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Zavala

By Zavala
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Zavala

Zavala 1384

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It's kind of central to American politics. The GOP used to be the party of the elites, now with Trump they are trying to become the party of the  now shrinking middle class. The reverse has happened with the Democrats, now they are becoming the party of the lowest and highest wealth classes of people. 

Where does everyone see the economy going in the next 5 or 10 years?

Any opinions on this video?

 

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elfenix
elfenix

*thinks the US should be running surplusses generally* *watches the US run a surplus for the first time in his lifetime* *watches the republicans pass not just one but two tax cuts which put us on the

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

This. And as for Onboard's preferred economic approach -- I generally share that.  But here's what I realized about the GOP -- not only are they NOT in favor of what we thought they were....when

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Let's break down these talking points - because that's all they are, talking points. As many have noted, we already have it.  We have free healthcare for every single human being in this countr

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Francisco 2.0

Francisco 2.0 32602

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Hmmm.

Now is this more a reflection of people overbuying a car or F250 or is it economy based?

https://www.tulsaworld.com/news/trending/record-million-americans-are-months-behind-on-car-payments-a/article_e9108449-39b9-504c-b3e7-3a55ad8e71a5.html

 

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A record 7 million Americans are 90 days or more behind on their auto loan payments, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported Tuesday, even more than during the wake of the financial crisis era.

Economists warn this is a red flag. Despite the strong economy and low unemployment rate, many Americans are struggling to pay their bills.

 

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The New York Fed said there were over a million more "troubled borrowers" at the end of 2018 than there were in 2010, when unemployment hit 10 percent and the auto loan delinquency rate peaked. Today, unemployment is 4 percent, and many more Americans have jobs, yet a significant number of people cannot pay their car loan.

Most of the people who are behind on their bills have low credit scores and are under age 30, suggesting young people are having a difficult time paying for their cars and their student loans at the same time

 

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Auto loans surged in the past several years as car sales kept growing year after year, hitting a record high in 2016 of 17.5 million vehicles sold in the United States. Overall, many borrowers have strong credit scores and repay their loans, but the auto industry has suffered from high defaults among so-called "subprime" borrowers with credit scores under 620 on an 800-point scale.

 

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The share of auto loan borrowers who were three months behind on their payments peaked at 5.3 percent in late 2010. The share is slightly lower now - 4.5 percent - because the total number of borrowers has risen so much in the past several years. Still, economists are concerned the rate has been climbing steadily since 2016 even though unemployment fell to its lowest level in almost half a century and the number of people impacted is far greater now.

 

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Homercles

Homercles 10206

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It's kind of central to American politics. The GOP used to be the party of the elites, now with Trump they are trying to become the party of the  now shrinking middle class. The reverse has happened with the Democrats, now they are becoming the party of the lowest and highest wealth classes of people. 
Where does everyone see the economy going in the next 5 or 10 years?
Any opinions on this video?
 


“Used to be the party of the elites”
Silly%2BGIF%2B00033.gif
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Captainant

Captainant 28565

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specifically with cars, everything I've read is that it's that dealerships are intentionally extending financing to folks who shouldn't be offered a financing plan. Very similar pattern to the housing crisis, except the asset of the loan loses value incredibly fast. Luckily, there's only about a trillion dollars in subprime auto loans as opposed to the nine trillion or so in subprime housing loans. And I'm fairly sure that we aren't selling CDO's of car loans lol

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elfenix

elfenix 34754

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37 minutes ago, Captainant said:

If brexit goes ugly, what's the impact on global markets? It wouldn't surprise me to see some cracks open up wide in European markets, which would ripple a very unstable global economy

 

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happyfunball

happyfunball 481

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On an aggregate basis, US consumer aren’t taking on debt like they have in previous economic booms. A recession won’t have as much of a cascading effect from a consumer standpoint as prior recessions.

With that said, companies have loaded up on debt so the Fed not raising rates have given corp a big gift.

Politics will drive (eg Trade deal) US economy but also other economies (eg China and Europe)

I’d expect slow growth with a technical recession in 2020 but that is it unless a big political event.

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sidis

sidis 10018

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On 11/8/2018 at 8:33 AM, Zavala said:

The GOP used to be the party of the elites, now with Trump they are trying to become the party of the  now shrinking middle class.

funniest thing i have read in a while...thanks.

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sidis

sidis 10018

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4 hours ago, Zavala said:

Oops, I meant TRUMP IS LITERALLY HITLER, sorry for the wrongthink. I appreciate your insight into the discussion.

it's interesting that you went quite so extreme in constructing your fallacious strawman.  that's about the extent of it though...

regardless, i remain amused by your original contention so thanks again.  

