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2020 Presidential Election

Parliament

By Parliament
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AtticusFinch

AtticusFinch 155

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Parliament said:

Now that mid-terms (TOTALLY overrated, btw) are done, we can move to the main event; screaming, kicking, biting, etc over the election of our next President.

Will President Trump even by President in November of 2020?

Who will enter the primary on the Democrat side?

Will Hillary's Parkinsons be too far advanced for her to make a run?

Will Cory Booker be anointed as "The One" long before primary voting?

Will a centrist Democrat get any traction.

Fix some popcorn, sharpen your claws, and drop a roll of dimes in your pocket.  GAME ON!!!!

I imagine Trump will be President but I'm not convinced he will run.  I doubt anyone would oppose him for a nomination.  Beto/Biden 2020

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gmr548

gmr548 16,504

Posted
Posted
Does Flake, not be a Flake, and enter the Republican primaries? Or anyone else?

I don't think Trump will be challenged in the primary. The never Trump faction is clearly a minority in the GOP. Anyone who would want to knows they stand no chance. I guess I could see a bunch of Ds/Independents voting against him in the primary where possible but that isn't likely to move the needle.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23,356

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

don't think Trump will be challenged in the primary. The never Trump faction is clearly a minority in the GOP. Anyone who would want to knows they stand no chance.

I don’t think someone challenging Trump would be about winning the nomination.  It would be about retaking the party post-Trump and setting up a legitimate 2024 run. 

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12,271

Posted
Posted

All the dems need to do to win back the White House is get the Midwest Obama/trump voters back in the fold. If that happens even fucked up Florida don’t make a shit. Can even afford to lose Ohio. 

Unfortunately I don’t think Kamala Harris is gonna do that. Biden would. Hell Bernie would. Not sure about Beto yet but it’s certainly possible.

Do the dems want to win or do they want to try to make history, again. And then sit back and watch that fat orange fuck screw up the country for another 4 years. We shall see. 

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Js1

Js1 85,104

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, Parliament said:

She's popular in the cities in the southern half of the State.  Fortunately for her, that's plenty of votes to get (re)elected.

Right. Okay. Only popular in the Southern half.

She has won all 3 Senate races by 20+ points.   The most recent Morning Consult Senator Approval poll has her at 58-26.  She's wildly popular in Minnesota.

 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32,699

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Parliament said:

She's popular in the cities in the southern half of the State.  Fortunately for her, that's plenty of votes to get (re)elected.

She won a majority of the counties in the state. As you can see, they were not limited to the southern half of the State.

image.png

 

edit - dammit, got distracted by real life after reading that post and before responding

Edited by Huckleberry
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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

All the dems need to do to win back the White House is get the Midwest Obama/trump voters back in the fold. If that happens even fucked up Florida don’t make a shit. Can even afford to lose Ohio. 

Unfortunately I don’t think Kamala Harris is gonna do that. Biden would. Hell Bernie would. Not sure about Beto yet but it’s certainly possible.

Do the dems want to win or do they want to try to make history, again. And then sit back and watch that fat orange fuck screw up the country for another 4 years. We shall see. 

Sherrod Brown would stomp Trump, imo.  

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swraith

swraith 336

Posted
Posted (edited)

jJ61o.png

 

I think Trump runs again in 2020 and wins the GOP primary with ease.  No idea who the Dem candidate will be.  Based on a generic Dem candidate, this is the baseline I would start with.  Not a lot of margin for the Dems to fuck around, which is depressing.

 

Edited by swraith
image embed
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,416

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Trump's policies will have fucked up enough farmers and rust belt economies to flip an Iowa or a Wisconsin.   Not sure about Maine being blue though

Wisconsin already did flip though.  And that Foxconn albatross will still be there in 2020 and for many years to come. 

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, swraith said:

jJ61o.png

 

I think Trump runs again in 2020 and wins the GOP primary with ease.  No idea who the Dem candidate will be.  Based on a generic Dem candidate, this is the baseline I would start with.  Not a lot of margin for the Dems to fuck around, which is depressing.

 

Saw some dem strategist talking about the rightward movement of Florida.  Said that if the dems win Florida in 2020 it means the election was a blowout anyway.  It won’t be a deciding state anymore.  

