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Zavala

By Zavala
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elfenix
elfenix

*thinks the US should be running surplusses generally* *watches the US run a surplus for the first time in his lifetime* *watches the republicans pass not just one but two tax cuts which put us on the

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

This. And as for Onboard's preferred economic approach -- I generally share that.  But here's what I realized about the GOP -- not only are they NOT in favor of what we thought they were....when

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Let's break down these talking points - because that's all they are, talking points. As many have noted, we already have it.  We have free healthcare for every single human being in this countr

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13512

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I know consumers love low interest but we’ve relied too much low interest propping up asset prices. Now the govt will struggle to raise them without crushing assets. We’ve also effectively eliminated many safe savings options for people that do not want to put their money in riskier investments.

And a drive for everyone to put their money in the markets to earn any type of return, it will make the more vulnerable more susceptible to stock crashes. Retired people will either need to withdraw less of their money each year or risk more in the market than they should. Then when it crashes, they’re left to gamble on their future but most won’t have the knowledge of how to react. Sell at the bottom to prevent more losses.

 

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bernorange

bernorange 8361

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... The world is going to change in the next five years in shocking ways in relation to the three big issues we have been talking about.

First, there’s a debt-money cycle — what is the value of money? What will happen to the debt? Will the dollar retain its value? The finances of this — who is going to pay for it? How? What will work? That’s number one.

Second, the wealth, opportunity and values gaps will have to be dealt with. Are we going to be at each other’s throats in a way that is harmful or are we going to be working together even if things get worse?

Third is the rising of a great power in China to challenge the existing power of the United States. Will this be well handled?

... The last time those three things existed as they do now was the 1930 to 1945 period. That’s the last time you had zero interest rates and money printing. That’s the last time you had the wealth and political gaps as large as they are today, and it was the last time you had rising powers challenging the existing world order. This and many analogous times before it help to give us perspective.

More:  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/billionaire-investor-ray-dalio-on-capitalisms-crisis-the-world-is-going-to-change-in-shocking-ways-in-the-next-five-years-2020-09-17

Ray Dalio still beating his drum.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

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On 2/7/2020 at 5:48 AM, bernorange said:

When Trump was elected, there were some people who thought he was serious when he said he was going to "drain the swamp".  Some thought he was serious about considering a gold standard based upon some comments he made years ago.

My opinion?  It's all bullshit.  Trump just wants loyalists who will do as he asks.

The current Fed chair, Jerome Powell, was Trump's first appointee to the Fed board.  Powell was banker/swamp approved and he hasn't toed the line for Trump at all times.  I think that pissed Trump off and he's not going to make the same mistake again.

. . .  Shelton is grounded in monetary theories.  She isn't a lightweight, "yes man" political nomination.  She also isn't a conventional choice from the banking cabal.  Her history of published works indicate she leans more towards the Austrian school of thought on monetary policy, but most recent statements/news indicates she is pliable to Trump's wishes.  Is it a ploy to garner favor from the President to get the appointment or indicative of a real shift in her thoughts on monetary policy?  I don't know.  I'm hopeful that if she is approved by the Senate, she can bring an important viewpoint to their (The Fed's) table.

 

She's back - it appears the Senate will try to push Shelton through. I am parking this paper by Shelton on Gold and Government in case she becomes a political fire starter. https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/cato-journal/2012/7/v32n2-9.pdf

There are at least three schools of thought in Fed Speak Circles - Status Quo (dominant - supply side - make sure the wealthy are saved first since they "pay for" the entire system); Gold Standard (Shelton would be the first); MMT (up and comer with a bullet - zero Fed representation).

 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105139

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4 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

Maybe his children's children can make a profit, or in 30 years when our gen become nostalgic for them.

I remember those dumb fucking things.  My wife was shopping one day, and saw a goldfish one that she thought would look cute in our guest bath (was decorated in a sea life theme, we ran with the existing pink and blue color scheme).  She asked the sales clerk how much it was, as it was behind the counter.  He told her something like $75, and she asked WHAT?  The guy got all huffy -  "it's been discontinued, it's a very sought after collectible."  She said "it's a fucking stuffed goldfish toy" and left.  And promptly told me the absurdity when she got home.