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21345

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3 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

GDP is a terrible measure of the economy and our next president should abandon it completely. Talk about measurements that impact the lives of real Americans, not Wall Street overlords.

This is wishful thinking...not that I blame you for wanting that.  But at best you'll get a reformed Wall Street where more of that money flows to the lower middle class.  No trickle down BS.  But the economic backbone of the entire country is built upon Wall Street.  So the overlords are here to stay, sadly. 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13552

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2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

This is wishful thinking...not that I blame you for wanting that.  But at best you'll get a reformed Wall Street where more of that money flows to the lower middle class.  No trickle down BS.  But the economic backbone of the entire country is built upon Wall Street.  So the overlords are here to stay, sadly. 

Let Wall Street continue to use it, but when politicians communicate with voters about the economy they need to either ignore it entirely or, far better, group it with more relevant measures to the lives of real Americans. (Hence, "talk about")

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21345

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13 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Let Wall Street continue to use it, but when politicians communicate with voters about the economy they need to either ignore it entirely or, far better, group it with more relevant measures to the lives of real Americans. (Hence, "talk about")

Yes - but there's millions of real Americans who are very tied to the stock market without owning any stock themselves.  Police Unions / Teachers etc have billions invested in Wall Street...they can ignore GDP, I'm fine with that.  But all this 'fuck wall street!' rhetoric should be replaced by how can we reform wall street.  From the ground up...properly educating people about wall street is the first step.  The lower and lower middle class has no clue how anything on Wall Street works and it all seems like BS that only the uber wealthy can win at.  Instead they gamble and buy lotto tickets.  The problem is not gonna be solved here but both parties fail woefully when it comes to educating the poor.  They just want to pander to them.  The Dems are like 'here's free shit!!!111!'  And the R's are like, 'have your guns and save babies!!!1!!11!'   Yes, that's oversimplifying but not by much - and that's just sad. 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13552

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21 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yes - but there's millions of real Americans who are very tied to the stock market without owning any stock themselves.  Police Unions / Teachers etc have billions invested in Wall Street...they can ignore GDP, I'm fine with that. 

lol it's like you're arguing yourself through a thought process, but you get there at the end.

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But all this 'fuck wall street!' rhetoric should be replaced by how can we reform wall street.  From the ground up...properly educating people about wall street is the first step.  The lower and lower middle class has no clue how anything on Wall Street works and it all seems like BS that only the uber wealthy can win at.  Instead they gamble and buy lotto tickets.  The problem is not gonna be solved here but both parties fail woefully when it comes to educating the poor.  They just want to pander to them.  The Dems are like 'here's free shit!!!111!'  And the R's are like, 'have your guns and save babies!!!1!!11!'   Yes, that's oversimplifying but not by much - and that's just sad. 

Jesus, man, wait for the revolution before blowing the head off the guy at the door. I didn't even say anything that was anti Wall Street unless "overlords" is super triggering.

Know how I irritatingly talk about how guys like you are just away from the Republicans in a very temporary manner? How all you ledge-sitters are just waiting for Trump to go away so you can go home? This is why. You're an emotional slave to your class interests and class justifications. Just brush vaguely up against the concept of questioning class dominance by saying politicians shouldn't speak the language of the speculator and you guys freak the fuck out.

But your both sides bullshit is just that, absolute bullshit. There are prominent Democrats who absolutely do want to reform Wall Street. In fact, it's the only party with anyone who wants to reform Wall Street. None of the 2020 candidates is saying to burn Wall Street to the ground, not even terrifying Bernie.

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21345

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46 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

lol it's like you're arguing yourself through a thought process, but you get there at the end.

Jesus, man, wait for the revolution before blowing the head off the guy at the door. I didn't even say anything that was anti Wall Street unless "overlords" is super triggering.

Know how I irritatingly talk about how guys like you are just away from the Republicans in a very temporary manner? How all you ledge-sitters are just waiting for Trump to go away so you can go home? This is why. You're an emotional slave to your class interests and class justifications. Just brush vaguely up against the concept of questioning class dominance by saying politicians shouldn't speak the language of the speculator and you guys freak the fuck out.

But your both sides bullshit is just that, absolute bullshit. There are prominent Democrats who absolutely do want to reform Wall Street. In fact, it's the only party with anyone who wants to reform Wall Street. None of the 2020 candidates is saying to burn Wall Street to the ground, not even terrifying Bernie.

I’ve voted for more Democrats in my life than R’s.  I don’t think either side makes sense for fiscally responsible voters to support.  

Hell, the best President in my lifetime is Bill Clinton.  Bring him back.  Sorry if you think I’m saying both sides.  I’m saying neither side. 

Also, social issues mean more to me than fiscal ones these days.  Much like the assholes in Hollywood, I say that after getting enough to never care about X% from investments.  

