Economy Thread

[David Dennison 18,608]

10 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Legitimate question - how so? I don't really see it.

Some taxes on savings are higher than others.

 

Edited August 16, 2019 by David Dennison

[BradInATX 9,208]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

Some taxes on savings are higher than others.

 

Good thing our millennial friends don't have any!

[Judge Roybeanbag 11,796]

8 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Legitimate question - how so? I don't really see it.

Maybe “punished” was the wrong term.  Disincentivized, maybe.   Artificially holding interest rates down, for example, forcing people to either risk investing their money in the market or enjoy .5 % earnings on their “safe” cash.  And I would not go into those of us who  scratched and lived responsibly, paying off debts early and saving only to see our free-spending counterparts get bailed out of their foreclosures and student loans during the last crash.  

Edited August 16, 2019 by Judge Roybeanbag

[Bozo_Casanova 26,232]

10 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Legitimate question - how so? I don't really see it.

Short answer in one picture:

My comments: except for half the last decade, you lost money by putting it in "savings", which means that if your returns from the stock market were in the 10% range over the last couple decades, your interest rate on cash savings over that time was in the 3% range, and less than 2% for the last 10 years. That's less than the rate of inflationm, so the money lost buying power in the bank.  And what little return was generated by the savings was taxed as ordinary income, which  would have been about double the rate of any long term capital gains from cashed out investments, IF the investment is cashed out. That's not the case with cash interest payments, which are taxed when paid (as they should be). 
, 
As youcan see, that's a huge monetary policy shift. Since the early 60's, it was almost always a good idea to have money in the bank which generated solid if unspectacular growth that beat inflation except in periods of shock and crisis. From 2001-present  policy shifted toward stimulus, which in this case is directing liquidity away from personal savings and community business lending towards propping up and sustaining growth in the the capital markets and real estate. 

I could go into a lot more detail here, but that's the sketch. 

Edited August 16, 2019 by Bozo_Casanova

[Brisketexan 104,465]

8 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Short answer in one picture:

My comments: except for half the last decade, you lost money by putting it in "savings", which means that if your returns from the stock market were in the 10% range over the last couple decades, your interest rate on cash savings over that time was in the 3% range, and less than 2% for the last 10 years. That's less than the rate of inflationm, so the money lost buying power in the bank.  And what little return was generated by the savings was taxed as ordinary income, which  would have been about double the rate of any long term capital gains from cashed out investments, IF the investment is cashed out. That's not the case with cash interest payments, which are taxed when paid (as they should be). 
, 
As youcan see, that's a huge monetary policy shift. Since the early 60's, it was almost always a good idea to have money in the bank which generated solid if unspectacular growth that beat inflation except in periods of shock and crisis. From 2001-present  policy shifted toward stimulus, which in this case is directing liquidity away from personal savings and community business lending towards propping up and sustaining growth in the the capital markets and real estate. 

I could go into a lot more detail here, but that's the sketch. 

But -- and this is a strong counterpoint -- if I bury cash in mason jars in my backyard, the gubmint can't git it.

Point for Brisket.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,232]

9 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Good thing our millennial friends don't have any!

As you can see in my post above, why would they?

[Pescado_Rojo 19,327]

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

But -- and this is a strong counterpoint -- if I bury cash in mason jars in my backyard, the gubmint can't git it.

Point for Brisket.

The trick is you want to bury it near, but not in the same place as your Jim Baker buckets of patriot slop...that way you can find it, but if someone finds one you don't lose both. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26,232]

I'm thinking about creating a new crypto called EndTimesCoin, or ETC, available ONLY as durable, 3D printed physical coin, each coin embedded with a splinter of the One True Cross.  It's for people left behind after the rapture. 

