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2020 Presidential Election

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted
Just now, David Dennison said:

He's a young boomer/old Gen Xer, depending on whose definition of those respective generations you use.

I'm claiming Barry for Gen X.

Fight me.

He graduated high school in the 70s. He is entirely culturally outside Gen X whose wheelhouse coming of age era was the 80s. 

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18655

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Just now, FondrenRoad said:

21 wasnt a big deal back then. Drinking age was 18 in Hawaii and 19 in Illinois. 

Barack Obama is a borderline case for sure. I'm squarely in Gen X and I think he has a lot more in common with me from a cultural standpoint than he does with Bill Clinton.

Calling anyone a boomer is an insult.

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted
Just now, David Dennison said:

Barack Obama is a borderline case for sure. I'm squarely in Gen X and I think he has a lot more in common with me from a cultural standpoint than he does with Bill Clinton.

Calling anyone a boomer is an insult.

Thats cuz Bill Clinton was born in the first Boomer year. Same year as W and Trump.  He is far more borderline Silent generation than Obama is Gen X. 

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
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Just now, David Dennison said:

Bill Clinton is the epitome of the baby boomer generation.

While he may have had some experiences later in life than most, he isn't. He was the old man hanging out past his prime. Really, he is the exact same age as W and Trump. Do you think W and Trump were doing it up summer of love style?

Obama experienced neither the earlier or later Gen X cultural experiences. Its fine. Create a new boomer-gen x cohort like xennials between Gen X-millenials and throw Obama into it. But when he is jamming to post Beatles and disco in his formative years, I dont see how that isnt firmly Boomer. 

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18655

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3 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

While he may have had some experiences later in life than most, he isn't. He was the old man hanging out past his prime. Really, he is the exact same age as W and Trump. Do you think W and Trump were doing it up summer of love style?

Obama experienced neither the earlier or later Gen X cultural experiences. Its fine. Create a new boomer-gen x cohort like xennials between Gen X-millenials and throw Obama into it. But when he is jamming to post Beatles and disco in his formative years, I dont see how that isnt firmly Boomer. 

Boomers are way more than the summer of love. All three of those men, Bush, Clinton, and Trump couldn't be more boomer if they tried: selfish, privileged, entitled . . . you name it, they embody the archetype.

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softlynow

softlynow 1783

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Dems got almost 50% of the congressional votes in North Carolina. Obama won it in ‘08 and nearly did again in ‘12. That’s gettable with a candidate that excites the base.

Georgia is now a toss up and shenanigans there this year only get folks fired up.

It’s quite silly to think Wisconsin is a safe GOP state.

The Dem path is much easier than many think. And that’s why they should aim to first turn out the progressives and minorities and only then throw a bone to centrists like me. Kamala/Beto. 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, softlynow said:

Dems got almost 50% of the congressional votes in North Carolina. Obama won it in ‘08 and nearly did again in ‘12. That’s gettable with a candidate that excites the base.

Georgia is now a toss up and shenanigans there this year only get folks fired up.

It’s quite silly to think Wisconsin is a safe GOP state.

The Dem path is much easier than many think. And that’s why they should aim to first turn out the progressives and minorities and only then throw a bone to centrists like me. Kamala/Beto. 

Is there a path to 270 without the rust belt? To me the electoral math shows that as the rust belt goes, the presidency will go, regardless of AZ or NC, at least as far as I can tell. If you approach the election with "getting Trump out" as your #1 priority over all else, as it should be, then shouldn't the #1 criteria for a candidate be "who can win the rust belt"?

IMO that's the most important criteria - which candidate can win MI/PA/WI. To me that's Biden, despite his flaws. I believe he wins those states fairly easily, and thus wins the election. It's definitely not a coastal democrat like Harris. That's the exact type of candidate that will lose that area of the country. JMHO. Is it fair - probably not. But it's realpolitik and that's all that matters right now. I think Beto could do it too - I actually think he could dominate the electoral map if he cleans up his non-stump public speaking (IE debates) just a bit.

Genuinely asking though. Is there a path to 270 without the rust belt, for either side? And I don't mean "well they could win NC" type paths - because it seems that if the candidate wins NC, they'll already have the presidency in the bag in a rout.

Edited by BradInATX
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softlynow

softlynow 1783

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Posted
1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

Is there a path to 270 without the rust belt? To me the electoral math shows that as the rust belt goes, the presidency will go, regardless of AZ or NC, at least as far as I can tell. If you approach the election with "getting Trump out" as your #1 priority over all else, as it should be, then shouldn't the #1 criteria for a candidate be "who can win the rust belt"?

IMO that's the most important criteria - which candidate can win MI/PA/WI. To me that's Biden, despite his flaws. I believe he wins those states fairly easily, and thus wins the election. It's definitely not a coastal democrat like Harris. That's the exact type of candidate that will lose that area of the country. JMHO. Is it fair - probably not. But it's realpolitik and that's all that matters right now. I think Beto could do it too - I actually think he could dominate the electoral map if he cleans up his non-stump public speaking (IE debates) just a bit.

Genuinely asking though. Is there a path to 270 without the rust belt, for either side? And I don't mean "well they could win NC" type paths - because it seems that if the candidate wins NC, they'll already have the presidency in the bag in a rout.

