2018 Texas Statewide Election Results

[WBT 20979]

	R		D		Margin
US Senate	Cruz	50.9	O'Rourke	48.3	2.6
Governor	Abbot	55.9	Valdez	42.5	13.4
Lt Governor	Patrick	51.3	Collier	46.4	4.9
Land Commissioner	Bush	53.7	Suazo	43.1	10.6
Agricultural Commissioner	Miller	51.3	Olson	46.4	4.9
AG	Paxton	50.6	Nelson	47	3.6
Comptroller	Hegar	53.2	Chevalier	43.4	9.8
RR Commissioner	Craddick	53.2	McAllen	43.9	9.3

 

To me it looks like there is a baseline R advantage of 9-10 points.  The lower profile races were the candidates are not as well known (Land Commissioner, Comptroller, RR Commissioner) all well within a 53-54 to 43-44 band.  Meanwhile, I'd say that people split their ticket to vote for Abbot and obviously O'Rourke and to vote against Patrick (general jackassery), Miller (ethics/buffoonery), and Paxton (indictment).  I know this board hates Cruz but to me the latter three are a bigger embarrassment to the state.  Would they have been vulnerable if the Dems had been able to generate even 10% of the interest/passion in these races that Beto did? 

In 2014, no statewide election was closer than 20 points.  Obviously Trump also deserves a huge amount of credit for closing the gap.

Edited November 9, 2018 by WBT

[bad_teammate 13524]

Biggest margin is 13%... wow.

[gmr548 16701]

Trump has accelerated the trend, no doubt about that. Beto also added gasoline to the fire. The contested statewide judicial elections - I believe it was Brisket that correctly pointed out that these are likely the most purely partisan races out there due to most people having basically no clue about the candidates - ranged from 7-9 as well, so I think the partisan lean can be reasonably assessed at 7-10. That is a huge shift in four years. Trump isn't going anywhere for another two years, young and educated out of state folks gonna keep moving here, boomers - particularly rural ones - are going to start dying soon, whitey will only make up less of the electorate going forward... Writing is on the wall.

Edited November 9, 2018 by gmr548

[Telegraph_it 3379]

11 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

whitey

Is that a term for a person preventing progress? 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13731]

When I get some time I want to analyze the county data comparing 2016 and 18.  Not only see turnout percentage but what is happening with total votes and registered counts.  My thought is that the smaller counties are getting smaller while the larger counties are getting larger.  

Im still surprised that Tarrant and Williamson went blue.  What are the largest red cities now?  Plano or Lubbock?

[RayDog 682]

9 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

When I get some time I want to analyze the county data comparing 2016 and 18.  Not only see turnout percentage but what is happening with total votes and registered counts.  My thought is that the smaller counties are getting smaller while the larger counties are getting larger.  

Im still surprised that Tarrant and Williamson went blue.  What are the largest red cities now?  Plano or Lubbock?

I predicted Williamson and Tarrant would flip due to demographic trends. I had Collin at 52%+R, which was albout right. They are next largest and could flip in 2020. 

Denton and Montgomery are the next 2 of the largest 11 counties. Denton should flip by 2024 possibly sooner, while Montgomery is many years away if ever.

[Pescado_Rojo 19587]

I've been looking for a map of how the votes broke for Tx31 between Williamson and Bell counties. My feeling is Hegar won Wilco by a slim margin and lost Bell by a larger margin but haven't been able to confirm

[Js1 87185]

1 minute ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I've been looking for a map of how the votes broke for Tx31 between Williamson and Bell counties. My feeling is Hegar won Wilco by a slim margin and lost Bell by a larger margin but haven't been able to confirm

Williamson - Hegar won it 49.86 - 48.26 (102,796 to 99,481)

Bell - Carter won it 56.83 - 41.81 (44,912 to 33,047)

[RayDog 682]

My estimate ( pre Kavanaugh hearing) was Beto/Hegar winning Wilco by 8000 to 9000, but losing Bell by around 6000.

If Hegar or someone who is an equally good candidate runs in 2020 the demographic shifts should put a Democrat over the top in that district.

Edited November 9, 2018 by RayDog

[Pescado_Rojo 19587]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Williamson - Hegar won it 49.86 - 48.26 (102,796 to 99,481)

Bell - Carter won it 56.83 - 41.81 (44,912 to 33,047)

That's about what I figured, thanks

[Dahobbs 18324]

1 hour ago, RayDog said:

I predicted Williamson and Tarrant would flip due to demographic trends. I had Collin at 52%+R, which was albout right. They are next largest and could flip in 2020. 