Edited August 16, 2019 by Bozo_Casanova

[Brisketexan 104,465]

4 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

The trick is you want to bury it near, but not in the same place as your Jim Baker buckets of patriot slop...that way you can find it, but if someone finds one you don't lose both. 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11,796]

24 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Short answer in one picture:

My comments: except for half the last decade, you lost money by putting it in "savings", which means that if your returns from the stock market were in the 10% range over the last couple decades, your interest rate on cash savings over that time was in the 3% range, and less than 2% for the last 10 years. That's less than the rate of inflationm, so the money lost buying power in the bank.  And what little return was generated by the savings was taxed as ordinary income, which  would have been about double the rate of any long term capital gains from cashed out investments, IF the investment is cashed out. That's not the case with cash interest payments, which are taxed when paid (as they should be). 
, 
As youcan see, that's a huge monetary policy shift. Since the early 60's, it was almost always a good idea to have money in the bank which generated solid if unspectacular growth that beat inflation except in periods of shock and crisis. From 2001-present  policy shifted toward stimulus, which in this case is directing liquidity away from personal savings and community business lending towards propping up and sustaining growth in the the capital markets and real estate. 

I could go into a lot more detail here, but that's the sketch. 

To amplify what Bozo said.

[F250 28,659]

12 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I'm thinking about creating a new crypto called EndTimesCoin, or ETC, available ONLY as durable, 3D printed physical coin, each coin embedded with a splinter of the One True Cross.  It's for people left behind after the rapture. 

Charge an extra $99.99 for rapture insurance or $149.99 that includes pet insurance and you've got a winning product. A complimentary napkin soaked in the blood of Franklin Graham would be a nice touch.

 

[zork 629]

Looks like the Fed is changing directions according to this:

QE ramping down in 2015, steady till late 2017, then yuge QT till this last month.  QE starting again?  The source for this graph was a blog that was reblogged on ZeroHedge, so there is that.

https://econimica.blogspot.com/2019/08/for-second-week-in-row-fed-buys.html

Quote

Summary

• After 250 weeks without a purchase of Treasuries (since Oct. 2014), for the second week in a row, the Federal Reserve bought Treasuries.

• The $14 billion in purchasing is in stark contrast to zero purchases since Quantitative Easing ended and selling during Quantitative Tightening.

• When the Fed sells Treasuries, asset prices struggle, but when the Fed buys Treasuries, asset prices have surged.

Another cool graph for perspective:

[EuroHorn 3,204]

Graphs look like Maryland offensive plays through our defense last year 

[zork 629]

meanwhile in the rest of the world wrt corporate yield rates:(holy shit)

http://www.tracy-alloway.com/

 

Edited September 6, 2019 by zork

[Zavala 1,384]

https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN1YA1K6

Canada loses surprise 71,200 jobs in November, unemployment rate jumps to 5.9%

 

US

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/06/us-nonfarm-payrolls-november-2019.html

Jobs growth soars in November as payrolls surge by 266,000

[Incredulity 11,532]

4 minutes ago, Zavala said:

https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN1YA1K6

Canada loses surprise 71,200 jobs in November, unemployment rate jumps to 5.9%

 

US

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/06/us-nonfarm-payrolls-november-2019.html

Jobs growth soars in November as payrolls surge by 266,000

Yeah, but Trudeau laughed at Trump.

Advantage blackface.

[BradInATX 9,208]

Europe has been growing their GDP at the same rate as the USA since 2016. Prior to that, we dominated them for eight years.

From 2000-2008, Europe made up a ton of ground in GDP, after being completely owned from 1992-2000.

Republicans suck balls at the economy. This is fact. Inform yourselves, kiddos: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?end=2018&locations=US-XC&start=1992

Edited December 6, 2019 by BradInATX

[BradInATX 9,208]

14 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Yeah, but Trudeau laughed at Trump.

Advantage blackface.

The person who said the above is a guy who runs around this board telling anyone who will listen that he's a super-intellectual Gary Johnson voter and not a Trump supporter.

Just thought I'd point that out.

Edited December 6, 2019 by BradInATX

[Incredulity 11,532]

5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

The person who said the above is a guy who runs around this board telling anyone who will listen that he's a super-intellectual Gary Johnson voter and not a Trump supporter.

Just thought I'd point that out.

Obsession intensifies.

 

Stop humping my leg. Weirdo.

[zork 629]

 

[Captainant 27,311]

I still don't understand why everyone's dick is all hard for more jobs that are paying absolute shit. 3.1% wage growth is still a real wage increase of less than one percent after you account for inflation. Idk if you've looked around, but things aren't really doing any better despite the much touted DJIA and jobs report numbers. 