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workswithseed

workswithseed 2106

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

I remember those dumb fucking things.  My wife was shopping one day, and saw a goldfish one that she thought would look cute in our guest bath (was decorated in a sea life theme, we ran with the existing pink and blue color scheme).  She asked the sales clerk how much it was, as it was behind the counter.  He told her something like $75, and she asked WHAT?  The guy got all huffy -  "it's been discontinued, it's a very sought after collectible."  She said "it's a fucking stuffed goldfish toy" and left.  And promptly told me the absurdity when she got home.

Yeah, I remember getting them as a 5 year old in my mcdonald's bag. My gf has a few, and we looked up how much they were going for, and 2 were over $200.

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swraith

swraith 346

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8 hours ago, bernorange said:

Why?  And what does America need today?

I read a decent portion of that Cato paper.  Quoting Austrian economists who say the government cannot be trusted with responsibility for our currency/money.  It seems very fantasy land type talk in today's political environment.  The Federal Reserve's authority/power comes from the U.S. government.  Without the U.S. government, the Federal Reserve ceases to function/exist.  The bond proposal in the Cato paper is a non-starter.  Congress is not going to support that kind of bond.  Further, the idea that China would cede sovereignty over its own currency to the market is naive.  

 

I don't see a viable path back to sustainable economic theory for the U.S.  There is no cultural willpower to taken on the burden of that kind of austerity.  Further, there is no support globally for that kind of action either.  So the U.S. is on the path it is own....take any action possible to "kick the can down the road" until it can't be kicked any longer and deal with a massive shakeup at that point.  I have no idea when that might be.  I'm fairly gloomy about overall asset valuations given real interest rates....but advocating for a return to the Gold Standard....its not functional conversation today.  

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

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25 minutes ago, swraith said:

There is no cultural willpower to taken on the burden of that kind of austerity. 

The people were placed into austerity in the mid-70's and policymakers have not seen any reason to alter policy (see the lack of a safety net and the crumbling infrastructure so common in this nation). 

Bern and others can correct me, but gold standard economists are not as worried about outcome as they are about the concept of "sound money."  They argue against the orthodoxy of socialism for the wealthy and subscribe to austerity for all, under the guise of survival of the fittest. 

MMT Economists, other the other hand, reject austerity for the masses and point to the wealthy maintaining and growing their share of wealth through MMT type windows and backstops for their investments. MMT Economists point out the wealthy have thrived under Fed and Fiscal policy that socializes risks taken by the wealthy. MMT asks for the same socialization of risk for more than just the wealthy and believe the economy will expand if ordinary Americans are given the same opportunities as the wealthy (trickle-up - the natural flow of markets).

The MMT spending for the wealthy has not created inflation (which blows the Pete Peterson cult of deficit scaremongering out of the water). The Phillips Curve (nutshell: government spending = inflation) is in peril.

And the world is wondering why the hell American government is continuing with austerity for the masses, since it makes zero sense in an economy with deflationary headwinds. Our answer? We are dumb americans who do not understand economics or the world and secretly love masochism to punish anyone striving to make the world a  better place. Life is a bitch until you die goes the mantra - never believing there might be a better way for all. 

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elfenix

elfenix 34240

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On 9/9/2020 at 1:51 PM, troph said:

Yeah failure to understand the entire developed world was destroyed except for the US is the foundation of American growth from 1950-1970, at least.

i've pointed this out before, but foreign trade just wasn't that big a part of the US post-war economy.  we largely bootstrapped it by massive government funding of the burbs and including a much larger portion of the population in the economy (although women and minorities still aren't fully integrated into the economy, in the 50s they were much better integrated than in the 30s). 

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troph

troph 24798

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i've pointed this out before, but foreign trade just wasn't that big a part of the US post-war economy.  we largely bootstrapped it by massive government funding of the burbs and including a much larger portion of the population in the economy (although women and minorities still aren't fully integrated into the economy, in the 50s they were much better integrated than in the 30s). 