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Zavala

Zavala 1384

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On 3/28/2019 at 9:23 AM, bolverk said:

Where's the economy heading asks the OP? Looks like the answer is it's slowing and might be heading for recession.

 

huh

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/10/fed-if-it-keeps-hiking-rates-will-cause-a-recession-stephen-moore.html

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3003212/former-us-federal-reserve-chair-janet-yellen-says-us

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-seeing-slower-growth-and-softer-inflation-now-projects-no-rate-hikes-this-year-2019-03-20

Quote

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday signaled it’s almost done raising interest rates, saying the economy is in a “good place” and that inflation poses little threat.

Adopting a very dovish tone, the central bank’s new “dot plot” showed no increases in interest rates this year and only one in 2020, down from a total of four rate hikes in the Fed’s last forecast in December.

The Fed is “doubling down” on the dovish position first adopted in January, said Brian Bethune, an adjunct professor of economics at Tufts University.

Adding to the easy policy stance, senior Fed officials also announced they will begin to taper the runoff of the $4 trillion balance sheet in May and end it in September. That is a much quicker ending of “quantitative tightening” than anyone thought at year end. The reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet has also been viewed as a form of tightening that could weigh on the economy.

 

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babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2731

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I’ve voted for more Democrats in my life than R’s.  I don’t think either side makes sense for fiscally responsible voters to support.  
Hell, the best President in my lifetime is Bill Clinton.  Bring him back.  Sorry if you think I’m saying both sides.  I’m saying neither side. 
Also, social issues mean more to me than fiscal ones these days.  Much like the assholes in Hollywood, I say that after getting enough to never care about X% from investments.  


Pop always said we weren’t poor enough or rich enough to be democrats
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happyfunball

happyfunball 481

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US retail sales recorded their biggest jump in 18 months in March, driven by sales of motor vehicles, petrol and clothing, which signalled consumers continue to support the economy.

Headline retail sales rose 1.6 per cent month-on-month in March, the Commerce Department said on Thursday — the biggest monthly increase since September 2017. That compared with expectations for a 0.9 per cent increase, according to a Thomson Reuters poll and followed a 0.2 per cent slide the previous month.

So-called control retail sales, which strip out volatile items like food, petrol and building materials among others, climbed 1 per cent, against expectations for a 0.4 per cent increase.

The report showed a 3.1 per cent increase in sales at motor vehicles and part dealers and a 3.5 per cent increase in sales at gasoline stations. Clothing and accessories store sales were up 2 per cent.

The rebound in consumer spending offers signs of encouragement on the health of the US economy. First-quarter growth figures are due next week and economists expect GDP grew 1.8 per cent.

https://www.ft.com/content/baec0d4e-61d3-11e9-b285-3acd5d43599e

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NBMisha

NBMisha 224

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Good numbers.  But even the WSJ showed a chart yesterday.  Since 1980, GDP is up about 150%.  For the top 10%, its about 200%.  For the remaining 90%, up about 40%, over almost 40 years.  This is for the US.

With these kinds of distributional effects it is not surprising to hear claims that the system is failing US society as a whole.  

Yes, capitalism is the system to provide the most prosperity overall for the most people.  But the version we have know is open to legitimate critique.

 

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horncyclist

horncyclist 1391

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It's going to be awesome when Trumpers go from "greatest economy evar!" cause of our dear leader in describing continuation of Obama-era trends to somehow blaming Obama for the recession. 

$2 trillion deficits here we come. Glad we got those tax cuts in. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106929

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10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Gird your loins

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-creates-just-75000-jobs-in-may-and-wage-growth-slows-in-warning-sign-for-economy-2019-06-07

Other than literally everyone other than Team Trump seeing this coming.....seriously.  They injected fuel directly into the carburetor a few times, made the engine rev.  Nifty.  And meaningless.  We are where we are in the economic cycle.  The smart move is to prep for it, and work on the long-term.  Instead, we're eating our seed stock just to feed the ego of a man who has to be able to shout "see how much food I just provided you!"

I've never given a president much blame or credit for overall economic performance, and I'm not going to start now.  With respect to the economy, the executive can help with some broad steering, but his most important role is when an economic crisis hits.  W and Obama were called upon to perform and react quickly in the 2008-2009 crisis.  And they did.  I fear that we're going to see the same need for reaction from this admin in the next 12-18 months.  And I don't think they can.  We'll see.

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tantric superman

tantric superman 4668

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On 11/8/2018 at 8:33 AM, Zavala said:

The GOP used to be the party of the elites, now with Trump they are trying to become the party of the  now shrinking middle class. The reverse has happened with the Democrats, now they are becoming the party of the lowest and highest wealth classes of people. 

The problem with your thread is that this is bullshit.

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