[Biff Tannen 45,477]

27 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I still don't understand why everyone's dick is all hard for more jobs that are paying absolute shit. 3.1% wage growth is still a real wage increase of less than one percent after you account for inflation. Idk if you've looked around, but things aren't really doing any better despite the much touted DJIA and jobs report numbers. 

Because they think it justifies their support for a complete buffoon with authoritarian goals who has sold our country up the river, destroyed alliances, destroyed our institutions, put children in cages, and lies every day about every conceivable thing. 

[bernorange 8,346]

I saw this this morning (emphasis mine):

Quote

The repo market is ‘broken’ and Fed injections are not a lasting solution, market pros warn

... Paresh Upadhyaya, director of U.S. currency strategy at Amundi Pioneer.

But Upadhyaya also sees potential knock-on effects from the Fed’s stabilization efforts, including short term yields being pressured lower and investors taking advantage of the liquidity to rotate to riskier assets, as the central bank’s share of the T-bill market expands to an estimated 20% of the market by mid-2020 from 1% currently.

“We’re very much on track for that,” he said.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/guid/5AE6EE7A-1536-11EA-8C58-78FDC05761AF

/usccheerleader.gif

No worries though.  It looks like Jamie Dimon is going to get his way.  They are working on the groundwork to justify changing the rules for him.

Quote

The repo turmoil that put traders on edge in September has prompted a full scale review by regulators, who identified disruptions to short-term funding markets as a potential risk to the U.S. financial system.

The Financial Stability Oversight Council is calling for federal agencies to collect data and scrutinize cleared repurchase transactions to determine what prompted rates to spike three months ago, according to Treasury Department officials. The group, led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, highlighted the examination in its annual report released Wednesday.
...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-04/repo-turmoil-prompts-fsoc-to-open-review-into-market-risks?srnd=fixed-income

I see BC in here mocking folks for worrying about the future. smh...

Quote

Wealthy people around the globe are hunkering down for a potentially turbulent 2020, according to UBS Global Wealth Management.

A majority of rich investors expect a significant drop in markets before the end of next year, and 25% of their average assets are currently in cash, according to a survey of more than 3,400 global respondents. ...

Nearly four-fifths of respondents say volatility is likely to increase, and 55% think there will be a significant market sell-off before the end of 2020, according to the report which was conducted between August and October and polled those with at least $1 million in investable assets. Sixty percent are considering increasing their cash levels further, ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-12/world-s-rich-readying-for-major-stock-sell-off-ubs-wealth-says

Ray Dalio is still sounding warning bells.  If anything, he's upped his rhetoric.

Quote

... Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones - joined Yahoo Finance for the 2nd annual Greenwich Investment Forum earlier this month. ... PTJ and Dalio focused their "Fireside Chat" on the flaws of Fed policy, the dangers of America's ballooning budget deficit, and the steps that must be take to "stop us from killing each other" in a violent revolution, as Dalio warned.
...

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dalio-ptj-warn-we-will-kill-each-other-if-our-broken-economic-system-isnt-fixed

Yeah, that's a ZH link.  If that offends you, you can watch the YouTube video for yourself.

Edited December 7, 2019 by bernorange

[zork 629]

24 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Because they think it justifies their support for a complete buffoon with authoritarian goals who has sold our country up the river, destroyed alliances, destroyed our institutions, put children in cages, and lies every day about every conceivable thing. 

 

[JimmyJames 12,271]

That trump hasn’t completely fucked over the economy he inherited from that guy from Kenya, tan suit Obama, yet, is basically the only talking point the trolls have left. Just give trump time though. He’ll get er’ done. Easy to win tariff wars in da house! No more benefits for you! 

Hey ya gotta come up with something. Amiright?

[Captainant 27,311]

43 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

That trump hasn’t completely fucked over the economy he inherited from that guy from Kenya, tan suit Obama, yet, is basically the only talking point the trolls have left. Just give trump time though. He’ll get er’ done. Easy to win tariff wars in da house! No more benefits for you! 

Hey ya gotta come up with something. Amiright?

Well obviously it will be the fault of the democrats when the economy takes a turn. Trump is only responsible for good things, remember?

[Biff Tannen 45,477]

8 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Well obviously it will be the fault of the democrats when the economy takes a turn. Trump is only responsible for good things, remember?