There really wasn’t much of a choice either. Every major industrial country was crippled. By the 1970s the US had significant competition (and a major recession and economic crisis) and in the 1980s Japan was reaching its peak. So of course the US had to bootstrap, but that’s not the question the question is why? I contend the destruction of the entire industrialized world but the US.
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elfenix

elfenix 34240

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1 hour ago, troph said:


There really wasn’t much of a choice either. Every major industrial country was crippled. By the 1970s the US had significant competition (and a major recession and economic crisis) and in the 1980s Japan was reaching its peak. So of course the US had to bootstrap, but that’s not the question the question is why? I contend the destruction of the entire industrialized world but the US.

which isn't a precondition to bootstrapping the suburbs.

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troph

troph 24798

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Makes it easier to grow at rates we might not ever see again when industry from toasters to cars to toys to planes to appliances to really anything else was made in America. Add in the post war baby boom and the prosperity of peace and it was a boom waiting to happen with zero global competition.

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Section4Row36Seat8

Section4Row36Seat8 76

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On 11/13/2020 at 8:17 PM, washparkhorn said:

image.thumb.png.85b73cd4737442abc3e91b7394f16218.png

This isn't entirely true either because there would most likely be a second tier system where rich people could pay to gain medical care quickly and that would be another set of cost, though it could easy the stress on a single payer system.  I have no idea how much the second tier system would cost, I guess it depends on how much rich people hate waiting.  If medicare for all costs $32 trillions I'd wager you could milk $10-17 trillion out of a private pay system.  

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bernorange

bernorange 8361

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Judy Shelton's controversial nomination to the Federal Reserve suffered a possibly fatal blow Tuesday in a key procedural vote in the Senate.

The upper chamber voted 50-47 against a move that would have advanced the nomination by limiting debate, typically a death knell because the opposition simply could block the vote from ever coming to the full floor.

The only avenue for Shelton to get through would be if Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell can get at least 50 votes together. Following the vote, McConnell moved to preserve his right to bring Shelton's name up again for consideration.

In case of a 50-50 split, Vice President Mike Pence would be called on to break the tie.

An effort to reconsider would be complicated by the Republicans losing a seat in the Senate when Arizona Democrat Mark Kelly takes Martha McSally's place after the Thanksgiving holiday. That would mean a Shelton vote likely would have to take place by next week.
...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/17/shelton-fed-nomination-fails-key-senate-procedure-vote-likely-ending-her-chances.html

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bernorange

bernorange 8361

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...
Vaccine rollout and loose monetary policy will weigh on the U.S. dollar next year, with the currency at risk of falling 20%, Citi said in a note this week.

"When viable, widely distributed vaccines hit the market, we believe that this will catalyze the next leg lower in the structural USD downtrend we expect," Citi wrote. "Given this set-up, there is the potential for the dollar's losses to be front-loaded, with the USD potentially falling by as much as 20% in 2021."
...

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-11-17/U-S-dollar-to-plunge-20-in-2021-on-vaccine-rollout-loose-monetary-policy-says-Citi.html

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elfenix

elfenix 34240

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900,000 new jobless claims last week as Trump completes office with the worst record since the great depression


Jobless claims remained at historic highs last week, as Biden inherits the worst job market of any modern president
By Eli Rosenberg

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/01/21/900000-filed-jobless-claims-last-week-historically-high-level-biden-inherits-worst-job-market-any-modern-president/

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23469

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5 hours ago, elfenix said:

900,000 new jobless claims last week as Trump completes office with the worst record since the great depression


Jobless claims remained at historic highs last week, as Biden inherits the worst job market of any modern president
By Eli Rosenberg

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/01/21/900000-filed-jobless-claims-last-week-historically-high-level-biden-inherits-worst-job-market-any-modern-president/
 

On the bright side, they get to move to the front of the queue for APH’s vax prioritization. 

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