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Opening coin toss -- Defer or take the ball?

Horndog

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Horndog

Horndog 2228

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It seems that the accepted coaching wisdom  --  at least at Texas  -- is to defer if you win the opening coin toss.  I guess the theory is that it gives you the chance to have back-to-back possessions at the end of the first half and the start of the second.  But each possession should have the same value, no matter when they happen, with the exception of limited-time possessions at the end of a half.  If a team receives the opening kickoff, it is guaranteed an equal number of meaningful possessions during the game, and has a reasonable chance to get one more possession.  By deferring, you are limiting yourself to an equal number of possessions at best.   In games where the teams are relatively even, or where the teams both have good offenses, one extra possession may mean the difference in the game.  If a team has a very good defense, it makes sense to defer because there is a good chance to force a punt and get good field position for your first drive.  That doesn't really apply in the Big 12, and certainly not to Texas this year.  Here are the opening drives for our games this year (without actually knowing who won the toss):

 TEAM WITH BALL FIRST              RESULT

1. Maryland                                        TD

2. Tulsa                                               Int.

3. USC                                                TD

4. TCU                                                 FG

5. Texas (K St. game)                      Punt

6. OU                                                  TD

7. Texas (Baylor game)                   FG

8. Ok. St.                                            TD

9. WVa                                                FG

10. Tx. Tech                                       TD

So, in ten games, Texas has kicked off in 8 of them, resulting in 41 points, with only one stop.  Texas has received the kickoff in 2 games, resulting in 3 points.  Ok. St. had 13 possessions to our 12 (excluding a drive of about a minute to end the firs half), and we lost by 3 points.  In the WVa game, they had 10 possessions to our 9, again excluding possessions of a few seconds at the end of each half, and we lost by 1.  

This is magnified in the OU series.  Here are the opening drives in the last 10 games:

2009- OU     FG

2010- OU     TD

2011- OU     FG

2012- OU     TD

2013- TX     FG

2014- TX     FG

2015- OU     Punt

2016- OU     Missed FG

2017- TX     Punt

2018- OU     TD

OU has gotten the ball first 7 times; TX 3.  On those drives, OU has scored 5 times with a missed FG and one punt, for a total of 26 points.  (In 2012 the extra point was blocked.)  TX has 2 FG's and a punt on its game-opening drives.  

Are we slightly reducing our chances of winning by deferring on the coin toss?  We are almost always starting games behind after the opening drive.  And it is a reasonable argument that the losses to Ok. St. and WVa are attributable to having one less possession.

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Nueces River Rat

Nueces River Rat 5539

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Proves the point.

Our defense is shit.

Thank god our offense is doing it's job our we would be 0-10 right now.  

I always been of the way of thinking that if your D is good and you feel confident  your  D can make a stop on the first drive, go ahead and defer to the second half.   A good D can set the tone for the entire game by  making the first series  a three and out and get the crowd into it.  But when you are shit on D, it becomes a who gives a F--- moment.  Getting the ball first and chewing some clock and scoring something might be the desired path?  

Edited by Nueces River Rat
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pacman

pacman 7371

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Honestly, I believe it speaks to the mentality of the offensive coaching staff. They prefer to see what the other team is offering on defense in the first half and then adjust at halftime. They want the ball first on offense in the second half to take advantage of the defense right off the bat, to set the tone.

Edited by pacman
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kopp0e

kopp0e 1135

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2 minutes ago, NBMisha said:

If the D can't defend, it's worse than a who gives a fuck moment.  It is a poor decision.

With this conclusion, it would seem better to receive the ball, but it was an effective tactic last Saturday against Tech, so there's that...

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MonkeyDoughnut

MonkeyDoughnut 10356

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There is no "extra possession". Each team gets ball first in one half.  My assumption would be deferring causes the other teams offense to have to go a lot further during a time of trying to figure out the defense and then when you get ball first in 2nd half you already kinda know what you are facing.

 

I would always defer.

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TrashMaster G

TrashMaster G 17599

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Our coaching staff is going with conventional wisdom and deferring when we win the toss.  And conventional wisdom is fine, in most cases.

When your defense consistently plays pee-wee level football to start games, you need to throw conventional wisdom out the window.  You need to be smarter than that and realize that anything you do to keep your offense on the field more is the right choice.

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pacman

pacman 7371

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   doesn't always come to fruition, but a little better outcome than the D

TEAM W/BALL FIRST (2nd Half)              RESULT

1. Texas                                                          Punt

2. Texas                                                          Punt

3. Texas                                                          TD

4. Texas                                                          Punt

5. KSU                                                              TD

6. Texas                                                           TD

7. Baylor                                                          Punt

8. Texas                                                          Punt

9. Texas                                                           TO on Downs

10. Texas                                                         TD

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Slacks

Slacks 6862

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Further analysis required for me to consider any correlation.

How many times have we won the toss, elected to defer, and lost?

What does the beginning of 2H yield? What does the end of 1H show (scoreboard)?  Some teams(coaches) believe that deferring should net them the final drive of 1H and the first drive of 2H. I don't know if they're correct or not. In an evenly played game, probably.