Mark that

[JimmyJames 12,271]

40 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Well obviously it will be the fault of the democrats when the economy takes a turn. Trump is only responsible for good things, remember?

Yep, and the sheep will believe that too. It’ll be another shit sandwich, and we’ll all have to take a bite.

[Cacti 191]

2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Because they think it justifies their support for a complete buffoon with authoritarian goals who has sold our country up the river, destroyed alliances, destroyed our institutions, put children in cages, and lies every day about every conceivable thing. 

I won’t argue with your characterization of Trump, but exactly what alliances have been destroyed?

[BradInATX 9,208]

I won’t argue with your characterization of Trump, but exactly what alliances have been destroyed?

The Kurds, for one.  

Europe and the NATO countries are on the brink. They're waiting to see if we're stupid enough to elect Trump again or if it was just a temporary moment of insanity. Even in a best case scenario, the world's trust in us has been weakened.

Although we have strengthened our ties with Russia, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia. Woo #MAGA.

 

 

 

[washparkhorn 9,931]

If Goldman Sachs is making money off of MMT theory, so should the USG and you. It’s a a different world than it was in the wheezy 80’s. 

[Cacti 191]

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

The Kurds, for one.  

Europe and the NATO countries are on the brink.

We used the Kurds and they used us. If we need them again, they’ll be happy to enter yet another alliance with us, in exchange for funding and arms, of course.

As for our NATO relations, as long as Europeans depend on us as NATO’s enforcers, then sure, there is going to be a strain. And that strain goes all the way back to Eisenhower when he opposed providing a permanent stationing of troops in Europe because it would “discourage the necessary military strength Western European countries should provide themselves.”  

Nearly every President since then has raised concerns about NATO’s overdependence on America, although none can touch Trump’s heavy-handed approach.

And now, there is a second, relatively new boiling point: trade. The E.U. enjoys a 100 billion dollar trade imbalance with the U.S., and it shows no signs of significantly improving.

Those two factors will someday undercut and perhaps cause us to sever some European alliances, but it won’t happen because of Trump and it certainly won’t happen while he is President.

BTW, Europe will never initiate ‘breaking up with the U.S.’—we’re their golden goose.

[Biff Tannen 45,477]

Our standing in the world isn't based purely on might.  What we have tried to set up since WW2 is an alliance of democratic countries with the overarching goal of spreading an ideal of democracy throughout the world because we have determined that democracy is the best way for societies to thrive.  Whenever jackasses like our current president and his sycophants get in charge, shit goes south.  This is all just history repeating.  The goal and hope is to not let it repeat and learn from our past.  We are backsliding horribly right now.

[Mapache 1,117]

 

[Anastasis 23,375]

5 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Our standing in the world isn't based purely on might.  What we have tried to set up since WW2 is an alliance of democratic countries with the overarching goal of spreading an ideal of democracy throughout the world because we have determined that democracy is the best way for societies to thrive.  

Nice fantasy. 

[Incredulity 11,532]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

Nice fantasy. 

A Democrat nation building fantasy.

Stick around long enough an you’ll see it all.

[David Dennison 18,608]

1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

A Democrat nation building fantasy.

Stick around long enough an you’ll see it all.

Supported by every Republican president until DOTARD.

[BradInATX 9,208]

We used the Kurds and they used us. If we need them again, they’ll be happy to enter yet another alliance with us, in exchange for funding and arms, of course.
As for our NATO relations, as long as Europeans depend on us as NATO’s enforcers, then sure, there is going to be a strain. And that strain goes all the way back to Eisenhower when he opposed providing a permanent stationing of troops in Europe because it would “discourage the necessary military strength Western European countries should provide themselves.”  
Nearly every President since then has raised concerns about NATO’s overdependence on America, although none can touch Trump’s heavy-handed approach.
And now, there is a second, relatively new boiling point: trade. The E.U. enjoys a 100 billion dollar trade imbalance with the U.S., and it shows no signs of significantly improving.
Those two factors will someday undercut and perhaps cause us to sever some European alliances, but it won’t happen because of Trump and it certainly won’t happen while he is President.
BTW, Europe will never initiate ‘breaking up with the U.S.’—we’re their golden goose.