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3,903

Posted
Posted

Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania are the key to the map for the Dems, IMO.  They all came back blue these midterms after staying home for Hillary.  Maine, North Carolina, Arizona and maybe Iowa should be on the want list.  Georgia, Utah, and Texas should be L-T goals to make inroads.  Ohio and Florida have been teases lately.  Ohio particularly seems to be going very red.  I say fuck em'.  If you could flip NC and Arizona, there's your Florida or Ohio trade off.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12,271

Posted
Posted

How about this for a 2020 campaign slogan -

short version:

”Restore America’s Dignity.

long version:

“America has always been great, it’s time to Restore America’s Dignity.”

keepin it real version:

”America has always been great you stupid fat orange motherfucker! Now get the fuck out of the White House so we can

Restore America’s Dignity.”

Thoughts? 

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4,378

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania are the key to the map for the Dems, IMO.  They all came back blue these midterms after staying home for Hillary.  Maine, North Carolina, Arizona and maybe Iowa should be on the want list.  Georgia, Utah, and Texas should be L-T goals to make inroads.  Ohio and Florida have been teases lately.  Ohio particularly seems to be going very red.  I say fuck em'.  If you could flip NC and Arizona, there's your Florida or Ohio trade off.

For sure, the Dem nominee needs to spend most of their time in MI, MN, PA, and WI with a dash of OH, FL, and NC thrown in.  None of the dumbass Hillary strategy of trying to make Texas closer and taking the Midwest for granted.

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Lucid

Lucid 3

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

How about this for a 2020 campaign slogan -

short version:

”Restore America’s Dignity.

long version:

“America has always been great, it’s time to Restore America’s Dignity.”

keepin it real version:

”America has always been great you stupid fat orange motherfucker! Now get the fuck out of the White House so we can

Restore America’s Dignity.”

Thoughts? 

Sounds good as long as you don't think about it for more than 2 seconds. You'll go far in politics my boy.

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

For sure, the Dem nominee needs to spend most of their time in MI, MN, PA, and WI with a dash of OH, FL, and NC thrown in.  None of the dumbass Hillary strategy of trying to make Texas closer and taking the Midwest for granted.

If Beto wins the nomination he won't be able to help himself as far as campaigning Texas.

Some states will get extra presidential attention because of Senate races. Maine, Colorado, and Arizona most importantly. But depending on matchup, Iowa, Kansas (open seat?), North Carolina, and Georgia (Abrams?). There are other states that could have interesting Senate races, including Texas (Beto?),  Oklahoma (open seat?), West Virginia (Ojeda), Alaska (Kavanaugh fallout).

The Senate race makes it a broader map.

 

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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 670

Posted
Posted
On 11/8/2018 at 2:55 PM, phdhorn said:

He would have tons of work to do.  He got a lot of media publicity nationally, but most Americans really didn't pay attention to him outside of Texas - he''s not nearly as well known as you'd think.  This is why it's rare for a President to not have been a Senator, governor, or well-known military hero.  Representatives don't nearly have that exposure.  You could probably easily rattle off 30 U.S. Senators, but reps?  I doubt you would know 10 beyond the leadership holders.  That's Beto's problem.  Then you have to get people to support you and warm up to you.  A Senator or Governor already has that network and tons and tons of fundraising ability.  Yeah Beto made a huge bank in Texas, but the great majority of that was from in-state donors (Cruz, on the other hand, having national exposure, had a ton of $$$ from outside of Texas).

Not saying he couldn't do it, but he'd have to get a lot of things happen for him.  Even a big state like Texas is nothing compared to the problem of getting yourself out there in a national campaign.  The other thing I think he'd have to do is go back to what he did before he was shown as losing, and therefore go a little negative, which honestly isn't a good look for him.  He could be that under-50 "unity" candidate that brings in enough Indies to make differences in the Rust Belt states if he sticks to a populist, working class message.  Clinton won those and won himself a Presidency; his wife was 180 degrees perceived otherwise (as a liberal elitist) and lost them.  

If he goes back to a more positive message he's got the youth and down-home charm to maybe make some noise.  But this election shouldn't fool anyone... he's much, much further away from being a national name than it might seem.  But in today's social media world, it might not take too long.