Offense has scripted plays. Defense plans on adjusting after first drive = defer to get defense more time to adjust.

First drive of the game doesn't usually determine the game (but is part of the outcome, obviously).

Personally, I don't think it matters unless the weather is bad and you want to kick with the wind in 4Q.

 

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Horndog

Horndog 2228

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2 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

There is no "extra possession". Each team gets ball first in one half. 

Not necessarily true.  There is not always an even number of possessions per half.  If it is an odd number, the team that gets the ball first gets one extra possession for that half.  If a team gets the opening kickoff, it will get at least the same number of possessions in the game, and maybe one more.  The team that kicks off the first half may get the same number of possessions, or it may get one less.  Of course, this does not take into account odd situations like a fumbled return, a recovered onside kick, etc.  

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totallynotabuttpirate

totallynotabuttpirate 5405

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14 minutes ago, pacman said:

   doesn't always come to fruition, but a little better outcome than the D

TEAM W/BALL FIRST (2nd Half)              RESULT

1. Texas                                                          Punt

2. Texas                                                          Punt

3. Texas                                                          TD

4. Texas                                                          Punt

5. KSU                                                              TD

6. Texas                                                           TD

7. Baylor                                                          Punt

8. Texas                                                          Punt

9. Texas                                                           TO on Downs

10. Texas                                                         TD

Perhaps we should defer in both halves ? 

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WBT

WBT 20669

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37 minutes ago, Horndog said:

If a team receives the opening kickoff, it is guaranteed an equal number of meaningful possessions during the game, and has a reasonable chance to get one more possession.  By deferring, you are limiting yourself to an equal number of possessions at best. 

How you figure?

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Mantis Toboggan, MD

Mantis Toboggan, MD 1501

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Not necessarily true.  There is not always an even number of possessions per half.  If it is an odd number, the team that gets the ball first gets one extra possession for that half.  If a team gets the opening kickoff, it will get at least the same number of possessions in the game, and maybe one more.  The team that kicks off the first half may get the same number of possessions, or it may get one less.  Of course, this does not take into account odd situations like a fumbled return, a recovered onside kick, etc.  

 

I think you are missing the point. A team that defers and receives in the second half has an equal chance at an extra possession than the team that receives in the first half.

 

Example:

 

Team A defers. Team B receives the opening kickoff. The first half is played and ends with Team A having the ball. Both teams had an equal number of possessions in that half. In the second half Team A receives and the game happens to end with Team A possessing the ball. In that scenario, Team A had one additional possession despite kicking off to start the game.

 

There are various reasons a team might want to receive to open the game or defer to the second half, but having more possessions isn’t one of them.

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HRSchenker

HRSchenker 2273

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12 minutes ago, TrashMaster G said:

I think we did that once under Charlie.

Yep it was the UCLA game at the death star. I was working night shift so I had the game on radio. Craig Way was so confused then his confusion turned to anger. It was a total coaching failure. How the fuck do you screw up the coin toss?

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South Austin

South Austin 52604

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52 minutes ago, Horndog said:

It seems that the accepted coaching wisdom  --  at least at Texas  -- is to defer if you win the opening coin toss.  I guess the theory is that it gives you the chance to have back-to-back possessions at the end of the first half and the start of the second.  But each possession should have the same value, no matter when they happen, with the exception of limited-time possessions at the end of a half.  If a team receives the opening kickoff, it is guaranteed an equal number of meaningful possessions during the game, and has a reasonable chance to get one more possession.  By deferring, you are limiting yourself to an equal number of possessions at best.   In games where the teams are relatively even, or where the teams both have good offenses, one extra possession may mean the difference in the game.  If a team has a very good defense, it makes sense to defer because there is a good chance to force a punt and get good field position for your first drive.  That doesn't really apply in the Big 12, and certainly not to Texas this year.  Here are the opening drives for our games this year (without actually knowing who won the toss):

 TEAM WITH BALL FIRST              RESULT

1. Maryland                                        TD

2. Tulsa                                               Int.

3. USC                                                TD

4. TCU                                                 FG

5. Texas (K St. game)                      Punt

6. OU                                                  TD

7. Texas (Baylor game)                   FG

8. Ok. St.                                            TD

9. WVa                                                FG

10. Tx. Tech                                       TD

So, in ten games, Texas has kicked off in 8 of them, resulting in 41 points, with only one stop.  Texas has received the kickoff in 2 games, resulting in 3 points.  Ok. St. had 13 possessions to our 12 (excluding a drive of about a minute to end the firs half), and we lost by 3 points.  In the WVa game, they had 10 possessions to our 9, again excluding possessions of a few seconds at the end of each half, and we lost by 1.  

This is magnified in the OU series.  Here are the opening drives in the last 10 games:

2009- OU     FG

2010- OU     TD

2011- OU     FG

2012- OU     TD

2013- TX     FG

2014- TX     FG

2015- OU     Punt

2016- OU     Missed FG

2017- TX     Punt

2018- OU     TD

OU has gotten the ball first 7 times; TX 3.  On those drives, OU has scored 5 times with a missed FG and one punt, for a total of 26 points.  (In 2012 the extra point was blocked.)  TX has 2 FG's and a punt on its game-opening drives.  

