]

Should Beto win, his improbable victory could be attributed to people being tired of Republican rule after 30 years. They’re curious about what life in Texas would be like with Democrats in charge.

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

I think the idea of taxes has been completely corrupted.  I get that there's a fuck ton of government waste, but it seems like people like this don't want to pay taxes AT ALL.  They don't have any concept of the overall societal good that taxes fund.  Taxes have just been built into this boogeyman that is nebulous and vague.  

Shit, I don't ever expect to see anything from social security, but I'm ok with paying a fuck ton out of each paycheck for that because it's taking care of a ton of people.  I lost my train of thought on this.

Of course people are going to hate taxes when a political party spends 90% of their effort and energy to “ cut taxes” while they have power. I can’t remember the last time the GOP tried to pass a major piece of legislation that wasn’t a tax cut. It’s all about helping the wealthy with those guys.

[27-25 2047]

1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

I think the idea of taxes has been completely corrupted.  I get that there's a fuck ton of government waste, but it seems like people like this don't want to pay taxes AT ALL.  They don't have any concept of the overall societal good that taxes fund.  Taxes have just been built into this boogeyman that is nebulous and vague.  

Shit, I don't ever expect to see anything from social security, but I'm ok with paying a fuck ton out of each paycheck for that because it's taking care of a ton of people.  I lost my train of thought on this.

Ask the average GQP anti-tax ranter when they would like to turn the clock back to and the 1950's is often the answer.  What was the max tax rate in the 1950's?  Over 90%.  Yes, the average wealthy person paid nowhere near that percentage.  But the constant bitching from billionaires about how high taxes are is getting really tiring.  You've never had it so good.  Shut the fuck up!

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

Of course people are going to hate taxes when a political party spends 90% of their effort and energy to “ cut taxes” while they have power. I can’t remember the last time the GOP tried to pass a major piece of legislation that wasn’t a tax cut. It’s all about helping the wealthy with those guys.

Was it GHWB? It was the right thing to do, but it probably cost him a second term. 

[LCHorn 2620]

2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Of course people are going to hate taxes when a political party spends 90% of their effort and energy to “ cut taxes” while they have power. I can’t remember the last time the GOP tried to pass a major piece of legislation that wasn’t a tax cut. It’s all about helping the wealthy with those guys.

Historically speaking, this is the only part of their party’s platform that doesn’t play as poison in a general election.  
 

It’s funny/sad that all the most vile parts of Christianity and conservatism has effectively become their rallying cry rather than moderating from it as candidates before Trump sought to do.  What’s less funny is seeing it work to win elections.  

[atomheartbevo 89658]

5 hours ago, Satchel said:

On top of that, he supported restrictions on injury victims compensations after he was awarded millions. Just a loathsome person.

And Abbott still collects that money today - that info is in his financial disclosures.  He’s still raking in a lot of money from it.  Somebody with that same accident today?  They can get fucked as far as Abbott is concerned.

[CTC2 2797]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And Abbott still collects that money today - that info is in his financial disclosures.  He’s still raking in a lot of money from it.  Somebody with that same accident today?  They can get fucked as far as Abbott is concerned.

That’s exactly why I have no issue with calling him Hot Wheels or making fun of him at the RRS for wearing a diaper. 

[Bullneck 19084]

8 hours ago, pyrohornIII said:

The times I saw him he had at least one other down ballot candidate.  Luke Warford and Janet Dudding both were with him this past Saturday.  

 

https://thetexan.news/vouchers-are-for-vultures-claims-collier-in-speech-at-texas-democratic-convention/

 

 

 

 

[chainsaw 9867]

11 hours ago, Bruh Man said:

Get ready to be let down by suburban white women and Hispanics. 

Tinder has prepared me for this

[chainsaw 9867]

6 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

I think the idea of taxes has been completely corrupted.  I get that there's a fuck ton of government waste, but it seems like people like this don't want to pay taxes AT ALL.  They don't have any concept of the overall societal good that taxes fund.  Taxes have just been built into this boogeyman that is nebulous and vague.  

Shit, I don't ever expect to see anything from social security, but I'm ok with paying a fuck ton out of each paycheck for that because it's taking care of a ton of people.  I lost my train of thought on this.

Fiscal responsibility for thee but not for me. 80% of the dumbest financial decisions I have ever witnessed have involved Country Club members. And all of them are republicans.

Edited August 13, 2022 by chainsaw
borked it

[brakeman 28362]

On 8/11/2022 at 12:34 AM, brakeman said:

Shout out ERhine! Thank you for your service!

Edited August 13, 2022 by brakeman
You move the meat of surly, I salute you. Vote Beto, Motherfucker.

[Pancho 44769]

A few pics from Beto in Gainesville at my parents’ church (and where I went to church as a little one)

 

[brakeman 28362]

12 hours ago, Bruh Man said:

Get ready to be let down by suburban white women and Hispanics. 

I want to dream and have hope. If not now, when. 

