NCAA Week 12

[NowThis 931]

SMU +8.5 at home vs. Memphis 

Tenn +5 at home vs. Missouri

thinking about Syracuse +9.5 @ ND ... possible upset.

 

[Wally Pryor 5261]

Vandy -2.5

ND -9.5

[Wally Pryor 5261]

16 hours ago, NowThis said:

SMU +8.5 at home vs. Memphis 

Really like this play. Memphis has sucked on the road this season and SMU is playing much better football.  Excellent ML opportunity here as well.

[AUS-97HORN 11763]

obviously my track record this year sucks, but I really dont know about SMU

SMU didnt cover against UConn last week, which seems kinda nuts considering it was only 19 points and SMU scored  62......   giving up 50.

just doesnt seem like a good play considering that Uconnn managed to score 50 on them and UConn blows donkey nuts.

 

[Wally Pryor 5261]

Citadel +59.5 I annually stalk this play during Bama's bye week and this in the Saban years has been profitable.  Don't have the results in front of me but want to say it's 5-1 over the last 6 years (sacrificial lamb covering).  Saban doesn't run it up in these exhibitions and even more so this season with Bama's Tua / QB situation - he just wants to get out of this game with no one hurt before the Iron Bowl and Georgia. I'm guessing Tua won't even dress for this and Hurts is injured so get QB3 a little time and win this one 45-0. 

May not even play the 1H which is saying something for me. 

Edited November 12, 2018 by Wally Pryor

[AtticusFinch 155]

12 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

Citadel +59.5 I annually stalk this play during Bama's bye week and this in the Saban years has been profitable.  Don't have the results in front of me but want to say it's 5-1 over the last 6 years (sacrificial lamb covering).  Saban doesn't run it up in these exhibitions and even more so this season with Bama's Tua / QB situation - he just wants to get out of this game with no one hurt before the Iron Bowl and Georgia. I'm guessing Tua won't even dress for this and Hurts is injured so get QB3 a little time and win this one 45-0. 

May not even play the 1H which is saying something for me. 

This will be a complete exhibition with all the depth chart getting extensive playing time.  All the top skill players may not play much 

[Wally Pryor 5261]

54 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

obviously my track record this year sucks, but I really dont know about SMU

SMU didnt cover against UConn last week, which seems kinda nuts considering it was only 19 points and SMU scored  62......   giving up 50.

just doesnt seem like a good play considering that Uconnn managed to score 50 on them and UConn blows donkey nuts.

 

Yeah, UConn. Ugh. 

I think SMU will play better at home (see UH game) / also just fading Memphis as a bad road team.   I'll be on this over as well.  Not concerned how high it will be. 

[Wally Pryor 5261]

12 minutes ago, AtticusFinch said:

This will be a complete exhibition with all the depth chart getting extensive playing time.  All the top skill players may not play much 

Even more so with Citadel running the option - lots of cut blocking and the like.  Exactly what you don't want your (good) defenders exposed to. 

[GopherRock 1765]

Syracuse-Notre Dame is at Yankee Stadium in New York, so that explains the number. Weather shouldn't be a problem on the muddy track.

Wazzu -10 at home in the late night game

Piggy +20 at Miss State? Yeah I know Arky stinks but I don't think Miss State should be laying 3 TDs to anyone

SoCal -3.5 at the Rose Bowl

Rice +44 at LSU. See above comment about rent-a-wins 

Liberty +29 at Auburn, only because Auburn has soiled themselves in this spot before.

[Wally Pryor 5261]

Baylor -2  Jumped on WVU last weekend as TCU is done.  Brewer is playing, Baylor at home looking to go bowling.  They have Tech to close out the season in Dallas.  That will be tough so this weekend is Baylor's chance to clinch the bowl berth.    Expect them to be focused against a team in disarray. 

[Xcalibur 546]

3 hours ago, Wally Pryor said:

Baylor -2  Jumped on WVU last weekend as TCU is done.  Brewer is playing, Baylor at home looking to go bowling.  They have Tech to close out the season in Dallas.  That will be tough so this weekend is Baylor's chance to clinch the bowl berth.    Expect them to be focused against a team in disarray. 

I like it.  Tailing.

[LonghornJones 837]

MACtion tonight?

Ohio -3. No justification.

[Wally Pryor 5261]

Didn't realize SMU controls its own destiny to play in the AAC championship. 

[NowThis 931]

Houston tt over 39 at home vs Tulane

SMU tt over 32 at home vs. Memphis

Tenn tt over 25.5 at home vs. Missou

Cincy +7.5 @ UCF 

Syr ND under 65.5 

 

[Wally Pryor 5261]

MId Tenn State +16.5   MTSU has won 6 of  7, pretty decent team.    Kentucky is a fraud with an abysmal offense - averaging 13 ppg over its last 5.   Hell, they may shut out MTSU and still not cover. 