Are we slightly reducing our chances of winning by deferring on the coin toss?  We are almost always starting games behind after the opening drive.  And it is a reasonable argument that the losses to Ok. St. and WVa are attributable to having one less possession.

Are you trying to tell us, make no mistake, Todd Orlando fucking sucks?

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Horndog

Horndog 2228

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6 minutes ago, WBT said:

How you figure?

After thinking about it, by using faulty logic.  If there are an odd number of possessions, then one team has one more.  But that is true for both halves, so the team kicking off could get the same number the first half, and one more the second.  It just happened that in the last two losses, Texas had one less possession, and that may have been the deciding factor.  I still think that given the offensive firepower in the Big 12 - or the lack of defense - the better option is to take the ball first.  

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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21888

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33 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

Yep it was the UCLA game at the death star. I was working night shift so I had the game on radio. Craig Way was so confused then his confusion turned to anger. It was a total coaching failure. How the fuck do you screw up the coin toss?

Yeah I was at that game as well.  Texas didn't defer.  They ELECTED to kick.  Which gave UCLA the choice in the 2nd half.  

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9940

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Well, Mensa fucked it up in his own way as well this season when he elected to defer against OSU with both of his starting corners on the bench under suspension (which Scipio pointed out in his game wrap up).

Hey, Tom, you want to minimize your first half defensive possessions there. OSU promptly roasted the replacements.

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ruitxn

ruitxn 298

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1 hour ago, pacman said:

Honestly, I believe it speaks to the mentality of the offensive coaching staff. They prefer to see what the other team is offering on defense in the first half and then adjust at halftime. They want the ball first on offense in the second half to take advantage of the defense right off the bat, to set the tone.

I think this is spot on with the justification for most coaching staffs.  Of course, it still assumes the offense can capitalize on info more than the D.  We seem to play better defense in the 2nd and 3rd. quarters with some adjustments.  Who knows what the hell our defense does in the 4th quarter.

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BigOrange1

BigOrange1 6471

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9 minutes ago, Machinator said:

We should have received to start the OSU game, to reduce the number of defensive possesions we had to play without Davis and Boyd.

We should defer for this upcoming game should we win the toss, to reduce the number of possesions Iowa State will have with David Montgomery.

this is exactly right and i was coming here to post the bolded part.

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Magus Ossis

Magus Ossis 2847

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One could view it through the lens of rests for the defense. Arguably, the defense will be more in need of rest optimiztion in the second half. By deferring, a team opts to lump its short rest afforded by the first offensive possession in with its long rest from the half. Sort of like moving your bye week to the one before Kansas. The theory also has been posited that scoring more sooner puts stress on the opponent and increases the likelihood of victory. This analysis done by an Eagles reporter found a much stronger correlation between scoring more points in the first half and winning than between scoring more in the second half and winning. Of course, that could merely be a function of front runners’ sitting on a cushion and playing ‘not to lose.’ In college, it could also reflect more use of backups with the game in hand. Without applying some aspect of human emotion or frailty, there is not a strong objective reason why one choice should be better. The patriots always defer, though, and if anyone has cracked the moneyball code in football, it is likely Belichick.

tldr: if you aren’t a Mike Leach type who sees exactly why he is dumping it, there is likely little to gain by bucking CW. There is however at least some data to support receiving instead.

 

Edited by Magus Ossis
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Tex Pete

Tex Pete 20484

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All of you can bitch about this, but Herman made it clear after the game Saturday why he is continuing to defer, and it isn't for any of the reasons mentioned above.

Herman said he is deferring to show his confidence in the defense to do their job because "this team will win with defense." It's a psychological thing for Herman. Agree or disagree, but that's why he's doing it.
 

Personally, I disagree that it's a good idea at this point, but whatever.

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totallynotabuttpirate

totallynotabuttpirate 5405

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2 minutes ago, Lou Loomis said:

So... the "definition of insanity" but with really optimistic and nurturing intentions.
 

#OK.Cool.Hook'em.

I don't know, I kinda feel like he's earned some leeway to do something just to make a point. We all would've benched Sam after Maryland and prob last year too. He had a plan for the offense and it's coming together now.

On the off chance he has one for the defense, this would be part of it. I want to win right away too, but he might be looking at the bigger picture.  

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Lou Loomis

Lou Loomis 758

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14 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

I don't know, I kinda feel like he's earned some leeway to do something just to make a point. We all would've benched Sam after Maryland and prob last year too. He had a plan for the offense and it's coming together now.

On the off chance he has one for the defense, this would be part of it. I want to win right away too, but he might be looking at the bigger picture.  

I'm honestly in the "Trust Herm" camp, too. I got to talk to him for half hour or so when he was still at Coog and he genuinely seems to be a believer in the process of building a championship program-- down to the smallest details. He had some line about everyone in the program-- even the ladies who wrap the rubber bands around your season tickets-- need to believe that everything they do, if they do it to the best of the ability, can culminate in a national championship.

The hydration stuff and his general stubbornness seem odd in some ways but I really think he's bought in to "The Process." It's been a fun ride so far. I think things will continue to improve.

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