Vote Beto.

[Voldemort86 2259]

6 hours ago, LCHorn said:

Historically speaking, this is the only part of their party’s platform that doesn’t play as poison in a general election.  
 

It’s funny/sad that all the most vile parts of Christianity and conservatism has effectively become their rallying cry rather than moderating from it as candidates before Trump sought to do.  What’s less funny is seeing it work to win elections.  

I’m just a regular guy. I’m never going to be rich. My mindset with tax cuts is always why do I want to save $100 while some family in south lake or highland park is saving 100,000?

tax cuts favor the wealthy. It’s a policy where 80% of the benefit goes to the wealthy. The GOP is able to rope in low information voters like people who work at Walmart 40 hours a week ( nothing wrong with that just making a common example) with no educational background by distracting them with crap like abortion, their freedoms being “ under attack”, and owning the libs, but realistically these folks don’t gain anything personally by the GOP winning. 
 

it’s quite sad that probably close to 40% of Americans vote against their own self interests. I had a neighbor growing up who had some kind of disability with his eyes. He had a “nobama” sign in his yard in 2012. Mitt Romney was going to take away his disability benefits and he happily voted for the man like a fucking dumbass.

[elfenix 34238]

9 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Of course people are going to hate taxes when a political party spends 90% of their effort and energy to “ cut taxes” while they have power. I can’t remember the last time the GOP tried to pass a major piece of legislation that wasn’t a tax cut. It’s all about helping the wealthy with those guys.

medicare D

[RPM 26319]

2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

I had a neighbor growing up who had some kind of disability with his eyes. He had a “nobama” sign in his yard in 2012. Mitt Romney was going to take away his disability benefits and he happily voted for the man like a fucking dumbass.

All he saw was a black man.

[WhatTheBuck 28779]

12 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Was it GHWB? It was the right thing to do, but it probably cost him a second term. 

The fact that he raised taxes after promising, “Read my lips: no new taxes,” certainly didn’t help. But getting out of the Gulf War, when he was enjoying high approval ratings, really hurt. That left Clinton free to focus on, “It’s the economy, stupid,” as the economy was slumping and unemployment was on the rise.

After Reagan made massive tax cuts that favored the rich, then went on a deficit spending spree, he raised taxes five times. He still introduced the era of massive federal debt during times of relative peace. His first year in office saw the national debt surpass $1 Trillion for the first time. He also introduced the era of rising wealth disparity.

[RPM 26319]

Reagan sucked. Nancy needed a better astrologist.

[Voldemort86 2259]

30 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

The fact that he raised taxes after promising, “Read my lips: no new taxes,” certainly didn’t help. But getting out of the Gulf War, when he was enjoying high approval ratings, really hurt. That left Clinton free to focus on, “It’s the economy, stupid,” as the economy was slumping and unemployment was on the rise.

After Reagan made massive tax cuts that favored the rich, then went on a deficit spending spree, he raised taxes five times. He still introduced the era of massive federal debt during times of relative peace. His first year in office saw the national debt surpass $1 Trillion for the first time. He also introduced the era of rising wealth disparity.

That’s what the Bush presidents are known for.  Unpopular wars and an economy in the shitter.

[WhatTheBuck 28779]

17 hours ago, 27-25 said:

Ask the average GQP anti-tax ranter when they would like to turn the clock back to and the 1950's is often the answer.  What was the max tax rate in the 1950's?  Over 90%.  Yes, the average wealthy person paid nowhere near that percentage.  But the constant bitching from billionaires about how high taxes are is getting really tiring.  You've never had it so good.  Shut the fuck up!

For reference, here’s a 1955 article from Fortune magazine that discusses how top executives at the time lived, back when they made 10 times what the average worker made and not 300 times as much like they do now:

https://fortune.com/2012/05/06/how-top-executives-live-fortune-1955

[chainsaw 9867]

4 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

The fact that he raised taxes after promising, “Read my lips: no new taxes,” certainly didn’t help. But getting out of the Gulf War, when he was enjoying high approval ratings, really hurt. That left Clinton free to focus on, “It’s the economy, stupid,” as the economy was slumping and unemployment was on the rise.

After Reagan made massive tax cuts that favored the rich, then went on a deficit spending spree, he raised taxes five times. He still introduced the era of massive federal debt during times of relative peace. His first year in office saw the national debt surpass $1 Trillion for the first time. He also introduced the era of rising wealth disparity.

Also Ross Perot

[Slacks 6819]

23 hours ago, Js1 said:

And if they were, it’s probably bc (the blacks) did it. 

[Slacks 6819]

7 hours ago, RPM said:

All he saw was a black man.

[Hagbard Celine 10859]

19 hours ago, Satchel said:

Should Beto win, his improbable victory could be attributed to people being tired of Republican rule after 30 years. They’re curious about what life in Texas would be like with Democrats in charge.