Sure, he couldn't run for president today. Luckily for him, there's a whole primary season for him to build his name. He generated a ton of nationwide buzz on the Left during his run for the senate, and those people will show up to vote for him in the primary and spread the word to those who aren't yet familiar.

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Tuco

Tuco 5,076

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Posted
He would have tons of work to do.  He got a lot of media publicity nationally, but most Americans really didn't pay attention to him outside of Texas - he''s not nearly as well known as you'd think....Yeah Beto made a huge bank in Texas, but the great majority of that was from in-state donors (Cruz, on the other hand, having national exposure, had a ton of $$$ from outside of Texas).


People in Nebraska certainly are familiar with him and he certainly got a shit ton of small donations from out of state. That video on explaining the flag protests went viral. And that’s a good example of why progressives love him: he is able to communicate progressive positions in logical, compassionate ways that don’t sound insincere or peachy. I think he’d do well in the primaries. I don’t know if that’s a great thing as I’d like to see more importance placed on experience, but he’d certainly have a decent shot.

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861

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Posted

He's going to be tough to beat in 2020.  He gets a ton of free electoral votes.  He starts off with about 193 votes assuming he gets the following states.

 

Alabama

Alaska

Arkansas

Georgia

Idaho

Indiana

Kansas

Kentucky

Louisiana

Mississippi

Missouri

Montana

Nebraska (at-lg)

Nebraska, 1st

Nebraska, 2nd

Nebraska, 3rd

North Carolina

North Dakota

Ohio

Oklahoma

South Carolina

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

Utah

West Virginia

Wisconsin

Wyoming

 

 

Iowa, Midwest states, Florida, Arizona, Maine, NH, are going to be the answer.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,416

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Posted
7 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

He's going to be tough to beat in 2020.  He gets a ton of free electoral votes.  He starts off with about 193 votes assuming he gets the following states.

 

Alabama

Alaska

Arkansas

Georgia

Idaho

Indiana

Kansas

Kentucky

Louisiana

Mississippi

Missouri

Montana

Nebraska (at-lg)

Nebraska, 1st

Nebraska, 2nd

Nebraska, 3rd

North Carolina

North Dakota

Ohio

Oklahoma

South Carolina

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

Utah

West Virginia

Wisconsin

Wyoming

Iowa, Midwest states, Florida, Arizona, Maine, NH, are going to be the answer.

He ain't winning without Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, and toss in Arizona.

There's just no path without those states.

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861

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Posted
15 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

He ain't winning without Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, and toss in Arizona.

There's just no path without those states.

You right.  I took Wisconsin out of the sum to get to 193 but it got left in my list of states he'd auto get.

 

Still though, I don't think its foregone he loses the midwest.  I think everyone knows the presidency goes through there and that is where he'll be focusing his rallies and love the next two years.

 

 

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Tuco

Tuco 5,076

Posted
Posted
On 11/14/2018 at 4:10 PM, babysdaddy said:

so who are the 8% of Dems that want him re-elected???

My guess is Dems that are only Dems because they are pro-union.  It's a segment of the Dem coalition which has largely been ignored since (and including) Clinton, but really wasn't courted by Republicans until Trump. Trade wars and immigration restriction speaks to them, and most of them don't give a shit about gun control or gay marriage.  I think many of them are still in the Dem camp on local elections, but the Dems have offered them little on the national front.  It's difficult to sell something as indirect as judge appointments, even if they are important.  

As someone how has worked as "management" around unions a good part of my adult life, I am fairly ambivalent about them.  But if the Dems are going to need to push left for greater protections for them, I'm okay with that.  

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hpslugga

hpslugga 4,044

Posted
Posted
On 11/8/2018 at 12:51 PM, Cheeseweasel said:

That being said, the Dems will probably nominate someone from California or Mass who is left of Bernie.

Based on what? They railroaded him for a center-right corporatist. You really think that they'd railroad him again for someone who's on the complete opposite end? That's ludicrous.

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14,504

Posted
Posted
On 11/14/2018 at 8:47 PM, Pancho Negro said:

 

If Beto runs, he'll win the nomination and then the general in a landslide and everyone in politics knows it.  He'd win 40 states in the general against Trump.  The only Trump states would be the hard core states like Oklahoma and Idaho.

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