 

 

[Hook1997 5354]

1 hour ago, LonghornJones said:

MACtion tonight?

Ohio -3. No justification.

Buffalo +3 all the way

[Xcalibur 546]

Yeah, I like Buffalo ML myself.  Their QB is really good and they have been destroying teams.  But we'll see.  MAC has been screwy lately.  I didn't think Miami OH was going to punk Ohio either.

[Auto Driller 2505]

I have Buffalo +2.5 and under 66 tonight. No justification.

[NowThis 931]

2 hours ago, Wally Pryor said:

MId Tenn State +16.5   MTSU has won 6 of  7, pretty decent team.    Kentucky is a fraud with an abysmal offense - averaging 13 ppg over its last 5.   Hell, they may shut out MTSU and still not cover. 

 

 

was thinking the same, Kentucky has a hard time scoring over 24.  However, MTSU has been blown out by P5 schools.  

[FartingMonk 3606]

had a really good weekend last week.  This week is going to be light.

3 team parlay

Clemson -28 they're an unstoppable machine

Aggy -16 vs UAB they are just going to outmatch that UAB team.  

OU -over 68 Lincoln Riley is going to shoot his load against Kansas and might cover that number by themselves.  OU's defense can't even derail an Amtrak train

 

The only straight bet that jumped at me was 

Tech -5 watching them the past 3 weeks, they are going to score at will.  Purple wizard is done for.

[LonghornJones 837]

FAU looks good to me tonight, but the line is going the other way (started +2, now +4). ODU had a huge comeback against UNT last week.

[Xcalibur 546]

FAU is terrible though.

[NowThis 931]

3 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

had a really good weekend last week.  This week is going to be light.

3 team parlay

Clemson -28 they're an unstoppable machine

Aggy -16 vs UAB they are just going to outmatch that UAB team.  

OU -over 68 Lincoln Riley is going to shoot his load against Kansas and might cover that number by themselves.  OU's defense can't even derail an Amtrak train

 

The only straight bet that jumped at me was 

Tech -5 watching them the past 3 weeks, they are going to score at will.  Purple wizard is done for.

these look great 

[AUS-97HORN 11763]

tailed several ideas posted already, only added a few of my own- basically jumped on the dog on any lines bigger than 28 that I could bet (no lines avail on the SEC vs FBS games)

 

rice +42   2u

baylor -2   1u

umas +43 1u

kansas +36 .5u

Oregon St +33.5   .5u

Liberty +29   1u

Piggy +21   .5u

Ariz St  ML   .5u

ECU -16.5   1u   ( they are against uconn)

Wisconsin ML   .5u

 

[LonghornJones 837]

1 hour ago, Xcalibur said:

FAU is terrible though.

sooooooooooooo

[Alvin89 108]

Just started betting on a few games for fun but do have one question. Has anyone had any problems cashing a check from Bovada or any of the other gambling sites? Just wondering how that works before I throw more money at it.

[CBT 1282]

You shouldn't have an issue. Sometimes it is written from a foreign bank. And they can put a hold on it before they release the funds. I've deposited 100+ checks from online sports books/poker sites, and I think that has happened twice. If they ever ask you what its for just tell them you do contract work for a international company. 

edit:  I always go in a branch to deposit it, fyi. And the teller almost always has to call over a 'manager' to approve something on their screen. Not sure exactly that it may be besides its just a foreign bank. 

Edited November 15, 2018 by CBT

[NowThis 931]

UH tt over 37.5 at home vs. Tulane

[NowThis 931]

1 hour ago, CBT said:

You shouldn't have an issue. Sometimes it is written from a foreign bank. And they can put a hold on it before they release the funds. I've deposited 100+ checks from online sports books/poker sites, and I think that has happened twice. If they ever ask you what its for just tell them you do contract work for a international company. 

edit:  I always go in a branch to deposit it, fyi. And the teller almost always has to call over a 'manager' to approve something on their screen. Not sure exactly that it may be besides its just a foreign bank. 

damn, post more dude. I get cash on the free Monday withdrawal from 5dimes. 

[CBT 1282]

How does 5dimes transfer?

[NowThis 931]

i've only done cash and get from CVS. Needless to say it's modest amounts. They give a code which is presented to the clerk and the money is then released.  For a big player like you, CVS or such probably won't have over $500 on hand, so you might have to explore other disbursement venues.