The Texas grid will be reconnected to the rest of North America.  When the next polar vortex is forecasted, the owners of rona-emptied office buildings will be fined $10000/hour for every building with their lights on.  The national guard will be mobilized in advance.   The sewer and water systems of major metropolitan areas will be taken over by the national guard.

[Voldemort86 2259]

46 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

The Texas grid will be reconnected to the rest of North America.  When the next polar vortex is forecasted, the owners of rona-emptied office buildings will be fined $10000/hour for every building with their lights on.  The national guard will be mobilized in advance.   The sewer and water systems of major metropolitan areas will be taken over by the national guard.

Are office buildings really empty?  I’ve been reading about supposedly everyone going back to work now.

[Hagbard Celine 10859]

2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Are office buildings really empty?  I’ve been reading about supposedly everyone going back to work now.

during the arctic catastrophe in texas in february of 2021, to save the grid, power was killed to millions of homes, while millions of lights burned through the night in 50000 empty office buildings in cities across the state, as documented on this very board

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

Methinks that some are worried about the numbers of late. Without having an account(s), social media is more difficult to navigate now-- but in the places I can go I am seeing lots of anti-Beto bots and suspicious accounts that pile on every positive Beto tweet.

[LCHorn 2620]

So someone that’s a polling nerd talk me onto the ledge; I think Beto has maxed out at 44% (per the U of H poll) because of high name ID.  Maybe he picks up a percentage point or two of the undecided but more than likely splits those with Abbott, which doesn’t close a 5% or 6% gap.  
 

What’s the play if you’re advising the Beto campaign?  You need to peel away some likely GOP voters and the current polls presumably reflect the suburban Mom “I’m quiet pro choice Republican” already.  You and your opponent likely don’t have much ground to gain with large media spends (because of the high name ID), so how do you a) foster turnout and b) crack Abbott’s block of supporters?  Or, will it take Biden getting into the 40% or higher approval range to generate enough enthusiasm that mid-term turnout works for the Dems?

One last question; if you think Beto needs to go negative, how do you do it to hit Republican voters and not have it bleed onto the undecided?

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

Has anyone in 30 years of GQP control of the state actually seen their taxes reduced (1%ers excepted)?

[chainsaw 9867]

8 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

So someone that’s a polling nerd talk me onto the ledge; I think Beto has maxed out at 44% (per the U of H poll) because of high name ID.  Maybe he picks up a percentage point or two of the undecided but more than likely splits those with Abbott, which doesn’t close a 5% or 6% gap.  
 

What’s the play if you’re advising the Beto campaign?  You need to peel away some likely GOP voters and the current polls presumably reflect the suburban Mom “I’m quiet pro choice Republican” already.  You and your opponent likely don’t have much ground to gain with large media spends (because of the high name ID), so how do you a) foster turnout and b) crack Abbott’s block of supporters?  Or, will it take Biden getting into the 40% or higher approval range to generate enough enthusiasm that mid-term turnout works for the Dems?

One last question; if you think Beto needs to go negative, how do you do it to hit Republican voters and not have it bleed onto the undecided?

Lots of people voted Beto for Senate, Abbott for Gov in 2018, and that's before Abbott had taken a hard right turn and was more of a Rick Perry protege.

My guess is that "bloc" goes overwhelmingly for Beto if current trends keep (Dems getting Ws) 

[LCHorn 2620]

4 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Lots of people voted Beto for Senate, Abbott for Gov in 2018, and that's before Abbott had taken a hard right turn and was more of a Rick Perry protege.

My guess is that "bloc" goes overwhelmingly for Beto if current trends keep (Dems getting Ws) 

We’re all aging in dog years now and the electorate is increasingly averse to ticket splitting.  I don’t think a (Robert the Bruce voice) “you voted for me before, now vote for me again.” appeal from Beto is going to work on anyone that is currently polling for Abbott (or at least not enough to make up the gap).  
 

I’m sure someone else has said it already upthread, but Beto probably takes this if he had spent the past four years building a turnout machine like Stacey Abrams instead of that ill-advised run for President.  

[troph 24788]

17 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Has anyone in 30 years of GQP control of the state actually seen their taxes reduced (1%ers excepted)?

Given tax isn’t income based at all no one has seen taxes go down in this state. It’s most insane part about the whole thing. Sales tax is a parentage of ever rising prices, property tax is a percentage of ever rising values. And yet nothing gets fixed around here.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

2 minutes ago, troph said:

Given tax isn’t income based at all no one has seen taxes go down in this state. It’s most insane part about the whole thing. Sales tax is a parentage of ever rising prices, property tax is a percentage of ever rising values. And yet nothing gets fixed around here.

Don't forget "fees." Fees are one way that the pols use to have voters eyes looking one way instead of actually reading the bill. (somewhat like the recent phone bill rise that was discussed). They've been using fees to balance their budget for over a decade. They've added them in all sorts of ways-- auto insurance add ons, etc. I was fairly certain that was going to be Huffines main recourse had he gotten elected.

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]