It’s pretty simple. You do what Hillary didn’t: have an economic message that wins back Obama voters who defected in ‘16.

A centrist neoliberal message won’t cut it this time. You need to offer what Pubs will not, a fucking hand up. As I said above you also need to get activists wet for the candidate. The best path there is with a candidate like KH who pairs hints of a lefty populism (critical of TPP for lacking worker protections) with the obvious ceiling-breaking GOTV-worker appeal.

Clinton didn’t lose because of racism or sexism. She lost because of many other factors, and one of them was she forgot to fondle the giblets of all of her base. You want to convince bubba in the Midwest that the wall won’t fix their Chevy or keep the lights on? Then offer some real redistribution from the billionaires raping middle America by shutting down mom and pop shops and outsourcing/automating their jobs away. You want to re-convince them that free trade makes more people better off? Give them a reason for the buy-in.

Simply putting up the old white guy won’t fully realize Dem potential in ‘20. He may draw a few white former union workers back, but the base will be deflated. He may win, but it will be closer than necessary with him. 

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kibbles

kibbles 70

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Posted
10 hours ago, David Dennison said:

He's a young boomer/old Gen Xer, depending on whose definition of those respective generations you use.

I'm claiming Barry for Gen X.

Fight me.

Fight you where.   6'1 210 pounds.   I'll cut down to 170 if you are small

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14504

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Trump barely won PA, MI, and WI and that was against the worst candidate in modern history.  Assuming the Dems offer up a serviceable candidate, he's not winning them again.

Meanwhile, other states are starting to be in play.  From now on, the entire election won't hang on Ohio (the Florida of the Midwest).

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G650

G650 14104

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Posted
18 hours ago, David Dennison said:

He's a young boomer/old Gen Xer, depending on whose definition of those respective generations you use.

I'm claiming Barry for Gen X.

Fight me.

Happily. Obama is no Gen X'er by any stretch.

 

Gen X is the only legitimate group of adults that exists right now, so y'all better pray for us to be in charge.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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6 minutes ago, ryskey said:

The debate between progressive Bernie-esque Dems and Centrist establishment Dems resulted in a pretty resounding victory for the Centrists.

Best case scenario is a candidate that bridges the gap between the Bernie Bros and Hillary centrists.   It can be done. 

I honestly think specific policy platforms and ideologies aren’t going to factor into the 2020 race. 

This one is going to be about the candidate that best generates the feels with their messaging and appeals to the widest audience.  

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45492

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17 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Best case scenario is a candidate that bridges the gap between the Bernie Bros and Hillary centrists.   It can be done. 

I honestly think specific policy platforms and ideologies aren’t going to factor into the 2020 race. 

This one is going to be about the candidate that best generates the feels with their messaging and appeals to the widest audience.  

Which to me favors Beto, but I don't know if he has the chops to win a retard debate against dotus.

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babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2718

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Bernie bros ain't sitting this one out and sure as shit aren't going to vote for Trump over whoever the nominee is.  If the Dems want to win just nominate someone who isn't a total hardcore lefty and you'll pull votes from everywhere.  It really is that simple.  If they want to make it close or give another 4 fucking years to Don, then nominate Warren.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45492

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43 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Any Dem will win the debates. Hillary won them handily. The debates don't even matter. Beto's GOTV game is what the Dems need. 

A normal debate where facts and truth matter, sure.  But in a retard debate you have to be able to insult and name call, which Beto doesn't do.  

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45492

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4 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

He’d say Pocahontas.  63,000,000 would squeal “got heeeeem!” (Her) and we’d go to bed.  That ain’t worth middle dollar. 

Yep.  What I really want, no matter who it ends up being (and assuming this fucker isn't already removed from office and/or dead), is for them to ignore him.  Stand there at the podium and answer questions from the audience and moderator, but don't respond to anything he says.  Literally act like he is invisible.  

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89416

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Posted
5 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

The Dems are going to nominate Joe. 20 women are going to come out and talk about how creepy he is. Trump will win re-election.

LOL

GOP would have found these women in 2008.

and even if they didn’t find them in 2008, if any existed, we would hear about it over the next year, just to make sure he never gets close to a primary. 

Won’t matter.  He and his family and friends are going to have a rough 2019 from the very-public hearings and investigations.   He ain’t winning P.A/WI/MI/AZ, and there’s no where else to make up those electoral votes.  

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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5 hours ago, ryskey said:

https://www.intelligencesquaredus.org/debates/progressive-populism-will-save-democratic-party#vote

Excellent debate on which path Dems should go if the goal is to win in 2020.

The debate between progressive Bernie-esque Dems and Centrist establishment Dems resulted in a pretty resounding victory for the Centrists.

Yes yes this is relevant to the American electorate. Mhmmm

*turns the channel to watch a sitting US President call a Congressman "Schitt"*

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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Posted
1 hour ago, RayDog said:

Beto needs a political insider as a vp, preferably a senator. And it would not hurt if it is someone from the Midwest. Sherrod Brown?

 

Better yet, Klobuchar.

I don’t get this calculation in today’s political climate.  IMO you need a non-polarizing energizer and campaigner as VP that will get voters motivated. 

 

What does a political insider get you on the ticket that you couldn’t get by appointment in the cabinet? 

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