[NowThis 931]

Houston 2h tt over 14.5 -115 

[FartingMonk 3606]

Good score.  I did 2nd h UH pk +110

 

 

 

 

I know this isn't NFL, but I took Titans +200 to win AFC south.  Lots of value in that.  

Edited November 16, 2018 by FartingMonk

[Xcalibur 546]

Big on Boise St -20 tonight.

[LonghornJones 837]

That BSU Over looks good too.

[SDG 3319]

My takes so far this weekend (playing with last weekends house money):

 

Boise State -20 (-115)(317) Boise State Broncos @ (318) New Mexico Lobos        1U

SMU +7.5 (-110)(315) Memphis Tigers @ (316) Southern Methodist Mustangs    1U

Washington State -10.5 (-105)(377) Arizona Wildcats @ (378) Washington ST Cougars   1U

Texas -3 (+105)(417) Iowa ST Cyclones @ (418) Texas Longhorns   1U

Oklahoma State (#24) +5 (-110)(389) West Virginia Mountaineers @ (390) Oklahoma State Cowboys   1U

Syracuse (+290)(367) Syracuse Orange @ (368) Notre Dame Fighting Irish           .5U

Syracuse +10 (-110)(367) Syracuse Orange @ (368) Notre Dame Fighting Irish     1U

Cincinnati (+240)(353) Cincinnati University @ (354) Central Florida          .5U

Cincinnati +7 (-105)(353) Cincinnati University @ (354) Central Florida      1U

[CBT 1282]

48 minutes ago, SDG said:

Syracuse +10 (-110)(367) Syracuse Orange @ (368) Notre Dame Fighting Irish     1U

Cincinnati +7 (-105)(353) Cincinnati University @ (354) Central Florida      1U

Like both of these, especially if you can get the hook on them.

Syracuse is top 20 in the country in defensive efficiency. ND's record is inflated because of the competition and winning some close games. Cuse should be able to put up some points. Cuse is also a great dog ATS.

Cincy's defense is playing really well. Cincy runs the ball really well and looks to be peaking. UCF has a had a lot of close games. Looking at common opponents, Cincy is much better. (Yea, I know that's not a great metric.) UCF may feel pressure with gameday in town.

Edited November 16, 2018 by CBT

[po elvis 2070]

it is interesting that Arkansas has played 5 straight home games. and the game before that was neutral site vs aggy. now they have Miss. St. on the road. that might be the one thing keeping me from loving them this week. but then again sometimes when you are struggling it is nice to get away from your home crowd.

I really like UAB +17 against aggy. aggy isn't that great against marginal teams that have good defenses.

[Wally Pryor 5261]

I don't see a Bama 1H line being offered.  I hopped on the big # at 5 Dimes when it was released but nothing posted there for the 1H.

[FartingMonk 3606]

nice call on Boise St.  added Texas -2.5 to my list.

[pops 6985]

On Syracuse +10. It's probably just because I think ND is a fraud and I want them to lose, but we will see. 

Also, and I know it goes against every trend, but taking the under 65 in Utah State/Colorado State as a weather play only. It is cold and snowing and supposed to continue to snow throughout the game. Plus Colorado State blows.

[pops 6985]

Sold the hook to get Texas -3 at even money. 

[NowThis 931]

Bama H1 -41.5 exists now

too much IMO 

also seems the H1 for Bama is creeping up to almost 100% of the game line lately (-53), now about 80%.  Previously was about 60%.  Seems Vegas is catching on.

Edited November 17, 2018 by NowThis

[Wally Pryor 5261]

Yep, avoiding Bama 1H after many weeks running.  They'll probably cover anyway.

[SDG 3319]

I took the Bama 1h advice from previous weeks but Im not taking the plunge week.  28 would likely be my limit as there just aren't that many possessions.  

[NowThis 931]

Bama only up 7-0 near the end of Q1. Saban probably sees a military academy and takes it easy on them. 

[pops 6985]

32 minutes ago, NowThis said:

Bama only up 7-0 near the end of Q1. Saban probably sees a military academy and takes it easy on them. 

Yep overreaction from Vegas on the 1h line. I went to jump on citadel 1h but didn't realize the game was so early. Missed it.

I'm assuming bama is playing everyone that hasn't seen the field since high school. 

[SDG 3319]

Maybe Sabin took Citadel in the 1h?  

 

 

[pops 6985]

My book has bama -27.5 2h. Thoughts?  I haven't watched a single snap

[SDG 3319]

1 minute ago, pops said:

My book has bama -27.5 2h. Thoughts?  I haven't watched a single snap

There aren't many possessions in these games (triple options).  Alabama is gonna come out and score, but unless Cit has a bunch of turnovers that might be a big ask.