This is all nice but projecting our might means our Allies believe we will have their backs when called upon. Between Trump shitting all over NATO and abandoning the kurds, we are losing that trust. The only way to stop the slow drift apart from our allies is to convince them this was a brief period of idiocy.

[BradInATX 9,208]

I wonder if any Republican will ever respond to the fact that Democrats run up the score on Europe and the rest of the world every time, then the Republicans spend their presidencies blowing said leads until another Democrat comes in and fixes it.

[Incredulity 11,532]

1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

Supported by every Republican president until DOTARD.

Thats

the

Point.

[David Dennison 18,608]

Republican presidents were on board from the very beginning. That's the point. Republican isolationism died on this day in 1941.

Stick around long enough to see it all? 

Uh huh.

Edited December 7, 2019 by David Dennison

[Biff Tannen 45,477]

5 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Nice fantasy. 

I'm one of the most cynical people I know, but even I know that this is one of our loftier ideals.  Yes, we also have our goal of holding on to power, but they don't have to be mutually exclusive.  People like you are the reason we are held back from progress.  Why don't you go put on your tinfoil hat and be scared of FBI surveillance you fucking pussy.

[bolverk 29,360]

5 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Nice fantasy. 

The EU & NATO say 'hi'. It's too bad Trump doesn't understand the basics of friendship.

[Anastasis 23,375]

9 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I'm one of the most cynical people I know, but even I know that this is one of our loftier ideals.  Yes, we also have our goal of holding on to power, but they don't have to be mutually exclusive.  People like you are the reason we are held back from progress.  Why don't you go put on your tinfoil hat and be scared of FBI surveillance you fucking pussy.

Lol. 
 

11 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

because we have determined that democracy is the best way for societies to thrive.

This is the particularly fantastical part. We have determined that the world order is best effected through American economic and military hegemony. To the extent that those are threatened “we” give not one shit about democracy or self determination. We gladly topple democratically elected governments when it suits. We spread poison throughout the world, arming tyrants and dictators, warming ourselves at night with trite reflections about our loftier ideals. It is what it is. We should at least be honest with ourselves about it.  

[David Dennison 18,608]

3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Lol. 
 

This is the particularly fantastical part. We have determined that the world order is best effected through American economic and military hegemony. To the extent that those are threatened “we” give not one shit about democracy or self determination. We gladly topple democratically elected governments when it suits. We spread poison throughout the world, arming tyrants and dictators, warming ourselves at night with trite reflections about our loftier ideals. It is what it is. We should at least be honest with ourselves about it.  

What are you doing about it?

EDIT: I'd like to point out that I don't disagree with your take. 

Edited December 7, 2019 by David Dennison

[Chrispy_ 105]

Too often people confuse an alliance with friendship. It’s difficult to be someone’s friend when you’re paying them for protection. 

[David Dennison 18,608]

3 minutes ago, Chrispy_ said:

Too often people confuse an alliance with friendship. It’s difficult to be someone’s friend when you’re paying them for protection. 

Sounds an awful lot like a protection racket.

[bolverk 29,360]

13 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Lol. 
 

This is the particularly fantastical part. We have determined that the world order is best effected through American economic and military hegemony. To the extent that those are threatened “we” give not one shit about democracy or self determination. We gladly topple democratically elected governments when it suits. We spread poison throughout the world, arming tyrants and dictators, warming ourselves at night with trite reflections about our loftier ideals. It is what it is. We should at least be honest with ourselves about it.  

Because we're not perfect, we should instead hold dear the cold embrace of the Urals, comrade. Therefore, my close, personal, French & German friends' feelings toward me & my country shouldn't count.

[Anastasis 23,375]

16 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Because we're not perfect, we should instead hold dear the cold embrace of the Urals, comrade. Therefore, my close, personal, French & German friends' feelings toward me & my country shouldn't count.

It doesn’t have to be complicated. Maybe just a little less sticking our dick in other people’s mashed potatoes, and a few less cluster bombs to dictators so they don’t end up getting dropped on a school bus full of brown kids. 

[Chrispy_ 105]

29 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Sounds an awful lot like a protection racket.

The world is a prison yard and we’re the shot caller. At least for now. So pay up bitches.