Denton and Montgomery are the next 2 of the largest 11 counties. Denton should flip by 2024 possibly sooner, while Montgomery is many years away if ever.

I'd be curious how your estimates compared with reality. I know you had Beto winning with the turnout we had. What went differently from your predictions?

[Js1 87185]

3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I'd be curious how your estimates compared with reality. I know you had Beto winning with the turnout we had. What went differently from your predictions?

Probably that Beto underperformed Hillary in the Valley and Cruz overperformed Trump in the rural counties. 

[RayDog 682]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Probably that Beto underperformed Hillary in the Valley and Cruz overperformed Trump in the rural counties. 

That is what happened. That and Beto generally underperformed on estimates because I based them on presidential years, since I realized 2014 was an even worse comparison 

Cruz basically had 200,000 more rural votes than I expected, and Beto had maybe 150,000 less in the larger counties than I expected. I won't know for sure until I look at the final county by county numbers.

If this same race happens with 2020 demographics in a presidential year, Beto wins. Not that that means anything.

 

 

[Js1 87185]

Some of these crazies getting they asses beat gives me hope for the Texas House, as enough GOP members are close to consolidating around Dennis Bonnen - a Straus lieutenant.  Anyone whose even partially Straus will keep the crazy out of the House and confined to Dan Patrick's Potty Playpen. of the Senate

Edited November 12, 2018 by Js1

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3873]

25 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Some of these crazies getting they asses beat gives me hope for the Texas House, as enough GOP members are close to consolidating around Dennis Bonnen - a Straus lieutenant.  Anyone whose even partially Straus will keep the crazy out of the House and confined to Dan Patrick's Potty Playpen. of the Senate

this is excellent news.  I saw Patrick's quote the other day saying Straus "wasn't much of a Republican."  What a piece of shit.

[Js1 87185]

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Some of these crazies getting they asses beat gives me hope for the Texas House, as enough GOP members are close to consolidating around Dennis Bonnen - a Straus lieutenant.  Anyone whose even partially Straus will keep the crazy out of the House and confined to Dan Patrick's Potty Playpen. of the Senate

I don’t know much about Texas politics. Didn’t the tea party rig it to where the democrats no longer have a vote in speaker elections?

would love to see a moderate republican speaker. It would keep us from crazy land.

[Brisketexan 106900]

Looks like Bonnen has the votes for speaker.

[gmr548 16701]

I don’t know much about Texas politics. Didn’t the tea party rig it to where the democrats no longer have a vote in speaker elections?

would love to see a moderate republican speaker. It would keep us from crazy land.

 

The Democrats effectively had no say at 95-55. With that margin cut by more than half to 83-67, and many of the casualties being high profile Freedom Caucus types, it basically ensures a moderate speaker. The Strauss wing of the Republican party has the leverage now - they don't have to play ball with the Tea Party because there are enough Democrats for them to form a sort of coalition with for the Speaker position. In that sense, the Democrats are effectively kingmakers due to the friction on the Republican side. With Bonnen getting support, the Tea Party seems to realize this is a fight they can't win.

 

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

 

 

 

[Js1 87185]

Bonnen is the best case scenario.  He will be Straus-esque.

[relapse98 634]

2 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

this is excellent news.  I saw Patrick's quote the other day saying Straus "wasn't much of a Republican."  What a piece of shit.

That's their standard go to. Don't believe _____ (and that ____ depends on the day and person), then you are just a RINO. Because that's a HUGE insult!

[Js1 87185]

Straus just released a statement.  He's very please it'll be Bonnen. 

Dems pick up 12 seats AND Straus Lite will be the new Speaker. There's hope.  If the fucking TDP hadn't botched that special election, we'd have broken Dan Patrick's supermajority too.  Oh well.

Edited November 12, 2018 by Js1

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

 

The Democrats effectively had no say at 95-55. With that margin cut by more than half to 83-67, and many of the casualties being high profile Freedom Caucus types, it basically ensures a moderate speaker. The Strauss wing of the Republican party has the leverage now - they don't have to play ball with the Tea Party because there are enough Democrats for them to form a sort of coalition with for the Speaker position. In that sense, the Democrats are effectively kingmakers due to the friction on the Republican side. With Bonnen getting support, the Tea Party seems to realize this is a fight they can't win.

 

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

 

 

 

Good.

 

i hope the new speaker tells potty Patrick to shove that bathroom bill up his giant smelly asshole.